大模型推理能力

Latent Chain-of-Thought (CoT) internalizes reasoning within continuous hidden states, offering a promising alternative to verbose discrete reasoning traces. However, robust latent reasoning remains difficult because outcome supervision provides weak learning signals and leaves latent trajectories prone to semantic drift. In this work, we analyze Latent CoT from an information-theoretic perspective and identify this failure as a dual collapse: gradient attenuation along the optimization path and representational drift in the latent space. We further decompose process supervision into two complementary dimensions: Trajectory Supervision, which injects dense stepwise reasoning signals, and Space Supervision, which preserves the semantic structure of the latent manifold. Our analysis shows that rigid geometric compression can collapse the reasoning space, whereas generative reconstruction provides a more flexible semantic anchor that better preserves information capacity. To measure these effects, we introduce the Unified Latent Probe (ULP), which quantifies the mutual information between latent trajectories and explicit reasoning steps. Experiments reveal a clear Information-Performance Binding: reasoning accuracy depends on the information fidelity preserved in the latent chain. These findings provide a principled framework for latent reasoning supervision and suggest shifting from geometric imitation toward mutual information maximization. Our code is available at \href{https://github.com/EIT-NLP/Supervision-in-Latent-CoT}{this repository}.

Phenomenological model building has traditionally relied on human reasoning: equations are proposed from theoretical intuition, analogy, or empirical convenience, and only then tested against data. Here we show that this cycle can be recast as an iterative AI reasoning process for dynamical dark energy. Our framework uses a large language model to propose equations of state together with cosmological rationales, grounded by retrieval from the dark-energy literature and refined through autonomous evaluation. Each candidate is embedded in a cosmological model, optimized against observations, and assessed using likelihood performance and theoretical consistency. An independent language-model critic scores the physical motivation, novelty, clarity, stability and implementation validity of both the equation and its rationale, allowing subsequent proposals to evolve jointly in mathematical structure and physical reasoning. Applied to cosmological data combinations including supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and Planck likelihoods, the framework identifies two parameterizations that, to the best of our knowledge, have not previously been explored and that are competitive with established forms. For Pantheon+ supernovae, DESI DR2 baryon acoustic oscillations and the full Planck 2018 temperature, polarization, and lensing likelihoods, the best AI-selected model attains larger Bayesian evidence than the traditional parameterizations considered here by more than one unit. These results show that AI-guided reasoning can complement physical model building by proposing and evaluating interpretable phenomenological parameterizations for dynamical dark energy.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly being used to automate multi-step engineering work flows by interacting with software tools, interpreting intermediate results, and autonomously planning subsequent actions. Power system dynamic studies represent a particularly promising yet largely unexplored application domain for these agents. Unlike static computational tasks, dynamic studies often require more time on model parameter calibration, engineering judgment, and decision making under constrained action spaces. This paper introduces PowerAgentBench-Dyn, a benchmark designed to evaluate Agentic AI systems on power system dynamic-analysis tasks. The benchmark targets problems that cannot be reduced to a single optimization or coding task, but instead require a type of reasoning, tool usage, and iterative experimentation routinely performed by experienced power system engineers. The proposed framework includes two initial benchmark tasks. The first, the Dynamic Model Quality Review Benchmark, evaluates agents' ability to validate and diagnose dynamic models based on model-quality compliance criteria specified by system operators. The second, the Dynamic Security Risk Screening Benchmark, assesses agents' capability to leverage semantic memory and a limited simulation budget to identify, rank, and analyze the most critical short-circuit contingencies from an unseen fault dataset, as well as propose and evaluate possible mitigation measures. For each task, we define the simulation environment, observation and action spaces, and evaluation metrics. The benchmark is reproducible in a metric-based sense: released cases and simulator settings define a deterministic evaluator, while stochastic agent behavior is assessed over repeated runs using success rates and other metrics. The benchmark supports the development of future Agentic AI for power system operation and planning.

Deep research agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in autonomous information gathering and synthesis, yet their training remains constrained by the static nature of simulated environments, the limits of fact-retrieval-only task designs, and the inefficiency of outcome-based reinforcement learning. In this work, we propose MetaResearcher, a novel framework that scales deep research agent training across four synergistic dimensions. First, we introduce an Evolving Virtual World that injects temporal dynamics and adversarial misinformation into the training environment, forcing agents to develop source credibility assessment and temporal conflict resolution skills. Second, we design Discovery-Oriented Tasks -- including hypothesis generation and contradiction resolution -- that transcend simple fact retrieval and push agents toward genuine research behaviors. Third, we propose a Self-Reflective Meta-Reward mechanism within the GRPO framework that jointly optimizes for answer correctness, search path efficiency, reflection depth, and tool call diversity, directly addressing the repetitive action loop problem observed in prior work. Fourth, we introduce a Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Swarm architecture comprising specialized Scout, Filter, and Synthesizer models that learn collaborative research strategies through coordinated reinforcement learning. Built upon the LiteResearcher infrastructure, MetaResearcher requires zero marginal API cost for training while targeting substantial improvements in both benchmark performance (GAIA, Xbench-DS) and epistemic robustness under adversarial conditions. We present the complete framework design, training methodology, and planned experimental validation.

Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) achieves strong performance, yet its black-box nature remains a key roadblock to deployment and scientific diagnosis. Standard interpretability tools, such as Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs), are ill-equipped for NCO, whose decisions are dynamic, state-dependent, and lack proper concept vocabulary definition. To close this gap, we introduce Evolving Programmatic Bottlenecks (EPB), to our knowledge, the first framework for interpreting NCO policies by distilling black-box NCO models into human-readable program portfolios. EPB employs an LLM to autonomously evolve a bank of programs, where each program's per-step action distribution serves as the bottleneck. EPB works through an iterative framework: Block I fixes program bank capacity and introduces a hybrid textual-numerical gradient descent scheme that couples numerical gradients for student router updates and textual gradients for LLM-based program revision; Block II dynamically adapts bank capacity via fault-targeted expansion and redundancy pruning. Extensive experiments demonstrate EPB's effectiveness and broad applicability, where the distilled program portfolios largely match original performance. EPB also reveals that NCO behavior shifts across optimization stages and can be approximated as a composition of classic heuristic variants. Our work advances interpretable NCO and establishes EPB as a promising tool for interpreting sequential decision-making models.

In offline Reinforcement Learning, immediate rewards in logged batch data are often unobserved due to sparse or irregular record-keeping, or censored beyond certain reward values. This issue arises in practical settings, including health care and marketing. We investigate off-policy evaluation (OPE) in finite-horizon Markov decision processes when rewards are missing not at random (MNAR), which breaks ignorability and induces selection bias even after conditioning on states and actions. To address this, we formalize a reward-dependent propensity model and use future states as shadow variables to identify the full-data conditional mean reward. We further introduce a bridge function that recovers the conditional mean reward without explicitly modeling the MNAR mechanism, and estimate it via a min-max procedure to avoid double sampling. Building upon these identification results, we propose an Fitted-Q-Evaluation-style estimator that propagates the recovered rewards while allowing target policies to depend on past missingness indicators. Finally, we establish consistency and finite-sample error bounds for our OPE estimator, and show through experiments the strong performance of our method compared to existing methods on simulated and MIMIC-III Sepsis data.

AI augmentation breaks the accounting link between labor time and productive contribution, yet firms continue to evaluate talent through time-based overhead bundles. This paper develops a forecasting framework for the transition from time-based talent accounting to output-based talent ROI in the human-AI era. The framework centres on Theorem 3 (ROI Inversion at τ*) as the empirical spine, with four mechanism theorems: overhead non-additivity, augmentation-saved-time pathways, innovation-premium amplification, and human-AI dyad attribution uncertainty. Korea's staged 52-hour workweek mandate provides an empirical early-warning case. In a DART panel of 365 listed firms (2,281 firm-year observations), the SG&A-to-revenue ratio rose from 18.26 percent in 2018 to 20.06 percent in 2020, corrected mildly in 2021-2022, and peaked at 20.10 percent in 2024. Under the revenue-percentile cohort proxy, two-way fixed effects (+1.56 pp, p = 0.049), pooled event-study estimates (+4.21 pp at t = +3, p = 0.001), and Callaway-Sant'Anna doubly-robust staggered DiD estimates (+4.51 pp at t = +4) converge on a positive overhead-pressure signature. A 2015-2017 backward extension (224 firms, 601 observations) supplies pre-treatment data, providing evidence against pre-existing upward-trend confounds. We read the Korean evidence not as a direct τ* estimate or a point causal magnitude, but as, to our knowledge, the first empirically documented signature of the pre-τ overhead-pressure regime, where time-based accounting still dominates while AI augmentation and labor-time compression jointly raise overhead. Output-based firms are forecast to outperform time-based peers by 1.5-2.0 percentage points in firm-level TFP growth by 2032. The contribution is a forecasting model and managerial planning tool for the shift to AI-augmented talent ROI accounting.