We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach using a truncated Enriched Dirichlet Process mixture (EDPM) model to estimate natural direct (NDE) and indirect (NIE) effects in causal mediation analyses in the presence of post-treatment confounders. We introduce an efficient cluster reallocation Metropolis-Hasting algorithm to improve mixing in the blocked Gibbs sampler. We implement a one-step posterior correction based on the efficient influence function for our setting. This post-processing step solves a critical problem in Bayesian nonparametrics: how to obtain reliable estimates and posteriors for a specific causal estimand of interest (the NDE and NIE) with excellent frequentist properties, such as correct coverage, from a model designed for complex joint distributions. We conduct simulation studies to assess our method's performance and apply it to evaluate causal mediation effects in a weight management clinical trial.

Subset selection problems as MIPs (Mixed Integer Programs) are NP-hard. For large scale problems, it is infeasible to find global optimal solutions in a reasonable time and good-quality incumbent solutions are sought after with MIP solvers in practice. This paper proposes DASH (Decreasing Active Set Hierarchy) -- a dimensionality reduction method that improves the MIP solver performance for a subclass of best subset selection problems that can be formulated as MIQPs (Mixed Integer Quadratic Programs). We develop and evaluate the performance of DASH in the subset portfolio selection problem with comparison to Gurobi, a commercial MIP solver. In addition to the problem size, the difficulty of a problem is related to the condition number of the covariance matrix and the box constraint on portfolio weights. An extensive set of numerical experiments with varying problem configurations shows that DASH offers consistent and significant improvement of incumbent solutions when the problem is difficult to solve by Gurobi. In particular, the magnitude and duration of improvement by DASH scale with the difficulty of the problem.

The statistical modeling of consensus in Delphi data faces a critical bottleneck: the high dimensionality of questionnaire items relative to the limited sample size of expert panels. This rank deficiency leads traditional latent variable models, such as Principal Component Analysis, to be structurally unstable and prone to overfitting. Addressing this methodological gap, this study proposes a transition from variable-centric covariance models to network-centric connectivity models. By mapping item correlations onto a weighted graph topology, we present a simulation-based benchmark that utilizes community detection algorithms to identify latent thematic structures, effectively addressing the spectral instability and rank deficiency typical of high-dimensional, low-sample-size regimes. The research systematically evaluates the robustness of topological approaches based on structural density, information flow, and spectral partitioning against synthetic datasets designed to replicate the pathological conditions of consensus data, including ordinal scales and systemic noise. The central methodological contribution lies in demonstrating that collinearity among expert judgments - traditionally treated as statistical redundancy to be regularized - can be effectively reinterpreted as a topological signal of cohesion. This framework provides researchers with a structured and automated procedure for dimensionality reduction, ensuring structural stability and psychometric consistency even in small-sample regimes where standard factor analysis breaks down.

The g-formula is a foundational tool for identifying causal effects in observational data. This tool is based on the law of iterated expectation, a key mathematical identity in statistics. However, the notation with which the law of iterated expectation and the g-formula is expressed can be opaque to those with little background in statistics. We provide a primer introducing the law of iterated expectation, the integration notation used to express it, and its role for causal effect identification via the g-formula. Under the assumptions of causal consistency, positivity, and conditional exchangeability, the law of iterated expectation can be rewritten as a causal standardization formula (the g-formula) in two nonparametrically equivalent forms: a non-iterative conditional expectation (NICE) form involving a single weighted average of conditional outcome means, and an iterative conditional expectation (ICE) form involving nested expectations. We illustrate both forms using three progressively complex numerical examples: a time-fixed example with a single binary confounder, a time-fixed example with discrete and continuous confounders, and a time-varying example with two timepoints. We provide clarity on what the law of iterated expectation is, how it is related to the g-formula, and how to gain intuition of its mathematical formulations in actual data examples that can be generalized to a range of settings.

This paper investigates the problem of comparing the location parameters of two shifted exponential models through a novel double sequential sampling framework. The proposed hypothesis testing procedure is developed by controlling the type I error probability at a preassigned level while minimizing a loss function that incorporates both the type II error probability and the associated sampling cost. The corresponding optimal fixed-sample-size expressions are shown to depend on unknown scale parameters, rendering the desired testing accuracies unattainable in practice under fixed-sample designs. To overcome this difficulty, a double sequential sampling procedure is proposed to test the difference between location parameters when the scale parameters are unknown and unequal. The proposed methodology is shown to possess desirable asymptotic properties, including first-order efficiency, second-order efficiency, and second-order risk efficiency. Extensive simulation studies and a real-data application that involves heavy precipitation episodes at meteorological stations demonstrate the practical effectiveness and applicability of the proposed procedure.

In time-to-event analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) derived from the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model is the most commonly used and widely reported measure for assessing treatment effects. However, hazard ratios are non-collapsible due to their inherent conditioning on survival up to each time point. As a result, they are subject to built-in selection bias in the presence of unmeasured heterogeneity arising from omitted important covariates, even when these covariates are independent of the main exposure at baseline, as is the case in randomized controlled trials. This article aims to provide an overview of key findings from the literature on how unobserved heterogeneity, due to omitted covariates that affect the outcome, can bias the estimation of the treatment hazard ratio in standard proportional hazards models, even in randomized trials where treatment is assigned independently of such covariates. Through simulations, we evaluate the extent of bias in the semi-parametric Cox PH model and parametric PH model under various scenarios of unmeasured heterogeneity. We then compare these standard models to alternative approaches that either account for this issue or are considered robust to it. These alternatives include the hazard ratio estimated from frailty models, regression parameters from an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, and survival differences between treatment groups estimated nonparametrically using Kaplan-Meier curves or based on a Cox model with time-dependent effect of the exposure. We illustrate the practical relevance of the explored alternatives through a real data application to a randomized controlled trial from the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG 9202).

Recurrent events or competing risks regression models are often applied in the bio-medical setting and both can be considered as marginal models. In presence of right-censoring, such models need to be adjusted to give consistent estimators. When censoring is administrative, marginal regression models are particularly easy to estimate. However, when censoring is instead acting randomly, inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) adjustments are typically considered to obtain parameter estimates. This technique relies on a censoring-weights adjustment via a correct censoring model, but for administrative censoring the adjustment is done correctly simply by modifying the risk-set. In practice for large central registries or some clinical trials, the administrative censoring time will be known for all subjects, but there will typically also be a proportion of subjects that are censored at random. In this work, we consider two frequently used regression approaches, the Ghosh-Lin model for recurrent events with terminal events and the Fine-Gray model for competing events. For these two settings, when both administrative and random censoring are present, we demonstrate how to obtain correct estimation by dealing with the combination of the two different types of censoring relying on a minimum of modeling assumptions.

Physical activity plays a vital role in human health. Its entire distribution differs among people. Commonly used summary measures cannot describe this distributional pattern. We present a distribution-based analytical approach to describe physical activity by modeling individual-level activity-intensity patterns through hazard functions derived from wrist-worn accelerometer data. We analyzed minute-level Monitor-Independent Movement Summary (MIMS) data of 4297 adults with seven continuous days of device wear from the 2011- 2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We derived a nonparametric activity-intensity hazard using a survival-based approach for each individual on a common intensity grid, treating both the hazard curves from MIMS and their log-transformed MIMS as functional objects. We used functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on both scales of MIMS to characterize dominant modes of variation in activity-intensity distributions. Group-wise mean hazard functions showed little difference at lower intensity levels, while we observed a substantial difference at higher intensity levels. Our results demonstrate that hazard-based functional representations for capturing differences in physical activity intensity distributions across individuals offer a flexible and interpretable way to characterize heterogeneity. This approach works better than mean-based summaries and supports principled comparisons of physical activity patterns across population subgroups.

Large scale genetic datasets often aggregate the total allele counts of distinct genetic markers. Inferring haplotype frequencies (i.e.\ the frequency of multimarker alleles) from these pooled data is a challenge. Previous spatio-temporal modelling in this context has been limited to 3 markers due to the computational cost. In this work, we propose a nearest neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) model to improve scaling with the number of markers and observations. To infer the parameters of our model, we develop a novel sequential Monte Carlo squared algorithm, which uses particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling to mutate the NNGP function values. The latter has a linear cost in the number of observations and the number of NNGPs, and can be applied to a broad range of NNGP models. As a case study, we analyse genetic data relating to antimalarial drug resistance in Africa, and show our scaling results empirically on a 3 and 6 genetic marker dataset.

Large-scale hypothesis testing supports probability claims about individual hypotheses, as in empirical Bayes methods for estimating local false discovery rates. We study how such claims can be interpreted as approximately calibrated forecasts of the null hypothesis, yielding interpretable error probabilities even under model misspecification. Our approach draws conceptual inspiration from probabilistic forecasting but addresses a different challenge: unlike forecasting, where labels are eventually observed, in multiple testing the ground truth is never revealed, so calibration must be assessed stochastically and established indirectly. We address this challenge by constructing a set of pseudo-labels, derived from the spacings of ordered $p$-values, which have the local false discovery rate as their regression target. Our construction unlocks existing tools for assessing and performing post-hoc calibration in multiple testing. Notably, we find on a large-scale empirical survey of published psychology and neuroscience literature that the $q$-value, a popular error measure based on the false discovery rate, can be severely miscalibrated.

Data encountered in practice are frequently contaminated by additive noise, and wavelet shrinkage remains a fundamental tool for recovering underlying signals in nonparametric estimation. Classical procedures such as hard and soft thresholding decide whether to retain a wavelet coefficient almost entirely from its magnitude. Although effective in many settings, these rules can be too rigid for coefficients whose magnitudes fall in an intermediate region where the distinction between signal and noise is uncertain. We propose MLShrink, a two-threshold wavelet denoising procedure that combines wavelet shrinkage with machine learning. Coefficients below a lower threshold are discarded, coefficients above an upper threshold are retained, and coefficients in the intermediate band are classified using local wavelet-domain features. In this way, MLShrink preserves the simplicity of classical thresholding away from the decision boundary while allowing data-adaptive decisions for ambiguous coefficients. The paper also develops a theoretical framework tailored to this architecture. We show that MLShrink is a nonexpansive support-selection rule, derive an oracle-based risk decomposition showing that excess denoising risk is determined by classification errors on the undecided band, and establish an oracle-consistency result under suitable assumptions on classifier performance. Simulation experiments on standard benchmark signals indicate that MLShrink is competitive with several established wavelet shrinkage methods and is especially effective for signals with irregular, edge-rich, or non-smooth structure. These findings suggest that learned decisions on the intermediate threshold band provide a useful and interpretable connection between classical wavelet denoising and modern statistical learning.

We introduce Symmetric CDF Oriented Probability Enhanced (SCOPE) shrinkage, a unified family of sign-preserving shrinkage rules constructed from centered cumulative distribution functions of symmetric unimodal distributions. The proposed framework generates a broad class of attenuation profiles that interpolate between strong local shrinkage near zero and asymptotically unbiased behavior in the tails. A general formulation is developed that separates scale and shape effects through two interpretable parameters, allowing effective threshold location and transition sharpness to be controlled independently. Under explicit regularity assumptions, structural properties of SCOPE shrinkage are established, including oddness, monotonicity, continuity, contractivity, and a mixture representation that connects the rules to softened thresholding operators. A Bayesian and penalized likelihood interpretation is also developed: SCOPE rules admit even penalty representations that are nondecreasing in coefficient magnitude, and suitable subclasses arise as exact maximum a posteriori estimators under proper symmetric unimodal priors. Representative examples based on logistic, uniform, and Cauchy distributions illustrate how probabilistic shape governs shrinkage behavior. Data driven parameter selection for smooth subclasses is discussed via Stein-type unbiased risk estimation. Oracle calibrated simulation studies on standard Donoho-Johnstone test functions show that SCOPE shrinkage performs competitively with several established wavelet denoising methods, while retaining a high degree of interpretability and structural flexibility. The results highlight centered distribution functions as a natural and versatile design principle for shrinkage in wavelet denoising and related estimation problems.

Factor models are popular approaches for analyzing high-dimensional data to extract low-rank signals and estimate covariances. They decompose the covariance matrix as the sum of low-rank and diagonal components. A key issue is how to choose the latent dimension $k$, which is particularly challenging when the factor model only holds approximately and in low signal-to-noise scenarios. Bayesian overfitted factor models specify an upper bound on $k$ and rely on structured shrinkage priors to effectively remove extra components. Such approaches are popular and effective, but computationally expensive. We propose a much faster \texttt{EigenBayes} approach that provides valid uncertainty quantification, based on spectral estimation of latent factors and adaptive empirical Bayes calibration of key hyperparameters. The resulting posterior distribution factorizes across outcomes and is analytically tractable, bypassing Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that \texttt{EigenBayes} adapts to the signal-to-noise ratio of each outcome and latent dimension, while shrinking superfluous latent components to zero. We establish favorable asymptotic properties and demonstrate strong empirical performance in numerical experiments and a genomics application, where EigenBayes outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.

The accurate calibration of interest rate models is central to market-consistent valuation and Economic Scenario Generators (ESGs). Traditional calibration methods for multi-factor models such as the G2++ model often rely on point estimates, neglecting the influence of specific market data and the quantification of estimation uncertainty. This paper develops a diagnostic framework embedding the calibration problem into non-linear regression theory. It shows that the common industry practice of minimizing the Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE) is equivalent to a Weighted Least Squares (WLS) problem. This equivalence yields the corresponding formulations for diagnostic tools, including the Weighted Hat Matrix for leverage analysis, Influence Functions for local sensitivity diagnostics, and the Functional Delta Method for local, boundary-respecting confidence intervals. The implementation uses an efficient Jacobian factorization that exploits the analytical tractability of At-The-Money (ATM) caps. The framework is applied to a dataset of Euro ATM caps covering the period 2016--2025. Our empirical analysis reveals a boundary-dominated leverage profile, repeated losses of effective dimensionality due to active parameter constraints, and a diagnostic regime shift in local parameter stability around the post-2022 market transition. The resulting message for actuarial model governance is that low RMSRE is not sufficient for calibration validation. We conclude by discussing the framework's applicability to general least-squares problems while highlighting the computational challenges for instruments lacking closed-form gradients, such as swaptions.

Errors in risk valuation outputs arising from data-feed failures, model misconfiguration, or system malfunctions can propagate undetected through an investment bank's risk infrastructure and generate material operational losses. Using proprietary daily credit-derivatives data from a major global investment bank covering 183 trades across 129 trading days, we design, implement, and empirically evaluate the Ensemble Quality Assessment Framework (EQAF), a layered unsupervised architecture that combines complementary outlier-detection methods to monitor risk calculation integrity in real time. Using a controlled anomaly-injection protocol with eight operationally realistic scenarios, we show that the calibrated ensemble achieves F1 scores of 61-79%, substantially outperforming the best individual method (6-66%) across four distinct risk-measure datasets. Improvements of 4-6 percentage points in AUC-ROC confirm that this advantage is robust to threshold selection. We further demonstrate that purely statistical detection methods systematically fail to identify stale-value anomalies, a class of frozen-feed errors in which valuation outputs are identical to prior observations and therefore indistinguishable from normal data, and that domain-specific deterministic rules are architecturally indispensable. These findings have direct implications for model risk management under Basel III and the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), where automated and auditable quality controls for internal risk models are increasingly required.

AI augmentation breaks the accounting link between labor time and productive contribution, yet firms continue to evaluate talent through time-based overhead bundles. This paper develops a forecasting framework for the transition from time-based talent accounting to output-based talent ROI in the human-AI era. The framework centres on Theorem 3 (ROI Inversion at τ*) as the empirical spine, with four mechanism theorems: overhead non-additivity, augmentation-saved-time pathways, innovation-premium amplification, and human-AI dyad attribution uncertainty. Korea's staged 52-hour workweek mandate provides an empirical early-warning case. In a DART panel of 365 listed firms (2,281 firm-year observations), the SG&A-to-revenue ratio rose from 18.26 percent in 2018 to 20.06 percent in 2020, corrected mildly in 2021-2022, and peaked at 20.10 percent in 2024. Under the revenue-percentile cohort proxy, two-way fixed effects (+1.56 pp, p = 0.049), pooled event-study estimates (+4.21 pp at t = +3, p = 0.001), and Callaway-Sant'Anna doubly-robust staggered DiD estimates (+4.51 pp at t = +4) converge on a positive overhead-pressure signature. A 2015-2017 backward extension (224 firms, 601 observations) supplies pre-treatment data, providing evidence against pre-existing upward-trend confounds. We read the Korean evidence not as a direct τ* estimate or a point causal magnitude, but as, to our knowledge, the first empirically documented signature of the pre-τ overhead-pressure regime, where time-based accounting still dominates while AI augmentation and labor-time compression jointly raise overhead. Output-based firms are forecast to outperform time-based peers by 1.5-2.0 percentage points in firm-level TFP growth by 2032. The contribution is a forecasting model and managerial planning tool for the shift to AI-augmented talent ROI accounting.

Factor-model performance depends not only on the model but also on how test assets are constructed. We form characteristic-unsorted random portfolios from a broad CRSP universe and vary stock selection, initial weighting, holding, and rebalancing. Rankings shift materially: buy-and-hold favors FF5 and FF6, whereas daily constant-weighting favors FF3, the most stable model across designs. Although q5 attains the highest maximum Sharpe ratio in factor-spanning tests, it leaves comparatively large and construction-sensitive pricing errors on random portfolios. These results reflect construction-specific weighting of each model's pricing-error vector. Test-asset construction, including dynamic weight management, is therefore a design choice in model evaluation.

The digitization of financial markets has produced two classes of platforms that price, in principle, the same state - contingent payoffs: centralized crypto-option exchanges and blockchain-based prediction markets. This paper provides the first option-implied benchmark test of prediction-market pricing for cryptocurrency threshold contracts. For each hour in a matched sample, we compare the Polymarket Yes price with the discounted risk-neutral binary value implied by a listed Binance call option on the same underlying, strike, and maturity, and study the gap between them. In the main September 2023 Bitcoin contract, the mean pricing gap equals 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations (t = 6.46, p < 10^{-9}). Pooling three Binance-compatible Bitcoin threshold markets yields a mean gap of 6.3 percentage points across 287 observations, robust to HAC and block-bootstrap inference. The gap is persistent - with an AR(1) half-life of roughly four hours - yet mean-reverting, consistent with slow information transmission between segmented venues rather than mechanical noise. Cross-sectional regressions reveal that the wedge is largest at low option-implied probabilities and long maturities, a pattern consistent with speculative demand for prediction-market contracts rather than measurement error. A delta-hedged arbitrage proxy remains profitable after conservative transaction costs, though with marginal statistical precision. A Deribit extension on the same three Bitcoin contracts produces a larger pooled gap of 11 percentage points, while a smaller Ethereum exercise yields mixed evidence. The results demonstrate that digital fragmentation of financial markets generates systematic, persistent pricing wedges even for economically identical payoffs.

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are fundamental to cellular growth and tissue formation, orchestrating spatially and temporally regulated gene expression during development. These networks are inherently subject to intrinsic fluctuations arising from molecular noise, making the analysis of their stability essential for understanding robust pattern formation and developmental dynamics of the organism. In this study, we analyze the stability and dynamics of cyclic GRNs with negative feedback and diffusion, considering both deterministic and stochastic approaches. In the deterministic case, the system exhibits a bifurcation between stability and instability, leading to Hopf instability in the absence of diffusion and to Turing-Hopf instability when diffusion is included. It was observed that the discretization of the spatial domain introduces additional unstable modes, enabling a wider range of patterns. The stochastic framework based on the second-moment approach, which incorporates intrinsic fluctuations, reveals that for small system sizes, fluctuations can dominate the dynamics and induce stochastic Turing instability, even when the system is stable in the absence of diffusion. Notably, Turing instabilities can emerge even when all variables have the same diffusion rate. The developed framework provides a systematic method for analyzing the stability of high-dimensional stochastic systems with diffusion, thereby simplifying the prediction of Turing and Turing-Hopf instabilities. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics and pattern formation in GRNs, with potential implications for biological processes, such as cellular differentiation and development.

Brain network is commonly divided into modules for analyzing their functionally segregated roles for group-level analysis in neuroimaging studies. Here, we introduce stochastic modules within brain networks for a robust probabilistic measurement of structural-functional module consistency (SFMC) in a group of subjects. Specifically, a stochastic module can be regarded as the chance of a brain region across subjects potentially being assigned to a group-level sub-network, characterized as an assignment probability for this brain region. This novel method has two advantages for evaluating inhomogeneous modules in brain networks. The first is that it can robustly evaluate the consistency between brain structural and functional modules whose population sizes are not necessary the same, and the second is that it is able to take into account the inter-individual variability of the modules for the groups. Moreover, compared with the conventional structural-functional coupling approach, our stochastic module-based method reveals a more pronounced decline in the coupling between structure and function, indicating stronger developmental reorganization. Our results using the dataset from Baby Connectome Project (BCP) show that the SFMC decreases from 0 to 5 years old, and is greater in primary brain regions, such as visual areas, while lower in more advanced cognitive regions, including those related to attention, control, and default mode network.

Motivation: Biomedical question answering often requires evidence beyond topically retrieved literature, including gene alias resolution, database identifier normalization, and atlas-derived biological measurements. However, existing retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically follow a fixed workflow and lack an explicit mechanism for deciding when retrieved text is sufficient, when curated biomedical knowledge is required, or when executable evidence assembly over structured measurements should be invoked. This motivates a substrate-aware large language model (LLM) harness that selectively assembles sufficient evidence across literature, knowledge bases, and biological atlases. Results: We introduce BioHarness, an LLM harness for staged biomedical evidence assembly across literature retrieval, curated biomedical knowledge resources, and atlas-derived structured measurements. BioHarness first attempts to answer from reranked literature evidence and escalates through grounded cascade control to REPL-style evidence assembly only when the current evidence is uncertain, weakly grounded, or substrate-mismatched. Across 19,302 biomedical QA items spanning seven answer formats, BioHarness improves the pooled score from 65.9 to 71.0 over the strongest non-oracle baseline. Ablations, case studies, and backbone-scaling analyses show that these gains arise from repairing evidence-substrate mismatches through reranking, entity grounding, and structured measurement access, rather than from indiscriminately invoking more reasoning steps, retrieving additional literature, or relying on a particular answer-model scale.

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) Beacon protocol lets researchers ask whether a genomic variant has been observed in a participating cohort and receive aggregate variant-level counts. As Beacon networks grow, two privacy risks remain: host institutions can see plaintext queries, and repeated rare-variant queries can support membership-inference attacks. We present bioETH-Beacon, a smart-contract prototype that runs the Beacon "aggregate count" query over encrypted data on a fully homomorphic Ethereum Virtual Machine (fhEVM). Hospitals upload encrypted marker-count entries, authorized researchers submit encrypted marker queries, and the contract returns an encrypted answer that is released, via an off-chain key-management service, only to the requester named in the contract's on-chain ACL. The design is organized as a 3x4 tier-by-query-family grid spanning genotype, sex, age, and phenotype queries, with tiers that trade stronger confidentiality for lower query cost. For genotype paths, the prototype can add bounded on-chain noise to mitigate probing attacks. Experiments on synthetic panels derived from a Polygenic Score (PGS) catalog show the expected scaling behavior and demonstrate that pre-aggregation can substantially reduce query gas when public marker presence is an acceptable trade-off. Overall, bioETH-Beacon provides a research prototype for confidential Beacon-style genomic querying without a trusted compute evaluator.

Why does massive AI investment fail to generate commensurate productivity gains? We argue the paradox is theoretically generated: prevailing production function frameworks encounter a structural boundary by treating AI as a separable factor of production without modeling the cognitive mediation through which AI generates productive value. This directs investment toward deployment when productivity requires prior development of what we term convergence capacity (C). We propose the Intellectually Converged Human (ICH) framework, a fifth-stage framework for production function theory: H-hat = H[1 + phi(A,C)], where effective productive capacity equals human capital (H) scaled by an augmentation factor [1 + phi], with phi jointly determined by AI utilization intensity (A) and convergence capacity (C), a four-dimensional cognitive construct encompassing embodied understanding, metacognition, temporal integration, and integrative thinking. The production function Y = F(K, H-hat) provides a human-centered mechanism for Solow's TFP residual: A_Solow = [1 + phi(A,C)]^(1-alpha). The framework predicts three augmentation regimes with distinct policy implications. Descriptive cross-national analysis of 20 OECD economies shows the AIxC interaction is associated with 86% of TFP variance versus 31% for AI alone, a pattern-consistent finding in the small-n theoretical tradition. South Korea exemplifies national-scale under-augmentation: high H, substantial A, low C produce phi = 0. We distinguish convergence capacity from adjacent constructs, absorptive capacity, dynamic capability, and human capital, and demonstrate that C constitutes the specific cognitive mediator that prior frameworks have left implicit. We derive C-first policy prescriptions and offer three empirically testable propositions with a falsifiable 10-year forecast.

Federated learning (FL) enables multiple parties to collaboratively fine-tune language models for domain-specific tasks without sharing raw data. Since full model fine-tuning is often prohibitively expensive for FL clients, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) has become the de facto approach in practice, freezing the base model and training only a small set of adapters. In this paper, we show that a malicious parameter server can stealthily corrupt a PEFT adapter into a privacy backdoor that implicitly memorizes the client's training samples as isolated per-sample parameter updates stored in separate neurons, without degrading model utility. Concretely, our attack, NeuroImprint, assigns a dedicated memorization neuron to each training sample and constrains that each neuron is updated at most once along the local fine-tuning trajectory. This design mitigates both cross-sample collisions and cross-step mixing introduced by large local batches and stateful optimizers (e.g., Adam/AdamW) in language-model fine-tuning. After fine-tuning, the resulting isolated per-sample updates can be analytically inverted in closed form to recover text embeddings, which are then deterministically mapped back to token sequences. To understand the generality of our method, we implemented NeuroImprint on multiple language models (BERT, GPT-2, Qwen2, and Llama3.2) and evaluated it across four fine-tuning datasets spanning diverse domains. The results demonstrate that our attack can reconstruct 59% to 79% of all finetuning samples with high semantic fidelity.

Scientific papers are frequently dense and characterized by features such as small fonts and line spacing, double columns of text, and tightly arranged figures. While these features make papers more compact, they can hinder readability, make them less accessible, and can strain the reader. arXiv is a premier open-access repository for scientific papers across different fields and is used extensively by researchers, including those in the physics and astrophysics communities. Easy Reads is an automated, end-to-end, open-source Python program that helps address the stated challenge by making papers from arXiv more reader-friendly and accessible. Easy Reads can automatically fetch a paper from arXiv via its URL and work with the source TeX file to allow custom formatting of the paper features, primarily the font size, and the number of columns used. The main goal of Easy Reads is to facilitate ease of reading of scientific papers.

When a cache miss fetches from cloud object storage, the bill is per GET request and per byte of egress, not latency. Classic caching minimizes the miss rate, the wrong objective: a rarely but expensively fetched object can cost thousands of times more dollars than a frequently but cheaply fetched one. Generalized-caching theory bounds the miss-cost objective, but no reported benchmark measures how far deployed heuristics sit from the dollar-optimal offline policy on real cloud prices. We supply that reference. For uniform-size page caches with heterogeneous miss costs the offline dollar-optimum is exact in polynomial time via an integral interval linear program -- validated against brute force; variable sizes are NP-hard, so we extend the flow-based offline bound from the hit-ratio objective to dollars (cost-FOO), tight to about four percent. Against this reference we find: (i) a heterogeneity-regret law -- LRU's dollar-regret rises with miss-cost dispersion (Spearman 0.87) while cost-aware GreedyDual cuts it to roughly a tenth; (ii) a contention frontier -- GreedyDual's residual regret collapses to near zero exactly when the budget fits the expensive working set, and is the open slice otherwise; and (iii) a closed-form crossover s* = GET_fee/egress_rate (about 4 KB on S3, 330 B on GCS) that predicts which deployments need dollar-aware caching at all. On a real Twitter trace the price vector alone moves the workload across s*, shifting the regime as predicted. The artifact is a reproducible billing-faithful benchmark; heuristics and bounds it builds on are prior work, credited.

In the information age, one of the leading problems is how to ensure individual's privacy. Depending on the context in which privacy is considered, various data privacy models have emerged. However, the domain of formal verification of these models is still not sufficiently explored even when it comes to the most basic models. An attempt to verify privacy requirements is the Compliance Assertion Language (COMPASS). In COMPASS, one can specify an anonymity condition that a table needs to satisfy, and an action that will modify the table if the condition is not satisfied. It is designed to operate on preprocessed tables in a form one record - one group of people. In this paper, we modify the COMPASS language in order to operate on microdata tables in their usual form of one record - one person. The modified language is called A-COMPASS. Along with checking of previously applied anonymity conditions, A-COMPASS enables the execution of anonymization actions as a new feature. We further provide the syntax and the semantics for the A-COMPASS language. We also prove the most important properties of the introduced semantics like determinism and compositionality. Finally, we provide a mechanism to verify anonymity properties, such as k-anonymity and l-diversity.

To address the challenges of interoperability in computational science, we present the latest updates to the software package MaRDI Open Interfaces. This software package aims to decrease the time and coding/testing efforts spent by computational scientists on tasks such as writing bindings to numerical solvers and adapting experiment codes to the varying interfaces of solvers for the same problem type (e.g., for benchmarking, which solver is better). By streamlining these tasks, this software package helps researchers focus on the actual essence of their computational projects. Here, we demonstrate a recently developed interface for nonlinear optimization and illustrate how it can be applied for computational experiments with optimization problems. As an example of such problem, we consider training of physics-informed neural networks to predict the solutions of viscous Burgers' equation.

Smallholder maize farmers in Uganda continue to face limited market access, weak bargaining power, low price transparency, and heavy reliance on intermediaries. These challenges are compounded by poor produce coordination, delayed payments, and weak visibility into cooperative transactions. This paper presents Farmer Connect, a cooperative-based digital platform designed to support produce management, marketplace coordination, and transparent earnings tracking among farmer groups. The system supports four user roles: administrators, supervisors, farmers, and customers. Its core functions include farmer group management, contribution recording and verification, marketplace listing, order processing, First In First Out based produce allocation, earnings visibility, mobile money payment support, and notification services. The platform was implemented using a mobile-first architecture with cloud-based backend services and an administrative web dashboard. Functional implementation showed that the system was able to support the major workflows required for group-based maize marketing and cooperative coordination, with approximately 85% of identified user requirements implemented. The study shows that cooperative-centered digital platforms can provide a practical framework for improving transparency, coordination, and buyer access for smallholder farmers.

We study prefix-dependent congruences for random deterministic transition systems with state outputs. In this setting, the admissible continuations used to compare two states may depend on the observed prefix, and two states are identified only if no common admissible continuation distinguishes their future outputs. The framework includes probabilistic deterministic finite automata as a motivating special case. We analyze the random transition model in which all transition values are independent and uniform. Each state is also assigned an independent label that specifies both its output and its set of admissible symbols. If two independent labels agree with probability strictly less than one, and every label has at least three admissible symbols, then the induced congruence is trivial with high probability. The proof combines a pruning process on pairs, a collision-free exploration controlling its early evolution, and a first-moment argument showing that the remaining pairs cannot organize into nontrivial equivalence classes.