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2606.19517 2026-06-19 q-fin.TR 新提交

Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket

预测市场是否与期权价格匹配?来自币安和Polymarket的比特币阈值证据

Victoria Portnaya

AI总结 本文通过比较Polymarket预测市场与币安期权隐含的比特币阈值合约价格,发现两者之间存在显著且持久的定价差距,平均约6.3个百分点,表明数字金融市场碎片化导致经济上相同的收益产生系统性定价偏差。

Comments 22 pages, 6 figures, 7 tables; JEL: G13, G14, G19

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AI中文摘要

金融市场的数字化产生了两类平台,它们原则上对相同的状态依存收益进行定价:中心化加密期权交易所和基于区块链的预测市场。本文首次提供了加密货币阈值合约的预测市场定价的期权隐含基准测试。在匹配样本的每个小时,我们将Polymarket的Yes价格与同一标的、行权价和到期日的上市币安看涨期权所隐含的贴现风险中性二元值进行比较,并研究两者之间的差距。在2023年9月的主要比特币合约中,平均定价差距为5.6个百分点(基于214个每小时观测值,t=6.46,p<10^{-9})。合并三个与币安兼容的比特币阈值市场,在287个观测值上得到平均差距为6.3个百分点,对HAC和块自举推断稳健。该差距是持久的——AR(1)半衰期约为四小时——但均值回归,这与分割场所之间缓慢的信息传递而非机械噪声一致。横截面回归显示,价差在期权隐含概率低和到期时间长时最大,这与预测市场合约的投机需求而非测量误差一致。在对冲套利代理中,在保守交易成本后仍保持盈利,但统计精度边际。在相同三个比特币合约上扩展至Deribit,合并差距更大,为11个百分点,而较小的以太坊练习则产生混合证据。结果表明,数字金融市场碎片化导致经济上相同的收益产生系统性、持久的定价偏差。

英文摘要

The digitization of financial markets has produced two classes of platforms that price, in principle, the same state - contingent payoffs: centralized crypto-option exchanges and blockchain-based prediction markets. This paper provides the first option-implied benchmark test of prediction-market pricing for cryptocurrency threshold contracts. For each hour in a matched sample, we compare the Polymarket Yes price with the discounted risk-neutral binary value implied by a listed Binance call option on the same underlying, strike, and maturity, and study the gap between them. In the main September 2023 Bitcoin contract, the mean pricing gap equals 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations (t = 6.46, p < 10^{-9}). Pooling three Binance-compatible Bitcoin threshold markets yields a mean gap of 6.3 percentage points across 287 observations, robust to HAC and block-bootstrap inference. The gap is persistent - with an AR(1) half-life of roughly four hours - yet mean-reverting, consistent with slow information transmission between segmented venues rather than mechanical noise. Cross-sectional regressions reveal that the wedge is largest at low option-implied probabilities and long maturities, a pattern consistent with speculative demand for prediction-market contracts rather than measurement error. A delta-hedged arbitrage proxy remains profitable after conservative transaction costs, though with marginal statistical precision. A Deribit extension on the same three Bitcoin contracts produces a larger pooled gap of 11 percentage points, while a smaller Ethereum exercise yields mixed evidence. The results demonstrate that digital fragmentation of financial markets generates systematic, persistent pricing wedges even for economically identical payoffs.