AI中文摘要
我们提出了一种基于模型的RAG型AI经济学家,具有用于经济情景分析的代理框架,使用大语言模型(LLMs)和知识图谱。虽然LLMs可以生成流畅的经济叙事,但经济学家通常需要做出基于经济理论和现实数据的经济主张。基于这一动机,本研究提出了一种基于RAG的AI经济学家,它利用包含经济数据和理论的知识图谱以及基于LLM的代理来规划分析、检索相关证据、选择合适的模型并生成报告。在我们的框架中,我们不直接仅使用语言模型产生定量主张;相反,我们生成基于显式模型计算的叙事,并通过AI代理与检索到的证据相关联。我们将我们的框架称为AI经济学家代理。我们在两个应用中评估了AI经济学家代理:为美国通胀持续性和美联储政策生成经济学家报告,以及为美国商业房地产再融资压力生成银行压力测试叙事。结果说明了如何通过基于生成报告来提高其经济连贯性和可追溯性。
英文摘要
We propose a model-grounded RAG-based AI economist with an agentic framework for economic scenario analysis using large language models (LLMs) and knowledge graphs. While LLMs can generate fluent economic narratives, economists are often required to make economic claims grounded by economic theory and real-world data. Based on this motivation, this study proposes an RAG-based AI economist, which utilizes knowledge graphs including economic data and theory and LLM-based agents to plan the analysis, retrieve relevant evidence, select appropriate models, and generate reports. In our framework, we do not produce quantitative claims directly with the language model alone; instead, we generate narratives grounded in explicit model-based computations and linked to the retrieved evidence via AI agents. We refer to our framework as an AI economist agent. We evaluate the AI economist agent in two applications: economist report generation for U.S. inflation persistence and Federal Reserve policy, and bank stress-test narrative generation for U.S. commercial real estate refinancing stress. The results illustrate how grounding the generated reports improves their economic coherence and traceability.