arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
2606.19550 2026-06-19 q-fin.GN q-fin.PR 新提交

Which Portfolios? The Construction Dependence of Factor Model Performance

哪些投资组合?因子模型表现的构建依赖性

Useong Shin

AI总结 研究发现因子模型表现高度依赖于测试资产的构建方式,如选股、初始加权、持有期和再平衡,其中买入持有策略偏好FF5和FF6,而每日恒定加权偏好FF3,且q5在因子跨度测试中夏普比率最高但定价误差较大。

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AI中文摘要

因子模型的表现不仅取决于模型本身,还取决于测试资产的构建方式。我们从广泛的CRSP范围内形成特征未排序的随机投资组合,并改变股票选择、初始加权、持有期和再平衡。排名发生实质性变化:买入持有策略偏好FF5和FF6,而每日恒定加权偏好FF3,这是跨设计最稳定的模型。尽管q5在因子跨度测试中达到了最高的最大夏普比率,但它对随机投资组合留下了相对较大且对构建敏感的定价误差。这些结果反映了每个模型定价误差向量的构建特定加权。因此,测试资产构建,包括动态权重管理,是模型评估中的一个设计选择。

英文摘要

Factor-model performance depends not only on the model but also on how test assets are constructed. We form characteristic-unsorted random portfolios from a broad CRSP universe and vary stock selection, initial weighting, holding, and rebalancing. Rankings shift materially: buy-and-hold favors FF5 and FF6, whereas daily constant-weighting favors FF3, the most stable model across designs. Although q5 attains the highest maximum Sharpe ratio in factor-spanning tests, it leaves comparatively large and construction-sensitive pricing errors on random portfolios. These results reflect construction-specific weighting of each model's pricing-error vector. Test-asset construction, including dynamic weight management, is therefore a design choice in model evaluation.

2606.20041 2026-06-19 econ.GN cs.AI cs.LG q-fin.EC q-fin.GN 交叉投稿

AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Model-Grounded Economic Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models

AI经济学家代理:一种基于模型的经济分析代理框架,结合RAG、知识图谱和大语言模型

Masahiro Kato

AI总结 提出一种基于RAG的AI经济学家代理框架,利用知识图谱和大语言模型进行经济情景分析,通过代理规划、检索证据、选择模型并生成报告,提高经济叙事的连贯性和可追溯性。

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AI中文摘要

我们提出了一种基于模型的RAG型AI经济学家,具有用于经济情景分析的代理框架,使用大语言模型(LLMs)和知识图谱。虽然LLMs可以生成流畅的经济叙事,但经济学家通常需要做出基于经济理论和现实数据的经济主张。基于这一动机,本研究提出了一种基于RAG的AI经济学家,它利用包含经济数据和理论的知识图谱以及基于LLM的代理来规划分析、检索相关证据、选择合适的模型并生成报告。在我们的框架中,我们不直接仅使用语言模型产生定量主张;相反,我们生成基于显式模型计算的叙事,并通过AI代理与检索到的证据相关联。我们将我们的框架称为AI经济学家代理。我们在两个应用中评估了AI经济学家代理:为美国通胀持续性和美联储政策生成经济学家报告,以及为美国商业房地产再融资压力生成银行压力测试叙事。结果说明了如何通过基于生成报告来提高其经济连贯性和可追溯性。

英文摘要

We propose a model-grounded RAG-based AI economist with an agentic framework for economic scenario analysis using large language models (LLMs) and knowledge graphs. While LLMs can generate fluent economic narratives, economists are often required to make economic claims grounded by economic theory and real-world data. Based on this motivation, this study proposes an RAG-based AI economist, which utilizes knowledge graphs including economic data and theory and LLM-based agents to plan the analysis, retrieve relevant evidence, select appropriate models, and generate reports. In our framework, we do not produce quantitative claims directly with the language model alone; instead, we generate narratives grounded in explicit model-based computations and linked to the retrieved evidence via AI agents. We refer to our framework as an AI economist agent. We evaluate the AI economist agent in two applications: economist report generation for U.S. inflation persistence and Federal Reserve policy, and bank stress-test narrative generation for U.S. commercial real estate refinancing stress. The results illustrate how grounding the generated reports improves their economic coherence and traceability.