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2605.24242 2026-06-12 q-fin.TR math.OC q-fin.MF 版本更新

Explicit Signal-Adaptive Sequential Optimal Execution Quotes

显式信号自适应顺序最优执行报价

Fenghui Yu

AI总结 本文针对限价订单簿中的顺序限价单执行问题,提出统一显式解理论,通过将填充强度与报价挂钩,推导出四种准则下的显式值函数和最优报价,并证明信号依赖漂移显著影响最优执行。

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48 pages, 11 figures
AI中文摘要

本文针对限价订单簿中通过顺序限价单放置的最优执行问题,发展了统一的显式解理论。我们不仅控制元订单的交易速度,还决定单个限价单应如何随时间报价。模型包含信号依赖漂移、价格冲击、库存风险和执行风险,其中填充由点过程建模,其强度依赖于提交的报价。我们制定了四个执行准则:期望终端财富、带运行库存惩罚的期望终端财富、终端财富的CARA效用、以及带运行库存惩罚的CARA效用。对于一般的价格冲击和库存惩罚函数,我们推导了相应的HJB方程,并证明所有四个问题都简化为一个可显式求解的三角有限维结构,从而在所有情况下得到完全显式的值函数和最优报价。我们还证明了适定性、可接受性和验证结果。显式公式揭示了不同准则下报价策略之间的联系,支持长期渐近分析,并且数值结果表明信号依赖漂移可以显著影响最优执行。

英文摘要

This paper develops a unified explicit solution theory for optimal execution through sequential limit-order placement in a limit order book. Rather than controlling only the trading speed of a metaorder, we determine how individual limit orders should be quoted over time. The model incorporates signal-dependent drift, price impact, inventory risk, and execution risk, with fills modeled by point processes whose intensities depend on the submitted quotes. We formulate four execution criteria: expected terminal wealth, expected terminal wealth with running inventory penalty, CARA utility of terminal wealth, and CARA utility with running inventory penalty. For general price-impact and inventory-penalty functions, we derive the corresponding HJB equations and show that all four problems reduce to a triangular finite-dimensional structure which can be solved explicitly, leading to fully explicit value functions and optimal quotes across all cases. We also prove well-posedness, admissibility, and verification results. The explicit formulas reveal connections between quoting strategies under different criteria, support long-horizon asymptotic analysis, and show numerically that signal-dependent drift can substantially affect optimal execution.

2605.22792 2026-06-12 q-fin.CP q-fin.MF q-fin.PR 版本更新

From Arbitrage Removal to Density Extraction: A Model-Free Framework for Short-Dated Options

从套利消除到密度提取:短期期权的无模型框架

Aaron Wizman, Gabriel Turinici, Gregory Merran

AI总结 提出一个两阶段无模型管道,先通过ARIES消除报价中的静态套利,再通过SEDEx在买卖价差约束下恢复风险中性密度,适用于短期期权数据。

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AI中文摘要

我们研究从短期期权链中提取风险中性密度。随着到期日临近,期权溢价下降,买卖价差相对于价格可能较大,使得中间报价特别不具信息性。过时或异步的报价也可能产生潜在的静态套利,使标准程序不可行或不稳定。我们开发了一个无模型管道,将买卖报价视为原始市场约束。该管道由两个步骤组成。首先,一个称为“套利消除迭代可执行策略”(ARIES)的程序在市场深度约束下过滤报价买价和卖价处的可执行静态套利。其次,“平滑熵密度提取”(SEDEx)通过一个利用买卖价差约束下的平滑性和熵的准则恢复密度。我们在合成Heston面板和短期SPX期权数据上测试该管道,数据采样自到期前几小时到一周。计算速度快,并在各种市场条件下(包括预定的宏观经济公告)返回稳健的密度。作为实证应用,我们使用恢复的密度构建短期隐含波动率微笑。

英文摘要

We study risk-neutral density extraction from short-dated option chains. As expiry approaches, option premia decline and bid--ask spreads can be large relative to prices, making mid quotes particularly uninformative. Stale or asynchronous quotes may also generate potential static arbitrages, rendering standard procedures infeasible or unstable. We develop a model-free pipeline that treats bid-ask quotes as the primitive market constraint. The pipeline consists of two steps. First, a procedure called ``Arbitrage Removal Iterative Executable Strategy'' (ARIES) filters executable static arbitrage at quoted bid and ask prices under market-depth constraints. Second, the ``Smooth Entropic Density EXtraction'' (SEDEx) then recovers the density through a criterion leveraging smoothness and entropy under bid-ask constraints. We test the pipeline on synthetic Heston panels and short-dated SPX option data, sampled from a few hours to one week before expiry. Computation is fast and returns robust densities across various market conditions, including scheduled macroeconomic announcements. As an empirical application, we use the recovered densities to construct short dated implied-volatility smiles.

2510.25740 2026-06-12 cs.IT math.PR q-fin.MF q-fin.PM 版本更新

A mathematical study of the excess growth rate

超额增长率的数学研究

Steven Campbell, Ting-Kam Leonard Wong

AI总结 本文从信息论角度研究超额增长率,建立其性质并给出三个公理刻画定理,同时探讨最大化问题及其与增长最优组合的关系。

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54 pages, 2 figures
AI中文摘要

超额增长率定义为对数詹森不等式中的间隙,是投资组合理论中的一个基本泛函。在本文中,我们提出了一项受信息论启发的数学研究。我们首先建立其性质,并展示它与信息论概念(如亥姆霍兹自由能、L. Campbell的平均码长测度和大偏差)有丰富的联系。我们的主要结果包括三个超额增长率的公理化刻画定理,分别基于(i)相对熵,(ii)詹森不等式中的间隙,以及(iii)推广了Bregman散度的对数散度。此外,我们研究了超额增长率的最大化,并将其与增长最优组合进行比较。我们的结果不仅为超额增长率的重要性提供了理论依据,而且建立了信息论与定量金融之间的新联系。

英文摘要

The excess growth rate, defined as the gap in Jensen's inequality for the logarithm, is a fundamental functional in portfolio theory. In this paper, we present a mathematical study motivated by information theory. We begin by establishing its properties and showing that it has rich connections with information theoretic concepts such as the Helmholtz free energy, L. Campbell's measure of average code length and large deviations. Our main results consist of three axiomatic characterization theorems of the excess growth rate, in terms of (i) the relative entropy, (ii) the gap in Jensen's inequality, and (iii) the logarithmic divergence that generalizes the Bregman divergence. Furthermore, we study maximization of the excess growth rate and compare it with the growth optimal portfolio. Our results not only provide theoretical justifications of the significance of the excess growth rate, but also establish new connections between information theory and quantitative finance.

2505.01921 2026-06-12 q-fin.PR q-fin.CP q-fin.RM 版本更新

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Models in Asset Pricing: An Empirical Study on Large-Cap US Stocks

多层感知机神经网络模型在资产定价中的应用:基于美国大盘股的实证研究

Shanyan Lai

AI总结 本研究将动态结构的多层感知机模型应用于因子模型进行资产定价,基于公司特征排序的投资组合因子建模美国大盘股,并开发了因子投资策略,发现2-3隐藏层的MLP模型在数据限制下更具灵活性,且更适用于下行风险控制。

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AI中文摘要

在本研究中,具有动态结构的MLP模型被应用于资产定价任务的因子模型。具体而言,采用MLP金字塔模型结构对基于公司特征排序的投资组合因子进行建模,以模拟美国大盘股。进一步,基于预测结果开发了实用的因子投资策略。主要发现从两个角度进行评估:模型预测能力和回测表现,并比较了包含和不包含COVID-19的时期。实证结果表明,在数据规模的限制下,MLP模型在预测能力上不再表现出“越深越好”,而本文提出的具有2个和3个隐藏层的MLP模型在这种情况下对因子建模具有更大的灵活性。本研究还验证了先前工作的观点,即用于因子投资的MLP模型对于下行风险控制比追求绝对年化收益更有意义。

英文摘要

In this study, MLP models with dynamic structure are applied to factor models for asset pricing tasks. Concretely, the MLP pyramid model structure was employed on firm characteristic-sorted portfolio factors for modelling the large-cap US stocks. It was further developed as a practical factor investing strategy based on the predictions. The main findings were evaluated from 2 angles: model predictive power and backtesting performance, which were compared for the periods with and without COVID-19. The empirical results indicated that, given the constraints of the data size, the MLP models no longer perform 'deeper, better' in terms of predictive power, whereas the proposed MLP models with 2 and 3 hidden layers have greater flexibility in modelling the factors in this case. This study also verified the idea from previous work that MLP models for factor investing are more meaningful for downside risk control than for pursuing absolute annual returns.

2408.08874 2026-06-12 q-fin.GN 版本更新

Hydrogen Development in China and the EU: A Recommended Tian Ji's Horse Racing Strategy

中国与欧盟的氢能发展:推荐的天基赛马策略

Hong Xu

AI总结 本文提出比较分析框架,研究中国与欧盟的氢能发展轨迹,通过关键因素对比及典型区域案例分析,揭示供需、产业协同与政策激励,为全球绿色转型提供政策启示。

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Accepted as a policy research working paper at the 42nd International Energy Workshop (IEW 2024) hosted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in Bonn, Germany
AI中文摘要

全球建立可持续能源系统的势头日益显著。氢作为一种卓越的无碳可再生能源载体,已在阿联酋COP28上获得39个国家认可,承认其在全球能源转型和工业脱碳中的关键作用。欧盟和中国均处于这一转变的前沿,制定氢能战略以加强区域能源安全,并分别致力于2050年(欧盟)和2060年(中国)实现碳中和承诺。氢在难以减排领域的广泛应用以及分散式生产和储存的灵活性,提供了利用当地资源以自定节奏的定制化解决方案。为了揭示中国和欧盟氢能发展的轨迹,本文提出了一个比较分析框架,采用关键因素来研究这两个经济体的氢能发展。除了国家层面的统计数据,本文还深入探讨了中国(内蒙古、首都经济圈、长三角)和欧洲(三角洲莱茵走廊)的代表性氢能经济区域,以了解当地氢能产业的供需、产业协同和政策激励。得出的启示为利益相关者提供了欧亚大陆不断变化的氢能格局,并为促进全球绿色转型的未来政策发展提供了见解。

英文摘要

The global momentum towards establishing sustainable energy systems has become increasingly prominent. Hydrogen, as a remarkable carbon-free and renewable energy carrier, has been endorsed by 39 countries at COP28 in the UAE, recognizing its essential role in global energy transition and industry decarbonization. Both the European Union (EU) and China are at the forefront of this shift, developing hydrogen strategies to enhance regional energy security and racing for carbon neutrality commitments by 2050 for the EU and 2060 for China. The wide applications of hydrogen across hard-to-abate sectors and the flexibility of decentralized production and storage offer customized solutions utilizing local resources in a self-paced manner. To unveil the trajectory of hydrogen development in China and the EU, this paper proposes a comparative analysis framework employing key factors to investigate hydrogen developments in both economic powerhouses. Beyond country-wise statistics, it dives into representative hydrogen economic areas in China (Inner Mongolia, Capital Economic Circle, Yangtze River Delta) and Europe (Delta Rhine Corridor) for understanding supply and demand, industrial synergy, and policy incentives for local hydrogen industries. The derived implications offer stakeholders an evolving hydrogen landscape across the Eurasian continent and insights for future policy developments facilitating the global green transition.