Scenario Generation for Time Series and Curves: A Comparison of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Bootstrap
时间序列与曲线的场景生成:非参数与半参数自助法的比较
Nicola Baldoni, Michele Sparviero, Lorenzo Viola
AI总结 针对金融时间序列场景生成中非参数自举法产生不现实路径的问题,本文综述了结合参数结构与残差重采样的半参数方法,并在利率与收益率曲线模拟中验证其有效性。
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- 25 pages, 6 figures, 11 tables
为资产类别生成随机轨迹是量化金融中日益重要的任务。传统方法(如平稳自举法)通过构造保留了资产类别收益的经验分布,但不能确保每个模拟路径在经济上现实:场景可能在分布上有效,而单个轨迹未能代表世界的合理状态。为解决这一局限性,我们回顾了半参数模拟方法,这些方法将强制实现现实动态的参数结构与模型残差的重采样相结合,从而保留历史数据中观察到的随机成分。对于利率而言,这一问题尤为突出,因为对利率变化的直接重采样可能产生不合理的收益率曲线演变,尽管分布性质正确。我们的实证分析显示了基于自回归或均值回复设定的半参数自举法的有效性。在固定收益环境中,将这些方法与完全参数化的期限结构模型相结合,可以产生更一致且现实的收益率曲线动态模拟。
Generating stochastic trajectories for asset classes is an increasingly relevant task in quantitative finance. Traditional approaches, such as the stationary bootstrap, preserve by construction the empirical distribution of asset-class returns, but do not ensure that each individual simulated path is economically realistic: scenarios may be valid in distribution while single trajectories fail to represent plausible states of the world. To address this limitation, we review semiparametric simulation methodologies that combine a parametric structure, which enforces realistic dynamics, with the resampling of model residuals, which preserves the stochastic component observed in historical data. The issue is particularly acute for interest rates, where direct resampling of rate changes may produce implausible yield-curve evolutions despite correct distributional properties. Our empirical analysis shows the effectiveness of semiparametric bootstrap methods based on autoregressive or mean-reverting specifications. In the fixed-income setting, combining these methods with fully parametric term-structure models yields more coherent and realistic simulations of yield-curve dynamics.