Comprehensive information on cloud microphysical process rates from numerical simulations allows for better understanding of precipitation formation pathways and aerosol-cloud interactions. However, resource limitations often make it impractical to include all microphysical process rates in the model output, limiting in-depth analyses. To address this shortcoming, we introduce PRecover, a data-driven post-processing approach to recover microphysical process rates that are not stored during runtime from standard output of a numerical weather prediction model. In particular, we train random forests, gradient boosting models, and feed-forward neural networks to recover microphysical process rates from a two-moment bulk microphysics scheme in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model. We use cloud variables as input, obtained from high-resolution simulations in a limited-area setup over Europe. Warm-rain and ice microphysical process rates are recovered with a two-step classification-regression approach for both instantaneous and accumulated process rates. As a physics-based baseline, we assess whether process rates can be directly recalculated from stored ICON output variables. Accurate recalculation is possible for process rates such as accretion and self-collection but not for the autoconversion, rain melting or heterogeneous ice nucleation rate. Using PRecover, we successfully recover most of the process rates that are accumulated over output time steps of 10 minutes or less, but the values are increasingly difficult to recover for rates accumulated over longer accumulation intervals. To quantify predictive uncertainty, we provide calibrated prediction intervals through conformalized quantile regression. We demonstrate spatial transferability of the models with two case studies over different regional domains and simulation settings unseen during training.

Increased upper-ocean stratification is an unavoidable consequence of global warming and will strongly impact the structure of ocean currents. Using a high-resolution ocean model, we show that intensification of stratification leads to the loss of coherence of the Gulf Stream Extension, replacing its steady eastward path with vigorous, chaotic meanders. This regime shift persists independently of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and surface wind forcing. Enhanced meandering under intensified stratification also proves to be a robust feature across both idealized and realistic ocean models that resolve mesoscale eddies, but is not captured by coarse-resolution models that parameterize eddies. The presented findings therefore highlight the need for improved representations of oceanic turbulence in climate projections.

We investigate the seasonal phase locking of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a linear stochastic recharge oscillator (SRO), a damped oscillator with additive noise and a time-dependent growth rate. Phase locking is reflected in the seasonality of the variance of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). In general, energy drives such a change, whereas entropy governs whether it occurs; phase locking is thus subject to both an energy- and an entropy-based constraint. We quantify this entropy-based constraint using a thermodynamic uncertainty relation (TUR), a fundamental inequality in stochastic thermodynamics. The TUR constrains the tendency of the SSTA variance by the partial entropy production rate, which is dominated by the ratio of forward and backward transition probabilities and quantifies the irreversibility of SSTA transitions. The growth rate governs this irreversibility: its extrema occur in boreal autumn and late winter, and the entropy production rate peaks at both times. These peaks relax the TUR constraint on the tendency of the SSTA variance, so that the variance itself can peak in boreal winter, consistent with observed ENSO phase locking. Conversely, when irreversibility is insufficient, ENSO cannot grow or decay. If this irreversibility were interpreted as dissipated energy, the constraint on ENSO growth and decay would require this dissipation to be exported from the equatorial Pacific. A more realistic model is needed to test this hypothesis and to further explore the physical connection between entropy and dissipated energy.

Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how well ensemble forecasts approximate the unknown statistical distribution of future states. AI models facilitate larger ensembles and are trained with probabilistic considerations, ideally leading to better uncertainty quantification. Forecasts from these state-of-the-art models are often considered well-calibrated. However, here we show that the statistical coverage of such models, the ultimate measure of calibration, can struggle, especially on extreme events. To address this shortcoming, we employ conformal prediction, a class of statistical methods that mathematically guarantees coverage under no distributional assumptions, unlike previous post-processing techniques. We apply online conformal prediction to temperature and precipitation forecasts (including extremes) of three leading global weather models, GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS, ensuring calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics. This post-processing method can be applied to any forecasting model.

Spatial patterns in observed climate trends remain poorly understood. Here we argue that a warming of land relative to ocean has shaped observed surface temperature and atmospheric circulation trends, including the negative Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)-like tendency across the Pacific basin. Observed and modeled trends display an overall decline in sea level pressure over the faster-warming land relative to ocean, with a spatial pattern that resembles the seasonal cycle and the response to land heating in idealized climate model experiments. Coupled climate model simulations with historical forcing underestimate the land-sea warming ratio. It is only in the early response of abrupt CO2 quadrupling climate model simulations that climate models are able to recreate the observed land-sea warming ratio, in which case a strengthening of oceanic surface highs and a negative IPO-like surface warming pattern over the Pacific comparable to observed trends are seen. We propose that discrepancies between modeled and observed trends in many climate variables may be explained by the underestimation of the land-sea warming ratio by climate models. Determining the cause of this discrepancy has the potential to constrain projections of future climate change as the underlying mechanism causing climate models to underestimate the land-sea warming ratio discrepancy will set the persistence of this problem.

While proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-based surrogates are widely explored for hydrodynamic applications, the use of Koopman autoencoders for real-world coastal-ocean modelling remains relatively limited. This paper introduces a flexible Koopman autoencoder formulation that incorporates meteorological forcings and boundary conditions, and systematically compares its performance against POD-based surrogates. The Koopman autoencoder employs a learned linear temporal operator in latent space, enabling eigenvalue regularization to promote temporal stability. This strategy is evaluated alongside temporal unrolling techniques for achieving stable and accurate long-term predictions. The models are assessed on three test cases spanning distinct dynamical regimes, with prediction horizons up to one year at 30-minute temporal resolution. Across all cases, the reduced order surrogates with temporal unrolling achieve high accuracy with relative root-mean-squared-errors of 0.0068-0.14 and $R^2$-values of 0.61-0.995, where prediction errors are largest for current velocities, and smallest for water surface elevations. In two of the three cases, the Koopman Autoencoder have higher accuracy than the POD-based surrogates. Comparing to in-situ observations, the surrogate yields -0.64% to 12% increase in water surface elevation prediction error when compared to prediction errors of the physics-based model. These error levels, corresponding to a few centimeters, are acceptable for many practical applications, while inference speed-ups of 300-1400x enables workflows such as ensemble forecasting and long climate simulations for coastal-ocean modelling.

While geostrophy remains the simplest and most practical balance to extract velocity information from sea-surface height anomaly (SSHa), confusions remain within the oceanographic community to what extent this balance can be applied to altimetric observations with the launch of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite. Given the limited temporal resolution of SWOT, many studies have resorted to claiming that the spatially filtered SSHa fields correspond to the geostrophic component. This introduces the ambiguity of which spatial scale to choose. Here, we build upon the recent developments in internal tide (IT) corrections (Yadidya et al., 2025) and apply a dynamic mode decomposition (DMD)-based method introduced by Lapo et al. (2025) to robustly extract the geostrophic component associated with sub-inertial frequencies from the SWOT one-day-repeat orbit; we distribute the global dataset as a public good. We provide the joint probability density function (PDF) of vorticity and strain, and spectra of SSHa at a few cross-over regions.