Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability
基于VQ-VAE和地震统计特征的时空地震危险性评估
Wei Quan, Denise Gorse
AI总结 本文在先前基于XGBoost和地震统计特征的研究基础上,将预测从全区域扩展到局部区域,并引入基于VQ-VAE模型从二维地震图提取的新特征,提升了局部地震预测性能。
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- Title updated from "Spatiotemporal Seismic Hazard Assessment Using VQ-VAE and Seismic Statistical Features" to "Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability" in v2 to better reflect the focus of the paper. The content is unchanged apart from the title and minor copyediting
在本文中,我们基于先前的一项研究,该研究使用XGBoost以及日本和智利的地震目录数据证明,一组60个地震统计特征(SSFs)比tsfresh包中的428个通用时间序列特征具有更大的预测价值。我们在此以两种关键方式扩展了先前的工作,重点使用日本的数据,因为需要大数据集来训练深度学习(自编码器)模型。首先,我们从全区域预测(针对每个候选事件,考虑未来15天内区域内任何地方发生M≥5.0事件的可能性)转向局部预测,其中特征计算区域和预测区域都限制在候选事件周围半径24公里的圆内,并且我们表明性能仍然优秀,与先前同一区域的全局研究相似。其次,我们将基于一维(目录)数据的这套经过验证的SSFs与基于二维地震图的新特征相结合,该特征通过训练VQ-VAE模型以输出此类地图,并识别其误差度量与局部地壳应力积累的关系。我们表明,尽管仅基于SSFs的局部预测可以单独有效,测试AUC值与先前日本全局研究中的值一样高,但包含新的原生空间VQ-VAE衍生特征(通过SHAP分析排名最高)可以提升性能,并且似乎几乎完全取代了传统计算的b值在特征使用中的位置。
In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based on SSFs can be effective alone, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, can enhance performance and additionally appears to near-wholly replace the traditionally-computed $b$-value in terms of feature usage.