Human collective participation is rarely steady in time: it is bursty, with short episodes of intense activity separated by long quiet intervals. In crisis response and community mobilization, predicting when people act matters as much as predicting whether they act. Such settings are increasingly modeled with LLM-based social simulators, yet these simulators are validated on whether each action is individually plausible, not on whether actions are timed as in reality. Their temporal realism, the degree to which simulated activity reproduces the bursty, heavy-tailed timing of real human systems, thus remains untested. We examine this gap using a multi-year, city-scale log of offline volunteering in Shenzhen that spans the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirically, we establish that bursty timing is common at individual and tracked-group levels, that it is largely endogenous and self-exciting, and that it is amplified by the pandemic rather than produced by daily activity cycles. A standard LLM-only simulator reproduces almost none of this timing: its synchronous schedule has no self-excitation channel, so agents act on a near-regular clock. Guided by these findings, we build a simulator in which a data-calibrated self-excitation channel and a crisis-period regime decide when each agent acts and query the LLM only at those moments, leaving it to decide which task to join and whether to commit. The LLM-only baseline yields no bursty agents (median burstiness $B=-0.14$); a single data-calibrated gate is then sufficient to lift per-agent timing above the burst threshold (median $B\approx0.37$) without degrading LLM content decisions. These results indicate that temporal realism in LLM-based crisis-response simulation is best achieved by decoupling when agents act, governed by an explicit self-excitation and crisis-activation mechanism, from what they do, governed by the LLM.

Many real-world networks are incomplete, making link prediction a fundamental challenge in network science. To train parameters and evaluate algorithms, observed links are usually divided into three subsets, namely training, validation, and probe sets. This division implicitly involves two sampling processes: first-stage sampling yields the probe set and second-stage sampling obtains the variation set. To date, our understanding of how these two sampling processes affect algorithm performance remains quite limited. To address this issue, we propose a sampling scheme called $β$-sampling, where the sampling probability of a link is proportional to the product of the degrees of its two endpoints raised to the power of $β$. Experiments on 45 real-world networks reveal that the structural characteristics of missing links, as simulated via varying probe sets, substantially impact prediction accuracy. When missing links tend to connect high-degree nodes, such links can be predicted accurately with ease. Furthermore, even with a fixed probe set, second-stage sampling still exerts a significant influence on prediction accuracy. Notably, the optimal second-stage sampling strategy differs from \textit{random sampling} (which randomly selects links to form the validation set) and \textit{consistent sampling} (which guarantees that links in the validation and probe sets share identical structural characteristics).

Smallholder maize farmers in Uganda continue to face limited market access, weak bargaining power, low price transparency, and heavy reliance on intermediaries. These challenges are compounded by poor produce coordination, delayed payments, and weak visibility into cooperative transactions. This paper presents Farmer Connect, a cooperative-based digital platform designed to support produce management, marketplace coordination, and transparent earnings tracking among farmer groups. The system supports four user roles: administrators, supervisors, farmers, and customers. Its core functions include farmer group management, contribution recording and verification, marketplace listing, order processing, First In First Out based produce allocation, earnings visibility, mobile money payment support, and notification services. The platform was implemented using a mobile-first architecture with cloud-based backend services and an administrative web dashboard. Functional implementation showed that the system was able to support the major workflows required for group-based maize marketing and cooperative coordination, with approximately 85% of identified user requirements implemented. The study shows that cooperative-centered digital platforms can provide a practical framework for improving transparency, coordination, and buyer access for smallholder farmers.

As individuals turn to the Internet to find answers to questions they may have, several Question Answering (QA) forums have evolved, where users knowledgeable in certain topics can contribute their expertise to answering these requests for information. While these are currently volunteer based, we consider a future version employing knowledge workers who are experts in certain topics. In such a system, the request-answer processes forming the queuing system may utilize schedulers that assign requests in different topics to the experts in the forum, who may be able to answer them according to their expertise levels in different topics. With this model, we calculate the capacity of the system for handling the requests while keeping the system stable, and design schedulers that achieve capacity. We also investigate how collaboration between experts in answering requests can potentially increase capacity.

We present a multilingual computational discourse analysis of how language constructed the algorithmic consecration of Vozinha, the 40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper, after Spain 0-0 Cape Verde at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The study contributes a multilingual corpus in Portuguese, Spanish, English, and French; a nine-frame narrative taxonomy with cue-based frame annotation; a reproducible annotation pipeline combining LLM-assisted suggestion with human validation; and an analysis of cross-lingual narrative diffusion across discourse phases. We treat the platform follower count itself, narrated as "50k to 8M", as a linguistic object: a circulating and narratable proof of visibility rather than a mere measurement. The follower-growth timeline is used only as contextual metadata: we reconstruct a conservative phase structure, not a continuous API-native series, and type every datapoint by value class, confidence, and evidence type. The only exact primary scraper anchor is 8,235,652 followers at 2026-06-16 15:47 UTC; all other figures are reported as estimated ranges or thresholds, including an estimated pre-match baseline of 45k-56k. Findings suggest that distinct languages carried distinct frames: Portuguese mobilization, Spanish crisis, English nation-making, and a shared platform-metric spectacle through which peripheral athletic performance became globally visible. As a v0.1 pilot, the paper releases the corpus schema, frame taxonomy, annotation guidelines, hashed visual-evidence log, and typed timeline, while flagging full double annotation and inter-annotator agreement as planned work.

From ancient Mesopotamia to modern cities, dense human settlements coincide with bursts of economic productivity, cultural innovation, and social change. But how does packing people more tightly together alter social organization in ways that reshape collective outcomes? Here, I use a minimal agent-based model to isolate the effect of population density, holding population size and individual behavior fixed while varying only how closely individuals are placed in space. In the model, individuals form social ties gradually, favoring those nearby and those already well-connected. Under these simple rules, varying population density alone is sufficient to reorganize social network structure: sparse populations develop locally clustered communities, while denser ones form globally integrated networks with shorter social distances and a tightly interconnected core of popular individuals. This structural transition occurs sharply over a narrow range of densities and is governed by whether physical proximity or social popularity dominates tie formation. Simulating contagions on these networks reveals that the consequences of this shift depend on what is spreading. Simple contagions (e.g., information or disease) reach a majority of individuals more quickly in denser populations. Complex contagions (e.g., social norms or collective behaviors) do not spread faster, but instead achieve broader and more reliable adoption as density increases. Together, these results show that population density can act as a structural force independent of the economic and behavioral mechanisms typically invoked to explain why cities are engines of change.

Understanding the dynamic evolution of opinions, such as U.S. public attitudes toward China, is essential for assessing geopolitical risks. However, existing LLM-based multiagent simulators predominantly rely on static rules and fixed datasets, limiting their ability to capture the dynamic, event-driven nature of macro-level opinion shifts in real-world settings. To address this limitation, we propose an Event-Steered Multi-Agent Simulator (ES-MAS), in which significant events and daily news continuously drive opinion evolution through dynamic interactions among agents. We first construct the China-U.S. Relation Evolution (CURE) dataset, covering 20 quarters from 2021 to 2025, including 258 major events and over 14,000 daily news articles, and providing a comprehensive temporal foundation for modeling opinion dynamics. Building upon the CURE dataset, we propose a Dual-Stream Data Integration Engine (DSDIE) that aligns simulations with historical timelines via macro-level events while enabling personalized information exposure based on individual agent profiles and contextual signals. Furthermore, we design a News-Driven Dynamic Interaction (NDDI) module, which adaptively groups agents with shared news interests into localized interaction contexts, facilitating bottom-up consensus formation while mitigating the risk of isolated information cocoons. Experimental results on the CURE dataset demonstrate that ES-MAS substantially outperforms existing simulators in reproducing real-world historical trends, offering a scalable and effective framework for modeling dynamic opinion evolution.

Predicting links in sparse, continuously evolving networks is a central challenge in network science. Conventional heuristic methods and deep learning models, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), are typically designed for static graphs and thus struggle to capture temporal dependencies. Snapshot-based techniques partially address this issue but often encounter data sparsity and class imbalance, particularly in networks with transient interactions such as telecommunication call detail records (CDRs). Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) model dynamic graphs by updating node embeddings over time; however, their predictive accuracy under sparse conditions remains limited. In this study, we improve the TGN framework by extracting enclosing subgraphs around candidate links, enabling the model to jointly learn structural and temporal information. Experiments on a sparse CDR dataset show that our approach increases average precision by 2.6% over standard TGNs, demonstrating the advantages of integrating local topology for robust link prediction in dynamic networks.

HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and the University of Witwatersrand, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual deployment, directly supporting progress toward UN Sustainable Development Goal 3.3. While prior work has demonstrated the promise of intelligent algorithms for sequential, network-based HIV testing, existing approaches rely on assumptions that are impractical in our real-world implementations. Here, we study sequential testing on incrementally revealed disease networks and introduce Policy-Embedded Graph Expansion (PEGE), a novel framework that directly embeds a generative distribution over graph expansions into the decision-making policy rather than attempting explicit topological reconstruction. We further propose Dynamics-Driven Branching (DDB), a diffusion-based graph expansion model that supports decision making in PEGE and is designed for data-limited settings where forest structures arise naturally, as in our real-world referral process. Experiments on real HIV transmission networks show that the combined approach (PEGE + DDB) consistently outperforms baselines (e.g., 17.3% improvement in discounted reward and 15.4% more HIV detections with 25% of the population tested) and explore key tradeoffs that drive solution quality.

We introduce the Cycle Walk, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for sampling distributions on balanced graph partitions, motivated by applications in political redistricting. The method operates on spanning forests and combines two types of updates: local "cycle" moves within districts and global moves that exchange population between adjacent districts while preserving balance constraints. This construction enables efficient Metropolis--Hastings correction while allowing proposals at multiple spatial scales. We show that the Cycle Walk naturally interpolates between existing approaches based on local updates and a class of global update methods derived from recombination (RECOM). Through a range of numerical experiments on synthetic graphs and real-world precinct data, we demonstrate that the Cycle Walk exhibits improved empirical convergence diagnostics for distributions that place weaker weight on spanning-tree counts, a regime that is challenging for existing methods. In particular, the algorithm remains effective when incorporating alternative compactness measures that more closely reflect policy-relevant criteria. These results suggest that the Cycle Walk provides a flexible and computationally efficient framework for sampling from a broader class of redistricting distributions than previously accessible with MCMC techniques.

Graph symmetries identify structural regularities and reduce the computational complexity of network analysis. In weighted graphs, however, exact automorphisms are rare because real-valued weights seldom coincide. We introduce a general framework for detecting approximate symmetries by aggregating weights into discrete categories, generating a sequence of coarser graphs on which classical automorphism analysis applies. The approximation path is fully configurable, based on interaction magnitudes, and can be matched to the empirical weight distribution. Applied to 250 empirical food webs using logarithmic aggregation, the method reveals that automorphisms emerge even at low approximation levels and almost always form small orbits. Orbit sizes rarely exceed two or three vertices, reflecting the combinatorial fragility of larger symmetric sets. Even so, symmetric vertices occupy diverse structural positions in the network and high connectivity does not imply asymmetry. The observation of just local permutations confirms the conclusions of trophic species and niche analysis. A case study demonstrates that automorphisms can also recover latent ecological structure. The minimal aggregation level at which two vertices become substitutable provides a quantitative measure of role similarity. The framework offers a principled, automorphism-based approach for quantifying similarity and redundancy in weighted complex networks.

Social media platforms frequently impose restrictive policies to moderate user content, prompting the emergence of creative evasion language strategies. This paper presents a multi-agent framework based on Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate the iterative evolution of language strategies under regulatory constraints. In this framework, participant agents, as social media users, continuously evolve their language expression, while supervisory agents emulate platform-level regulation by assessing policy violations. To achieve a more faithful simulation, we employ a dual design of language strategies (constraint and expression) to differentiate conflicting goals and utilize an LLM-driven GA (Genetic Algorithm) for the selection, mutation, and crossover of language strategies. The framework is evaluated using two distinct scenarios: an abstract password game and a realistic simulated illegal pet trade scenario. Experimental results demonstrate that as the number of dialogue rounds increases, both the number of uninterrupted dialogue turns and the accuracy of information transmission improve significantly. Furthermore, a user study with 40 participants validates the real-world relevance of the generated dialogues and strategies. Moreover, ablation studies validate the importance of the GA, emphasizing its contribution to long-term adaptability and improved overall results.