Blame is easier than praise: Measuring off-ball defensive performance in football
责备比表扬更容易:衡量足球中的无球防守表现
Jonas Bischofberger, Runqing Ma, Pascal Bauer, Kilian Arnsmeyer, Arnold Baca
AI总结 提出基于防守压力区(DPA)的球员参与度评分,将预期威胁的事件级变化归因于个体,以衡量足球无球防守表现,并在跨性别和跨赛事数据集上验证其有效性。
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足球运动员的防守表现通常通过有限的行动(如抢断和拦截)来衡量,而他们通过位置行为的持续影响此前很少被研究。我们将此问题表述为多智能体时空轨迹上的归因问题,没有球员级别的真实标签,其中事件级别的预期威胁变化被分配给个体。我们提出了一个框架,使用从防守压力区(DPA)计算的球员参与度评分来执行此归因。通过计算自动检测的团队结构内的角色条件基线,我们可以确定每个防守者对通过任意传球创造的威胁的预期责任。该方法的有效性和鲁棒性在独特的广泛跨性别和跨赛事数据集上进行了评估,包括来自男子世界杯64场比赛、女子德甲116场比赛和男子德丙336场比赛的位置和事件数据。在没有真实标签的情况下,我们提出了一个评估协议,将多个相对较弱的代理组合成稳健的总结分数。我们发现,与最佳基于行动的指标相比,有效性分数提高了大约一个标准差,并证明许多流行指标的有效性有限。对高价值行动的“责备”与外部评级和市场价值显示出特别强的相关性,使其成为足球中第一个可靠衡量定位错误的已发表指标。本工作所有代码均公开可用,以支持可重复性和进一步研究。
The defensive performance of football players is commonly measured through a limited number of actions like tackles and interceptions while their continuous impact through positional behaviour has hardly been studied before. We formulate this problem as an attribution over multi-agent spatiotemporal trajectories without player-level ground truth labels, where event-level changes of expected threat are distributed among individuals. We propose a framework that performs this attribution using player involvement scores calculated from defensive pressure areas (DPAs). By computing role-conditioned baselines within automatically detected team structures, we can determine each defender's expected responsibility for threat created through arbitrary passes. The validity and robustness of this approach are evaluated on a uniquely extensive cross-gender and cross-competition data set, including positional and event data from 64 matches of the men's World Cup, 116 matches of the women's German Bundesliga and 336 matches of the men's German 3. Liga. In the absence of a ground truth, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines multiple relatively weak proxies into robust summary scores. We find a validity score that is improved by around 1 standard deviation compared to the best action-based metric and demonstrate that many popular measures show limited validity. The "blame" for conceding high-value actions shows especially strong correlations with external ratings and market values, making it the first published metric in football to reliably measure positioning errors. All code underlying this work is publicly available to support reproducibility and further research.