A cubical formalisation of conditional independence, Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation soundness
条件独立性、贝叶斯条件化和Pearl的d-分离正确性的立方形式化
Karen Sargsyan
AI总结 本文在Cubical Agda中形式化概率单子,提出一种高阶归纳类型,通过引入贝叶斯公式修正标准凸代数交换公理的不足,并验证了半图oid公理、do-演算规则和d-分离定理。
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自Stone以来概率单子形式化中常见的标准凸代数交换公理被证明不足以支持完整的贝叶斯条件化。我们在Cubical Agda中精确地说明了这一点:有限分布作为高阶归纳类型,条件独立性作为核之间的立方路径,递归贝叶斯条件化作为全支撑片段上的全函数。将条件化提升到完整的HIT暴露了一个结构上的不匹配——重新排列的四叶混合的两半携带由贝叶斯公式关联的不同贝叶斯权重,而不是标准公理提供的单个共享内部权重。我们展示了解决这一问题的最小推广,并证明了标准形式是退化情况,其中两个内部权重重合。基于这一观察,我们在抽象有序域接口之上以构造性方式验证了代数上下文,无需任何公设:绑定交换性、四个半图oid公理、交(通过结构性Σ-见证简化为收缩,无需正性)、Pearl的do-演算规则1、2和3的核形式、有限类型贝叶斯条件化,以及任意n顶点有限有向无环图(DAG)上干预和贝叶斯形式的Pearl的d-分离定理(正确性)。概率单子也被验证为马尔可夫范畴;抽象接口在Q处实现。
The standard convex-algebra interchange axiom, common to probability-monad formalisations since Stone, is provably too weak to support full Bayesian conditioning. We make this precise in Cubical Agda: finite distributions as a higher inductive type, conditional independence as a cubical path between kernels, recursive Bayesian conditioning as a total function on a full-support fragment. Lifting conditioning to the full HIT exposes a structural mismatch -- the two halves of the rearranged 4-leaf mix carry distinct Bayesian weights related by Bayes' formula, not the single shared inner weight the standard axiom provides. We exhibit the minimal generalisation that resolves this and prove the standard form is the degenerate case where the two inner weights coincide. Around this observation we verify the algebraic context constructively, with zero postulates above an abstract ordered-field interface: bind commutativity, the four semi-graphoid axioms, intersection (reduced to contraction via structural $Σ$-witnesses, without positivity), Pearl's do-calculus Rules~1, 2, and~3 in kernel form, finite-type Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation theorem (soundness) on arbitrary $n$-vertex finite directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in both interventional and Bayesian forms. The probability monad is also verified as a Markov category; the abstract interface discharges at $Q$.