Neural-Parameterized Cellular Automata for Wildfire Spread
神经参数化元胞自动机用于野火蔓延
Maksym Zhenirovskyy, Ion Matei, Rohit Vuppala, Takuya Kurihana, Hon Yung Wonga
AI总结 提出一种混合深度学习参数化概率元胞自动机框架,利用多尺度卷积神经网络动态生成空间变化参数,在保持物理可解释性的同时捕捉复杂环境交互,在六次大型野火中实现72小时IoU>0.6的预测。
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- 16 pages, 9 figures
传统野火模型依赖刚性、低维参数和静态燃料图,常常低估火势蔓延。为解决这一弱点,我们引入了一个在JAX中实现的混合深度学习参数化概率元胞自动机(CA)框架。我们的方法采用多尺度卷积神经网络动态生成控制火势蔓延概率、风向对齐和坡度影响的空间变化参数。这种混合设计捕捉了复杂的非线性环境交互,同时保留了底层三态CA的物理可解释性。JAX实现支持硬件加速和基于梯度的参数校准。在美国西部六次大规模野火上的评估显示,在10天数据同化窗口期间模型逐步拟合观测到的火线后,该模型在72小时预测范围内保持IoU>0.6;由此产生的预测是在这些观测中已编码的抑制机制下火势增长的条件投影。
Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread. To address this weakness, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning parameterized Probabilistic Cellular Automata (CA) framework implemented in JAX. Our approach employs a Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Network to dynamically generate spatially varying parameters that govern fire-spread probability, wind alignment, and slope influence. This hybrid design captures complex, nonlinear environmental interactions while preserving the physical interpretability of the underlying three-state CA. The JAX implementation enables hardware acceleration and gradient-based parameter calibration. Evaluated on six large-scale wildfires in the western United States, the model maintains IoU > 0.6 over 72-hour forecast horizons after a 10-day data assimilation window during which the model is fitted incrementally to observed perimeters; the resulting forecast is a conditional projection of fire growth under the suppression regime already ncoded in those observations.