2606.07129
2026-06-10
stat.AP
版本更新
Collaborative estimation and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasting in the United States
美国SARS-CoV-2变异株实时预测的协作估计与评估
Isaac MacArthur, Thomas Robacker, Bren Case, Spencer J. Fox, Dylan H. Morris, Evan L. Ray, Benjamin Rogers, Becky Sweger, Natalie M. Linton, John Huddleston, Andrew Magee, Zachary Susswein, Jover Lee, Trevor Bedford, Marlin D. Figgins, Ehsan Suez, Rajath Prabhakar, Tomas Leon, Brent Siegel, Mugdha Thakur, Christopher M. Hoover, Rahil Ryder, Jesse Elder, Michael Kupperman, Ruian Ke, Emma Goldberg, Sebastian Funk, Maryclare Griffin, Nicholas G. Reich, Kaitlyn E. Johnson
AI总结
本文介绍美国SARS-CoV-2变异株实时预测中心的构建,评估五种模型和基线模型在2024-2025年流感季的表现,发现基线模型整体表现良好,测序量低的地区模型性能波动更大。