Images represent objects characterized by contours and textures. From a statistical perspective these features can be defined as observations of continuous random functions. However, most existing approaches rely on pixel-based discretizations which lead to high-dimensional representations and heavy computational costs. In this note, we introduce an alternative more frugal representation. This representation assumes that the object has a star-shaped domain interior. Under this condition, we explore the analysis of images from a functional data analysis perspective. The proposed framework is illustrated on a real data supervised image classification problem.

This paper proposes a two-sample homogeneity test based on entropic optimal transport (EOT) maps from a common reference distribution -- the uniform law on the unit ball. The test statistic is the squared $L^2$-distance between the two empirical EOT maps. For fixed entropic regularization parameter, we prove that the population map discrepancy is identifiable, derive a functional central limit theorem for the empirical map difference under the null, and establish the Gaussian quadratic-form null limit. We also prove consistency against fixed alternatives and characterize local asymptotic power under contiguous alternatives. A weighted multiplier bootstrap is proposed to calibrate the non-pivotal null distribution, and its validity is established. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed EOT-map test has reliable finite-sample size control and exhibits competitive power compared with other existing methods. The method is particularly powerful for location alternatives and, beyond a single scalar discrepancy, it provides additional diagnostic information on how the two distributions differ. Finally, a real data application concludes the paper.

In large-scale complex surveys such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), some outcomes are measured only in selected years, leaving incomplete records across survey waves. We develop a weighted conformal prediction framework that enables valid population-level prediction of unobserved outcomes using information from earlier surveys. The method accommodates covariate shift, where both continuous and categorical covariate distributions evolve over time while survey design affects representativeness. It integrates subgroup-specific density ratio and subgroup-proportion estimation to approximate likelihood ratios between the historical and target covariate distributions, and we establish coverage guarantees for the resulting prediction sets. Simulation studies and an application predicting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for the current U.S. population show that the proposed approach achieves coverage close to the nominal level and improved efficiency over existing methods, particularly when covariate distributions are complex or unknown.

Covariate measurement error is pervasive in epidemiological research and distorts estimated exposure-outcome associations, yet correction methods have been studied almost exclusively under linear modelling assumptions. Their behaviour when the underlying association is non-linear and is itself estimated with flexible regression, remains poorly characterised. We report a blinded, multi-stage neutral comparison simulation study, conducted within the STRATOS initiative, evaluating measurement error correction coupled with flexible modelling of functional form. Six families of correction methods (pointwise and coefficient-based Simulation Extrapolation [SIMEX], Bayesian inference on the logit and risk scales, Multiple Imputation [MI], and Regression Calibration [RC]) were each combined with B-splines (BS), penalised splines (PS), fractional polynomials (FP), and natural splines (NS), yielding 23 analytic methods. Methods were applied to case-control data generated under five functional forms (J-shape, linear, two threshold models, and saturation) across simulated datasets spanning varying sample sizes, replication substudy sizes, error magnitudes, and error distributions, with classical additive error and a replication substudy for error calibration. Performance was assessed by the log mean squared error of the estimated function over the central 95 % of the exposure distribution. Pointwise SIMEX was the most accurate and most robust approach overall, followed by Bayesian methods and RC when paired with PS, FP, or NS; MI performed less well, and Bayesian estimation with unpenalised BS performed worst. PS, FP, and NS were near-equivalent, whereas BS was consistently inferior. No single method dominated across all scenarios, underscoring the value of sensitivity analyses.

We study distributional data under sparse sampling where each unit is represented by a probability distribution on the real line observed only through a small i.i.d.~sample. A natural notion of central tendency for one-dimensional distributional data is the Wasserstein barycenter, whose quantile function is the pointwise average of the unit-level quantile functions. We focus on pointwise estimation of the Wasserstein barycenter quantile function: at a given quantile level, the target is the population mean of the corresponding unit-level quantiles. A naive plug-in estimator is the empirical Wasserstein barycenter, which treats observed unit-level empirical distributions as the true latent unit-level distributions. Under sparse sampling, however, this estimator can be severely biased. We propose an approach that avoids directly estimating either the unit-level distributions or the full population law of distributions. We start with the more ambitious goal of characterizing the distribution of latent unit-level quantiles at a given quantile level. We show that this distribution can be written in terms of the marginal distributions of the unit-level CDF values, which can be estimated using binomial mixture methods. This motivates our estimator, the marginal-constructed barycenter (MCB) estimator, obtained by taking the mean of the estimated distribution of latent unit-level quantiles. We establish conditions under which the MCB estimator is pointwise consistent and asymptotically normal, and show through simulations that it can substantially outperform the empirical Wasserstein barycenter under sparse sampling. We illustrate the method in an analysis of HIV-1 sequence data from the HVTN 502/503 vaccine efficacy trials, using the barycenter to summarize and compare within-participant distributions of viral sequence features when only a small number of sequences are available per participant.

Biodiversity measures are often used descriptively: one computes a diversity index from an observed or estimated community composition and maps the resulting values across space. Conservation planning, however, also requires a site-specific benchmark against which the observed community can be compared. This chapter develops an information-geometric framework for such \emph{potential diversity} and the associated \emph{diversity gap}. The central object is a pair of probability vectors on the species simplex: an observed or realized composition \(p^{\mathrm{obs}}\), and a potential composition \(p^{\mathrm{pot}}\) obtained by a constrained variational principle. The gap is then defined by comparing a diversity functional at these two compositions. The framework is developed for both Hill-type diversity, which measures abundance and evenness, and Rao's quadratic entropy, which incorporates trait, phylogenetic, or ecological dissimilarities among species. A spatial point-process interpretation clarifies how local ecological capacities can be defined before passing to the simplex. Escort constraints, capacity constraints, and divergence projections then provide a unified way to define nontrivial benchmarks beyond the uniform distribution. The resulting formulation separates two distinct questions: how diverse a community is, and how far it is from a locally admissible potential benchmark. It also connects the ecological idea of dark diversity with a continuous, abundance-weighted comparison on the probability simplex. We also outline a dynamic extension in which capacities, species migration, and climate-driven shifts vary over time. Empirical implementation with large-scale citizen-science biodiversity data and trait databases is left for future work.

Variable importance produced by Random Forests (RF) is used widely in statistical data analysis, and has played an important role in a variety of tasks such as assisting model interpretation, model selection and diagnosis, and cost-bounded learning etc. However, the calculation of variable importance in RF does not take into account of the correlations among variables, and variables that are correlated to many other variables tend to receive a lower importance index or being completely masked (i.e., with an importance index near zero) by other strongly correlated variables. To prevent influence from unwanted correlated variables in calculating variable importance, we propose to group variables by their conditional correlations (conditional on the response variable). We explore two computationally efficient options, with one grouping variables individually, and then separates the variable of interest from all correlated variables, while the other uses clustering to group variables according to their pair-wise conditional correlations. Our experiments show that both lead to sensible corrections to the importance of variables.

We develop a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms. At the theoretical level, we establish super-uniformity of conformal prediction under distributional invariance conditions weaker than exchangeability. A key result handles the case where the sample itself is a random subset of the index set, a setting not covered by existing theory, via a novel bijection argument that constructs an explicit measure-preserving correspondence between events. In addition, we propose conformal prediction procedures for jointly exchangeable arrays, including full conformal, split conformal, a row-column approach exploiting similarities within rows and columns, and a selective conformal procedure achieving mask-conditional validity. For missing elements, we establish asymptotic validity of a graphon-weighted conformal procedure under a nonparametric graphon model for the missingness mechanism. We further establish conditional validity results for both continuous and discrete responses; to the best of our knowledge, this is first formal proof of asymptotic conditional validity for weighted conformal prediction under a missing-not-at-random assumption. The proposed methods are illustrated on synthetic and real network data.

The win ratio is increasingly used to analyze prioritized composite endpoints in clinical trials, but standard implementations rely on deterministic pairwise comparisons and can perform poorly in the presence of censoring and endpoint-specific missingness. In such settings, unresolved comparisons are often treated as ties, leading to loss of efficiency and potentially biased inference, particularly when lower-priority outcomes are incompletely observed. We propose the probabilistic win ratio (PWR), a framework for estimating the classical win ratio under coarsened observation. The PWR replaces deterministic pairwise decisions with conditional probabilities of win, loss, or tie given the observed data, allowing partially observed comparisons to contribute fractionally while being explicitly penalized according to their uncertainty. Comparisons with greater coarsening receive smaller effective weight, whereas fully observed comparisons contribute as in the classical analysis, preserving the clinical priority structure. When outcomes are fully observed, the PWR reduces exactly to the standard win ratio estimator. Simulation studies show that the PWR maintains low bias and mean squared error across a range of censoring and missingness scenarios. Two clinical trial case studies illustrate complementary data regimes, demonstrating calibration in near-complete data and stability under substantial right censoring.

In many settings one is often interested in determining whether two networks share some joint structural connectivity patterns such as communities. However, while communities may be shared across networks, edge probabilities may differ significantly. Therefore, in this paper we consider testing a general null hypothesis that two networks have the same underlying subspace, which in particular includes the setting that communities are the same for either stochastic blockmodels or mixed-membership stochastic blockmodels (even if edge probabilities are different). We propose a test statistic based on the Frobenius norm of the difference of the leading subspace projection matrices, and we prove that our test statistic, after appropriate centering and scaling, converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as long as the average expected degree grows at least logarithmically in the number of vertices. We then provide estimators for the asymptotic mean and variance and show consistency under a stronger signal condition, and we give the local power of our test when the networks are sufficiently dense. Our theoretical results are based on a limit theorem for the projection difference of empirical and true eigenvectors which can also be viewed as the one-sample version of our test statistic, and this result may be of independent interest. We demonstrate our results through numerical simulations and an application to US Flight data.

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Clustered randomized controlled trials are often stratified or pair-matched to improve covariate balance and efficiency. Sample average treatment effects (SATEs) are commonly estimated by averaging stratum-level treatment-control mean contrasts -- an approach that is natural and widely used. We show that, in stratified clustered trials with heterogeneous cluster sizes, such estimators need not be consistent for the SATE. They can converge to the wrong limit even under correct randomization and without model misspecification. The source is a covariance between cluster sizes and treatment effects: stratumwise averaging mis-weights clusters in a way that produces bias of constant order, regardless of sample size. We study the Hájek (ratio) estimator as a robust alternative. By aggregating outcomes within treatment groups before taking their difference, it remains consistent in clustered trials that grow by increasing strata sizes or the number of strata. Despite that, its use in design-based analyses of clustered trials has been limited by the lack of variance estimators. We develop a design-based variance estimator that applies to any number of strata of any size, and show that it is asymptotically conservative, a property that holds even when some strata contain only a single treated or control unit. We also present tests improving the coverage of Wald tests when the number of clusters is moderate. The framework extends naturally to covariate-adjusted estimators via a variance orthogonality property.

Predictive Bayesian model comparison often relies on leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation criteria such as the expected log predictive density (ELPD). However, model rankings can be overly sensitive to outliers and tail mismatch because ELPD is based on the log score. We propose a score-matched generalized ELPD framework that replaces the log score by a Bregman scoring rule to update model parameters through a generalized posterior and to evaluate LOO predictive utility. Candidate posterior predictive distributions are ranked by out-of-sample utility under the chosen scoring rule, yielding a direct proper-score generalization of standard ELPD. We focus especially on the $β$-divergence family, where $β$ controls the sensitivity of predictive comparison to low-density observations. Under model misspecification, the procedure asymptotically selects the model whose predictive distribution is closest to the data-generating process under the chosen Bregman divergence. A simulation study and applications to microbial and forensic data show that the generalized ELPD can change the selected model through reduced sensitivity to low-density observations.

We initiate the study of nonparametric empirical Bayes denoising methods in the setting where both the latent variables and their measurements lie on a compact Riemannian manifold, and where the likelihood is a Riemannian Gaussian distribution. Our starting point is a novel Tweedie-Eddington formula for Riemannian Gaussian mixture models which identifies a certain surrogate oracle denoiser in terms of the marginal distribution of the measurements; it avoids the explicit computation of the posterior Fréchet mean (as required by the Bayes denoiser) via a first-order approximation, hence we refer to it as the "tangential" Bayes denoiser. We show that this surrogate oracle achieves nearly the Bayes risk in a low-noise regime, we construct a fully data-driven approximation of it using the spectral theory of the Laplace-Beltrami operator, and we establish finite-sample rates of convergence for the distance between the the surrogate oracle and its approximation. Contrasting the nearly-parametric rates from the Euclidean setting, the rates in the Riemannian setting are slower due to the singularities of the Riemannian Gaussian density at the cut locus of its Fréchet mean; in the special case of the circle we establish matching lower bounds which show that our proposed denoiser is minimax-optimal, and that the denoising problem exhibits a genuinely nonparametric rate of convergence. Lastly, we implement our methodology in two scientific applications: in astronomy, the sphere-valued problem of denoising the locations of gamma ray bursts; in structural biology, the torus-valued problem of denoising pairs of torsion angles of adjacent amino acids in a protein (i.e., the Ramachandran plot).

Probability theory provides a clear definition of what is meant by evidence in favor, against or none either way, of an event occurring for an unobserved response, via the principle of evidence. This is immediately applicable when carrying out a proper Bayesian analysis. Even without a prior, this imposes restrictions on reported inferences as these need to reflect the likelihood ordering. Relative belief inferences satisfy this requirement and, when the errors in these inferences are controlled, they also satisfy repeated sampling, or frequentist, requirements such as achieving given confidence levels. Relative belief inferences are considered here for the construction of intervals for uncertainty quantification in the context of a Poisson model for a signal with background noise. These intervals are contrasted with the well-known Feldman-Cousins intervals for this problem.

Clinical prediction models provide predictions for individuals, typically expressed as point estimates derived from a deterministic function, such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions hide inherent uncertainty. In contrast, Bayesian methods offer a coherent mechanism for uncertainty propagation, and allow the computation of the posterior mean as the measure of centrality of choice for clinical decision-making. However, Bayesian methods are not widely utilised in predictive analytics for healthcare. We investigated the feasibility and performance of a Bayesian adaptation of the commonly used frequentist framework for risk prediction modelling. We assessed (i) the use of shrinkage priors with complementary features (simplicity, user input, and automatic shrinkage) that enable Laplace/normal approximation of the posterior, and (ii) exact and approximate methods for efficient computation of the posterior mean. Using examples and simulations, we demonstrate that this Bayesian approach is feasible and improves predictive performance, while enabling uncertainty quantification with suitable coverage. In small-to-medium sample sizes, the gain in clinical utility by using the posterior mean over plug-in predictions was equivalent to the gain from using a noticeably larger sample size. Adapting the widely used parametric regression methods to an approximate Bayesian framework for prediction modelling is both pragmatic and clinically advantageous.

Post-treatment variables (PVs), such as treatment noncompliance, behavioral responses, intercurrent events, often modify the ultimate treatment effect on the primary outcome. However, existing methods provide limited tools for studying treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to PVs. Conventional heterogeneous treatment effect estimands condition on baseline covariates. However, similarly conditioning on the observed PV can induce endogenous selection bias for the treatment effect estimation. Principal stratification offers a rigorous framework for studying principal causal effects across principal strata, but principal strata are latent and their identification often requires stringent assumptions. This paper develops an assumption-lean empirical stratification framework for characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to PVs. We define empirical scores using the predicted potential PV responses based on baseline covariates, and use the empirical scores to construct empirically accessible subgroups. The resulting empirical-stratum treatment effects (ETEs) are identifiable under standard causal assumptions. We connect the proposed framework to principal stratification by showing that the average ETE recovers principal causal effects under the principal ignorability assumption, but remains informative under violations of this assumption. We further introduce projected ETE curves and develop efficient influence function-based estimators for the semiparametric inference. We illustrate the proposed framework with two real-world applications.

Textual event records, such as alarm logs, have become an increasingly common data source in engineering and manufacturing systems. Beyond identifying correlations or recurring patterns, engineers are often interested in understanding which types of events causally trigger or influence other events during system operation. Textual event descriptions may contain semantic clues about such causal relationships, and recent large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool for extracting these signals. However, relying solely on LLM-encoded textual information is insufficient for accurate causal discovery, since semantic patterns do not directly reveal causal mechanisms and may confuse causation with correlation or frequent sequential patterns. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{LMT}, a Bayesian causal discovery framework for engineering event data that jointly leverages textual descriptions and timestamps. Specifically, LMT first uses LLMs to extract semantic causal signals from event descriptions and constructs a prior distribution over causal graphs among event types or event clusters. It then incorporates temporal evidence through a Poisson-process-based likelihood, allowing the LLM-informed prior to be refined by timestamp-based statistical evidence. By integrating the textual and temporal information, LMT produces a causal graph that is both interpretable and data-supported. Simulation studies show that the proposed framework is effective across different settings and is especially advantageous in small-sample alarm-event scenarios.

``Block what you can and randomize what you cannot'' is the core principle for treatment effect estimation in randomized controlled trials. Although a wealth of allocation strategies has been developed, an explicit trade-off between the covariate balance achieved by blocking and the robustness guaranteed by randomization is seldom quantified. Motivated by the second law of thermodynamics, this work posits a new criterion that lowers the covariate imbalance while maximizing the entropy that quantifies contrast and allocation diversity. The resulting optimal strategy, termed the minimum free energy randomized design, is then derived, thereby formally achieving such a trade-off. To facilitate practical implementation, we further develop a computationally efficient dynamic allocation algorithm with theoretical guarantees. Using a finite-sample variance decomposition, the proposed randomization strategy is shown to control covariate imbalance while preventing unobserved heterogeneity from dominating the mean squared error, thus retaining minimax efficiency under the prescribed design constraints. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that our method achieves superior statistical efficiency and greater robustness than existing approaches.

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation (A-TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) by decomposing the ATE estimand into two components: a pooled-ATE estimand that combines data from both the RCT and external sources, and a bias estimand that captures the conditional effect of RCT enrollment on the outcome. This approach views the RCT data as the reference and corrects for inconsistencies of any kind between the RCT and the external data source. Given the growing abundance of external RWD from modern electronic health records, determining the optimal strategy to select candidate external patients for data integration remains an open yet critical problem. In this work, we begin by studying the robustness property of the A-TMLE estimator and then propose a matching-based sampling strategy that attempts to improve the robustness of the estimator with respect to the target estimand. Our proposed strategy is outcome-blind and involves matching based on two one-dimensional scores: the trial enrollment score and the propensity score in the external data. We demonstrate in simulations that our sampling strategy improves the coverage and narrows the widths of confidence intervals produced by A-TMLE. We illustrate our method with a case study of augmenting the DEVOTE cardiovascular safety trial by using the Optum Clinformatics claims database.

High-dimensional discrete data arise in many contemporary applications, including genomics, microbiome research, survey studies, and digital behavioral analysis. Clustering such data remains challenging because existing methods are often computationally demanding, sensitive to sparsity and discreteness, or designed for specific data types. We propose a deterministic dimension-reduction framework for clustering high-dimensional discrete observations. The method compresses each observation into a low-dimensional continuous representation through weighted sums defined by a scaled positional encoding, yielding a numerically stable transformation applicable to binary, categorical, and count-valued data. We establish several theoretical properties of the proposed compression. The mapping is injective, ensuring that distinct observations remain distinct after compression. Under mild regularity conditions, the compressed variables admit an approximate Gaussian representation, providing a theoretical basis for model-based clustering in the compressed space. We further show that separation between cluster centroids is preserved under compression, implying that location-driven cluster structure remains identifiable after dimension reduction. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate accurate cluster recovery across a wide range of realistic settings. The proposed approach is also computationally efficient, providing substantial speed improvements over commonly used dimension-reduction techniques often used in conjunction with clustering. Applications to Irish baby-name records and microbiome data further illustrate its practical utility. The proposed framework offers a scalable, computationally efficient, and broadly applicable approach to clustering high-dimensional discrete data.

We develop a distributionally robust formulation of principal component analysis that minimizes worst-case reconstruction risk over distributions lying within a Wasserstein neighborhood of the empirical measure. The Wasserstein neighborhood, viewed as an ambiguity set of distributions, is adaptively calibrated through a transport matrix $G$ to capture heterogeneous uncertainty across dimensions. The homogeneous case, in which G is a scalar multiple of the identity matrix, recovers classical PCA. Under a general transport matrix G, we derive a dual characterization of the associated minimax optimization problem and introduce a tractable surrogate objective function consisting of the square-root empirical reconstruction error plus a geometry-dependent residual exposure penalty. The exact and surrogate estimators are shown to be consistent for the population PCA subspace and asymptotically equivalent at the projector level. The transport geometry is allowed to be data adaptive, while the Wasserstein radius is calibrated via robust Wasserstein profile inference, yielding a data-driven radius of order $n^{-1/2}$. Comprehensive theoretical guarantees are established, including consistency and local Grassmannian asymptotics exhibiting an explicit Wasserstein-induced drift determined by the limiting transport geometry and calibration level. Numerical experiments and a real-data application demonstrate that the proposed method can substantially improve finite-sample out-of-sample performance under structured covariance shifts, moderate contamination, and certain same-distribution regimes.

We develop a class of data-adaptive shrinkage estimators for high-dimensional covariance estimation in which the shrinkage target is a Reynolds projection of the sample covariance under a finite symmetry group selected from a candidate library by held-out predictive performance. The class generalizes the convex shrinkage estimator of Ledoit and Wolf by replacing the scalar-identity target with a structured target derived from a symmetry group when one is available, and generalizes the group-symmetric maximum-likelihood estimator of Shah and Chandrasekaran by combining structural targeting with adaptive convex shrinkage and by selecting the group from data rather than treating it as prespecified. A two-tier procedure performs the group selection: a universal per-candidate evaluation based on held-out negative log-likelihood, optionally preceded by a domain-specific step that constructs the candidate library from structural priors. We establish a finite-sample regret bound for the held-out calibration of the convex combination weight, an oracle inequality for the data-driven group selection, and a quantitative sufficient-match condition under which the proposed estimator dominates Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage in Frobenius mean-squared error. The procedure is illustrated on six real-data problems spanning finance (S&P~500 daily returns), climate (NOAA OISST sea-surface temperature anomalies), genomics (TCGA-BRCA gene expression), radio signal processing (RadioML 2018.A), astronomical imaging (Galaxy10 DECaLS), and natural image patches (CIFAR-10 with a CIFAR-10.1 distribution-shift companion). An empirical comparison is also made against the Bayesian permutation-symmetry estimator of Chojecki and colleagues. Outside the few-shot regime, where structural priors carry the most information per observation, Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage remains the appropriate baseline.

Obtaining precise erosion measurements requires costly fieldwork, making it infeasible to directly survey large domains such as a province or river basin. To extend fieldwork results across such extensive domains, we propose a novel spatial prediction method that treats local erosion distributions as objects in the Wasserstein space. These distributions are mapped into square-integrable trajectories and represented via basis expansion, forming a multivariate random field that captures spatial dependence. By applying local regression and Kriging in this representation, our approach flexibly models and predicts erosion distributions at arbitrary locations. This framework improves prediction for functionals of the distribution, such as the mean and exceedance probabilities. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a misspecified parametric alternative and existing Fréchet regression approaches. We illustrate the approach with a detailed erosion analysis in Shaanxi province, China, where local measurements from surveyed watersheds are extended to predict erosion distributions across the entire province using covariates such as land use and elevation.

Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale. Restricting to the month of June to minimize seasonality, this work develops a range of machine learning models for generating realistic time series of surface wind vectors at a site in Lamont, Oklahoma based on more than 30 years of high quality measurements at the minute time scale. Such a generator could be used as an input into models from a range of disciplines, notably for wind energy, but also wildfire spread and aviation, among others. The data show complex diurnal structures in both wind speed and direction that would be challenging to capture with standard time series models, so we consider a number of machine learning approaches to producing a stochastic wind generator based on time vector-quantized variational autoencoders. We consider generating a day's worth of data at a time and generating a day of wind vectors conditional on the previous day's winds. We also study methods for incorporating a discrete weather state variable in the generator. We evaluate the generators using a wide range of formal and informal methods. The best of these generators can capture many but not all of the complex features present in the observational data. In particular, the best of our approaches accurately mimic diurnal changes in wind volatility but struggle to match the observed distribution of extreme wind speeds.

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable and is treated symmetrically during training. However, these assumptions are impractical in many settings, such as time series, where temporal dependence violates exchangeability and it is preferable to use predictors that leverage dependence by treating data asymmetrically. Recent work shows that split conformal prediction is robust to these issues, but sample splitting can reduce accuracy, motivating the study of methods that do not rely on data splitting in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a modification tailored to such settings, which we term the leave-a-window-out (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from cyclic exchangeability, which we introduce new coefficients to measure. Experiments on time series demonstrate that our method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

A Wishart kernel density estimator (KDE) is introduced for density estimation in the cone of positive definite matrices. The estimator is boundary-aware and mitigates the boundary bias suffered by conventional KDEs, while remaining simple to implement. Its mean squared error, uniform strong consistency on expanding compact sets, and asymptotic normality are established under the Lebesgue measure and suitable mixing conditions. This work represents the first study of density estimation for dependent data on this space under any metric. For independent observations, an asymptotic upper bound on the mean absolute error is also derived. A simulation study compares the performance of the Wishart KDE with that of the log-Gaussian KDE, another boundary-aware estimator based on the matrix-variate lognormal distribution proposed by Schwartzman [Int. Stat. Rev., 2016, 84(3), 456--486], and with the naive Gaussian KDE on the ambient Euclidean space. When estimating the stationary marginal density of a Wishart autoregressive process for several autoregressive coefficient matrices and innovation covariance matrices, the Wishart KDE exhibits the best overall accuracy and stability. The practical utility of the Wishart KDE is illustrated by estimating the marginal density of a one-year time series of realized covariance matrices computed from 5-minute intra-day returns on Amazon Corp. shares and on the Standard & Poor's 500 exchange-traded fund. All code is publicly available via the R package ksm to facilitate implementation of the method and reproducibility of the findings.

This paper proposes a vector autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, the use of factor methods ensures that departures from linearity are modeled parsimoniously. In particular, they exhibit functional pooling where a small number of nonlinear factors are used to model common nonlinearities across variables. Second, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically lessens the risk of misspecification. Third, Bayesian computation using MCMC is straightforward even in very high-dimensional models, allowing for efficient, equation-by-equation estimation, thus avoiding computational bottlenecks that arise in popular alternatives such as the time-varying parameter VAR. Fourth, existing methods for identifying structural economic shocks in linear factor models can be adapted for the nonlinear case in a straightforward fashion using our model. Exercises involving artificial and macroeconomic data illustrate the properties of our model and its usefulness for forecasting and structural economic analysis.

We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure. Unlike standard black-box forecasters, DCIts learns a time- and lag-dependent transition tensor explicitly factorized into two components: a Focuser, which selects relevant source series and time lags via a sparse masking mechanism, and a Modeler, which assigns signed coefficients to these selected interactions. This decomposition yields a local lag-adjacency structure and signed source-lag contributions for every forecast instance, enabling direct inspection of effective connectivity; when higher-order branches are activated, the same framework yields order-resolved elementwise polynomial contributions. Architecturally, DCIts uses a diverse bank of convolutional filters to capture temporal and cross-variable dependencies, which are mapped through a bottleneck network to the transition tensor. On controlled benchmark datasets with a known interaction structure, we demonstrate that DCIts achieves competitive forecasting error relative to a strong interpretable baseline while recovering stable, signed, lag-resolved interaction patterns. The framework thus prioritizes intrinsic interpretability, using forecasting accuracy as a faithfulness constraint rather than the sole objective.

The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a methodology for detecting multiple offline change-points using a minimum contrast estimator. Specifically, we address how to manage the continuous nature of the process given the available discrete observations. Additionally, we select the appropriate number of changes via a cross-validation procedure which is particularly effective given the characteristics of the Poisson process. Lastly, we show how to use this methodology for self-exciting processes with changes in the intensity. Through experiments, with both simulated and real datasets, we showcase the advantages of the proposed method, which has been implemented in the R package.

In modern time series problems, one aims at forecasting multiple time series with possible missing and noisy values. In this paper, we introduce the Sliding Mask Method (SMM) for forecasting multiple nonnegative time series by means of nonnegative matrix completion: observed noisy values and forecast/missing values are collected into matrix form, and learning is achieved by representing its rows as a convex combination of a small number of nonnegative vectors, referred to as the archetypes. We introduce two estimates, the mask Archetypal Matrix factorization (mAMF) and the mask normalized Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (mNMF) which can be combined with the SMM method. We prove that these estimates recover the true archetypes with an error proportional to the noise. We use a proximal alternating linearized method (PALM) to compute the archetypes and the convex combination weights. We compared our estimators with state-of-the-art methods (Transformers, LSTM, SARIMAX...) in multiple time series forecasting on real data and obtain that our method outperforms them in most of the experiments.

This paper presents a nonlinear parameter estimator for Wiener-type state-space models obtained as a fixed-point architecture that couples two affine minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimators: one for the unknown parameters and one for latent variables. The architecture retains the functional structure of the optimal affine MMSE parameter estimator while incorporating Dynamic Basis Statistics (DBS) estimates that summarize nonlinear basis-function evaluations. Two DBS construction strategies are developed, leading to two nonlinear estimator frameworks. The dual basis-parameter estimator combines an affine basis estimator with the affine parameter estimator, whereas the dual state-parameter estimator first computes affine state estimates and their covariances, then maps these state-estimate statistics through a Gaussian DBS operator to obtain DBS estimates. Both dual estimators admit fixed-point characterizations that alternate between estimating each component using the updated prior of the other, obtained from that component's plug-in estimate statistics from the previous iteration. The efficacy of the proposed methods is examined via extensive Monte Carlo experiments, showing that the dual basis-parameter estimator attains parameter mean-squared errors comparable to those of the purely affine parameter estimator, while the dual state-parameter estimator achieves the lowest parameter mean-squared error, outperforming both the dual basis-parameter and purely affine parameter estimators, as well as sequential Monte Carlo variants of classical Particle Gibbs and Expectation-Maximization schemes.

Tamed stochastic-gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) stabilizes large drifts by adding a denominator to the update. If this denominator uses the same stochastic-gradient sample as the update step, it can also change the conditional mean drift. We study deterministic denominators: the state-dependent envelope is fixed before the current oracle sample is drawn. The main question is how to design this envelope in practice. The design starts from an oracle score, builds a low-cost proxy score on pilot states, chooses activation thresholds by empirical quantiles, and then applies a small calibration layer. The analysis tracks three steps: proxy and threshold errors become envelope errors; envelope errors perturb one SGLD step; and the local residuals give stationary errors through a conditional perturbation bridge. Experiments show that the proxy-quantile denominators are close to oracle-score behavior, avoid the random-denominator mean-shift channel, and improve simple deterministic taming choices.

Data assimilation (DA) in subsurface flow entails calibrating model parameters to match observed data, typically at wells, while preserving geological realism. Latent diffusion models (LDMs) provide efficient mappings from high-dimensional geological model space to a low-dimensional latent variable, reducing the dimensionality of the inverse problem while maintaining plausibility in posterior geomodels. However, the high nonlinearity in the LDM mapping may degrade the performance of Kalman-gain-based ensemble updates. We present a systematic comparison of DA algorithms applied to large-scale 3D channelized geomodels with hierarchical geological uncertainty. We compare model-space and latent-space DA using the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA), and demonstrate a key trade-off: model-space updates achieve significant uncertainty reduction but produce geologically unrealistic posterior models, while latent-space updates preserve realism but exhibit limited uncertainty reduction. Motivated by this, we explore rigorous Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in the 3D-LDM latent space. To accommodate their high computational demands, we develop a fast surrogate flow model that approximates well-rate responses. MCMC and SMC are evaluated against ESMDA across three synthetic test cases, with DA performed in the LDM latent space. All models maintain geological realism due to the LDM parameterization. MCMC and SMC are consistent with one another and achieve lower data mismatch and more uncertainty reduction than latent-space ESMDA. Our overall results demonstrate that ensemble Kalman methods may provide overestimated posterior uncertainty with highly nonlinear parameterizations, while rigorous Monte Carlo sampling, enabled by fast surrogate models, can provide a more reliable alternative.

Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased simulations seldom produce them. Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical framework for analyzing such events: it characterizes the ensemble of reactive trajectories between two designated metastable states (reactant and product), and its central object--the committor function, which gives the probability that the system will next reach the product rather than the reactant--encodes all essential kinetic and thermodynamic information. We introduce a framework that casts committor estimation as a stochastic optimal control (SOC) problem. In this formulation the committor defines a feedback control--proportional to the gradient of its logarithm--that actively steers trajectories toward the reactive region, thereby enabling efficient sampling of reactive paths. To solve the resulting hitting-time control problem we develop two complementary objectives: a direct backpropagation loss and a principled off-policy Value Matching loss, for which we establish first-order optimality guarantees. We further address metastability, which can trap controlled trajectories in intermediate basins, by introducing an alternative sampling process that preserves the reactive current while lowering effective energy barriers. On benchmark systems, the framework yields markedly more accurate committor estimates, reaction rates, and equilibrium constants than existing methods.

Subsampled natural gradient descent (SNG) has been used to enable high-precision scientific machine learning, but standard analyses based on stochastic preconditioning fail to provide insight into realistic small-sample settings. We overcome this limitation by instead analyzing SNG as a sketch-and-project method. Motivated by this lens, we discard the usual theoretical proxy which decouples gradients and preconditioners using two independent mini-batches, and we replace it with a new proxy based on squared volume sampling. Under this new proxy we show that the expectation of the SNG direction becomes equal to a preconditioned gradient descent step even in the presence of coupling, leading to (i) global convergence guarantees when using a single mini-batch of any size, and (ii) an explicit characterization of the convergence rate in terms of quantities related to the sketch-and-project structure. These findings in turn yield new insights into small-sample settings, for example by suggesting that the advantage of SNG over SGD is that it can more effectively exploit spectral decay in the model Jacobian. We also extend these ideas to explain a popular structured momentum scheme for SNG, known as SPRING, by showing that it arises naturally from accelerated sketch-and-project methods.

Time-delay embedding is a powerful technique for reconstructing the dynamics of nonlinear systems. However, the reconstruction map is not always an embedding, a condition rarely verified in practice. When the reconstruction map is non-injective, multiple latent states may map to the same reconstructed state, leading to multi-valued $n$-step evolution. Consequently, the induced system no longer admits a deterministic closure, and the dispersion of future trajectories leads to ambiguity. In this work, we establish a measure-theoretic framework to quantify the ambiguity induced by multi-valued evolution and introduce intrinsic stochasticity to quantify the ambiguity over a finite horizon. For numerical implementation, we use the $k$-nearest-neighbor estimator to approximate intrinsic stochasticity under finite-resolution and finite-sampling settings. Numerical experiments on the synthetic and real-world datasets are consistent with the expectation: reconstructions closer to deterministic closure tend to produce lower scores, and deterministic predictors that take reconstructions with lower empirical closure scores as input are associated with lower rollout errors, suggesting that intrinsic stochasticity provides a new perspective for understanding failures of reconstruction and serves as a diagnostic for selecting reconstruction maps.

Combinatorial Optimization problems are widespread in domains such as logistics, manufacturing, and drug discovery, yet their NP-hard nature makes them computationally challenging. Recent Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) methods leverage deep learning to learn policies for constructing solutions, trained via Supervised or Reinforcement Learning. While promising, these approaches often rely on task-specific augmentations, perform poorly on out-of-distribution instances, and lack robust inference mechanisms. Moreover, existing latent space models either require labeled data or use an instance-independent latent distribution. In this work, we propose LGS-Net, a novel latent space model that conditions on problem instances, and introduce an efficient inference method, Latent Guided Sampling (LGS), based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Stochastic Approximation. We show that the iterations of our method form a time-inhomogeneous Markov Chain and provide rigorous theoretical convergence guarantees. Empirical results on benchmark routing tasks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance among NCO baselines.

Recent one-step generative models accelerate sampling by learning deterministic flow maps of the underlying dynamics. These methods rely on learning from ordinary differential equations, leaving open how to define an exact distillation procedure for stochastic dynamics. We introduce the Itô map, an any-step stochastic flow map that takes an intermediate state and Brownian path and predicts future states in a single pass. The Itô map formulation yields novel estimators for inference-time control by providing cheap, differentiable access to posterior samples. Empirically, Itô maps produce diverse, conditionally valid endpoint samples from fixed intermediate states and support strong steering performance on synthetic and image-generation benchmarks. These results establish any-step SDE integration as a useful primitive for posterior sampling and stochastic control.

Conformal predictive systems (CPS) output calibrated bands of CDFs under exchangeability. We extend generalized CPS to non-exchangeable settings by encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights. This yields shift-aware predictive systems that remain valid whenever the test point is, conditionally on the unordered sample, a weighted draw from the observed atoms. Since such weights are typically estimated, we introduce weight-uncertainty boxes and construct robust CPS envelopes with finite-sample or asymptotic confidence guarantees. We derive efficient computation for conformity-measure CPS, conformal binning, and conformal isotonic distributional regression. Experiments under covariate shift and feedback-driven biomolecular design show calibrated predictive bands that widen under stronger shifts and tighten as sample size increases.

We study models for human-AI teaming through the lens of statistical calibration. We assume the team consists of an AI model and human -- both of which are calibrated with respect to some partitioning of the feature space -- and expose how the calibration assumptions propagate into the teaming framework. In particular, we consider frameworks that either (i) combine human and model predictions or (ii) delegate prediction responsibility to either a human or model. We show via theoretical and empirical results that existing methods for combination do not preserve the human's degree of calibration. Methods for delegation (by the very act of delegation) preserve calibration of the downstream predictors but shift the burden onto the rejector meta-model that decides who predicts. The rejector must be calibrated finely enough to locate where each member is superior, a demand that grows with the human's expertise and becomes unattainable when the human relies on information the system cannot observe.

Convergence-rate analysis for classifiers is often conducted under either Tsybakov margin or Massart margin. The former is a relatively weak condition that typically yields polynomial rates, while the latter is substantially stronger but can guarantee exponential rates. In this paper, we introduce a new condition, called Boltzmann margin, that bridges the gap between these two regimes. It is weaker than Massart margin, generally stronger than Tsybakov margin, and can imply many of their properties under suitable conditions. We apply Boltzmann margin to the analysis of kNN classifiers and establish the first near-exponential convergence rates for kNN classification. We also present extensions of the main results and provide numerical evidence supporting the main theoretical implications.

We develop a decision-calibrated conformal framework for pacing decisions in streaming advertising. Pacing depends on uncertain future inventory, demand pressure, incremental response, and member-experience load. Instead of calibrating a generic forecast residual, the framework measures forecast error by its largest impact on the policies that could actually be deployed. The main theorem shows that the proposed score is the smallest valid uncertainty measure that uniformly protects all deployable pacing policies. Geometrically, it is the support function of the signed policy sensitivity set. Split conformal calibration gives finite-sample coverage for this score. A high-dimensional separation theorem shows that traditional residual calibration can be arbitrarily more conservative by paying for nuisance inventory dimensions, and a robust pacing result combines inventory, response, and experience uncertainty. On public-data-calibrated pacing replays built from Criteo Uplift and KuaiRand datasets, traditional conformal pacing remains unresolved with high residual radii of 7236.7 on Criteo and 4629.4 on KuaiRand. With the proposed decision calibration approach, the uncertainty radii are reduced to 18.4 and 278.6 respectively, with separate margins for value, delivery, budget, and member load. On Criteo, the proposed method certifies a less aggressive pacing policy than the point-forecast baseline, and reduces held-out any-violation rate from 16.7% to 3.3%, with zero budget and member-load violations. On KuaiRand, the choice remains unresolved. In a nutshell, the paper establishes that forecasts, response estimates, and member-experience models should be judged by whether they shrink the uncertainty that the pacing decision uses, as this leads to confident decisions that are not overly conservative.

Few-shot example retrieval is the dominant paradigm for grounding large language models (LLMs) in domain-specific text-to-SQL systems. However, the quality of the annotated example bank directly governs system accuracy, and expert annotation is prohibitively expensive. We formalize the active selection of these examples as a constrained experimental design problem over the intrinsic, low-dimensional manifold of semantic query embeddings. Unlike standard active learning frameworks, our setting introduces three critical challenges: varying, query-dependent annotation reliability (heteroscedasticity), strict requirements for spatial diversity across semantic topics (partition matroid constraints), and the inherent reality that the true covariance structure of the embedding space is unknown (misspecification). To address these, we propose a stratified greedy algorithm that maximizes a heteroscedastic mutual information objective. We prove that this objective remains submodular and approximately monotonic on the intrinsic manifold, yielding a theoretical constant-factor approximation guarantee. We establish a spectral bound demonstrating that this approximation guarantee degrades gracefully, rather than catastrophically, when the assumed surrogate kernel diverges from the true underlying data-generating process. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed strategy significantly reduces labeling effort while maintaining high text-to-SQL retrieval accuracy.

We investigate limitations of learning $\tanh$ neural networks from point evaluations under finite-precision computations and $L^p$ accuracy guarantees, building on Berner, Grohs, and Voigtländer (2023). Our approach is based on a novel construction of sharply localized bump functions via iterated $\tanh$ activations. Using this mechanism, we show that, in a finite-precision setting, no adaptive randomized algorithm based on $m$ samples can achieve a convergence rate higher than the Monte Carlo rate $O(m^{-1/p})$ in the $L^p$ norm, unless the sampling budget grows exponentially with the size of the network parameters and architecture. The results reveal fundamental limitations imposed by finite precision on the learnability of classes containing localized bump functions, extending previous results for ReLU networks to the $\tanh$ setting.

Despite its importance to applications in protein design, predicting protein properties like binding affinity and thermostability from sparse experimental data remains a significant challenge. Accordingly, we introduce a class of sequence kernels that exploit evolutionary substitution matrices as well as local linearity and demonstrate that the resulting Gaussian processes provide data-efficient models of protein property landscapes, frequently outperforming alternatives that rely on foundation model embeddings. Furthermore--by learning what are in effect structure-aware substitution matrices--we show that our kernels can readily incorporate structural information from foundation models. We demonstrate that these structure-conditioned kernels are well suited to multi-task learning across multiple protein property landscapes and can decisively outperform local supervised learning methods.

We explore whether intrinsic symmetries of the training data lead to conserved quantities during gradient-flow training of neural networks. Under the assumption that the loss function is analytic and non-polynomial, we prove that data symmetries generically do not induce any additional integrals of motion. For mean squared error (MSE) loss, on the other hand, there are situations in which data augmentation yields extra conserved quantities. We build a framework, utilizing \emph{tensorizable networks} to describe this phenomenon. Tensorizable networks are a family of architectures whose dependence on parameters and inputs can be separated using an intermediate representation. They include linear and polynomial networks, as well as Lightning Attention.

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e, narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes efficiency and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence levels during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like DOICR. Experiments on diverse datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs.

Mixture-of-Experts large language models (LLMs) scale efficiently through sparse activation, yet their deployment is fundamentally constrained by the large static parameter footprint of experts. Existing compression approaches either remove entire experts, disrupting routing topology and harming performance, or rely on unstructured weight pruning with limited practical efficiency. To address the limitations, we propose TENP, a structured Trapezoidal ExpertNeuron Pruning framework. Using a few samples, we identify and retain important experts, while applying expert neuron pruning (ENP) to less important experts, reserving model parameters in a trapezoidal pattern from shallow to deep layers. When evaluating expert importance, we jointly consider both the magnitude of the expert output and its ability to change the direction of the input vector. For ENP, we measure each neuron's projected contribution to the expert output to identify and retain important neurons. We conduct extensive experiments on the Qwen and DeepSeek models. Under a routing expert sparsity of 40% and an average of 63.76% activated expert parameters, the DeepSeek model suffers only a 1-point drop in accuracy compared to the full-parameter model. Moreover, it outperforms the full-parameter model by 10% on code generation tasks.

Large language models hallucinate confidently, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) essential for reliable deployment. Existing methods rely predominantly on token-level signals, leaving the geometric structure of intermediate hidden states underused. In this paper, we take the geometric complexity of hidden-state matrices as a measure of the global uncertainty of LLMs, while treating token-level uncertainty estimation as a local metric. We show that hidden-state geometric entropy (global uncertainty) and token-level entropy (local uncertainty) are statistically near-orthogonal, capturing distinct failure regimes for reliability prediction. In particular, global geometry recovers the confident-but-wrong failure mode that local signals systematically miss. Building on this, we propose Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU), an unsupervised, single-pass score that fuses the two signals via a multiplicative gate. Across three model families and six benchmarks, GLU matches or outperforms all unsupervised baselines while requiring only a single forward pass and remaining length-normalized and architecture-agnostic.

Post-training Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning typically focuses on deductive tasks such as mathematics and coding where correctness is verifiable. Yet, many real-world reasoning problems are inductive: agents must infer uncertain beliefs from sparse, ambiguous observations. There are challenges to using standard fine-tuning methods for inductive reasoning, including difficulties in curating large-scale, high-quality labeled datasets and in handling targets that are inherently distributional. In this work, we introduce a novel approach, called Program-based Posterior Training (PPT), to address these limitations: we use an LLM to generate diverse open-world scenarios as probabilistic programs, run probabilistic inference to produce distributional target responses to queries, and then fine-tune on these probabilistic soft labels. Using this approach, we fine-tune LLMs on 10,000 programmatically generated scenarios and evaluate on held-out motifs, human-labeled judgments, and external benchmarks. Overall, PPT substantially improves estimation accuracy on held-out inductive tasks, increases alignment with human judgments, and transfers to external benchmarks for estimation and calibration. Additionally, the gains in raw calibration are not subsumed by post-hoc temperature scaling, showing that the models have more deeply internalized uncertainty compared to output rescaling. Together, these results suggest that probabilistic-program-mediated fine-tuning is a promising approach for post-training LLMs to reliably perform approximate inductive inference.

We introduce a new tool, Express, for converting a non-causal attention approximation into a causal approximation with matching approximation guarantees. When combined with the state-of-the-art Thinformer approximation, Express improves upon the best known causal attention guarantees, delivering $\log^{3/2}(n)/s$ approximation error with only $O(s)$ memory and $O(s^2 \log^2(n))$ compression overhead for a sequence of length $n$. We pair these developments with an efficient I/O-aware Triton implementation, demonstrate substantial speedups over FlashAttention 2, and use Express to overcome four resource bottlenecks in the language modeling pipeline: long-context prefill, KV cache compression, long-form memory-constrained decoding, and long-form compute-constrained decoding.

This paper introduces range regularization for federated learning with linear systematic components to enhance statistical accuracy and induce cross-client regularity conducive to quantization, coding, and resource efficiency. Our approach identifies features with shared weights across different clients and adaptively clusters the weights of personalized features at extreme values, a process we refer to as polar clustering. Theoretical analysis of the associated estimators poses significant challenges due to the seminorm nature and non-decomposability of the regularizer. We develop new proof techniques for the nonasymptotic analysis of statistical accuracy and faithful pattern recovery. Moreover, a fast optimization algorithm that leverages varying degrees of local strong convexity is proposed to reduce iteration complexity. Experiments support the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed approach.

The Gromov--Wasserstein (GW) distance provides a framework for comparing metric measure spaces, regardless of their underlying structure or geometry. For network-based data, it enables direct comparisons of graphs with different numbers of nodes, without requiring an embedding or other abstraction. Furthermore, through a variant of GW known as fused Gromov--Wasserstein (fGW), it is also possible to incorporate node features in addition to graph structure. In this work, we implement $k$-nearest neighbors ($k$-NN) classification using the GW and fGW distances. We prove the universal consistency of the GW-$k$-NN classifier on the space of equivalence classes of metric measure spaces with finite support and uniform probability measure. By viewing graphs as finitely supported metric measure spaces equipped with the pairwise distance metric and a uniform probability measure on the nodes, we obtain universal consistency of GW-$k$-NN for the space of graphs. Likewise for fGW-$k$-NN, we prove universal consistency on the space of weak isomorphism classes of structured objects consisting of metric measure spaces with finite support and uniform probability measure and feature maps into Euclidean space, thus establishing universal consistency on the space of node-attributed graphs. Our numerical experiments show that GW-$k$-NN and fGW-$k$-NN consistently perform well across multiple graph datasets, suggesting that metric classifiers such as $k$-NN work well in the GW framework.

Current-status data arise when an event time is observed only through an indicator of whether it occurred before an examination time. This paper studies a nonparametric neural-network sieve maximum likelihood estimator of the conditional cumulative distribution function of the event time. Under Hölder smoothness assumptions, we establish an explicit convergence rate by combining approximation theory for rectified linear unit neural networks with empirical-process arguments. This result provides theoretical support for neural-network estimation and subsequent inference under current-status observation.

This paper develops a mean-field theory for a simplified single-layer causal multi-head self-attention model trained by cross-entropy minimization. Each attention head is treated as a particle in parameter space, and the empirical law of the heads is used as the large-head state variable. In the infinite-head limit, the averaged attention logits define a risk functional on probability measures, whose first variation generates a nonlinear Wasserstein gradient-flow equation. Unlike classical mean-field analyses of shallow networks that often focus on square-loss regression, the present model contains the softmax residual from the cross-entropy objective and the query-key-value structure of masked self-attention. We prove a static finite-head approximation bound for the optimal risk, characterize global minimizers through a variational support condition, and establish a quantitative finite-time propagation-of-chaos estimate comparing finite-head stochastic gradient descent with the limiting PDE. We then study the long-time behavior of the PDE: energy dissipation, convergence to the stationary set under compactness, convergence to a single stationary measure under topological or Kurdyka--Łojasiewicz assumptions, and explicit convergence rates under gradient-domination conditions. Finally, we prove local exponential stability under a Wasserstein strong-monotonicity condition and give verifiable stability and instability criteria for Dirac stationary measures. The results provide a rigorous baseline mean-field framework for attention-head training and clarify the additional compactness, landscape, and curvature assumptions needed to pass from stationarity to convergence and stability.

The analogy between deep neural network forward passes and renormalization group (RG) flows has been repeatedly noted in the literature, but existing treatments remain qualitative: depth is described as a coarse-graining scale, attention is likened to a partition function, and representations are said to flow toward fixed points. No existing work has defined a measurable RG order parameter, tested it under controlled variation of the input distribution, or made quantitative predictions that are empirically verified. We study the simplest architecture for which the analogy is tractable: a pure MLP residual stack trained on masked token prediction over synthetic Markov chain sequences with known spectral properties. We report three findings. (i) The effective rank of the residual stream decreases monotonically with depth after training, consistent with progressive integration of irrelevant degrees of freedom. (ii) This rank collapse is selective: it occurs for chains with short correlation length approximately 1 but is absent for chains with long correlation length approximately 7, measured at the position level to control for mean-pooling artifacts. The network preserves exactly the degrees of freedom relevant to the prediction task, the content of the RG relevance criterion. (iii) Inter-layer kernel drift is concentrated at one or two specific transitions, with the remainder of the network near a fixed point, consistent with a discrete fixed-point plateau. Together these findings constitute the first quantitative, position-level evidence that MLP residual networks implement a selective coarse-graining procedure governed by the spectral structure of the input distribution.

We study the generalization of ridge-regularized nonlinear least-squares models via on-average algorithmic stability, deriving error bounds for local minimizers in terms of a data-dependent effective dimension that reflects the geometry of the gradient model at the trained parameters, through the empirical Jacobian Gram matrix and a residual-curvature term. In the linear case, where the curvature term vanishes, this recovers the classical effective dimension of the Jacobian kernel covariance, but evaluated at the trained model rather than at initialization as is typical in neural tangent kernel analyses. We further bound this effective dimension via covering complexity of the gradient features, leading to guarantees that depend on learned geometry rather than parameter count. In particular, for manifold-supported data and piecewise Lipschitz Jacobians, the bounds scale with intrinsic dimension, while for one-hidden-layer ReLU networks, the mechanism can be made explicit through counts of activation-stable regions. Experiments on synthetic manifolds, clustered distributions, and benchmark datasets illustrate trained-Jacobian compression, the tightness of the residual-curvature linearization, and agreement between the stability bound and observed generalization gaps. A key feature of our bounds is the simplicity of their derivation, which follows from first principles using the Brascamp-Lieb inequality under strongly log-concave noise.

Existing analyses of the edge of stability (EoS) treat it as a global property of optimization. We show that it is also selective: the stability constraint redistributes learning across subsets of the training distribution, amplifying progress on some groups while suppressing progress on others. Using a branching intervention that enters or exits the EoS regime from the same training state, we causally demonstrate this trade-off and identify two necessary conditions for a group to benefit. First, its aggregate gradient must align with the top Hessian eigenvector. We isolate this mechanism with a controlled perturbation that preserves distance but randomizes direction, destroying alignment and eliminating the advantage. Second, the group must sustain non-vanishing gradient magnitude over time. Under cross-entropy loss, gradient saturation decouples confidently classified groups, shifting the advantage to output-outliers, whose gradients persist. Together, these results show that EoS functions not only as a stability boundary, but as a mechanism governing the allocation of learning across the data distribution.

Inductive matrix completion (IMC) is a variant of low-rank matrix completion that incorporates row and column side-information. In principle, it can reduce the effective dimension of the recovery problem from the ambient matrix size to the dimension of the side-information features. Existing theory, however, does not fully realize this advantage in the noisy setting: sample-efficient guarantees only apply to noiseless recovery, while noisy guarantees require sample sizes comparable to ordinary matrix completion. This paper closes this gap for noisy IMC. We analyze a nonconvex projected gradient descent algorithm with spectral initialization and prove that, under exact side-information, it achieves linear convergence and stable recovery at a sample complexity governed by the effective side-information dimension rather than the ambient matrix dimension. The key technical ingredient is a local regularity condition for the IMC loss that holds at this reduced sample size, despite the mismatch between the observation pattern and the side-information subspaces. We further extend the analysis to inexact side-information, showing that the same reduced sample complexity is preserved and that the estimation error degrades optimally with the level of subspace misspecification. Motivated by this trade-off, we also propose a penalized interpolation between IMC and ordinary matrix completion that balances sample efficiency against robustness to imperfect side-information. Simulations and experiments on the MovieLens dataset support the theoretical findings and illustrate the practical benefits of exploiting side-information in low-sample regimes.

Functional ANOVA offers a principled framework for interpretability by decomposing a model's prediction into main effects and higher-order interactions. For independent features, this decomposition is well-defined, strongly linked with SHAP values, and serves as a cornerstone of additive explainability. However, the lack of an explicit closed-form expression for general dependent distributions has forced practitioners to rely on costly sampling-based approximations. We completely resolve this limitation for categorical inputs. By bridging functional analysis with the extension of discrete Fourier analysis, we derive a closed-form decomposition without any assumption. Our formulation is computationally very efficient. It seamlessly recovers the classical independent case and extends to arbitrary dependence structures, including distributions with non-rectangular support. Furthermore, leveraging the intrinsic link between SHAP and ANOVA under independence, our framework yields a natural generalization of SHAP values for the general categorical setting.

Denoising diffusion models (DDMs) are state-of-the-art methods for learning densities from data across numerous domains, yet many aspects of the training and sampling pipeline remain poorly understood. In particular, noise conditioning requires practitioners to incorporate contrived unprincipled noise embeddings into neural network architectures and to use ad hoc noise schedules for sampling. To address these drawbacks, we provide a complete theory for \emph{blind denoising diffusion models} (BDDMs): a variant of DDMs where the noise amplitude is not passed into the neural network during training or sampling, obviating the need for the aforementioned design choices. We justify the correctness of BDDMs as a sampling algorithm under an assumption of low intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying data distribution relative to the ambient dimension. This assumption arises through the introduction of the Bayesian problem of estimating noise levels from a single noisy sample, which might be of independent interest. We empirically compare the performance of BDDMs to standard DDMs, showcasing the benefits of an \emph{adaptive} scheme which is rigorously justified by our analysis.

Asymmetric reinforcement learning leverages privileged information available during training to improve learning under partial observability. Existing asymmetric actor-critic methods typically assume access to the full environment state to condition the critic during training, which is often unrealistic in practice. We introduce the informed asymmetric actor-critic framework that allows the critic to be conditioned on arbitrary state-dependent privileged signals, and show that any such signal yields unbiased policy gradient estimates. This substantially expands the set of admissible privileged information and raises the problem of selecting the most informative signals for learning. To this end, we propose two novel informativeness criteria: a dependence-based test that can be applied prior to training, and a test based on improvements in value prediction that can be applied post hoc. Experiments on partially observable benchmarks and synthetic environments demonstrate that carefully selected privileged signals can match or outperform full-state asymmetric baselines while relying on strictly less state information.

Constructing the architecture of a neural network is a challenging pursuit for the machine learning community, and the dilemma of whether to go deeper or wider remains a persistent question. This paper explores a comparison between deeper neural networks (DeNNs) with a flexible number of layers and wider neural networks (WeNNs) with limited hidden layers, focusing on their optimal generalization error in Sobolev losses. Analytical investigations reveal that the architecture of a neural network can be significantly influenced by various factors, including the number of sample points, parameters within the neural networks, and the regularity of the loss function. Specifically, a higher number of parameters tends to favor WeNNs, while an increased number of sample points and greater regularity in the loss function lean towards the adoption of DeNNs. We ultimately apply this theory to address partial differential equations using deep Ritz and physics-informed neural network (PINN) methods, guiding the design of neural networks.

Operator-learning systems are not governed solely by total parameter count; for one query, the relevant bottleneck can be the model that must be loaded and evaluated. We study this distinction for classical neural operators on compact Sobolev subsets through a constructive comparison between routed mixtures of neural operators (MoNOs) and a fixed single-neural-operator construction. The comparison concerns expert-active complexity relative to that baseline, with total stored size and routing search accounted separately. A MoNO routes each input function through a tree to one expert. Our main theorem shows that every scalar uniformly continuous nonlinear operator with bounded output Sobolev radius on the approximation set admits a MoNO approximation whose active expert has smaller depth, width, and rank scaling than the analyzed single-neural-operator construction; for Lipschitz targets these expert quantities are bounded by $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$. The theorem turns localization into an operator-level accounting of active expert size, routing depth, and number of experts. We also prove a quantitative universal approximation theorem for the underlying neural-operator architecture, with explicit dependence on compact-set diameter and modulus of continuity.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have shown remarkable performances in system identification, particularly in nonlinear dynamical systems such as thermal processes. However, stability remains a critical challenge in practical applications: although the underlying process may be intrinsically stable, there may be no guarantee that the resulting RNN model captures this behavior. This paper addresses the stability issue by deriving a sufficient condition for Input-to-State Stability based on the infinity-norm (ISS$_{\infty}$) for Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The obtained condition depends on fewer network parameters compared to prior works. A ISS$_{\infty}$-promoted training strategy is developed, incorporating a penalty term in the loss function that encourages stability and an ad hoc early stopping approach. The quality of LSTM models trained via the proposed approach is validated on a thermal system case study, where the ISS$_{\infty}$-promoted LSTM outperforms both a physics-based model and an ISS$_{\infty}$-promoted Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network while also surpassing non-ISS$_{\infty}$-promoted LSTM and GRU RNNs.

Score-based diffusion models are a highly effective method for generating samples from a distribution of images. We consider scenarios where the training data comes from a noisy version of the target distribution, and present an efficiently implementable modification of the inference procedure to generate noiseless samples. Our approach is motivated by the manifold hypothesis, according to which meaningful data is concentrated around some low-dimensional manifold of a high-dimensional ambient space. The central idea is that noise manifests as low magnitude variation in off-manifold directions in contrast to the relevant variation of the desired distribution which is mostly confined to on-manifold directions. We introduce the notion of an extended score and show that, in a simplified setting, it can be used to reduce small variations to zero, while leaving large variations mostly unchanged. We describe how its approximation can be computed efficiently from an approximation to the standard score and demonstrate its efficacy on toy problems, synthetic data, and real data.

Existing theory suggests that for linear regression problems categorized by capacity and source conditions, gradient descent (GD) is always minimax optimal, while both ridge regression and online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are polynomially suboptimal for certain categories of such problems. Moving beyond minimax theory, this work provides instance-wise comparisons of the finite-sample risks for these algorithms on any well-specified linear regression problem. Our analysis yields three key findings. First, GD dominates ridge regression: with comparable regularization, the excess risk of GD is always within a constant factor of that of ridge, but ridge can be polynomially worse even when tuned optimally. Second, GD is incomparable with SGD. While it is known that for certain problems GD can be polynomially better than SGD, the reverse is also true: we construct problems, inspired by benign overfitting theory, where optimally stopped GD is polynomially worse. Finally, GD dominates SGD for a significant subclass of problems -- those with fast and continuously decaying covariance spectra -- which includes all problems satisfying the standard capacity condition.

This work develops a framework for post-training augmentation invariance, in which our goal is to add invariance properties to a pretrained network without altering its behavior on the original, non-augmented input distribution. We define this notion precisely and additionally introduce augmented encoders, which are probabilistic encoders that formalize augmentation-based encoding processes and that serve as our fundamental object of study. We introduce two losses for augmented encoders, namely, Markov-Wasserstein minimization and Wasserstein correlation maximization, and we demonstrate empirically that both losses can be used to train lightweight, one-hidden-layer MLP adapter networks $E_θ$ that, when appended to the latent space of a pretrained network $F$, do indeed lead to (approximate) post-training augmentation invariance. For example, on STL10 with $F=\text{DINO}$ features, the composite network $C\circ E_θ\circ F$, where $C$ is a linear classifier and where $E_θ$ is one of our proposed adapter networks, achieves 94% classification accuracy on arbitrarily rotated images, whereas a network of the form $C\circ F$ without the adapter $E_θ$ drops to 71% accuracy. Similarly, we can boost noise-invariant classification results from 58% up to 86%. Significantly, we obtain these results with no fine-tuning (the weights of $F$ remain frozen throughout), and our methods introduce little corruption to the original features, since $E_θ$ acts nearly isometrically on the non-augmented latent distribution. In contrast, we show that adapter networks trained with alternative candidate losses, specifically SimCLR and HSIC maximization, produce uncompetitive classification results and fundamentally corrupt the original latent space. Code available at https://github.com/keenan-eikenberry/augmentation_invariance

The level set estimation problem seeks to identify regions within a set of candidate points where an unknown and costly to evaluate function's value exceeds a specified threshold, providing an efficient alternative to exhaustive evaluations of function values. Traditional methods often use sequential optimization strategies to find $ε$-accurate solutions, which permit a margin around the threshold contour but frequently lack effective stopping criteria, leading to excessive exploration and inefficiencies. This paper introduces an acquisition strategy for level set estimation that incorporates a stopping criterion, ensuring the algorithm halts when further exploration is unlikely to yield improvements, thereby reducing unnecessary function evaluations. We theoretically prove that our method satisfies $ε$-accuracy with a confidence level of $1 - δ$, addressing a key gap in existing approaches. Furthermore, we show that this also leads to guarantees on the lower bounds of performance metrics such as F-score. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed acquisition function achieves comparable precision to existing methods while confirming that the stopping criterion effectively terminates the algorithm once adequate exploration is completed.

Joint Models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are frequently used to model endogenous longitudinal covariates alongside a time-to-event outcome. However, the model class borrows some limitations of the survival submodels, including the necessity for non-separation for each category of categorical covariates. We therefore incorporate Firth's correction into the frequentist estimation procedure of joint models in order to make the model class applicable in settings with separation cases. We derive the needed quantities for the correction term and implement it in the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for the parameter estimation in joint models. Our simulation study shows, that in data situations with separation issues, the Firth-corrected estimation procedure yields less biased estimates and the respective coefficients approach the estimated values observed in the non-separation cases. The application on a data set on satisfaction with and dropouts from vocational training demonstrates the advantages of the Firth-corrected joint model in a real world data set with separation. The results add to the literature on dropout from vocational training in Germany by explicitly modeling direct effects of socioeconomic and training-specific factors on the risk of dropout as well as their indirect contribution via satisfaction with the training.

Objective. Longitudinal datasets frequently contain missing weight and height measurements, and studies that combine data sources may index measurements against different growth reference standards (e.g., the WHO reference and CDC charts). We describe and evaluate a reproducible two-stage method that imputes missing anthropometry while making the choice of reference standard an explicit parameter. Methods. Stage 1 applies within-subject linear interpolation across visit dates (interior gaps only, no extrapolation). Stage 2 imputes remaining values from an age- and sex-specific growth reference using the LMS method by estimating each subject's centile, carrying it forward and backwards within the subject, defaulting to the 50th centile when a subject is never measured, and reading the expected value off the reference at the visit age. Different references can be supplied per data source so that the standard applied is recorded and auditable. We assessed recovery accuracy by masking and re-imputing a random 20% of observed values. All evaluations used computer-generated synthetic data. Results. On synthetic data (n = 60 subjects, 288 visits, 30% missing), the method resolved missingness to 100% completeness. Masked-value recovery gave a mean absolute error of 1.78 kg for weight (3.5% mean absolute percentage error) and 2.84 cm for height (2.0%), with negligible bias. Values recovered by within-subject interpolation were more accurate than those recovered from the growth reference, as expected, supporting the two-stage ordering. Conclusion. The method offers a simple, dependency-free, and auditable approach to anthropometric imputation, with explicit handling of differing reference standards and per-value provenance. Application to empirical data and propagation of imputation uncertainty into downstream models are the necessary next steps before use in substantive analyses.

Embedding a standardized whole-person health measure in electronic health records (EHR) could be instrumental to preventative care. The allostatic load index (ALI), calculated from ten component stressors across three body systems, offers a promising snapshot of holistic health. The ALI can be calculated from EHR data, but many components are missing, since not all patients undergo all tests. Using statistical modeling and machine learning, EHR data for $1000$ patients from a large academic health system were used to predict in-patient hospitalization (as a count or binary) from ALI, controlling for age and sex. Various methods were evaluated to fill in information gaps for patients' missing ALI components, including summary measures combining components or using them separately. Performance was measured using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and corresponding areas under the ROC curve (AUC). Count modeling of hospitalization did not improve upon binary, and logistic regression beat random forest. Overall, summary measures performed similarly, with the complete-case proportion (i.e., the proportion of non-missing components that were "unhealthy") performing best (AUC $= 0.64$) but by $\leq 0.01$. When using components separately, the pattern submodel approach most accurately predicted hospitalization (AUC $= 0.73$) in sample, but did not cross-validate as well (AUC $= 0.63$). All summary measures performed similarly. However, when including the ALI components separately, tailoring models to subsets of patients with the same missing data pattern performed best. Next steps include EHR implementation to enable prediction and support clinician decision-making at scale.

Resistance to first-line osimertinib in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the canonical example of predictable clonal evolution under therapeutic pressure, yet no public benchmark exists for training or evaluating computational models on the corresponding longitudinal patient trajectories. We introduce OncoTraj, a public benchmark of 813 EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving first-line osimertinib, harmonized from three real-world clinical-genomic sources: MSK-CHORD (672 patients), AACR Project GENIE BPC NSCLC (34 patients), and the FLAURA molecular-resistance supplement (107 patients). OncoTraj defines three locked tasks: (A) binary classification of progression by a fixed 12-month landmark, (B) regression of time-to-first-progression in days, and (C) six-class classification of the dominant resistance mechanism. We release the harmonized dataset, patient-level train/validation/test splits with an audited no-leakage guarantee, an open-source evaluation harness, and six reference baselines spanning a majority-class predictor, logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, an LSTM, and a multi-task transformer. With v1's single-timepoint snapshot features, no task clears chance on clean within-source evaluation: the uniformity of this ceiling across every model class localizes the limit to the input modality (single-snapshot tissue NGS rather than serial ctDNA), not the algorithm. The benchmark does recover a reproducible literature-consistent association: TP53 co-mutation raises the 12-month progression rate from 29% to 59% cohort-wide. OncoTraj establishes a reproducible, leakage-audited baseline and converts the modality limit into concrete design requirements for a serial-ctDNA-enriched v2.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects roughly 25% of global adults, posing substantial hepatic and cardiovascular risks. Yet, population-level screening tools remain inadequate. We present Method, a machine-learning framework for NAFLD risk prediction coupling gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction to yield calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees on individual risk estimates. It integrates a mutual-information-based stability selection procedure to identify a compact, clinically interpretable feature subset via bootstrap resampling, constructing prediction sets whose marginal coverage provably exceeds a user-specified confidence level. We evaluated Method on a multicenter cohort from Guangzhou, China (primary n=2,187; external validation n=412) using 78 candidate features across demographics, metabolic biomarkers, and lifestyle factors. Method achieves an AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, outperforming deep neural networks, TabNet, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Conformal prediction sets achieve 91.3% empirical coverage at the 90% nominal level. A three-tier risk stratification derived from these scores separates the population into distinct groups, with the high-risk subgroup showing a 12-month progression rate 4.7 times that of the low-risk tier. The selected features -- notably waist circumference, ALT, GGT, triglycerides, fasting glucose, and BMI -- align with established metabolic risk factors, providing biological plausibility.

The ability to estimate and predict pathogen variant dynamics can inform public health responses, including planning for increased transmission or severity, shifts in population immunity, or changes to vaccine or therapeutic effectiveness. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the importance of monitoring SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution through viral genome sequencing, enabling predictive models to estimate variant frequencies in the recent past, present, and short-term future. Collaborative forecasting Hubs provided a valuable way to centralize predictive modeling of epidemiological indicators such as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the pandemic; however, none existed for variant dynamics. Here, we discuss the creation of the United States SARS-CoV-2 Variant Nowcast Hub, designed to solicit estimates of the relative abundance of a specified set of SARS-CoV-2 variants at the U.S. state level. We discuss the design decisions and challenges in building the Hub and its scoring procedures. Using submissions from the Hub's first respiratory virus season (nowcast dates October 9th, 2024 to June 4th, 2025), we evaluate five individual models and a baseline model. We found that the baseline model, which pools sequences across the U.S., performs well overall, with most individual models performing similarly or slightly worse. Locations with lower sequencing volumes exhibited greater variability in model performance. Models submitted for a single location outperformed those submitted for all locations, potentially due to greater timeliness and magnitude of local data. Much remains to be investigated regarding relative model performance across different phases of variant emergence, and we conclude by proposing future directions within and beyond this Hub.

Real-time analysis of epidemic trends and forecasts can help support public health planning and the response to seasonal respiratory disease. Here, we present two models that were used in a 2025 New Zealand winter situational assessment programme for three respiratory pathogens: SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Data on SARS-CoV-2 were obtained from the national Covid-19 surveillance system; data on influenza and RSV were limited to a sentinel hospital surveillance programme. Models were run weekly from May to October 2025 on these real-time disease surveillance data and provided a quantitative representation of the current epidemic trend, along with estimates of the epidemic growth rate and 28-day ahead forecasts of case incidence. Model results and interpretation were provided in weekly reports to public health partners as part of a trans-Tasman winter programme run by the Australia--Aotearoa Consortium for Epidemic Forecasting and Analytics (ACEFA). We compare in-season results that were included in these reports to a retrospective analysis of the complete data for the season. We conclude that real-time analyses performed reasonably well, and identify some areas for improvement in future winter situational assessment programmes.

Composite endpoints that combine recurrent non-fatal events with a terminal event are increasingly used in randomized clinical trials, yet conventional time-to-first event analyses may obscure clinically relevant information. We compared two statistical frameworks tailored to such endpoints: the joint frailty model (JFM) and the last-event assisted recurrent-event win ratio (LWR). The JFM specifies proportional hazards for the recurrent and terminal events linked through a shared frailty, yielding covariate-adjusted, component-specific hazard ratios that account for informative recurrences and dependence with death. The LWR is a nonparametric, prioritized pairwise comparison that incorporates all observed events over follow-up and summarizes a population-level benefit of treatment while respecting a pre-specified hierarchy between death and recurrences. We first assessed the performance of the methods using simulations that varied both the gamma-frailty variance and the event rates. We next illustrated both approaches using two clinical application examples in oncology and cardiology, highlighting how conclusions depend on whether treatment primarily affects recurrent events, mortality, or both. The JFM provided component-specific estimates, while the LWR led to a summary measure of treatment effect with direction. Power was systematically improved with JFM, which thus appeared as the most reliable approach for inference and sample size estimation. Methodological extensions of the LWR to appropriately handle censoring and to formalize causal estimands remain a promising direction for future research.

Identifying frail older adults in an ageing population is essential for improving healthcare services. This study proposes a composite indicator to assess individual frailty levels using administrative healthcare data. Given the complex and multidimensional nature of frailty, a multi-outcome approach is adopted. Following an extensive literature review, a set of adverse health events is selected as proxies for frailty. These events were modelled using logistic classifiers, with frailty determinants (associated to adverse health events, selected using a gradient tree boosting) serving as covariates. The sensitivity and specificity of each classifier is used to compose their combined likelihood. From this, we derive an indicator capable of quantifying frailty across the population. The indicator shows robust performance across multiple outcomes and over time. Its primary innovation lies in allowing the use of diverse and outcome-specific sets of frailty determinants without any structural constraint. Overall, we offer an effective tool for quantifying frailty among older adults, potentially supporting health authorities in the prevention of frailty-related adverse events.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need for effective vaccine policies, but traditional clinical trials often lack sufficient data to capture the diverse population characteristics necessary for comprehensive public health strategies. Ethical concerns around randomized trials during a pandemic further complicate policy development for public health. Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers a promising alternative for vaccine policy development. However, direct online RL exploration in real-world scenarios can result in suboptimal and potentially harmful decisions. This study proposes a novel framework combining tabular Q-learning with microsimulation, where a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) serves as a digital twin environment simulator of the target population. This digital twin captures temporal associations between infection and patient characteristics to generate realistic individual disease trajectories, enabling safe and efficient policy learning without real-world interaction. Our tabular Q-learning model produces an interpretable policy table that balances the risks of severe infection against vaccination side effects. Applied to COVID-19 booster policies, the learned Q-learning-based policy outperforms current practices, offering a path toward more effective vaccination strategies. A project webpage introducing our work, including links to the software, a brief introductory video, and a step-by-step tutorial video, is available at https://public.websites.umich.edu/~jiankang/software/dtpl_website_umich/index.html.

The under-representation of women as sources cited in news media is one prominent representation of gender bias. Understanding where gender bias concentrates and how it evolves is essential for targeted mitigation. Because gender representation varies across topics, time, and reported-on regions, creating complex dependencies that are difficult to capture parametrically, we employ a nonparametric model to uncover latent cluster structures and temporal dynamics. We combine time-dependent Bayesian mixture modeling techniques with a Beta mixture kernel tailored to female quote shares, bounded between 0 and 1. Fitted on Canadian news articles from 2019 to 2024, the model reveals structural under-representation of women across all clusters, with news topic driving differences in female quote shares more strongly than the reported-on region. More than 85% of topic-region time series show no improvement toward gender parity over the observation period. Dynamic density estimation confirms that the aggregate distribution of female quote shares remains stable between 2019 and 2024. Our application demonstrates that advanced probabilistic models not only reproduce findings in gender bias research but also reveal latent dependencies and structural patterns that simpler approaches miss, encouraging future adoption of model-based frameworks for studying media bias.

In many decentralized supply chains, upstream firms do not observe market demand directly and instead infer downstream conditions from the order stream. A retailer's replenishment policy therefore plays a dual role: it governs inventory replenishment and shapes the information available for upstream forecasting. This creates a fundamental trade-off. Smoother orders improve upstream predictability, but delaying the response to demand can increase downstream inventory costs. We study how a retailer should optimally smooth demand in a two-tier supply chain with one retailer and one manufacturer when the manufacturer forecasts future orders from the retailer's order history. We propose Binomial Smoothing, a class of replenishment policies that implements delayed demand response by spreading each unit of demand over a finite horizon using binomial weights. The class is interpretable, easy to calibrate, and analytically tractable. Under weakly stationary Gaussian demand satisfying mild regularity conditions, we show that, for any fixed smoothing horizon, the Binomial policy minimizes the manufacturer's forecast error among all policies with the same degree of smoothing. It remains invertible, so the manufacturer can recover demand history from observed orders. More generally, Binomial Smoothing achieves a constant-factor approximation guarantee relative to an optimal policy. Our results yield a broader insight: replenishment policies should be designed not merely to reduce order variance, as in the traditional bullwhip measure, but to reduce the unpredictable component of orders. Carefully designed smoothing can improve supply-chain performance and partially substitute for information sharing, providing a concrete mechanism for coordination without collaboration.

Collecting the FIFA World Cup sticker album presents a classic public-goods and collective-action dilemma, in which completing a collection on one's own is highly inefficient. To evaluate how localized community norms shape collective efficiency, we use agent-based modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, parameterized with empirical field observations from exchange meetups in Natal, Brazil. Reflecting the tournament's recent expansion, the Panini 2026 album features 980 individual stickers, including 68 metallic specials. We contrast a standard baseline economy (1:2 special-to-normal exchange ratio) with an overprotective, strict strategy (exclusive special-for-special trading) and an altruistic, generous strategy (in which advanced players surrender needed duplicates to assist peers). Our findings reveal that overprotective rules trap liquidity and drive network-wide inefficiency. The strict strategy increases median completion costs by 10 packs and severely penalizes the least fortunate 5\% of collectors, adding 20 packs in large cities and 30 in small communities. Conversely, widespread generosity optimizes network liquidity and dramatically compresses the long tail of bad luck. Introducing the generous strategy reduces required purchases for the 5th percentile by 90 packs in large-scale configurations and 130 packs in smaller clusters. Furthermore, widespread altruism triggers a strong functional coupling that effectively synchronizes completion rates across the network. This study demonstrates that while rigid, protective norms degrade collective welfare, generosity successfully mitigates pack-draw variance, transforming an expensive, isolated hobby into a resilient, highly efficient public good.

The trapping probability, $ψ$, as defined in Kovacevic and Pflug (2011), is modelled by assuming proportional capital losses, both in the case where there is no insurance and in the case where insurance is purchased by the household. Insurance coverage is likewise proportional, mirroring the structure of quota-share contracts, which are both prevalent in practice and analytically convenient. New closed formulae for $ψ$ are obtained in the case of no insurance when the distribution of the remaining proportion of capital is a power law, extending the results in Kovacevic and Pflug (2011). When proportional insurance is acquired and the remaining proportion of capital is uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$, $ψ$ satisfies a non-local differential equation whose analysis is based on the properties of diffusion processes. The non-local nature of the equation can be addressed using iterative solution methods, leading to a constructive determination of the trapping probability. Constraints on the parameters governing the capital process are derived in both the uninsured and insured cases to prevent the certainty of trapping. Numerical calculations are used to determine the trapping probability for the insured process and to illustrate the impact of different parameters. Consequences on the trapping probability for vulnerable non-poor populations with initial capital slightly above the poverty line are discussed.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) can exhibit problematic memorization of individual training examples. Empirical privacy auditing (EPA) quantifies this risk by measuring realistic data leakage on membership inference (MI) or reconstruction attacks. A key challenge in EPA is designing ``canary'' examples that are mixed with the privacy-sensitive training data. We propose generating synthetic canaries via high-temperature sampling ($T \geq 0.8$) from LLMs, using prompts tailored to the privacy-sensitive training data. These canaries act as high-influence outliers, ensuring high identifiability and hence strong audits. Further, since the canaries are themselves non-private, they are inspectable and can be inserted with repetition without jeopardizing the privacy of the real data. An important use of models fine-tuned on privacy-sensitive data is the generation of synthetic data. This also comes with privacy risk. We introduce a powerful synthetic data audit based on fine-tuning an auxiliary model on the synthetic data. Auditing the auxiliary model for the original canaries then provides a strong estimate of the privacy leakage through the synthetic data. Finally, leveraging our strong auditing methodologies, we perform a systematic investigation into the interacting effects of model capacity and canary entropy on memorization.

The literature on test set contamination largely focuses on detection, but the correction of contaminated test scores is underexplored. Our core proposal is to spike the training data by intentionally contaminating some test examples at known rates. The spiked examples can then be used to calibrate predictors of model memorization which enable principled statistical correction of inflated test scores. To evaluate different correction estimators, we first present a simulation framework based on the Hubble models. Hubble models come in minimal pairs, where the perturbed model was deliberately contaminated with several test sets, while the standard model was not, serving as the counterfactual and correction target. We consider estimators that use information from a memorization predictor, correctness predictor, or both. In simulation, we establish basic statistical intuitions and show that estimators leveraging memorization and correctness information are better than naive estimation which makes no correction at all. We then instantiate several memorization and correctness predictors, and find that simple predictors such as Platt-scaled membership inference metrics provide good signal for correction. Finally, we examine the practical considerations of spiking. Simple memorization predictors need no more than 10 examples for calibration and often transfer from one dataset to another. Taken together, spiking is a promising solution for test set contamination.

Labeling a training set is often expensive and susceptible to errors, making the design of robust loss functions for label noise an important problem. The symmetry condition provides theoretical guarantees for robustness to such noise. In this work, we study a symmetrization method arising from the unique decomposition of any multi-class loss function into a symmetric component and a class-insensitive term. In particular, symmetrizing the cross-entropy loss leads to a linear multi-class extension of the unhinged loss. Unlike in the binary case, the multi-class version must have specific coefficients in order to satisfy the symmetry condition. Under suitable assumptions, we show that this multi-class unhinged loss is the unique convex multi-class symmetric loss. We also show that it has a fundamental local role: the linear approximation of any symmetric loss around score vectors with equal components is equivalent to the multi-class unhinged loss. We then introduce SGCE and alpha-MAE, two loss functions that interpolate between the multi-class unhinged loss and the Mean Absolute Error while allowing control of the beta-smoothness of the loss. Experiments on standard noisy-label benchmarks show competitive performance compared with existing robust loss functions.

Although some very common test beds exist for assessing the performance of clustering methods, large scale benchmarking is typically limited to relatively simplistic simulation set-ups. Here we describe the production and curation of close to 3000 synthetic data sets, derived from more than 200 publicly available data sets; the majority of which arose from real-world applications. By fitting a flexible non-parametric distribution to each base data set we are able to retain much of the nuance in real-world data which is difficult to reproduce in standard simulations, while also producing data sets whose sizes are sometimes substantially greater than the data sets from which they are derived. The synthetic data sets, plus an accompanying R package, are available for download from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/ClusBench.

Reconstruction-based methods are widely used for time series anomaly detection, where models are trained to reconstruct subsequences, and anomalies are identified through reconstruction errors. However, reported results are often hard to compare due to heterogeneous evaluation practices and underspecified inference procedures. In this paper, we revisit reconstruction-based anomaly detection in the univariate offline setting and study the role of the inference stride, which controls whether subsequences are processed as disjoint windows or with overlap. We propose a unified training, tuning, and multi-seed evaluation protocol on the curated TSB-AD benchmark, and study how overlapping inference affects anomaly detection performance for a range of reconstruction models, including PCA-based baselines, DLinear, an AutoEncoder, TimesNet, and Transformer variants. The results show that across all models, overlapping windows yield consistent improvements, with average relative gain up to +28%, and can alter method rankings. We further analyze variability across datasets, random seeds, and hyperparameter configurations. Finally, we complement the benchmark study with an evaluation on the full UCR archive using localization criteria aligned with sliding-window reconstruction. Overall, our results highlight that reconstruction-based anomaly detection performance depends not only on model architecture and training, but also on inference choices, motivating a clear and reproducible protocol. Our results show that reconstructionbased baselines achieve strong performance on both TSB-AD and UCR benchmarks, supporting them as competitive and practical approaches for univariate time series anomaly detection.

TorchKM is an open-source library for kernel machines, including support vector machines, kernel logistic regression, and kernel quantile regression, with GPU acceleration. The library features a scikit-learn-style API and is designed to exploit GPU-friendly linear algebra, accelerating the full training and model-selection pipeline through intelligent reuse of matrix operations. Benchmarks show competitive predictive performance with substantial speedups over standard baselines. The efficiency and programmable design also make TorchKM a kernel-learning component for AI-driven workflows. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/YikaiZhang95/torchkm, and the package can be easily installed via PyPI.

We present mlr3mbo, a modular toolbox for Bayesian optimization in R. mlr3mbo supports single- and multi-objective optimization, multi-point proposals, batch and asynchronous parallelization, and robust error handling. While it can be used for many standard Bayesian optimization variants in applied settings, researchers can also construct custom Bayesian optimization algorithms from its flexible building blocks. In addition to an introduction to the software, its design principles, and its building blocks, the paper presents two extensive empirical evaluations on the surrogate-based benchmark suite YAHPO Gym. To identify robust default configurations for both numeric and mixed-hierarchical optimization regimes, and to gain further insights into the respective impacts of individual settings, we run a coordinate descent search over the mlr3mbo configuration space and analyze its results. Furthermore, we benchmark mlr3mbo against a wide range of established optimizers, including HEBO, SMAC3, Ax, and Optuna, and find that it performs on par with state-of-the-art.

AI-powered answer engines are inherently non-deterministic: identical queries submitted at different times can produce different responses and cite different sources. Despite this stochastic behavior, current approaches to measuring domain visibility in generative search typically rely on single-run point estimates of citation share and prevalence, implicitly treating them as fixed values. This paper argues that citation visibility metrics should be treated as sample estimators of an underlying response distribution rather than fixed values. We conduct an empirical study of citation variability across three generative search platforms--Perplexity Search, OpenAI SearchGPT, and Google Gemini--using repeated sampling across three consumer product topics. Two sampling regimes are employed: daily collections over nine days and high-frequency sampling at ten-minute intervals. We show that citation distributions follow a power-law form and exhibit substantial variability across repeated samples. Bootstrap confidence intervals reveal that many apparent differences between domains fall within the noise floor of the measurement process. Distribution-wide rank stability analysis further demonstrates that citation rankings are unstable across samples, not only among top-ranked domains but throughout the frequently cited domain set. These findings demonstrate that single-run visibility metrics provide a misleadingly precise picture of domain performance in generative search. We argue that citation visibility must be reported with uncertainty estimates and provide practical guidance for sample sizes required to achieve interpretable confidence intervals.

Indirect treatment comparisons (ITCs) are essential in Health Technology Assessment (HTA) when head-to-head clinical trials are absent. A common challenge arises when attempting to compare a treatment with available individual patient data (IPD) against a competitor with only reported aggregate-level data (ALD), particularly when trial populations differ in effect modifiers. While methods such as Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison (MAIC) exist to adjust for these cross-trial differences, they are increasingly being superseded by regression-based marginalization methods. Historically, software implementations for these methods have often been fragmented or limited in scope. This article introduces outstandR, an R package designed to provide a comprehensive and unified framework for population-adjusted indirect comparison (PAIC). outstandR implements advanced G-computation methods - within both maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks, and Multiple Imputation Marginalization (MIM) to address non-collapsibility. By streamlining the workflow of covariate simulation, model standardization, and contrast estimation, outstandR enables robust and compatible evidence synthesis in complex decision-making scenarios.

Recent multimodal LLMs have shown promise in chart-based visual question answering, but their performance declines sharply on unannotated charts-those requiring precise visual interpretation rather than relying on textual shortcuts. To address this, we introduce ChartAgent, a novel agentic framework that explicitly performs visual reasoning directly within the chart's spatial domain. Unlike textual chain-of-thought reasoning, ChartAgent iteratively decomposes queries into visual subtasks and actively manipulates and interacts with chart images through specialized actions such as drawing annotations, cropping regions (e.g., segmenting pie slices, isolating bars), and localizing axes, using a library of chart-specific vision tools to fulfill each subtask. This iterative reasoning process closely mirrors human cognitive strategies for chart comprehension. ChartAgent achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the ChartBench and ChartX benchmarks, surpassing prior methods by up to 16.07% absolute gain overall and 17.31% on unannotated, numerically intensive queries. Furthermore, our analyses show that ChartAgent is (a) effective across diverse chart types, (b) achieves the highest scores across varying visual and reasoning complexity levels, and (c) serves as a plug-and-play framework that boosts performance across diverse underlying LLMs. Our work is among the first to demonstrate visually grounded reasoning for chart understanding using tool-augmented multimodal agents.

Training set sampling methods are used to improve model performance and lower data costs in machine learning problems relevant to chemistry. We introduce Gradient Guided Furthest Point Sampling (GGFPS), a simple extension of Furthest Point Sampling (FPS) that leverages molecular force norms to guide efficient sampling of configurational spaces of molecules. Numerical evidence is presented for a toy system (the Styblinski-Tang function) as well as for molecular dynamics trajectories from the MD17 dataset. Our numerical results indicate superior data efficiency and model robustness when using GGFPS compared to FPS and uniform random sampling (URS), as well as established supervised FPS-style selectors, PCov-FPS and PCov-CUR. Distribution analysis of the MD17 data suggests that FPS systematically under-samples equilibrium geometries, resulting in large test errors for relaxed structures. GGFPS cures this artifact and (i) enables up to twofold reductions in training cost without sacrificing predictive accuracy compared to FPS in the 2-dimensional Styblinski-Tang system, (ii) systematically lowers prediction errors for equilibrium as well as strained structures in MD17, and (iii) systematically decreases prediction error variances across all of the MD17 configuration spaces. These results suggest that gradient-aware sampling methods hold great promise as effective training set selection tools, and that naive use of FPS may result in imbalanced training and inconsistent prediction outcomes.

Synthetic data generation is increasingly used in applications involving privacy preservation, data sharing, and data scarcity. In many situations, preserving the dependence structure of the original data is of central interest. In this work, we propose a lightweight postprocessing methodology for synthetic tabular data based on the Orthogonal Procrustes problem. Starting from an already generated synthetic dataset, our approach constructs the closest dataset that restores the Pearson correlation structure of the original data. On the theoretical side, we show that preserving Pearson correlation is equivalent to the action of linear orthogonal maps in the centered-data subspace, and then deploy the Orthogonal Procrustes problem. However, in order for this to hold, we first establish a result ensuring that applying the Orthogonal Procrustes step remains in the aforementioned subspace under suitable assumptions. Applications to several datasets and synthetic data generators illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. In particular, the numerical experiments indicate that the correlation structure can be restored while largely preserving the individual feature distributions, the geometry of the data, and the performance of downstream classification tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly described as performing at the level of human experts on knowledge economy tasks. These claims are primarily based on how LLMs perform on benchmarking tasks that measure average performance across standardized datasets. Primary limitations of many benchmarking tasks are that they often measure performance based on content directly included in LLM training data, and they frequently do not assess the reliability of LLM performance or the magnitude of LLM errors. However, in high stakes contexts, these qualities are critically important. Through a novel LLM benchmarking task that requires writing computer code to complete a data analysis task, we compare the performance of a frontier LLM against submissions from human experts and explicitly measure the variance of responses and the magnitude of errors. Our study reveals that the human experts perform better on average on a range of metrics and demonstrate less variability in performance. Our results provide evidence that LLMs do not consistently perform at the level of human experts and demonstrate the importance of measuring variance and assessing error magnitude in LLM benchmark evaluations.

We study Toeplitz covariance estimation when fixed-threshold one-bit quantization is combined with deterministic sparse-ruler sampling. Each observed bit can enter many lag products. At a nonzero threshold the signs have nonzero mean, and this deterministic vertex reuse gives raw sign products a coherent one-vertex component. This component changes the variance geometry. Raw nonzero-threshold products are governed by weighted-degree row sums rather than by lag coverage or edge Frobenius geometry. Centering the signs removes the vertex component and leaves a degenerate sparse-pair statistic. We then prove a dimension-free Gaussian variance contraction theorem for hollow quadratic forms of bounded coordinate transforms. The theorem applies to hard threshold signs and controls arbitrary deterministic sparse supports by the Frobenius norm of the edge weights, with no dependence on dimension, support size or maximum degree. For operator-norm estimation, we construct centered sparse-ruler Toeplitz estimators with pooled marginal calibration. The leading oracle term is \[ γ_0 L_1κ_{\rm obs} \sqrt{\frac{φ(Ω)\log d}{n}}, \qquad φ(Ω)=\sum_{s=1}^{d-1}q_s^{-1}, \] while the plug-in term is governed by the marginal bit budget \(n|Ω|\). A real spectral-packing lower bound in a known-scale identity-neighborhood submodel shows that the \(\sqrt{φ(Ω)\log d/n}\) dependence is intrinsic under balanced coverage geometry. In the non-saturated regime where this coverage term dominates, the oracle estimator is therefore minimax rate optimal over the submodel; the optimal dependence on the conditioning, curvature and plug-in calibration constants is left open.

In classical robust hypothesis testing, least favorable distributions often simultaneously maximize all Chernoff $u$-affinities and minimize all $f$-divergences. This paper identifies the structural mechanism that causes this equivalence to fail in general: the cone generated by fractional power functions $\{x^u\}_{u\in(0,1)}$ is strictly smaller than the cone of convex functions, inducing a separation between fractional-moment dominance and convex-order dominance. An explicit minimal counterexample is constructed on a three-point probability space, with convex, compact uncertainty classes and uniformly bounded likelihood ratios, for which a single pair maximizes all Chernoff functionals uniformly yet fails to minimize a convex $f$-divergence. It is further proved that no such separation can occur on a two-point space. Sufficient conditions for equivalence -- including stochastic ordering of likelihood ratios -- are discussed, and an open characterization problem in the geometry of moment cones is highlighted.

We derive the optimal quantizer of a real-valued random variable $W$ with distribution $P_W$ such that 1) the distribution of the quantization output $X$ that can take $k$ values follows any specified distribution $P_X$ over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, and 2) the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) of estimating $W$ from $X$ is minimized. It is shown that the optimal quantizer takes the form $X=σ\big(F_{σ^{-1}(X)}^{-1}(F_W(W))\big)$, where $σ$ is the optimal permutation of $\{1,\ldots,k\}$ among all permutations to minimize the MMSE, and $F$ is the cumulative distribution function. When $P_W$ is uniform over an interval or $P_X$ is uniform over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, the quantizer takes a simple form $X=F_{X}^{-1}(F_W(W))$. The concept of majorization plays a key role in the optimality proof. Specifying the output distribution is useful for designing quantizers with explicitly controlled output entropy, maximized mutual information between input and output, tailored output distribution to match channel input requirements for communication, and data anonymization.

This paper analyzes bidirectional random projections for ordinary least squares (OLS) regression under the fixed design setting. Let $(X,Y) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p} \times \mathbb{R}^n$ be a sample and $R \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1 \times n}, W \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times p_1}$ be two properly distributed random projections. We develop an expected excess loss bound for the OLS estimator built on $(WXR, WY)$. Compared to an established bound for OLS estimator built on $(XR, Y)$, the gap is approximately $O\left( p_1 + C \frac{1}{p_1} \right)$, where $C$ scales with $n_1/n$ and can be negative for small $n_1/n$. Its implications are confirmed by numerical results on real-world data.

Higher-order ODE solvers have shown strong empirical promise for accelerating diffusion models through the probability flow ODE, but rigorous non-asymptotic guarantees for such acceleration remain limited. In this paper, we develop a Chebyshev--Gauss--Seidel higher-order sampler and establish a non-asymptotic convergence guarantee that allows the approximation order to grow logarithmically with the number of outer iterations. In the exact-score setting, up to logarithmic factors, the proposed sampler requires at most \[ d^{1+o_T(1)}\varepsilon^{-1/K_1} \] score functions to approximate the target distribution on \(\mathbb{R}^d\) within total variation distance \(\varepsilon\), where \(o_T(1)\to 0\) as \(T\to\infty\) and \(K_1>0\) is a sufficiently large constant. The analysis assumes only a polynomial second-moment bound on the target distribution, thereby relaxing the bounded-support condition imposed in existing higher-order theory. Moreover, the guarantee is robust to score and Jacobian estimation errors and does not require higher-order smoothness assumptions on the score estimates. Numerical experiments on anisotropic Gaussian mixture benchmarks support the predicted improvement in the accuracy--cost tradeoff under finite score-evaluation budgets.

Gaussian-process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) and decision-estimation-coefficient (DEC) methods may appear, at first sight, to belong to different theories. This paper places the two viewpoints in a common algorithmic-information language for frequentist RKHS bandits. GP-UCB fixes an algorithmic, rather than true, Gaussian-process prior and exploits realized-trajectory complexity together with computational tractability, whereas MAMS optimizes a robust class-wide MAIR/DEC envelope. Through the unified MAIR framework and heterogeneous positive-semidefinite algorithmic priors, we generalize both the GP-UCB analysis and the MAMS algorithm, propose a safeguarded master that combines their advantages, and provide a kernel-bandit construction showing that algorithmic complexity can be more informative than class-wide minimax or DEC certificates in overparameterized models. The resulting message is that algorithmic information and class-wide minimax coefficients answer different questions and can lead to different gaps; kernel bandits provide a clean setting in which this distinction becomes mathematically visible.

We establish quantitative rates of convergence for the empirical estimation of probability measures by means of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) with power kernel $K_q(x,y) = -|x-y|^q$, $q \in (0,2)$. The resulting discrepancy is the classical \emph{energy distance} $$\mathcal E_q^2(μ, ω) = -\frac{1}{2}\iint_{\mathbb{R}^d \times \mathbb{R}^d} |x-y|^q \, d(μ- ω)(x)\, d(μ- ω)(y),$$ and we ask how fast the best $N$-point empirical approximation $\inf_{μ_N \in \mathcal{P}^N}\mathcal{E}_q(μ_N,ω)$ decays as $N \to \infty$. Given a probability measure $ω$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with compact support satisfying an Ahlfors regularity condition of exponent $β\in (0,d]$, we prove that the sharp two-sided bound $$\mathcal E_q(μ_N, ω) \asymp N^{-\frac{1}{2}\left(1 + \frac{q}β\right)}$$ holds both for the worst-case empirical measure $μ_N$ (lower bound, holding for every configuration of $N$ points) and for an optimally chosen empirical measure $μ_N$ (upper bound). This complements the qualitative consistency result of Fornasier and Hütter \cite{fornasier2014consistency}, who proved narrow convergence of the minimizers of $\mathcal E_q^2(\cdot, ω)$ over empirical measures without quantitative rates.

A new framework is introduced for examining and evaluating the fundamental limits of lossless data compression, that emphasizes genuinely non-asymptotic results. The {\em sample complexity} of compressing a given source is defined as the smallest blocklength at which it is possible to compress that source at a specifically constrained rate and to within a specified excess-rate probability. This formulation parallels corresponding developments in statistics and computer science, and it facilitates the use of existing results on the sample complexity of various hypothesis testing problems. For arbitrary sources, the sample complexity of general variable-length compressors is shown to be tightly coupled with the sample complexity of prefix-free codes and fixed-length codes. For memoryless sources, it is shown that the sample complexity is characterized not by the source entropy, but by its Rényi entropy of order~$1/2$. Nonasymptotic bounds on the sample complexity are obtained, with explicit constants. Generalizations to Markov sources are established, showing that the sample complexity is determined by the source's Rényi entropy rate of order~$1/2$. Finally, bounds on the sample complexity of universal data compression are developed for families of memoryless sources. There, the sample complexity is characterized by the minimum Rényi divergence of order~$1/2$ between elements of the family and the uniform distribution. The connection of this problem with identity testing and with the associated separation rates is explored and discussed.

We consider the problem of testing whether a multivariate distribution is axially symmetric about some unknown direction. Under a simple-spectrum assumption on the covariance matrix, any symmetry axis must coincide with an eigenvector of the covariance matrix, so the problem reduces to testing a finite set of candidate directions. For each candidate direction, we construct a Kolmogorov--Smirnov-type statistic based on projected data and sample splitting. We derive its asymptotic distribution in a triangular-array framework and establish bootstrap validity under suitable regularity conditions. This leads to a feasible testing procedure for axial symmetry when the symmetry direction is unspecified.

Three-layer neural networks are known to form singular learning models, and their Bayesian asymptotic behavior is governed by the learning coefficient, or real log canonical threshold. Although this quantity has been clarified for regular models and for some special singular models, broadly applicable methods for evaluating it in neural networks remain limited. Recently, a formula for the local learning coefficient of semiregular models was proposed, yielding an upper bound on the learning coefficient. However, this formula applies only to nonsingular points in the set of realization parameters and cannot be used at singular points. In particular, for three-layer neural networks, the resulting upper bound has been shown to differ substantially from learning coefficient values already known in some cases. In this paper, we derive a formula for an upper bound on local learning coefficients at a class of singular realization parameters in three-layer neural networks. This formula can be interpreted as a counting rule under budget, demand, and supply constraints. In the non-polynomial real-analytic case, the formula applies in general settings, whereas in the polynomial case it applies under the restriction that the true distribution has no hidden units. In particular, our result covers activation functions such as the swish function and also includes polynomial activation functions under the above restriction, thereby extending previous results to a broader class of activation functions. We further show that, when the input dimension is one, the numerical value given by the right-hand side of our upper-bound formula agrees with the previously known learning coefficient, thereby providing a useful comparison with known exact results. Our result also provides a systematic perspective on how the weight parameters of three-layer neural networks affect the learning coefficient.

Many statistical and econometric problems involve parameters defined by moments of a joint distribution when only marginal distributions are observed, leading naturally to partial identification. We develop a methodology for identification, estimation, and inference in the corresponding partially identified GMM model. We characterize the sharp identified set for the parameter of interest via a support-function/optimal-transport (OT) representation. To estimate the identified set, we employ entropic regularization, which yields a smooth approximation to the classical OT problem that can be computed efficiently using the Sinkhorn algorithm. We also propose a test statistic for hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence regions for the identified set. To derive its asymptotic distribution, we establish a novel central limit theorem for the entropic OT value under general smooth cost functions. We then obtain valid critical values using the bootstrap for directionally differentiable functionals of Fang and Santos (2019). The resulting testing procedure controls size locally uniformly, including at parameter values on the boundary of the identified set. We demonstrate good finite-sample performance of our methodology in Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, as an empirical illustration, we estimate a panel logit model of self-reported happiness with attrition and refreshment, using data from the Understanding America Study.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs for short) are a class of repulsive point processes. They have found some statistical applications to model spatial point pattern datasets with repulsion between close points. In the case of DPPs on finite sets, they are defined by a matrix called the DPP kernel which is usually assumed to be symmetric. While there are a few known examples of DPPs with nonsymmetric kernels, not much is known on how this affects their usual properties. In this paper, we demonstrate how to adapt the results on $P_0$ matrices to the DPP setting in order to get necessary and sufficient conditions for the well-definedness of DPPs with nonsymmetric kernels. We also generalize various common results on DPPs. We then show how to use these results to construct attractive couplings of regular DPPs with symmetric kernels in order to model spatial marked point patterns with repulsion between points of the same mark and attraction between points of different marks.

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key insight underlying the present piece of research is that in linear filtering applications polynomial processes and their discrete-time counterpart are indistinguishable from Gaussian processes sharing their first two moments. We describe the construction of these Gaussian equivalents of polynomial processes and explicitly compute optimal linear filters, predictors and smoothers for polynomial processes in discrete and continuous time. The consideration of Gaussian equivalents also opens the door to parameter estimation and linear-quadratic optimal control in the context of polynomial processes.

The Fréchet mean (or barycenter) generalizes the expectation of a random variable to metric spaces by minimizing the expected squared distance to the random variable. Similarly, the median can be generalized by its property of minimizing the expected absolute distance. We consider the class of transformed Fréchet means with nondecreasing, convex transformations that have a concave derivative. This class includes the Fréchet median, the Fréchet mean, the Huber loss-induced Fréchet mean, and other statistics related to robust statistics in metric spaces. We study variance inequalities for these transformed Fréchet means. These inequalities describe how the expected transformed distance grows when moving away from a minimizer, i.e., from a transformed Fréchet mean. Variance inequalities are useful in the theory of estimation and numerical approximation of transformed Fréchet means. Our focus is on variance inequalities in Hadamard spaces - metric spaces with globally nonpositive curvature. Notably, some results are new also for Euclidean spaces. Additionally, we are able to characterize uniqueness of transformed Fréchet means, in particular of the Fréchet median.

We consider the problem of recovering an unknown matching between a set of $n$ randomly placed points in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and random perturbations of these points. This can be seen as a model for particle tracking and more generally, entity resolution. We use matchings in random geometric graphs to derive minimax lower bounds for this problem that hold under great generality. Using these results we show that for a fixed $d$, as long as the noise distribution has finite $d$-th moment, and both initial positions and noise have bounded continuous densities, the minimax rate for the problem scales as $Θ(n^2σ^d \wedge n)$. Under the stronger assumptions that the tail of the noise is sub-Gaussian, we show that the order of the number of mistakes made by an estimator that minimizes the sum of squared Euclidean distances is minimax optimal when $d$ is fixed and is optimal up to $n^{o(1)}$ factors when $d = o(\log n)$. In the high-dimensional regime we consider a setup where both initial positions and perturbations have independent sub-Gaussian coordinates. In this setup we give sufficient conditions under which the same estimator makes no mistakes with high probability. We prove an analogous result for an adapted version of this estimator that incorporates information on the covariance matrix of the perturbations.

Analysis of data from randomized controlled trials in vulnerable populations requires special attention when assessing treatment effect by a score measuring, e.g., disease stage or activity together with onset of prevalent terminal events. In reality, it is impossible to disentangle a disease score from the terminal event, since the score is not clinically meaningful after this event. In this work, we propose to assess treatment interventions simultaneously on the terminal event and the disease score in the absence of a terminal event. Our proposal is based on a natural data-generating mechanism, respecting that a disease score does not exist beyond the terminal event. We use modern semi-parametric statistical methods to provide robust and efficient estimation of the risk of terminal event and expected disease score conditional on no terminal event at a pre-specified landmark time. We also use the simultaneous asymptotic behaviour of our estimators to develop a powerful closed testing procedure for confirmatory assessment of treatment effect on both onset of terminal event and level of disease score in the absence of a terminal event. A simulation study mimicking a large-scale outcome trial in chronic kidney patients as well as an analysis of that trial is provided to assess performance.

Objective: Electronic health records (EHR) data are prone to missingness and errors. Previously, we devised an "enriched" chart review protocol where a "roadmap" of auxiliary diagnoses (anchors) was used to recover missing values in EHR data (e.g., a diagnosis of impaired glycemic control might imply that a missing hemoglobin A1c value would be considered unhealthy). Still, chart reviews are expensive and time-intensive, which limits the number of patients whose data can be reviewed. Now, we investigate the accuracy and scalability of a roadmap-driven algorithm, based on ICD-10 codes (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision), to mimic expert chart reviews and recover missing values. Materials and Methods: In addition to the clinicians' original roadmap from our previous work, we consider new versions that were iteratively refined using large language models (LLM) in conjunction with clinical expertise to expand the list of auxiliary diagnoses. Using chart reviews for 100 patients from the EHR at an extensive learning health system, we examine algorithm performance with different roadmaps. Using the larger study of $1000$ patients, we applied the final algorithm, which used a roadmap with clinician-approved additions from the LLM. Results: The algorithm recovered as much, if not more, missing data as the expert chart reviewers, depending on the roadmap. Discussion: Clinically-driven algorithms (enhanced by LLM) can recover missing EHR data with similar accuracy to chart reviews and can feasibly be applied to large samples. Extending them to monitor other dimensions of data quality (e.g., plausability) is a promising future direction.