Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly described as performing at the level of human experts on knowledge economy tasks. These claims are primarily based on how LLMs perform on benchmarking tasks that measure average performance across standardized datasets. Primary limitations of many benchmarking tasks are that they often measure performance based on content directly included in LLM training data, and they frequently do not assess the reliability of LLM performance or the magnitude of LLM errors. However, in high stakes contexts, these qualities are critically important. Through a novel LLM benchmarking task that requires writing computer code to complete a data analysis task, we compare the performance of a frontier LLM against submissions from human experts and explicitly measure the variance of responses and the magnitude of errors. Our study reveals that the human experts perform better on average on a range of metrics and demonstrate less variability in performance. Our results provide evidence that LLMs do not consistently perform at the level of human experts and demonstrate the importance of measuring variance and assessing error magnitude in LLM benchmark evaluations.

Recent one-step generative models accelerate sampling by learning deterministic flow maps of the underlying dynamics. These methods rely on learning from ordinary differential equations, leaving open how to define an exact distillation procedure for stochastic dynamics. We introduce the Itô map, an any-step stochastic flow map that takes an intermediate state and Brownian path and predicts future states in a single pass. The Itô map formulation yields novel estimators for inference-time control by providing cheap, differentiable access to posterior samples. Empirically, Itô maps produce diverse, conditionally valid endpoint samples from fixed intermediate states and support strong steering performance on synthetic and image-generation benchmarks. These results establish any-step SDE integration as a useful primitive for posterior sampling and stochastic control.

Blood pressure (BP) is a key marker for cardiovascular risk assessment and therapeutic decision-making, and Photoplethysmography (PPG) enables low-cost, wearable-friendly cuffless BP estimation. However, even with recent progress, many PPG-based models are trained with BP regression alone and may rely on amplitude-dominated shortcuts. In addition, demographic covariates that systematically modulate vascular compliance are often incorporated only via late fusion, limiting subject-specific representation learning. We propose a Transformer-based network for cuffless BP estimation from PPG signal, leveraging self-attention to capture long-range dependencies across multiple cardiac cycles. To account for subject-specific vascular differences, the model is conditioned on demographics via FiLM-style feature modulation applied through the attention and feed-forward sublayers of Transformer blocks. In addition, we add an auxiliary morphology head to guide the model to attend to BP-relevant waveform morphology associated with arterial stiffness and wave reflection. Under calibration-based evaluation protocols on the large-scale PulseDB dataset, the proposed method achieves MAE of 4.56 mmHg for systolic BP and 2.62 mmHg for diastolic BP, reducing errors by 47% and 50% compared with prior demographic-enhanced PPG baselines. The resulting lightweight, single-sensor model supports scalable and clinically grounded cuffless BP estimation in calibration-enabled deployment settings.

Conformal predictive systems (CPS) output calibrated bands of CDFs under exchangeability. We extend generalized CPS to non-exchangeable settings by encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights. This yields shift-aware predictive systems that remain valid whenever the test point is, conditionally on the unordered sample, a weighted draw from the observed atoms. Since such weights are typically estimated, we introduce weight-uncertainty boxes and construct robust CPS envelopes with finite-sample or asymptotic confidence guarantees. We derive efficient computation for conformity-measure CPS, conformal binning, and conformal isotonic distributional regression. Experiments under covariate shift and feedback-driven biomolecular design show calibrated predictive bands that widen under stronger shifts and tighten as sample size increases.

This study aims to explore the performance of the VAR model in comparison with mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC) matrices and log-mel spectrograms using deep learning. In pulmonary sound classification, spectrogram-based representations suffer from inconsistent temporal dimensions due to varying respiratory cycle durations. Along with traditional trimming/zero-padding, adaptive-length windowing was presented to fix their temporal dimensions. Their spectral and temporal dimensions were optimized by testing a range of parameters. Different convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures were employed to extract features from the two-dimensional representations obtained over the sub-phases. The extracted sub-phase features were then fused using various strategies including direct concatenation, gated recurrent unit (GRU) network and GRU with attention mechanism. Model performances were assessed through respiratory cycle-based evaluation and subject-based evaluation comprising multiple respiratory cycles. Several data augmentation techniques were also studied to cope with limitations in data size. The best cycle-based F1-score (0.877) was obtained using the MFCC matrices with thirteen coefficients and 64-point time resolution per sub-phase representation followed by direct feature concatenation, and the best subject-based F1-score (0.855) was obtained using the MFCC matrices with thirteen coefficients and 256-point time resolution per full-cycle representation, both obtained by adaptive-length windowing. Augmentation degraded the performance of models overall, yet mixup augmentation was the best among the methods tested. MFCC outperformed log-mel spectrogram and VAR model in differentiation of asthma and COPD. Sophisticated fusion strategies did not improve the diagnosis. Augmentation did not contribute, demonstrating the significance of authentic data in pulmonary sound studies.

We study models for human-AI teaming through the lens of statistical calibration. We assume the team consists of an AI model and human -- both of which are calibrated with respect to some partitioning of the feature space -- and expose how the calibration assumptions propagate into the teaming framework. In particular, we consider frameworks that either (i) combine human and model predictions or (ii) delegate prediction responsibility to either a human or model. We show via theoretical and empirical results that existing methods for combination do not preserve the human's degree of calibration. Methods for delegation (by the very act of delegation) preserve calibration of the downstream predictors but shift the burden onto the rejector meta-model that decides who predicts. The rejector must be calibrated finely enough to locate where each member is superior, a demand that grows with the human's expertise and becomes unattainable when the human relies on information the system cannot observe.

Early detection of neurodegeneration remains a critical clinical challenge. This study investigates whether sleep EEG signal criticality, quantified via Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA), serves as a non-invasive biomarker for future cognitive decline. We analyzed longitudinal data from the National Sleep Research Resource (NSRR) Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) cohort, comparing baseline sleep EEG dynamics between women who remained cognitively normal and those who later progressed to dementia-related impairment ($3MS < 78$).Our results reveal significant group-level differences in Hurst exponent $H(q)$ distributions, particularly during non-REM stages N2 and N3. Cognitively healthy individuals exhibited signal dynamics significantly closer to an optimally critical state across all electrode locations ($p \leqslant 0.001$), supporting the Brain Criticality Hypothesis. Supervised UMAP projections confirmed clear spatial separation between groups throughout the overnight sleep architecture.The dementia group demonstrated a shift in DFA exponents toward $1.0$, suggesting that a reconfiguration of scale-free neural dynamics during sleep precedes clinical symptoms. These findings highlight the potential for MFDFA-derived measures to be integrated into automated, sleep-based screening tools, enabling earlier preventative interventions during the prodromal window of dementia.

Unsupervised term discovery involves segmenting unlabelled speech into word- or syllable-like units and clustering these into a lexicon of candidate types. True lexicons follow a Zipfian distribution, yet the dominant centre-based clustering approach -- K-means -- produces a more uniform distribution due to an inductive bias toward spherical clusters. In this paper we revisit graph-based clustering as a bottom-up alternative, where segment embeddings are connected by pairwise similarity and partitioned using the Leiden algorithm. We show that graph clustering substantially outperforms centre-based approaches (K-means, GMM, BIRCH) in both word- and syllable-level lexicon discovery across three languages, producing more Zipf-like distributions. Another bottom-up approach, agglomerative clustering with average linkage, also performs well, although it is computationally less efficient and allows for less control over the resulting distribution. Our work calls into question the dominance of centre-based clustering for term discovery, and promotes graph clustering as an attractive alternative.

Variable importance produced by Random Forests (RF) is used widely in statistical data analysis, and has played an important role in a variety of tasks such as assisting model interpretation, model selection and diagnosis, and cost-bounded learning etc. However, the calculation of variable importance in RF does not take into account of the correlations among variables, and variables that are correlated to many other variables tend to receive a lower importance index or being completely masked (i.e., with an importance index near zero) by other strongly correlated variables. To prevent influence from unwanted correlated variables in calculating variable importance, we propose to group variables by their conditional correlations (conditional on the response variable). We explore two computationally efficient options, with one grouping variables individually, and then separates the variable of interest from all correlated variables, while the other uses clustering to group variables according to their pair-wise conditional correlations. Our experiments show that both lead to sensible corrections to the importance of variables.

Recent multimodal large language models mainly process audio as monaural signals, thereby discarding the spatial cues contained in spatial audio for sound localization, spatial relation reasoning, and spatial scene understanding. We propose Spatial-Omni, a lightweight method that implements SO-Encoder to inject First-Order Ambisonics (FOA) spatial audio into existing Omni LLMs as an independent modality, without modifying their original audio encoders. SO-Encoder provides spatial tokens with limited additional context cost and improves spatial audio understanding through efficient staged training. To support training and evaluation, we construct SO-Dataset, SO-QA, and SO-Bench from open-source data, real recordings, and simulations, containing 400K FOA spatial audio clips and 2.1M spatial question answering pairs. SO-Bench covers 16 spatial audio understanding subtasks, including basic detection and location estimation, spatial relation understanding, and complex spatial reasoning. Experiments show that Spatial-Omni outperforms existing open-source Large Audio-Language Models (LALMs) and Omni LLM models on spatial audio understanding tasks while retaining a reasonable level of general audio understanding. Code and data are available at https://github.com/dieKarotte/Spatial-Omni.

The nnU-Net has demonstrated continuous success in medical segmentation tasks, which heavily rely on the availability and diversity of annotated biomedical data. However, assembling medical imaging cohorts remains challenging due to numerous factors such as privacy regulations and annotation costs. As a result, data augmentation plays a crucial role in increasing data availability while maintaining anatomical feasibility. Hence, we propose the ++nnU-Net, a novel data augmentation module based on image registration that operates prior to preprocessing and training take place. Our framework was evaluated across five different 2D datasets. In this workflow, image data go through a two-stage registration process, generating new warped images. The transformations are then applied to the respective segmentation. In addition, the pipeline computes available disk space, generates supplementary binary synthetic masks and generates checkpoints. We demonstrate that the ++nnU-Net outperforms the nnU-Net baseline, yielding improvements in Dice Similarity Coefficient scores. In the most prominent cases, we observe performance gains of approximately 22\%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of registration-based data augmentation, particularly for 2D medical imaging datasets and suggest that the ++nnU-Net provides a practical and scalable approach for enhancing segmentation performance in data-limited settings. The source code for the ++nnU-Net is available at: https://github.com/sofia-adelie/plusplusnnunet.git

Although some very common test beds exist for assessing the performance of clustering methods, large scale benchmarking is typically limited to relatively simplistic simulation set-ups. Here we describe the production and curation of close to 3000 synthetic data sets, derived from more than 200 publicly available data sets; the majority of which arose from real-world applications. By fitting a flexible non-parametric distribution to each base data set we are able to retain much of the nuance in real-world data which is difficult to reproduce in standard simulations, while also producing data sets whose sizes are sometimes substantially greater than the data sets from which they are derived. The synthetic data sets, plus an accompanying R package, are available for download from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/ClusBench.

Current blockchain research and analytics tend to prioritize observable on-chain transactions, obscuring the processes through which cryptocurrencies are created, publicised, retained, and disposed of. In response, this paper considers distributed ledger technologies from records management principles in ISO 15489-1:2016. Setting off by specifying the parallels -- that is transactions as "records", crypto-asset units as "information assets", and blockchains as "aggregations" -- we introduce a seven-stage lifecycle for blockchain data. We apply the framework to Bitcoin, a fungible token, and a non-fungible token. On this basis, we argue that blockchain systems are not merely transactional infrastructures but record management systems with distinctive characteristics. We discuss how the on-chain/off-chain boundary and privacy-enhancing technologies can complicate lifecycle visibility, with particular relevance for crypto-crime research and investigation. As a meta-level framework, the lifecycle perspective enables positioning existing research, decomposing legal, regulatory, technological, and operational challenges by stage, and informing lifecycle-aware approaches to blockchain governance, analytics, and regulation.

While Speech Large Language Models (Speech-LLMs) have achieved strong performance on adult Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), their effectiveness on child speech remains under-explored, and single models often struggle to handle diverse adult and child age groups simultaneously. This paper proposes a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Speech-LLM for unified ASR across adult and child speech spanning diverse environments and age groups. The framework employs a Classifier-based Domain Router (C-DR) with a coarse-to-fine strategy and integrates both a Mixture-of-Projectors (MoP) and a Mixture-of-LoRAs (MoL) to model domain-specific variations. To address routing uncertainty near domain boundaries, an Entropy-Aware Routing (EAR) mechanism is introduced to dynamically incorporate a shared expert. Experiments on public child corpora demonstrate consistent improvements over baselines while preserving adult ASR performance. To our knowledge, this is the first work leveraging Speech-LLMs for unified, multi-domain ASR encompassing both children and adults.

Convergence-rate analysis for classifiers is often conducted under either Tsybakov margin or Massart margin. The former is a relatively weak condition that typically yields polynomial rates, while the latter is substantially stronger but can guarantee exponential rates. In this paper, we introduce a new condition, called Boltzmann margin, that bridges the gap between these two regimes. It is weaker than Massart margin, generally stronger than Tsybakov margin, and can imply many of their properties under suitable conditions. We apply Boltzmann margin to the analysis of kNN classifiers and establish the first near-exponential convergence rates for kNN classification. We also present extensions of the main results and provide numerical evidence supporting the main theoretical implications.

We introduce SSL-GMMVC, an interpretable voice conversion method in self-supervised speech space. The method models paired source-target features with a Gaussian mixture model and performs conversion as a posterior-weighted sum of affine transforms. This yields locally linear transformations that adapt to heterogeneous feature-space structure while remaining analytically tractable. Through objective and subjective evaluations, we show that SSL-GMMVC improves speaker similarity with comparable intelligibility and naturalness, and that even a constrained covariance variant surpasses a deep learning baseline as the number of mixture components increases. Further analyses link component selection to phonetic structure and reveal interpretable scaling and rotation in the learned transforms. These findings highlight SSL-GMMVC as an effective, analyzable framework for voice conversion.

Coordinated multi-satellite (CoMS) transmission and non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) are envisioned to jointly enhance coverage, capacity, and spectrum efficiency for satellite networks. Their integration into a unified CoMS-NOMA framework will allow more efficient, reliable, and energy-efficient multi-user access. This paper investigates the downlink performance of CoMS-NOMA networks from a system-level perspective, in which multiple satellites cooperatively serve multiple users via NOMA. Leveraging tools from stochastic geometry, related angles and distances in CoMS-NOMA are first derived as intermediate results. Then, we obtain the combined signal power distributions and analyze coverage and spectrum performance under both inter- and intra-satellite interference, accounting for potential imperfect successive interference cancellation (SIC). The analytical model is validated across a range of system parameters, including the number of satellites, service region angle, error-propagation factor, and power allocation coefficients. Numerical results indicate that increasing the number of cooperative satellites does not always improve coverage and spectrum efficiency. Additionally, while a higher main-lobe gain improves coverage, a near-perfect SIC provides only slightly greater benefits than a reasonably good SIC. With properly selected power allocation coefficients, CoMS-NOMA achieves up to a 270% improvement in coverage and a 56% gain in sum spectral efficiency, compared with conventional orthogonal and single-satellite schemes, indicating potential for green, energy-efficient satellite networking.

In this study, we propose an overlapped wavelet diffusion framework for Low-Light Image Enhancement (LLIE), which incorporates two complementary components to achieve blocking artifact-free and detail-preserving enhancement. Although recent diffusion-based LLIE methods have demonstrated remarkable performance compared with traditional approaches, DiffLL still suffers from blocking artifacts caused by the Haar Wavelet Transform (WT) and blurred edges or over-smoothed textures due to the limitations of its High-Frequency Restoration Module (HFRM). To overcome these issues, we introduce an Overlapped WT (OWT) that incorporates correlations across neighboring regions, thereby structurally preventing blocking artifacts. Furthermore, we integrate a low-frequency-guided High-Frequency Enhance Block (HFEBlock) to strengthen detail recovery, yielding sharper edges and more reliable textures. Extensive experiments on the LOLv1 and LOLv2-real datasets demonstrate that our framework, termed OWDiff, consistently outperforms existing LLIE methods both qualitatively and quantitatively, achieving superior visual quality while maintaining computational efficiency. OWDiff effectively addresses the structural limitations of the Haar WT and the HFRM, achieving an average PSNR gain of 0.58 dB, along with a 1.64% relative improvement in SSIM and a 5.9% relative reduction in LPIPS, compared to DiffLL across both the LOLv1 and LOLv2-real datasets.

Neural population geometry shapes downstream computation. Recent empirical findings in neurobiology suggest that a hyperbolic structure underlies population activity in the hippocampus. Here we provide a theoretical framework for this phenomenon. First, we propose a plausible construction of hippocampal tuning curves that statistically induces hyperbolic geometry. Next, we establish a connection between neural decoding and associative memory by demonstrating that the Modern Hopfield Network update rule computes the minimum mean-squared-error (MMSE) estimator. Finally, we introduce a novel associative memory model defined in hyperbolic space that yields significantly larger capacity than leading models. Our results suggest that animals encode spatial information as a latent hyperbolic cognitive map, improving both memory capacity and decoding accuracy.

While speech quality is typically assessed on complete utterances, streaming and generative systems require incremental estimation from partial audio. Existing predictors assume full context, degrading on prefix-constrained inputs. Extending ARECHO, we propose ANCHOR, reformulating incremental assessment as a multi-resolution autoregressive task. It models chunk- and utterance-level quality within a single decoder using dual-resolution tokens and a resolution-aware hierarchy for coarse-to-fine refinement. Experiments show substantial robustness under partial input, including a 48% PLCMOS error reduction on 2-second prefixes. Convergence analysis reveals a 4-6 s effective perceptual context horizon. A stress test further isolates structured extrapolation biases under localized corruption. Results demonstrate that hierarchical supervision improves incremental prediction and elucidates how perceptual quality accumulates over time.

Recent speech-aware large language models (Speech-LLMs) rely on a pre-trained speech encoder to convert audio into semantic-rich representations consumable by LLM. In this work, instead, we explore: can an LLM learn to read Mel spectrogram directly without a dedicated speech encoder? We propose Mel-LLM, an encoder-free Speech-LLM that feeds lightly pre-processed Mel spectrogram patches directly into the LLM through a linear projection, allowing the LLM to learn speech-text alignment purely through its own parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on both automatic speech recognition (ASR) and text-to-speech (TTS) tasks. For ASR, we evaluate on the OpenASR leaderboard public sets and production-level scaling experiments, demonstrating that the encoder-free solution achieves competitive performance with only limited degradation compared to encoder-initialized counterparts. We find that when data is limited, initialization from a multimodal checkpoint (Phi-4-MM) is crucial for maintaining performance. We also present ablation studies revealing which LLM layers are less relevant to speech encoding. For TTS, we show preliminary results with a next-token VAE approach. While TTS performance is not yet optimal, these results establish the feasibility of a fully unified encoder-free architecture for autoregressive speech-text modeling.

We develop a decision-calibrated conformal framework for pacing decisions in streaming advertising. Pacing depends on uncertain future inventory, demand pressure, incremental response, and member-experience load. Instead of calibrating a generic forecast residual, the framework measures forecast error by its largest impact on the policies that could actually be deployed. The main theorem shows that the proposed score is the smallest valid uncertainty measure that uniformly protects all deployable pacing policies. Geometrically, it is the support function of the signed policy sensitivity set. Split conformal calibration gives finite-sample coverage for this score. A high-dimensional separation theorem shows that traditional residual calibration can be arbitrarily more conservative by paying for nuisance inventory dimensions, and a robust pacing result combines inventory, response, and experience uncertainty. On public-data-calibrated pacing replays built from Criteo Uplift and KuaiRand datasets, traditional conformal pacing remains unresolved with high residual radii of 7236.7 on Criteo and 4629.4 on KuaiRand. With the proposed decision calibration approach, the uncertainty radii are reduced to 18.4 and 278.6 respectively, with separate margins for value, delivery, budget, and member load. On Criteo, the proposed method certifies a less aggressive pacing policy than the point-forecast baseline, and reduces held-out any-violation rate from 16.7% to 3.3%, with zero budget and member-load violations. On KuaiRand, the choice remains unresolved. In a nutshell, the paper establishes that forecasts, response estimates, and member-experience models should be judged by whether they shrink the uncertainty that the pacing decision uses, as this leads to confident decisions that are not overly conservative.

Few-shot example retrieval is the dominant paradigm for grounding large language models (LLMs) in domain-specific text-to-SQL systems. However, the quality of the annotated example bank directly governs system accuracy, and expert annotation is prohibitively expensive. We formalize the active selection of these examples as a constrained experimental design problem over the intrinsic, low-dimensional manifold of semantic query embeddings. Unlike standard active learning frameworks, our setting introduces three critical challenges: varying, query-dependent annotation reliability (heteroscedasticity), strict requirements for spatial diversity across semantic topics (partition matroid constraints), and the inherent reality that the true covariance structure of the embedding space is unknown (misspecification). To address these, we propose a stratified greedy algorithm that maximizes a heteroscedastic mutual information objective. We prove that this objective remains submodular and approximately monotonic on the intrinsic manifold, yielding a theoretical constant-factor approximation guarantee. We establish a spectral bound demonstrating that this approximation guarantee degrades gracefully, rather than catastrophically, when the assumed surrogate kernel diverges from the true underlying data-generating process. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed strategy significantly reduces labeling effort while maintaining high text-to-SQL retrieval accuracy.

Evaluating text-to-music (TTM) systems remains expensive because music impression (MI) and text alignment (TA) scores rely on human mean opinion scores (MOS). Most automatic MOS estimators are trained with point-wise regression or distributional classification. These objectives do not directly optimize rank-based metrics and provide weak geometric constraints for cross-modal coherence. To address these gaps, we propose DeRA-MOS, a decoupled optimization framework for TTM evaluation. For MI, we introduce a batch-aware listwise ranking loss that models relative order within each mini-batch and better aligns with evaluation based on Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC). For TA, we introduce a score-anchored modality alignment loss that maps human scores to target audio-text similarity and regularizes the latent space before fusion. By effectively mitigating the point-wise training mismatch and modality drift, experiments on MusicEval demonstrate that our decoupled framework yields substantial improvements in both MI and TA ranking metrics, establishing a robust paradigm for large-scale TTM evaluation.

Head computed tomography (CT) typically uses sub-millimeter in-plane resolution but 2-5 mm through-plane spacing, creating substantial anisotropy that degrades multiplanar reconstructions, volumetric measurements such as hematoma volume estimation, and downstream algorithms that assume near-isotropic voxels. We present a deep learning system that synthesizes intermediate CT slices from pairs of neighboring axial slices, halving the effective through-plane spacing. The system improves three-dimensional visualization while simultaneously producing inherently denoised outputs, yielding two complementary benefits from a single inference pass. To build a reliable system, we systematically evaluate pixel-wise losses, namely mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (L1); structural-similarity losses, namely the structural similarity index (SSIM) and its multi-scale variant (MS-SSIM); and hybrid combinations. On a held-out test set, all converged models outperform classical interpolation baselines and pretrained video frame interpolation methods (RIFE, FILM) on all structural measures, with MS-SSIM+L1 offering the strongest balanced profile. We also document training instability in SSIM-family losses and identify partial remedies: the standard numerical fixes eliminate the dominant failure mode but leave residual divergence at smaller batch sizes. All results are reported with patient-level bootstrap confidence intervals and paired statistical tests. As an illustration, we apply the system to an out-of-distribution head CT series from Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío: the model synthesizes intermediate slices and exhibits on the real slices the implicit-denoising signature predicted by our theoretical analysis, supporting in a single external case that interpolation quality and implicit denoising are not confined to the training distribution.

GDP per capita is the default lens through which governibng bodies track the economic prosperity and consequences of economic events , yet it is blind to two first-order determinants of lived prosperity: income/wealth distribution and inflation impact. Inequality-adjusted income measures are themselves not new but What is missing from the macroeconomic monitoring toolkit specifically is not a welfare concept but an operational monitoring trigger: a statistic minimal enough to compute annually from public data, transparent enough to audit without modelling assumptions, and normalised so that year-on-year, cross-country change ? the quantity a regulator needs to act on? is legible. We assemble such an instrument, the Gini- Adjusted GDP per Capita Index (GAGI): a reproducible, publicly computable formulation that rescales each country's GDP per capita by its inequality-adjustment factor (1-G) and its price level, normalised to a 2010 baseline. GAGI is a general-purpose welfare index, not inherently specific to AI automation, applicable wherever welfare-adjusted prosperity needs tracking. Applying GAGI to the G7 economies over 2010-2026, we show that welfare-adjusted prosperity has diverged persistently and increasingly from headline GDP growth, that the divergence widens sharply after 2022, temporally coincident with, though not, on this evidence alone, demonstrated to be caused by the after effects of COVID and the acceleration of generative-AI deployment. We argue that GAGI is a necessary complement to GDP-based monitoring: any macroeconomic monitoring instrument that tracks only aggregate output will systematically miss the distributional harm that automation can cause even while reported growth remains strong.

Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale. Restricting to the month of June to minimize seasonality, this work develops a range of machine learning models for generating realistic time series of surface wind vectors at a site in Lamont, Oklahoma based on more than 30 years of high quality measurements at the minute time scale. Such a generator could be used as an input into models from a range of disciplines, notably for wind energy, but also wildfire spread and aviation, among others. The data show complex diurnal structures in both wind speed and direction that would be challenging to capture with standard time series models, so we consider a number of machine learning approaches to producing a stochastic wind generator based on time vector-quantized variational autoencoders. We consider generating a day's worth of data at a time and generating a day of wind vectors conditional on the previous day's winds. We also study methods for incorporating a discrete weather state variable in the generator. We evaluate the generators using a wide range of formal and informal methods. The best of these generators can capture many but not all of the complex features present in the observational data. In particular, the best of our approaches accurately mimic diurnal changes in wind volatility but struggle to match the observed distribution of extreme wind speeds.

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) tractography is the only noninvasive approach for mapping white-matter pathways in the living human brain. It represents each brain as a tractogram: a large, unordered set of three-dimensional streamlines that includes information about both local streamline geometry and whole-brain anatomical organization. This structure makes tractograms a natural but challenging target for representation learning. Existing methods treat streamline classification and subject-level prediction as separate problems: streamline classifiers focus on geometric patterns, whereas subject-level prediction often depends on hand-crafted features. As a result, current methods do not learn reusable representations that connect streamline anatomy with whole-brain inter-subject variation. Here we introduce TractFM, a tractogram foundation model that learns reusable representations directly from whole-brain streamline sets. TractFM combines a local streamline encoder with a permutation-equivariant tractogram encoder, allowing all streamlines from a subject to be contextualized jointly in a single forward pass. Pretraining on dense anatomical tract parcellation, i.e., assigning anatomical labels to individual streamlines, yields two complementary representations: contextualized streamline-level embeddings for tract parcellation and compact subject-level descriptors for downstream prediction of subject phenotypes. Across three tractography algorithms and five dMRI datasets, TractFM transfers to both streamline-level and subject-level tasks. Its frozen representations achieve accurate tract parcellation and predict age and sex across independent datasets. These results show that whole-brain geometric context, learned once, can generalize across tractography pipelines, datasets, and prediction tasks.

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds, when each fails, and when cross-modal training helps at all -- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains like biomedicine or astrophysics, with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of organization and measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We develop a unified linear framework that addresses both questions. Under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, we derive separation ratios for both objectives that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes: Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image-caption pairs, and real astrophysical data validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including the Neither regime where cross-modal training is actively harmful. Our framework lets practitioners diagnose their multimodal problem and choose the right objective before committing to training. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) typically maximizes the likelihood of every token in a demonstrated trajectory. However, an observed token can be non-unique, noisy, or misaligned with the model prior. Strictly fitting toward this one-hot target may be suboptimal, especially when the pretrained model encodes a rich knowledge prior. In this work, we reinterpret SFT as target distribution design: instead of studying only the loss objective, we analyze the token-level target that the loss drives the model to match. We introduce the Q-target framework, which decomposes SFT supervision into two explicit choices: (1) how strongly to rely on the observed token, and (2) how to allocate the remaining probability mass over alternatives. This perspective unifies many existing SFT variants as implicit choices of the target distribution Q. Building on this view, we propose Target-SFT which constructs the training objective directly from the desired target distribution. This method consistently outperforms across the ten reasoning dataset-model settings evaluated, showing the effectiveness of this target-based approach. Overall, our formulation reveals a more fundamental design principle for SFT training and opens a broader search space for SFT objectives.