This paper sets out the most general computational and econometric implications of the rigorous stochastic equilibrium theory from SELCKE (Staines (2024a)) arXiv:2312.16214. The analytical backbone is the discovery that the system converges geometrically to long-run equilibrium, at a rate given by the greater of the eigenvalue or inverse eigenvalue (from outside) closest to the unit circle and the maximum shock persistence. High-order shocks converge faster. I develop a simulation procedure to test, with asymptotic power, whether stochastic equilibrium exists for a particular model. The fundamental approximation result asserts that, whatever the order of expansion or loss function, the stochastic steady state delivers the most accurate perturbation solution. I also show that super-consistent parameter estimators $O(1/T)$ arise whenever second-order terms vanish. Besides Calvo, I study stochastic equilibrium in two alternative pricing models. Dynamics simplify considerably. I bound the time the impulse response peaks, by the maximum lag in the errors. This lends empirical support to Taylor contracts, although there are issues surrounding unit roots and the strong cost-channel. For menu costs, I demonstrate that the initial price distribution decays away super-exponentially, producing a system equivalent to Calvo with an endogenous reset probability. The impact of idiosyncratic disturbances appears as an additional wedge between actual and efficient output. Blow-up of the objective function at the boundary is proven, with the help of new distributional arguments, so the model meets existing eigenvalue existence conditions for the recursive equilibrium. Along the way, new light is shone on existing theoretical models and statistical procedures.

We introduce CausalAlpha, an open-source framework that constructs a high-frequency Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index from Telegram OSINT channels using natural language processing, and applies causal discovery methods to identify the directed causal structure between geopolitical uncertainty and financial market variables. Unlike standard sentiment indices or Granger-causality approaches, CausalAlpha employs the Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm to recover the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of causal dependencies between five category-specific GPR indicators and a set of financial variables spanning commodity prices, equity indices, and credit instruments, estimated across four DAG specifications and three significance levels with 500 block-bootstrap resamples. Two findings emerge as globally robust across all DAG specifications at alpha = 0.10: political instability and energy media coverage independently and causally precede conflict coverage, establishing conflict as the primary causal sink of geopolitical narrative escalation in real-time OSINT channels. At the strictest significance level (alpha = 0.05), conflict coverage causally precedes energy sector equity returns (delta XLE), consistent with geopolitical escalation transmitting to energy markets. A Structural VAR on the core macro panel confirms that dynamic transmission from geopolitical NLP signals to financial market prices is statistically weak at daily frequency, suggesting that geopolitical news signals operate primarily within the media narrative system. The framework is deployed as a production application on Google Cloud Run with automated data collection and index construction, representing a step toward real-time macrofinancial risk monitoring using OSINT.

A key challenge in choice modeling lies in specifying the consideration set, the subset of alternatives that individuals actually evaluate when making choices, which is unobserved (latent) to the researcher. The classical homo economicus assumption posits that individuals assess the full universal set of alternatives, a behaviorally implausible premise. Practical options include directly asking individuals, which introduces behavioral biases; treating the consideration set as a latent construct, requiring full enumeration and strong identification assumptions; or relying on ad hoc heuristics that attempt to replicate how individuals form these sets or on non-parametric methods. Recently, some researchers have used historical choices as practical consideration set, an approach made increasingly feasible by the availability of passive data sources such as smartcards, mobile phone records, and scanner data. This article provides a formal demonstration of a sufficient condition, along with Monte Carlo evidence, showing that, under a Logit data-generating process with homogeneous choice probabilities across instances, defining a practical consideration set based on historical choices yields consistent parameter estimates. The demonstration is based on a reinterpretation of the sampling-of-alternatives theorem, viewing historical choices as draws from the true consideration set, and showing that under the stated assumptions, the uniform conditioning property holds. The article concludes by discussing the practical implications of this result and potential extensions to other modeling frameworks and assumptions.

This paper presents an open-economy macroeconomic equilibrium model for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks with fee-burn mechanics (EIP-1559) that formalizes the strategic interplay between a Kelly-optimizing rational institutional investor and a utility-driven retail consumer. We analyze network dynamics across two behavioral regimes. In The Unbounded Accumulation Model, the consumer purely accumulates tokens, creating an exclusive buy-side pressure that interacts with institutional portfolio rebalancing to fuel an ever-expanding speculative bubble and generate compounding excess returns for investors. Conversely, in The Utility-Consumption Model, the consumer dynamically buys and sells tokens to balance crypto wealth against real-world fiat consumption. Within this framework, we derive an explicit steady-state equilibrium price for ETH, demonstrating how token valuation anchors to a stable fundamental baseline that scales directly with network adoption while completely dissolving the institutional yield premium. Our numerical simulations show that while exogenous traditional finance (TradFi) shocks propagate through portfolio rebalancing to drive high token price volatility, network inflation remains highly stable. Furthermore, we prove that network security is insulated from institutional monopoly by counter-cyclical consumer behavior. Our findings reveal that institutional excess wealth creation in PoS ecosystems is not native to the staking protocol itself, but is strictly driven by the leveraged extraction of the retail consumer's continuous demand for transactional utility.

Museums can serve as policy tools when their content is purposefully curated. We designed a framed field experiment at the Santa Maria della Scala museum in Siena that leveraged the site's historical role offering care and hospitality.Student visitors randomly assigned to a tour emphasizing this function later donated more to an NGO supporting refugee than those who followed a standard artistic itinerary, with effects concentrated among female participants. These results show that thematically targeted museum experiences can measurably boost charitable behavior toward vulnerable groups, underscoring the untapped potential of cultural institutions in behavioral public policy.

This paper develops a binary-gamble framework for characterizing risk sensitivity and loss aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). The proposed probabilistic risk-sensitivity metric is defined as a probability-threshold ratio that determines acceptance and preference thresholds in choice problems involving either a certain outcome and a binary gamble or two binary gambles. We show how standard notions of symmetric and non-symmetric bet aversion can be recovered within this framework, and we compare the resulting threshold-based conditions with utility premia, probability premia, and Arrow--Pratt curvature measures. The analysis clarifies when these criteria coincide and when they diverge, particularly for increasing aversion conditions, binary gambles with unequal probability distributions, and settings involving probability weighting functions. We also identify technical restrictions that arise when CPT-utility functions are used to represent loss aversion at the reference point. The resulting framework provides a decision-theoretic interpretation of risk sensitivity that is directly tied to probability thresholds and complements existing premium-based approaches.

Frontier AI systems are bridging the gap between intelligence and utility by shifting from conversational assistants to autonomous agents that execute tasks end to end. Using production data from Perplexity's Search and Computer products, we study this transition by examining how AI agents accelerate and reshape knowledge work. Three key empirical findings emerge. First, using sessions with near-identical initial query pairs as natural experiments for the same underlying task attempted with both products, Computer performs 26 minutes of autonomous work per user session, versus 33 seconds for Search. Computer automates task decomposition and execution that Search users might otherwise manually orchestrate and implement. As a result, Computer shifts follow-up query distribution toward higher-order work such as verification and extension. Autonomy also increases execution quality, with per-query dissatisfaction rates 55% lower on Computer than on Search. Second, due to its autonomy advantage, Computer reduces completion time from 269 to 36 minutes on matched tasks, lowering estimated time and cost by 87% and 94%, respectively, compared to humans equipped with Search alone. Third, Computer changes the scope of work that users attempt: Computer queries more often cross occupational boundaries, require higher-order cognition, draw on broader expertise, take the form of composite tasks that bundle interdependent subtasks into a single query, and unlock work activities that are essentially absent from Search usage among the same users. Together, the evidence indicates that AI agents accelerate workflows, enhance output quality, reduce costs, and expand the breadth and depth of automated work.

Motivated by Large Language Model (LLM) cascading, we propose an online contextual Pandora's Box model for adaptively querying and selecting LLM APIs. In each period, a decision-maker observes a request context and faces a two-phase decision problem. In the query phase, the decision-maker sequentially queries APIs, where each query reveals a generated output and the decision-maker incurs an (output-dependent) cost. In the selection phase, the decision-maker selects one of the generated outputs to deploy and observes only the downstream reward of the deployed output. This output-mediated feedback structure differs from classical online contextual Pandora's Box models, in which opening a box directly reveals its reward. Rather than estimating the full conditional output and cost distributions of each API, we directly model the reservation index and develop a learning approach for the query phase. Specifically, we impose a parametric structure on the contextual reservation index functions induced by the classical Weitzman's policy. Our policy combines generalized method of moments (GMM) type estimation of these reservation indices with UCB-style confidence bounds for both these indices and the shared output-level reward evaluator. Under regularity conditions, we prove that the resulting policy achieves dimension-dependent $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$ cumulative regret over a horizon of $T$ periods.

Traditional TOPSIS derives its reference points -- the Positive Ideal Solution ($PIS$) and Negative Ideal Solution ($NIS$) -- from the observed alternative set, making rankings susceptible to misalignment with decision-maker (DM) requirements, sensitivity to outlier performances, and rank reversal. This paper proposes TOPSIS-RAD, which addresses these issues by incorporating two arrays of DM-defined reference levels. Vetoed Performance Levels ($VPL$) exclude non-viable alternatives before normalisation, preventing them from distorting the ranking frontiers. Desired Performance Levels ($DPL$) cap performances at the DM's desired level before normalisation, anchoring the $PIS$ in explicit aspirations rather than dataset extremes. Three toy examples demonstrate each mechanism: $VPL$ reshapes normalisation boundaries by removing a non-viable alternative; fixed $DPL$ frontiers stabilise rankings by limiting the influence of performances well above the desired level. The method preserves the familiar distance-based structure of TOPSIS while grounding the ranking in stable, DM-specified boundaries. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed.

Proof-of-work (PoW) blockchains rely on computational expenditure to secure a ledger supporting a native cryptocurrency. In existing systems such as Bitcoin, this expenditure is intentionally useless: the computation secures consensus but produces no external economic output. An emerging alternative -- proof of useful work (PoUW) -- enables the same computation to simultaneously secure the blockchain and generate economically valuable output. However, PoUW is often criticized on economic grounds: if the work is useful, attackers might be "paid to attack," potentially weakening security. We develop a competitive-equilibrium model of a PoUW blockchain in which compute can be allocated across pure mining, pure useful work -- instantiated as machine-learning inference -- or "duplex" work that produces both with computational overheads. We provide a complete closed-form characterization of equilibrium allocations and prices as a function of the duplex overheads and a single economic parameter -- the token-inference ratio -- measuring token adoption relative to the inference market. This characterization reveals three regimes: "Bitconia," in which the economy reduces to classical PoW; "Fortessia," in which duplex replaces mining, increasing security while useful output remains unchanged; and "Duplexia," in which token rewards subsidize inference, lowering prices and expanding inference supply. Contrary to the common strawman argument, PoUW does not make attacks economically cheap: once equilibrium prices are taken into account, the economic cost of a majority attack remains tied to the block reward. Moreover, in Duplexia, block rewards act as rebates on inference prices, generating additional socially useful computation that would not arise without the blockchain -- an expansion monotonically increasing in token adoption and technological efficiency.

We argue that modern generative models create structural risks for knowledge and cultural production at current, sub-AGI capability levels. We define Human Temporal Learning (HTL) as path-dependent knowledge accumulation through sustained engagement with problems over time. Generative outputs increasingly resemble HTL-intensive work in surface features, so verifying whether a given output reflects genuine human learning grows costly relative to its expected benefit. Once verification loses economic justification, evaluators reward outputs regardless of production mode, and producers who invested years of learning compete on price against outputs that cost almost nothing to generate. We call this pathway value collapse and formalize it through a costly-inspection framework. Cross-domain evidence from academic publishing, legal practice, content platforms, and software security maps onto four stages of verification erosion. Alignment success is orthogonal. Better-aligned models narrow observable gaps between human and AI outputs, making source verification harder and intensifying competitive pressure against HTL-intensive work even when individual AI outputs improve.

Recent innovation theories on economics remain largely grounded in assumptions of hierarchical firms and closed organizational boundaries, offering limited insight into how innovation unfolds within decentralized, digitally native organizations. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) represent an emerging form of innovation ecosystem characterized by blockchain-based transparency, open participation, and token-driven governance, in which sustainability can be embedded directly into organizational design. This study compares two standards, ERC-8004 and Google A2A, who address the same agent interoperability question, while the former is governed by DAO and the latter by corporation consortium. They are examined through an LLM-powered comparative pipeline for large-scale governance discourse analysis, integrating automated annotation, neural topic modeling, and multi-layer network analysis to study socio-technical power structures. The study provides evidence-based insights for scholars, policymakers, and designers seeking to align innovation, technological governance, and sustainability in future organizational forms.

Identifying most influential sets (MIS) - size-$k$ subsets whose removal maximally changes a target estimand - is typically infeasible because it requires searching over $\binom{n}{k}$ subsets. For estimands with linear-fractional leave-set-out effects, we show that MIS selection reduces to a one-parameter sequence of top-$k$ problems. Dinkelbach's method yields an algorithm with $\mathcal{O}(n)$ cost per iteration and finite termination. For fixed residualized inputs, the algorithm returns a globally optimal set for the univariate ratio objective, including the oracle-residualized partial linear model. With estimated nuisance functions, uniform denominator and generated-score stability imply approximation to the first-order oracle orthogonal-score objective; exact set recovery follows under a separation condition. Simulations and applications show that the method recovers exact MIS that were previously computationally inaccessible.

This study examines sequential algorithms with the Zero Jacobian Property (ZJP) for estimating structural models subject to equilibrium constraints. For the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the current study shows that these algorithms attains fast (near-quadratic) local convergence in large samples to the solution of the constrained optimization problem. If consistent initial estimates of the parameters are available, the algorithms yield an asymptotically efficient estimator even after one iteration. It then proposes a novel algorithm called Sequential Linearly Constrained (SLC) algorithm, which is applicable to a broader class of structural models than existing methods. A key advantage of the SLC algorithm is that it can be implemented without explicitly computing the Jacobian of the equilibrium constraints and can be multiple times faster than the Nested Fixed Point (NFXP) approach. The current study illustrates its performance through two numerical experiments: a dynamic discrete game with time-varying unobserved heterogeneity and a dynamic demand model.

This study examines the role of self-duality in the axiomatization of the Shapley-Shubik power index. We show that, when self-duality is imposed, the transfer axiom can be weakened to a restricted version requiring transfer only among voting games with no veto player. This result shows that self-duality can partially substitute for the transfer axiom.

In this paper we provide a constructive way for researchers to salvage the classic De Loecker and Warzynski (2012) markup recovery procedure when falsified. To do this, we consider continuous relaxations of the standard assumptions behind markup estimation. By computing the values of the markup as a function of the relaxations across the set of non-falsified models, we obtain an identified set for the markup which generalizes the standard baseline markup estimand to account for possible falsification without the need to impose additional assumptions. We illustrate our results using Chilean data from Raval (2023).

Motivated by the emergence of local groundwater exchanges, we construct and analyze stochastic models of dynamic groundwater markets. Our primary focus is endogenizing the price formation and groundwater pumping strategies in a closed market with stochastic groundwater allocations and opportunities for intertemporal transfer through rights banking. In our model, several agents, interpreted as farmers or agricultural districts, make competitive decisions on water consumption to produce a basket of goods, as well as on trading allocations among themselves, or banking them for future periods. We define the respective discrete-time non-zero-sum non-cooperative game and construct its sub-game perfect Nash equilibria characterized by the groundwater price process $\{p^\circ(t)\}$. We furthermore construct an algorithm to determine equilibrium strategies and prices through a machine learning approach on top of best-response iterations. Extensive numerical experiments illustrate dynamic phenomena, including the role of groundwater recharge dynamics, agents' risk aversion and groundwater allocations. Our model provides insights into competitive effects in environmental markets with banking features.

Building on the $f$-information model of Bloedel et al. (2025), this paper introduces a one-parameter family of information acquisition models and characterizes optimal information acquisition. This family extends the mutual information model (Matějka and McKay, 2015) while preserving its analytical tractability. The information cost is derived from the $α$-divergence, which nests the KL-divergence ($α=-1$), the reverse KL-divergence ($α=1$), and the squared Hellinger distance ($α=0$), and is represented in closed form via the $α$-integration of Amari (2007). The optimal choice probabilities belong to the $q$-exponential family, which appears in nonextensive statistical mechanics (Tsallis, 1988) and in the $q$-logit model of traffic route choice (Nakayama, 2013). This family reduces to the modified logit in the mutual information case (Matějka and McKay, 2015). We further show that the relationship between payoffs and the set of actions chosen with positive probability in each state changes qualitatively across ranges of $α$.

Conducting uniform inference on a continuous functional F defined on a compact subset X of R^d involves specifying L_n^d nodes for estimation and the construction of confidence bands. While asymptotically valid inference requires L_n to increase with n, existing fixed-L rules of thumb and heuristic data-driven approaches lack formal justification. This paper shows that, for functions within a Donsker class, the simple grid-growth condition r_n^(1/4)/L_n -> 0, equivalently L_n grows faster than r_n^(1/4), is sufficient for valid inference on twice continuously differentiable functions whose estimators satisfy r_n^(1/2)(F_hat - F) = O_p(1).

In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal effect of a treatment that is randomly assigned conditional on covariates is fully mediated by, or operates exclusively through, observed intermediate outcomes (referred to as mediators or surrogate outcomes), and (ii) whether the various causal mechanisms operating through different mediators are identifiable conditional on covariates. We demonstrate that if both full mediation and identification of causal mechanisms hold, then the conditionally random treatment is conditionally independent of the outcome given the mediators and covariates. Furthermore, we extend our framework to settings with non-randomly assigned treatments. We show that, in this case, full mediation remains testable, while identification of causal mechanisms is no longer guaranteed. We propose a double machine learning framework for implementing the test that can incorporate high-dimensional covariates and is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal under specific regularity conditions. We also present a simulation study demonstrating good finite-sample performance of our method, along with two empirical applications revisiting randomized experiments on maternal mental health and social norms.

We provide interpretable axiomatic foundations for utilities used in network games and identify several principled generalizations. First, we demonstrate that a ubiquitous feature of network games, bilateral strategic interactions, is equivalent to having player utilities that are additively separable across opponents. Common utilities based on a linear aggregate of opponent actions are strategically equivalent to additively separable utilities. Moreover, assuming real-valued actions, we show that a constant rate of substitution between opponents implies a utility that is linear in opponent actions. Finally, we identify precise conditions--linear best replies and midpoint indifference--that pin down the classic linear-quadratic utility.

We propose a solution and a mechanism for two-agent social choice problems with large (infinite) policy spaces. Our solution is an efficient compromise rule between the two agents, built on a common cardinalization of their preferences. Our mechanism, the *multimatum* has the two players alternate in proposing sets of alternatives from which the other must choose. Our main result shows that the multimatum fully implements our compromise solution in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. We demonstrate the power and versatility of this approach through applications to political economy, other-regarding preferences, and facility location.

Double Machine Learning is widely used to estimate treatment effects from non-experimental data. The "residuals-on-residuals" regression (RORR) is especially popular for its simplicity and computational tractability. However, with heterogeneous treatment effects, the proper interpretation of RORR may not be well understood. We show that, for non-binary treatments with continuous dose-response functions, RORR estimates a conditional variance-weighted average of derivatives evaluated at treatment values not in the observed dataset. This estimand does not equal the Average Causal Derivative (ACD) in general. Hence, even if all units share the same dose-response function, RORR does not estimate an average treatment effect in the population represented by the sample. We propose an alternative estimator for the ACD that is well suited to the large datasets found in applied data science settings. We demonstrate the pitfalls of RORR and the favorable properties of the proposed estimator through an illustrative numerical example and with real-world data from Netflix. Our methodology is used by default in Netflix's observational causal inference platform, where it regularly powers causal research and decision-making at scale.

In both observational data and randomized control trials, researchers select statistical models to articulate how the outcome of interest varies with combinations of observable covariates. Choosing a model that is too simple can obfuscate important heterogeneity in outcomes between covariate groups, while too much complexity risks identifying spurious patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework for model uncertainty called Rashomon Partition Sets (RPSs). The RPS consists of all models that have posterior density close to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) model. We construct the RPS by enumeration, rather than sampling, which ensures that we explore all models with high evidence in the data, even if they offer dramatically different substantive explanations. We use a l0 prior, which allows the allows us to capture complex heterogeneity without imposing strong assumptions about the associations between effects, showing this prior is minimax optimal from an information-theoretic perspective. We characterize the approximation error of (functions of) parameters computed conditional on being in the RPS relative to the entire posterior. We propose an algorithm to enumerate the RPS from the class of models that are interpretable and unique, then provide bounds on the size of the RPS. We give simulation evidence along with three empirical examples: price effects on charitable giving, heterogeneity in chromosomal structure, and the introduction of microfinance.

This paper introduces a causal machine learning approach to investigate the effects of free trade agreements and applies it to the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Previous estimates of the impact of trade liberalization have been found to be unstable and contradictory, possibly due to the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. The matrix completion estimator computes multidimensional counterfactuals in trade data at the firm, product, and destination levels. Compared with other estimators, it relies on a weaker exogeneity assumption and a more general functional form. In the case of CETA, we obtain both positive and negative idiosyncratic treatment effects at the product-destination level, although the sales-weighted average treatment effect is 6.4% in the year after the agreement. At the same time, we can estimate idiosyncratic treatment effects for the extensive margin at the product-destination level; thus, we find product churning beyond regular entry-exit dynamics: 8.1% that were not previously exported, and about 7.3% that are no longer exported. Finally, we consider the case of multiproduct firms after ranking product portfolios. After CETA, we observe a reallocation of French exports toward the first and most exported products, possibly driven by increased competition in the local market by other European producers after trade liberalization.

We propose a test for the identification of causal effects in mediation and dynamic treatment models that is based on two sets of observed variables, namely covariates to be controlled for and suspected instruments, building on the test by Huber and Kueck (2022) for single treatment models. We consider models with a sequential assignment of a treatment and a mediator to assess the direct treatment effect (net of the mediator), the indirect treatment effect (via the mediator), or the joint effect of both treatment and mediator. We establish testable conditions for identifying such effects in observational data. These conditions jointly imply (1) the exogeneity of the treatment and the mediator conditional on covariates and (2) the validity of distinct instruments for the treatment and the mediator, meaning that the instruments do not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment or mediator) and are unconfounded given the covariates. Our framework extends to post-treatment sample selection or attrition problems when replacing the mediator by a selection indicator for observing the outcome, enabling joint testing of the selectivity of treatment and attrition. We propose a machine learning-based test to control for covariates in a data-driven manner and analyze its finite sample performance in a simulation study. Additionally, we apply our method to Slovak labor market data and find that our testable implications are not rejected for a sequence of training programs typically considered in dynamic treatment evaluations.

Standard optimal growth models implicitly impose a ``perpetual existence'' constraint, which can ethically justify infinite misery in stagnant economies. This paper investigates the optimal longevity of a dynasty within a Critical-Level Utilitarian (CLU) framework. By treating the planning horizon as an endogenous choice variable, we establish a structural isomorphism between static population ethics and dynamic growth theory. Our analysis derives closed-form solutions for optimal consumption and longevity in a roundabout production economy. We show that under low productivity, a finite horizon is structurally optimal to avoid the creation of lives not worth living. This result suggests that the termination of a dynasty can be interpreted not as a failure of sustainability, but as an altruistic termination to prevent intergenerational suffering. We also highlight an ethical asymmetry: while a finite horizon is optimal for declining economies, growing economies under intergenerational equity demand the ultimate sacrifice from the current generation.

To ensure security of supply in the power sector, many countries are already using or discussing the introduction of capacity mechanisms. Two main types of such mechanisms include capacity markets and capacity reserves. Simultaneously, the expansion of variable renewable energy sources increases the need for power sector flexibility, for which there are promising yet often under-utilized options on the demand side. In this paper, we analyze how a centralized capacity market and an advanced reliability reserve with a moderately high activation price affect investments in demand-side flexibility technologies. We do so for a German case study of 2030, using an open-source capacity expansion model and incorporating detailed demand-side flexibility potentials across industry, process heat, and district heating. We show that a centralized capacity market effectively caps peak prices in the wholesale electricity market and thus reduces incentives for investments in demand-side flexibility options. The advanced reliability reserve induces substantially higher flexibility investments while leading to similar overall electricity supply costs and ensuring a similar level of security of supply. The advanced reliability reserve could thus create a learning environment for flexibility technologies to support the transition to climate neutral energy systems. Additionally, an advanced reliability reserve could be introduced faster and is more flexible than a centralized capacity market. While concrete design parameters are yet to be specified, we argue that policymakers should consider the reliability reserve concept in upcoming decision on capacity mechanisms in Germany and beyond.

Individuals often act without knowing the full structure of the social network in which they are or will be embedded. We study how an individual's beliefs about their networks shapes their behavior when actions are peer interactive. Agents use what they know about the network to forecast their peers' actions. Those peers' actions depend on their beliefs, which then generate an iterative expression what we call "Iterative Belief Centrality." Agents' beliefs formed based on what they each see of the network are heterogeneous, depend on their network position, and can be correlated across connected agents. The resulting equilibrium behavior nests both complete-information and degree-based models as special cases, but more generally can differ systematically. If people's beliefs about the network satisfy a natural monotonicity condition in how connected they are, then belief iteration (fully rationally) amplifies behavioral differences across the network, increasing actions of more-connected and decreasing actions of less-connected agents relative to situations with homogeneous beliefs. We also show how positive correlation in people's positions in the network even further amplifies the variance of behavior. The framework provides a unified and tractable theory of network-based behavior with implications for many applications.