Learning Power Flow with Confidence: A Probabilistic Guarantee Framework for Voltage Risk
学习潮流与置信度:电压风险的概率保证框架
Parikshit Pareek, Sidhant Misra, Deepjyoti Deka
AI总结 针对机器学习在电力系统安全应用中缺乏形式化性能保证的问题,提出基于高斯过程回归的概率保证框架,通过顶点度核和网络扫描主动学习算法实现数据高效且可靠的电压风险评估。
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机器学习缺乏形式化性能保证限制了其在安全关键的电力系统应用中的采用,在这些应用中,置信度和可解释性与准确性同样重要。在这项工作中,我们通过高斯过程回归框架,为潮流学习和电压风险估计提供了概率保证。具体来说,我们建立了期望估计误差的界限,将GP的预测方差与电压风险估计的置信度联系起来,确保与基于蒙特卡洛的ACPF风险量化在统计上等价。为了在低数据情况下增强模型的可学习性,我们首先设计了顶点度核,这是一种拓扑感知的加性核,将电压-负荷相互作用分解为局部邻域,以实现高效的大规模学习。在此基础上,我们引入了一种网络扫描主动学习算法,该算法自适应地采样信息丰富的运行点,并提供了原则性的停止准则,无需样本外验证。这些进展通过结合数据效率和分析保证,缓解了基于机器学习的潮流的主要瓶颈——缺乏可靠的保证。在IEEE 118、500和1354节点系统上的实证评估证实,所提出的VDK-GP实现了低于1E-03 p.u.的平均绝对电压误差,以15倍更少的ACPF计算复现了蒙特卡洛级别的电压风险估计,并在保守地约束违规概率的同时实现了超过120倍的评估时间减少。
The absence of formal performance guarantees in machine learning (ML) has limited its adoption for safety-critical power system applications, where confidence and interpretability are as vital as accuracy. In this work, we present a probabilistic guarantee for power flow learning and voltage risk estimation, derived through the framework of Gaussian Process (GP) regression. Specifically, we establish a bound on the expected estimation error that connects the GP's predictive variance to confidence in voltage risk estimates, ensuring statistical equivalence with Monte Carlo-based ACPF risk quantification. To enhance model learnability in the low-data regime, we first design the Vertex-Degree Kernel (VDK), a topology-aware additive kernel that decomposes voltage-load interactions into local neighborhoods for efficient large-scale learning. Building on this, we introduce a network-swipe active learning (AL) algorithm that adaptively samples informative operating points and provides a principled stopping criterion without requiring out-of-sample validation. Together, these developments mitigate the principal bottleneck of ML-based power flow, its lack of guaranteed reliability, by combining data efficiency with analytical assurance. Empirical evaluations across IEEE 118-, 500-, and 1354-bus systems confirm that the proposed VDK-GP achieves mean absolute voltage errors below 1E-03 p.u., reproduces Monte Carlo-level voltage risk estimates with 15x fewer ACPF computations, and achieves over 120x reduction in evaluation time while conservatively bounding violation probabilities.