Computing the final epidemic size distributions of a multi-type Galton--Watson process
计算多类型 Galton-Watson 过程的最终流行规模分布
Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura
AI总结 提出一种基于柯西积分轮廓选择的方法,计算多类型 Galton-Watson 过程的最终规模分布,并应用于模拟数据和中东呼吸综合征真实数据。
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Galton-Watson 过程 (GWP) 是一种离散时间分支过程模型,为分析流行病数据和估计基本再生数等关键流行病学参数提供了有力工具。当与基于监测的簇大小数据结合使用时,即使每个传播过程不可直接观测,GWP 也能揭示传播异质性的程度。当获得簇大小分布数据时,可通过使用与观测簇大小数据对应的概率质量函数来统计推断控制传播的参数。然而,对于多类型 GWP,实际应用仍然有限,可能是因为缺乏概念上和实践中直接的方法来推导最终规模分布的闭式解。在本研究中,我们提出一个框架,通过选择柯西积分轮廓的方法来计算多类型 GWP 的最终规模分布。我们提供了如何将我们的框架应用于模拟数据和中东呼吸综合征真实数据的示例,并讨论了在使用未以灭绝为条件的似然进行统计推断时参数可识别性方面的潜在陷阱。
The Galton--Watson process (GWP) is a discrete-time branching process model that provides a powerful tool for analyzing epidemic data and estimating key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number. When used with surveillance-based cluster size data, the GWP can also elicit information about the extent of transmission heterogeneity, even when each transmission process is not directly observable. When cluster size distribution data are available, the parameters that govern the transmission can be statistically inferred by using the probability mass function that corresponds to the observed cluster size data. For multi-type GWPs, however, real-world applications remain limited, possibly because of the absence of conceptually and practically straightforward approaches for deriving the closed-form solution of the final size distribution. In the present study, we propose a framework for computing the final size distribution of multi-type GWPs, using a method for the choice of the Cauchy integral contour. We provide examples of how our framework can be applied to both simulated data and real-world data of Middle East respiratory syndrome, and discuss potential pitfalls surrounding the identifiability of parameters for statistical inference when using likelihoods that are not conditioned on extinction.