Dense retrievers excel at first-stage candidate generation but lack effective reranking in zero-resource settings. Existing approaches face a fundamental dilemma: cross-encoders deliver strong reranking quality but require costly supervised training and incur high latency, while unsupervised BM25 reranking consistently degrades dense retrieval performance on most of BEIR benchmarks. We propose DART (Dense Adaptive Reranking at Test-time), which resolves this dilemma by adapting the scoring function at inference time. For each query, the top-ranked documents serve as pseudo-positive examples and the bottom-ranked as pseudo-negative examples, providing noisy but readily available supervision to adapt a bilinear scoring matrix $W$ via a small number of gradient updates. We further introduce a confidence-weighted margin loss and a cross-query momentum buffer that warm-starts adaptation across queries. On six BEIR benchmarks, DART achieves a mean per-dataset relative NDCG@10 gain of +2.1% over the dense retrieval baseline with under 10ms additional latency per query, demonstrating a powerful capability for zero-shot performance enhancement and cross-domain generalization.

Modern KV cache management assumes the chatbot workload: prompts arrive once and the cache grows append-only, so prefix caching and forward-only eviction are correct by construction. Agentic LLMs break this assumption. Their conversations evolve through policy-driven editing: failed tool calls are retried, stale outputs dropped, trajectories pivoted. Two distinct cache problems result. First, identical content moves to new positions between turns, invalidating exact-prefix caches even though the underlying KV would still be valid; recent work on position-independent caching for MLA addresses this reuse problem. Second, and this paper's focus, a policy may need to direct the serving system to actively remove or replace a span of cached content and continue without re-prefilling everything that came after. No existing primitive offers this. Production agentic harnesses fall back to re-prefill on every edit, paying full prefix-recomputation cost; kernel-level eviction methods make their own decisions and cannot accept policy directives from outside the kernel. We introduce Leyline, a serving-side primitive that closes this gap. A declarative directive 4-tuple separates what to edit from how to preserve position correctness. The policy declares the edit and its mode (in-place splice or prefix-trimmed re-prefill for semantic forgetting); an architecture-agnostic interface routes to a per-architecture kernel that restores attention math via a closed-form RoPE-rotation correction. The splice kernel lifts replay cache-hit by +11.2 pp and cuts latency by up to 241 ms. A ten-line truncation rule routed through the same interface lifts agentic solve rate by +14.3 pp on debug-gym. The mechanism is open; the policy space it enables is the agenda.

Audio-driven talking-head generation has advanced rapidly, yet existing evaluation protocols mainly rely on frame-wise metrics that assume strict temporal correspondence between generated and reference videos. This assumption does not match speech-driven facial motion, which naturally includes slight timing shifts, different speaking speeds, and stylistic variations. As a result, conventional metrics may treat harmless timing differences as quality errors, making it harder to fairly compare methods and understand their trade-offs. In this work, we argue that evaluation of dynamic generative models should be formulated as a sequence-alignment problem rather than independent frame comparison. We introduce a unified sequence-level reformulation that integrates Soft Dynamic Time Warping into established evaluation pipelines. By aligning feature trajectories while preserving temporal order, the proposed framework provides robustness to bounded temporal misalignments without altering the underlying perceptual, identity, or synchronization encoders. We show that frame-wise evaluation can be viewed as a special case under rigid alignment, while sequence-level alignment provides improved stability, lower sensitivity to timing differences, and clearer separation between modeling paradigms. Building on this principled formulation, we conduct a large-scale benchmark of 20 methods across seven datasets spanning canonical, in-the-wild, and style-diverse scenarios under standardized protocols. Extensive experiments show that temporally aligned metrics are more robust to timing differences, provide more consistent results across datasets, and better reveal systematic trade-offs between modeling paradigms, such as synchronization versus realism and expressiveness versus stability.

We present a benchmark for evaluating AI models and agents on real-world formal software verification tasks. We first scrape 11,039 property-based tests (PBTs) from real-world Python repositories, then automatically translate 2,772 of them (25%) into 9,415 Lean 4 specifications with sorry placeholders (about 3 formalizations/PBT; we retain multiple attempts when none dominates on quality metrics). Translating PBTs into Lean specifications is challenging: it requires modeling Python semantics in Lean, inferring the logical property encoded in an imperative PBT, and handling the inherent difficulties of dependently-typed programming in a seldom-used language. We describe a three-agent LLM pipeline for transpiling PBTs into Lean specifications, evaluate coverage and quality metrics, and provide baselines for proof generation using several automated and model based approaches. All code (scraper and agents) and data (PBTs and Lean specifications) are open source. Our benchmark aims to drive progress on the underexplored problem of AI-assisted formal verification of real-world software, which is of increasing interest as AI produces more and more of the world's code.

Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning. Its multi-step Reverse Markov extension further improves generative flexibility by decomposing complex conditional sampling into sequential reverse transitions. Despite their strong empirical performance, rigorous finite-sample statistical guarantees for these methods remain unavailable. In this paper, under deep neural network parameterizations, we establish nonasymptotic convergence bounds for Engression by directly controlling the Energy Distance between the learned and target conditional distributions. For the Reverse Markov framework, we further develop an Energy-Distance-based chain rule that enables a rigorous analysis of error propagation across reverse steps. Our analysis yields corresponding excess-risk bounds that are near-optimal up to logarithmic factors relative to the classical minimax rate over a general Hölder class.

We study linear contextual bandits under rare parameter updates: the learner may incorporate reward feedback into its parameter estimate only at a small number of update times, while still observing contexts online and selecting actions sequentially. This viewpoint clarifies a practical distinction that is often blurred in the literature: many "strictly batched" methods additionally restrict within-interval context adaptivity, meaning that the action rule inside an interval cannot depend on the sequence of realized contexts/actions in that interval (beyond the current round's context). For linear contextual bandits, we propose two practical algorithms with only $O(\log\log T)$ parameter updates. Our first algorithm BLCE-G attains minimax-optimal regret (up to polylogarithmic factors in $T$) simultaneously in both the small-$K$ and large-$K$ regimes under a static schedule. Our second algorithm BLCE removes the near G-optimal design step -- a dominant computational bottleneck in prior strictly batched static-grid methods -- yet preserves minimax-optimal regret and achieves the lowest known runtime complexity among optimal algorithms. We further extend these rare-update and computational principles to generalized linear contextual bandits. Overall, our results yield statistically optimal algorithms under $O(\log\log T)$ parameter updates that are also computationally efficient in practice.

Efficiently serving large language model (LLM) inference tasks is crucial both for user-perceived latency such as time-to-first-token (TTFT) and for GPU utilization. However, LLM request routing, that is, assigning each inference request to a GPU instance, is particularly challenging: execution is highly input-dependent; batching and KV-cache reuse create strong cross-request coupling; and latency responds nonlinearly to context length, model/engine settings, and heterogeneous accelerators. As a result, simple traditional load balancing algorithms, and even heuristics tailored for LLM inference, fail to achieve good performance. We present Lodestar, a novel learning-based request routing system for distributed GPU clusters. Lodestar continuously collects a snapshot of the cluster at per-request level, including real-time instance state, request characteristics, and observed performance, and trains an online reward predictor that it uses to route inference requests to the instance that will maximize given reward (e.g., minimizing TTFT). Lodestar is cloud-native and works seamlessly with existing serving stacks (vLLM). With continuous online adaptation to changing workloads and infrastructure conditions, Lodestar achieves 1.41x lower average TTFT and 1.47x lower P99 TTFT on average (up to 2.15x/1.86x on homogeneous and 4.38x/4.42x on heterogeneous clusters) compared to a state-of-the-art prefix cache and load-aware heuristic, and learns these efficient routing strategies within about 5 minutes, based on experiments in a public cloud GPU cluster.

Data-driven surrogate models are an alternative to numerical homogenization of heterogeneous materials. In this contribution, a supervised learning approach is presented for predicting effective Lamé parameters of hyperelastic composites from low-dimensional microstructural descriptors. The data set is based on previously published numerical homogenization results for ensembles of two-phase stochastic microstructures generated by planar Boolean models, covering variations of inclusion shape, phase contrast, and area fraction; see Brändel, Brands, Maike, Rheinbach, Schröder, Schwarz and Stoyan (2022). A neural network is trained on combinations of scalar and curve-valued statistical descriptors, including the area fraction, a derived scalar shape descriptor $τ$, the two-point correlation function $S_2(r)$, and the lineal-path function $\ell(z)$. Additional data representing limiting cases of the parameter space are incorporated to stabilize training and improve extrapolation behavior. The surrogate is evaluated by leave-one-grain-type-out cross-validation in order to assess generalization to unseen grain geometries. Numerical results demonstrate that additional descriptors can reduce relative errors. A predictor trained with $τ$ and $S_2(r)$ provides a compact representation with good quantitative accuracy and regular dense response behavior. Adding the lineal-path function $\ell(z)$ further reduces the error at the available data points, indicating that it is a promising additional descriptor; however, dense post-training response evaluations show that improved pointwise accuracy does not automatically guarantee physically admissible behavior between sampled parameter values. This motivates future work on physically constrained surrogate models, loss formulations, bounded output parametrizations, and a more systematic representation of curve-valued geometric descriptors.

In this work, we propose a prototype machine-to-machine (M2M) knowledge-guided Large Language Model (LLM) framework for automated radiotherapy treatment planning. In the proposed paradigm, Treatment Planning Parameter (TPP) distribution knowledge discovered by a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent is transferred to an LLM agent through in-context learning, enabling autonomous iterative planning without human intervention. While standard LLM-based planning often lacks physical intuition and struggles with convergence, the integration of DRL-derived guidance constrains the agent to a physically valid parameter space. Experimental evaluations are performed across three diverse planning scenarios: basic prostate cases, complex prostate configurations with increased organ-at-risk (OAR) constraints, and liver cases. The evaluation results demonstrate that the guided LLM agent consistently achieves optimal planning scores while significantly reducing the number of iterations compared to unguided planning. Analysis of the final TPP configurations reveals that the agent successfully learns a hierarchical priority of objectives, effectively restoring a logical "cause-and-effect" relationship between parameter tuning and dosimetric outcomes. Crucially, this prototype framework exhibits robust generalizability, maintaining high planning quality regardless of specific patient anatomy, treatment site, or initial plan quality. By bridging the specialized optimization of DRL with the adaptive reasoning of LLMs, this M2M framework establishes a scalable foundation towards generalizable autonomous treatment planning, ultimately benefiting clinical practice in realistic environments.

Multi-arm bandit algorithms are increasingly used in online platforms, clinical trials, and social science experiments, but valid statistical inference on their performance remains an open challenge. After deploying bandits, a natural question is whether one can construct a confidence interval for its mean reward and assess whether it reliably outperforms a baseline policy. The total reward achieved in any single bandit deployment is random, and deploying a bandit twice on the same population typically yields different reward trajectories due to stochastic rewards. Standard statistical inference methods cannot be used because bandit algorithms introduce complex dependencies in the collected data, which violate the i.i.d. assumption underlying many classical approaches. Moreover, existing inference methods for adaptively collected data only apply to estimands that do not depend on the data-collection algorithm (such as the mean reward under a fixed action). We propose Bandit Simulation for Inference (BSI), a framework that fits a simulator of the bandit environment from observed data--either on-policy or off-policy--and uses it to estimate the mean reward under any evaluation policy, including adaptive blackbox algorithms. BSI formally propagates uncertainty in the estimated simulator parameters into the confidence interval construction. Furthermore, for BSI to be valid, it requires only weak exploration assumptions on the behavior policy and avoids importance weighting. We prove that BSI yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and demonstrate empirically that it maintains nominal coverage in settings where standard off-policy evaluation methods fail.

This paper presents a fast, recursive neural solver for the J2-perturbed Lambert problem based on Tiny Recursive Models (TRM), termed the TRM-Perturbed Lambert (TRM-PL) model. TRM is a weight-shared architecture whose effective capacity emerges from iteration depth rather than parameter count: a compact reasoning module is applied repeatedly within a two-level latent hierarchy, refining a candidate departure velocity by simulating the J2 trajectory and correcting it from the resulting tracking error. This unifies initial-guess generation and iterative correction in a single, end-to-end differentiable architecture. The recursive refinement loop is a learned alternative to the homotopy and continuation schemes of classical perturbed-Lambert solvers: rather than following a hand-designed path from the Keplerian to the perturbed solution, the network learns its own sequence of corrections. We evaluate TRM-PL on three test cases of increasing difficulty: single-revolution low-Earth-orbit (LEO) transfers, multi-revolution LEO transfers, and multi-revolution Jovian transfers. Three training paradigms are compared: jointly learning the Lambert solution and the J2 correction; refining the Lambert initial velocity with target-position and J2-corrected velocity supervision; and refining it with target-position supervision alone. Across all cases, the refinement-only approaches are the most reliable. The position-supervised variant reduces the median terminal-position error from 21.7 km to 0.027 km on single-revolution LEO, from 340.9 km to 0.31 km on multi-revolution LEO, all with the same 2.3M-parameter architecture. A single Newton corrector iteration on the TRM-PL output tightens the Jovian median to 0.063 km, yielding compact models accurate enough for embedded deployment.

Recent publications have suggested using the Shap- ley value for sensor anomaly/attack localization. We study the performance of such an approach by using mathematically de- fined optimum binary classifiers in the Shapley value calculation. To judge localization performance, we study the ability of the Shapley value of a given sensor observation to determine if that observation is anomalous. First, we prove that for cases with independent sensor observations, an optimized anomaly test using the Shapley value is equivalent to an optimized lower-complexity anomaly test using a single term in the Shapley value calculation, yielding the exact same probability of error. For some popular dependent observation cases involving two sensors, including correlated bivariate Gaussian/Laplacian probability density functions and constant/Gaussian at- tacks/anomalies, we prove that these two tests are fundamentally different, yielding different decision regions and error probabil- ities. Further, we prove that the Shapley value test is sometimes strictly inferior to the other (single term in Shapley calculation) test in certain statistically dependent bivariate Gaussian scenarios with large correlation magnitude and additive attacks/anomalies, while it is strictly superior in others, depending on the sign of the correlation. One can combine these two approaches to obtain a strictly better approach in these cases. These results, which provide the first theoretical statistical analysis of Shapley-based localization, seem very interesting based on the wide acceptance of the Shapley value by many researchers and should encourage further research on this topic. Numerical results are provided which illustrate our findings.

Surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) have been widely used for expensive black-box optimization problems. However, their reliance on rigid and manually designed components limits their flexibility and generalization across tasks. Meta-black-box optimization (MetaBBO) provides a promising paradigm for adaptively configuring algorithmic components. Nevertheless, existing MetaBBO methods usually control only a single component, and few studies have investigated the unified control of multi-component optimizers such as SAEAs. Moreover, the robustness-accuracy trade-off in surrogate modeling, which is crucial for stable early-stage exploration and accurate late-stage exploitation, has rarely been explicitly considered. To address these issues, we propose AdaE-SAEA, an adaptive ensemble surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithm for expensive multi-objective optimization. AdaE-SAEA embeds SAEA as the low-level optimizer within the MetaBBO framework and jointly controls the infill criterion and ensemble-based surrogate modeling. Specifically, bagging and boosting are designed as surrogate modeling modules to adaptively balance robustness and accuracy across different search phases, while the meta-policy simultaneously selects the infill criterion to enable adaptive sampling decisions. The meta-policy is trained through reinforcement learning with parallel sampling and centralized training, improving both training efficiency and transferability. Experiments on synthetic and real-world problems demonstrate that AdaE-SAEA outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and MetaBBO-based methods. We further verify the effectiveness of TabPFN as the base surrogate model for ensemble learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to unify the control of surrogate modeling and infill criteria in SAEAs while explicitly addressing the robustness--accuracy trade-off.

Self-report questionnaires remain the prevailing tool for probing the psychological states of persona-conditioned agents (PC-Agents). However, classical instruments inherit two well-known threats: contamination from training corpora and directional bias driven by social-desirability or contextual framing. To overcome these methodological bottlenecks, we ask whether projective paradigms can be adapted into a robust psychometric tool. We introduce \textbf{GenPT} (Generative Projective Testing), which reformulates TAT, Rorschach, and SCT with newly generated stimuli and organizes assessment as a three-stage pipeline to derive standardized psychological indicators and target states. Evaluating PC-Agents induced via CharacterRAG and AnnaAgent profiles, we benchmark GenPT's reliability and validity against classical questionnaires. The results indicate that questionnaires exhibit systematic directional shifts under social-desirability framing, most strongly on suicide ideation. In contrast, GenPT's collected behavioral patterns stay near the symmetric baseline. Furthermore, under a longitudinal counselling context, GenPT-based depression assessment shifts by roughly an order of magnitude more than the questionnaire counterpart when Qwen3 serves as the backbone. Overall, GenPT complements self-report methods in scenarios where contamination resistance, bias asymmetry, and context sensitivity matter. Code and stimuli can be found at https://github.com/sci-m-wang/GenPT.

Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the reliability of conventional models. In Ghana, district-level malaria surveillance requires forecasting frameworks that are probabilistically rigorous and robust under limited data. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for modelling monthly under-five malaria admissions. GPR captures non-linear behaviour and predictive uncertainty, while Holt-Winters stabilises long-horizon forecasts and preserves seasonal structure. Using ten years of district-level data (2014-2023), performance was evaluated via rolling-origin expanding-window validation. The hybrid model achieved $R^2 = 0.9906$ versus $0.8213$ for Holt-Winters alone, with $94.2\%$ of residuals within $\pm 2σ$ bounds. Forecasts for 2024-2028 project average monthly admissions from approximately 8{,}000 to 12{,}200 cases. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed pronounced ecological heterogeneity: northern high-burden districts exhibited stable relative patterns despite large absolute fluctuations. The framework provides a scalable probabilistic approach for malaria early warning and operational planning in endemic settings, supporting Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

Skill-based LLM agents increasingly rely on long procedural documents, but full-document prompting wastes tokens and dilutes information critical to execution. We study this setting as intra-skill retrieval, where the goal is to select a minimal, execution-sufficient context from a known skill document given a query. We present SkillPager, a two-stage framework that parses each Markdown skill into typed semantic nodes offline and leverages Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR) to perform global, query-conditioned node selection online. On a benchmark of 395 skills and 1,975 queries, SkillPager achieves 78.89% LLM-judged context sufficiency, compared to 82.23% for the exhaustive full-document baseline, while reducing prompt tokens by 47.04%. A granularity ablation shows that applying the same retrieval algorithm to raw fixed-length chunks reaches a comparable 81.77% sufficiency but increases token cost by 28.81%, demonstrating that efficiency gains are driven by typed semantic granularity rather than the retrieval algorithm alone. Among graph-based baselines, SkillPager outperforms the strongest baseline by a margin of 12.16%. Further ablations show that supporting content is most effective when retained in the candidate pool and selected adaptively rather than removed by static heuristics. These results identify typed intra-document retrieval as a distinct access problem for skill-based agents.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) renders new views of a scene in real time. Like every rasterizer, it answers only primary rays, the rays from the camera through the image. It cannot trace the secondary rays that shadows, ambient occlusion, and global illumination need. We turn a trained 3DGS scene into a ray oracle by distilling a Directed Distance Function (DDF). The DDF is a small neural field. It takes a ray, given by an origin and a direction, and returns the distance to the first surface and whether the ray hits anything. Each query is one forward pass. The field is 52~MB, and its size does not depend on the number of Gaussians, so its cost and memory stay flat as the scene grows. We make three points. First, we study what supervision a DDF needs. Depth rendered from the Gaussians is too blurry to teach thin parts, while clean distance supervision recovers them. Second, we measure speed. The DDF is 26 to 72 times faster than sphere tracing an equivalent signed distance field, and unlike a bounding volume hierarchy built over the Gaussians, even on dedicated RT-core hardware, its query time and memory do not grow with the scene. Third, we show a pipeline that needs no mesh: images give a 3DGS scene, a neural surface gives clean distances, and the DDF learns from them. We use the DDF as a secondary-ray oracle for global illumination. It reproduces reference ray-traced shadows at 30.3~dB and ambient occlusion at 21.3~dB across 142 objects, and on real captured scenes. Our codes are available at https://github.com/smlab-niser/ddf-gs.

Safety alignment in LLMs does not improve monotonically across model generations. Studying four generations of Google's Gemma family (7B-31B) with quality-diversity evolution (MAP-Elites) as an automated red-teaming probe, we find that Gemma 3 (12B) exhibits 68.7% +/- 5.7% attack success rate (ASR; mean +/- std, 3 seeds), significantly higher than its predecessor Gemma 2 (45.5% +/- 7.2%; p = 0.030, paired bootstrap) and its successor Gemma 4 (33.9% +/- 1.8%). Replaying evolved attack archives across generations reveals that attacks from other generations transfer to Gemma 3 at 44-46% but only 14-18% to Gemma 4, indicating that Gemma 4's safety gains generalize beyond the attack distributions evolved against earlier generations. Under our 8B judge, copyright and cybercrime vulnerabilities register at near-100% across all generations, though a second-judge audit (Section 6) suggests the copyright result is sensitive to judge choice. Misinformation ASR jumps from 29% to 99% between Gemma 2 and Gemma 3 and remains elevated at 77% in Gemma 4, indicating the regression was not fully addressed. These patterns are invisible to static benchmarks and emerge only through adaptive, longitudinal probing. All experiments use 3 random seeds with a unified self-hosted judge; code and artifacts are available at https://github.com/bassrehab/red-queen.

Data centers now account for 4.4% of United States electricity demand, yet the grid-level effectiveness of the renewable energy certificates (RECs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) hyperscalers use to claim carbon neutrality remains unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model in which a data center operator chooses among RECs, PPAs, and behind-the-meter colocation while generators make entry decisions under endogenous financing costs. The model identifies a timing wedge -- the mismatch between consumption and credited renewable generation -- as a central mechanism through which AI demand degrades reliability, raises prices, and increases emissions even when RECs cover 100% of annual consumption. Colocation with storage addresses this wedge directly and induces the greatest renewable entry by eliminating generator revenue risk. We test these predictions by exploiting the staggered release of large language models as a natural experiment, using difference-in-differences on a novel dataset linking AI activity to local grid outcomes. AI demand significantly increases fossil generation, wholesale prices (up to 25% in treated PJM zones), and outage frequency (0.5--1 additional outages per year) near data centers, with impacts scaling in model size. Data centers with on-site generation exhibit a sign reversal in power-quality effects, consistent with the model's prediction that behind-the-meter capacity absorbs demand spikes. Counterfactual analyses show that edge inference, spatial reallocation, and colocated storage each substantially mitigate grid impacts, while REC-only strategies do not. Together, our results demonstrate that the externalities of AI to the grid are tightly coupled to procurement design and the spatial organization of data center infrastructure.

Reconstructing the three-dimensional distribution of dark matter from weak-lensing observations is a central but highly ill-posed inverse problem in cosmology. Unlike standard 3D reconstruction with multiple viewpoints, we observe the universe from a single line of sight, through noisy shape distortions of galaxies with uncertain distances, so meaningful recovery of the 3D matter field requires strong prior assumptions. Existing methods either produce point estimates with handcrafted priors or use neural ensembles for approximate Bayesian uncertainty, and struggle to capture the non-Gaussian, filamentary structure of the cosmic web. With the advent of new high-resolution cosmological simulations, we now have an alternative source of prior knowledge that captures the nonlinear statistics of structure formation with far greater fidelity than analytic prescriptions. We leverage these simulations to build a new dataset $\texttt{Conicus3D}$, which enables us to learn a data-driven diffusion-model prior capturing the full 3D distribution of dark matter structure across cosmic time. Building on recent plug-and-play approaches, we modify a diffusion-based posterior sampling scheme to the 3D weak-lensing setting, combining the learned prior with a differentiable physical forward model. On realistic simulations targeting a modern weak lensing survey, our approach yields substantially improved 2D and 3D reconstruction accuracy over baseline methods. Moreover, it produces posterior samples whose statistics closely track the underlying simulations, while remaining robust to moderate shifts in cosmology.

Current approaches to LLM adversarial testing suffer from coverage gaps: manual red-teaming does not scale, LLM-as-attacker methods exhibit mode collapse, and gradient-based approaches produce uninterpretable gibberish. We introduce a quality-diversity evolutionary framework that operates at the semantic level, evolving interpretable attack strategies rather than token sequences. Using MAP-Elites, we maintain a diverse archive of attacks across behavioral dimensions (strategy type, encoding method, prompt length). In experiments across GPT-4o-mini, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 2.0 Flash, and an open-weight coding model (Devstral-small-2), we discover distinct vulnerability profiles: GPT-4o-mini is vulnerable to hypothetical and multi-turn framing combined with ROT13 encoding (fitness 0.8), Gemini to direct attacks with ROT13 and multi-turn with Leetspeak (0.8), while Claude shows uniformly ambiguous responses across all strategies (max 0.4). The semantic representation produces interpretable attacks that reveal systematic, model-specific weaknesses, providing actionable insights for improving LLM safety and a reproducible baseline for evaluating future frontier models. Code and experiment artifacts are released at https://github.com/bassrehab/red-queen.

Merging first-principles calculations with machine learning (ML), we aim to accelerate the exploration of catalytic behaviour in novel materials. We focus on two-dimensional (2D) Ti$_2$CT$_y$ MXenes, whose versatile surface chemistry makes them particularly compelling candidates for catalysis. Resolving their composition and structure under realistic conditions exceeds the reach of standard density functional theory (DFT) due to computational cost. To address this challenge, we generate a comprehensive dataset of 50,000 DFT calculations for training and 10,000 for testing, encompassing both Ti$_2$CT$_y$ MXene configurations and molecular systems, along with an additional test dataset with 1000 genuinely new, larger systems to investigate how well models generalise. We train and validate widely used and competitive machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) models, including EquiformerV2, MACE, MatRIS, and UPET, that accurately predict atomic forces and formation energies -- quantities that DFT must repeatedly compute for structural and catalytic investigations -- for these 2D materials. This combined DFT-ML framework achieves computational acceleration on the order of approximately $1-4 \cdot 10^3$ (on a CPU) while maintaining desired-level accuracy (approximately +/- $10$ meV/A for forces and approximately +/- $1$ meV for per-atom energies), paving the way for more efficient investigations of MXene catalytic behaviour. Moreover, we perform an extensive qualitative evaluation of the trained models, showcasing the importance of comprehensive simulation-based comparison beyond benchmark metrics. The dataset and the trained models with the code are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CatalystAnonymous/catalyst_mxenes.

Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from 2014 to 2023 reveal non-linear and age-specific fluctuations in hospital admissions, yet existing approaches struggle to capture stochastic variability or provide credible uncertainty bounds. This study develops a Bayesian nonlinear inference framework that integrates a cubic baseline with a damped oscillatory kernel, estimated via an affine-invariant ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The framework accommodates limited data, models parameter uncertainty, and generates probabilistic forecasts for children under five years and individuals aged five years or more. Results show strong empirical adequacy ($R^2 = 0.9958$ for $<5$ years; $R^2 = 0.9956$ for $\geq 5$ years) with residual errors below $2\%$ and well-mixed posteriors confirming convergence. District-level analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with coefficients of variation ranging from $<0.07$ in urban centres such as Kumasi to $>3.3$ in peripheral districts such as Mpohor and Bia East. Forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a gradual resurgence: from 137,000 to 149,000 cases among children under five years and from 348,000 to 375,000 cases among older individuals, with uncertainty widening over time. By producing probabilistic forecasts, this Bayesian framework provides a principled tool for anticipating malaria fluctuations and strengthening data-driven decision-making in Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

In recent years, graph signal processing has emerged as a powerful framework at the intersection of signal processing and graph theory, providing tools for the analysis of signals defined on nodes while accounting for their relationships represented by edges. These tools have been successfully applied to various settings, including statistical hypothesis testing. In particular, non-parametric approaches based on surrogate generation have been proposed for signals on undirected graphs. However, they are yet to be extended to directed graphs. In this work, we first revisit the notion of stationary graph signals on directed graphs. Specifically, and through the eigendecomposition of the graph shift operator, we define directed graph wide-sense stationary signals. Then, we propose a new framework to generate surrogate graph signals that preserve covariance structure under stationarity assumptions. Null distributions of the test metric can then be constructed from these surrogates and serve as a reference for the empirical data. Finally, we provide guiding examples and an application on real data, in which we compare the performance of our framework with existing techniques for undirected graphs or based on naive permutation, demonstrating feasibility and superiority of the proposed approach.

We introduce causal density functions: Radon-Nikodym derivatives that compare interventional laws to observational laws and therefore act as local density ratios for causal effects. Whereas many causal-strength measures compare whole distributions after graph surgery, causal density functions provide a pointwise change-of-measure object that can be estimated, calibrated, and used to score directed influence. The basic identity \[ \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{do}}[f(Y)] = \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{obs}}\!\left[f(Y)ρ(X,Y)\right] \] makes causal density directly testable: if the estimated density ratio is correct, observational expectations reweighted by $ρ$ reproduce interventional expectations. We derive practical estimators for do-curves and directed edge scores, relate the construction to Radon-Nikodym/Kan semantics for conditioning and intervention, and evaluate the resulting estimators on synthetic and real perturbation benchmarks.

In distributed Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) inference, input-dependent token routing interacts with GPU performance variability to create persistent stragglers under synchronized execution, where the slowest GPU determines layer latency. This performance variability is inherent to modern accelerators: manufacturing variation, power limits, and thermal conditions introduce measurable execution-time differences across nominally identical GPUs. The core challenge is that MoE execution-time imbalance arises from the interaction of workload skew and hardware asymmetry. Token routing produces uneven and layer-varying expert loads, while GPU throughput depends on device-specific operating characteristics and workload intensity. Prior work mitigates routing skew but assumes homogeneous hardware, optimizing token balance rather than execution latency. As a result, even balanced token assignments can leave hardware-induced stragglers unaddressed. Thus, we propose Variability-Informed Binning of Experts (ViBE), a hardware-aware expert placement framework that minimizes execution-time imbalance across GPUs. ViBE combines per-GPU performance modeling with expert activation profiling to assign high-load experts to faster devices and low-load experts to slower ones, reducing layer-level stragglers without modifying model semantics or hardware. Because both workload characteristics and effective GPU throughput can shift across serving conditions, ViBE supports lightweight recalibration under workload/performance drift to refresh its routing and performance estimates when needed. Results show that ViBE consistently reduces execution-time imbalance and improves SLO attainment by 14%, while lowering P90 TTFT by up to 45%. We further show that the impact of hardware variability increases at scale, making variability-aware placement important for efficient, high-utilization LLM serving.

We address the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for target observations embedded in a subspace of the high dimensional data space. Using continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), we propose a Lagrangian sub-flow (LSF) framework designed to isolate and estimate the density for the relevant components in the representation and using the remaining components as context. Through experimentation with models for speech synthesis, we show that CNFs, similarly to other deep generative models (DGMs), are susceptible to the "likelihood paradox", where high likelihood is erroneously assigned to OOD samples. This is attributed to the inductive bias of DGMs that prioritize low-level structural details over high-level semantic coherence. To mitigate this phenomenon, we propose a number of geometric diagnostic signals based on the velocity field over the sub-flow trajectory. Based on these signals, we design metrics for the challenging task of zero-shot phoneme-level mispronunciation detection. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of these metrics compared to likelihood-based methods on a real-world mispronunciation detection benchmark.

It has been proposed that the brain integrates flexible, computationally expensive cortical processing with simpler, lower-cost subcortical mechanisms to achieve resource-efficient performance greater than that of either system alone. Despite the allure of this perspective, satisfying theoretical frameworks that explore this hypothesis are still limited. We extend existing frameworks in which a model-based module and model-free module learn in tandem by explicitly constraining the memory resources of the model-based module, and investigate the impact of this constraint in a simple decision-making setting. Memory constraints naturally give rise to strategies for allocating memory resources. We evaluate the performance of different strategies in different situations and demonstrate that when the rewarded states change often, it can be advantageous for the model-based module to focus its memory resources not on exploiting the current reward, but on capturing general structure of the environment. This work provides a theoretical foundation for a functional dissociation between cortical and subcortical systems during learning: the cortex supports general structure learning, while subcortical circuits specialize in reward-based learning. We further detail how these hypotheses can be tested on experimental data.

Transition metal complexes are central to catalysis, drug design, and materials science, with relevant properties strongly sensitive to their three-dimensional geometry. However, the electronic diversity and unconventional bonding environments of transition metal complexes pose a major challenge for accurate structure generation. In this work, we introduce TMCgen, a manifold diffusion machine learning model that efficiently and accurately generates geometries of transition metal complexes. By formulating the diffusion process over the metal-ligand coordination angles, combined with torsional and rotational diffusion of the ligands, TMCgen focuses on the key geometric degrees of freedom of transition metal complexes. TMCgen shows strong performance in generating accurate coordination environments on a diverse set of experimentally derived bioinorganic and organometallic complexes while requiring only few inference steps, enabling efficient generation. Our results demonstrate the potential of manifold-based generative modeling for data-efficient geometry generation, paving the way for property-conditioned design of transition metal complexes.

We establish the finite-sample concentration rate for the Median-of-Incomplete-U-Statistics (MIU), an efficient robust estimator for the expectation of symmetric kernels.