Dynamics Within Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Empirical Study of Causal Structure
潜在思维链中的因果结构:一项实证研究
Zirui Li, Xuefeng Bai, Kehai Chen, Yizhi Li, Jian Yang, Chenghua Lin, Min Zhang
AI总结 通过结构因果模型对潜在思维链进行干预分析,揭示其因果结构、步骤间影响传播及与显式思维链的差异。
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- Accepted to ICML 2026; 25 pages, 23 figures
潜在或连续思维链方法用若干内部潜在步骤替代显式文本推理,但这些中间计算难以通过基于相关性的探针进行评估。本文将潜在思维链视为表示空间中的可操控因果过程,将潜在步骤建模为结构因果模型(SCM)中的变量,并通过逐步do-干预分析其效应。我们研究了两种代表性范式(即Coconut和CODI)在数学和通用推理任务上的表现,以探讨三个关键问题:(1)哪些步骤对正确性具有因果必要性,以及答案何时可早期解码;(2)影响如何在步骤间传播,以及这种结构与显式CoT相比如何;(3)中间轨迹是否保留竞争性答案模式,以及输出级承诺与步骤间表示级承诺的差异。我们发现潜在步骤预算更像分阶段功能而非同质化额外深度,并具有非局部路由特性,同时识别出早期输出偏差与后期表示承诺之间的持续差距。这些结果促使我们采用模式条件化和稳定性感知分析,以及相应的训练/解码目标,作为解释和改进潜在推理系统的更可靠工具。代码见https://github.com/J1mL1/causal-latent-cot。
Latent or continuous chain-of-thought methods replace explicit textual rationales with a number of internal latent steps, but these intermediate computations are difficult to evaluate beyond correlation-based probes. In this paper, we view latent chain-of-thought as a manipulable causal process in representation space by modeling latent steps as variables in a structural causal model (SCM) and analyzing their effects through step-wise do-interventions. We study two representative paradigms (i.e., Coconut and CODI) on both mathematical and general reasoning tasks to investigate three key questions: (1) which steps are causally necessary for correctness and when answers become decodable early; (2) how influence propagates across steps and how this structure compares to explicit CoT; and (3) whether intermediate trajectories retain competing answer modes and how output-level commitment differs from representational commitment across steps. We find that latent-step budgets behave less like homogeneous extra depth and more like staged functionality with non-local routing, and we identify a persistent gap between early output bias and late representational commitment. These results motivate mode-conditional and stability-aware analyses, together with corresponding training/decoding objectives, as more reliable tools for interpreting and improving latent reasoning systems. Code is available at https://github.com/J1mL1/causal-latent-cot.