Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling
面向决策的光伏-电池调度优化学习
Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan Driesen
AI总结 提出一种决策聚焦学习框架,通过训练LSTM光伏发电预测器以最小化电池调度成本,相比传统两阶段方法降低平均电费3.6%,验证了预测与优化目标对齐的重要性。
详情
- Journal ref
- Journal of Energy Storage Volume 154, Part A, 10 April 2026, 121152
近年来住宅光伏的使用急剧增加。随着电池系统变得更加经济实惠,光伏-电池系统的最优运行可以为家庭带来显著节省。最优控制需要正确预测底层参数(如光伏发电量)以调度电池。尽管由于算法进步和数据可用性,预测模型变得越来越准确,但准确性通常以通用指标衡量,这些指标可能与下游应用不一致。本研究提出了一种决策聚焦学习框架,通过在下游电池系统最优调度上训练长短期记忆光伏能量预测器,将优化和预测集成在一起。将所提出的方法与标准两阶段方法进行比较。在14个月的评估期内,决策聚焦方法在根据完美预测和无优化基线定义的性能界限归一化后,将20栋建筑的平均电费降低了3.6%。关键的是,尽管该模型的均方根误差为19.9%,显著高于解耦模型的8.2%,但仍实现了这一财务改善。对决策聚焦模型进行热启动进一步改善了结果,平均成本降低约8%,同时减轻了对统计准确性的负面影响(均方根误差为13.7%)。这些发现在20个家庭以及每个家庭单独在0.001水平上具有统计显著性。这些结果表明,将预测模型与优化目标对齐对于在光伏-电池系统中实现成本优势至关重要。未来的研究应在其他数据集、替代预测模型和替代优化算法上重复这些发现。
The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal control requires correct forecasts of underlying parameters, such as photovoltaic power generation, to schedule the battery. While forecasting models have become increasingly accurate due to algorithmic advances and data availability, accuracy is typically measured in generic metrics which might not align with the downstream application. This study proposes a decision-focused learning framework that integrates optimization and prediction by training a Long Short-Term Memory photovoltaic energy forecaster on the downstream optimal scheduling of a battery system. The proposed methodology is compared against a standard two-phase approach. Across a 14-month evaluation period, the decision-focused method reduced average electricity costs across twenty buildings by 3.6% when normalized against performance bounds defined by a perfect forecast and a baseline of no optimization. Critically, this financial improvement was achieved despite the model exhibiting a root mean squared error of 19.9%, significantly higher than the decoupled model's 8.2%. Warm-starting the decision-focused model further improves results, lowering average cost by approximately 8%, while also mitigating the negative impact on statistical accuracy (root mean squared error of 13.7%). The findings are statistically significant at the 0.001 level across the twenty households and for each household individually. These results demonstrate that aligning forecast models with optimization goals is key for achieving cost advantages in PV-battery systems. Future research should replicate these findings on other datasets, alternate forecasting models and alternate optimization algorithms.