Trajectory-Based Difficulty Scoring for Reliable Learning on Tabular Data
基于轨迹的难度评分用于表格数据的可靠学习
Tomer Lavi, Bracha Shapira, Nadav Rappoport
AI总结 提出轨迹难度评分(TDS),通过分析梯度提升树的逐树累积预测轨迹,为每个实例估计难度,并在分类和回归任务中优于现有基线,同时支持主动学习、选择性预测和共形预测等应用。
详情
梯度提升树在表格数据上表现出色,但常常留下一个长尾的预测不佳实例。我们引入了一种基于轨迹的难度评分(TDS),这是一种针对提升集成模型的实例级难度估计器,源自每棵树的累积预测轨迹。对于每个实例,我们计算可解释的轨迹描述符(例如,方差、振荡峰值、符号切换和尾部稳定性),并训练一个轻量级回归模型来预测保留损失。经验CDF将得到的信号校准为$[0,1]$内的分数,支持对困难案例进行排序。在多种表格基准和集成大小上,TDS与误差表现出强秩相关性,并且在分类任务上优于现有的实例难度和不确定性基线,同时在回归任务上保持竞争力。然后,我们展示了单个难度信号如何改进多个数据挖掘工作流:用于标签高效训练的难度驱动主动学习、用于改进风险覆盖权衡的难度阈值选择性预测,以及用于更均匀条件覆盖的TDS分层(Mondrian)共形预测。最后,使用SHAP归因对高TDS实例进行聚类,揭示了以紧凑特征值范围为特征的连贯故障模式,支持错误分析和针对性数据采集。
Gradient-boosted trees achieve strong performance on tabular data, yet often leave a long tail of poorly predicted instances. We introduce a Trajectory-based Difficulty Score (TDS), an instance-level difficulty estimator for boosted ensembles derived from per-tree cumulative prediction trajectories. For each instance, we compute interpretable trajectory descriptors (e.g., variance, oscillation peaks, sign switches, and tail stability) and train a lightweight regression model to predict held-out loss. An empirical CDF calibrates the resulting signal into a score in $[0,1]$ that supports ranking hard cases. Across diverse tabular benchmarks and ensemble sizes, TDS exhibits strong rank correlation with error and outperforms established instance-hardness and uncertainty baselines on classification, while remaining competitive on regression. We then show how a single difficulty signal improves multiple data mining workflows: difficulty-driven active learning for label-efficient training, difficulty-thresholded selective prediction for improved risk-coverage trade-offs, and TDS-stratified (Mondrian) conformal prediction for more uniform conditional coverage. Finally, clustering high-TDS instances using SHAP attributions reveals coherent failure modes characterized by compact feature-value ranges, supporting error analysis and targeted data acquisition.