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2605.20152 2026-05-20 econ.TH

Caputo-Type Memory Invariants: A Fractional Generalization of the Cobb-Douglas Production Function

Caputo型记忆不变量:柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的分数阶泛化

Roman G. Smirnov

AI总结 本文提出了一种基于Caputo分数阶导数的经济动态系统模型,用于泛化柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,通过引入分数阶导数来捕捉经济系统的历史依赖性,并推导出新的时间不变量作为广义生产函数。

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AI中文摘要

标准的经济建模动态系统方法,如通过指数增长轨迹推导柯布-道格拉斯和CES生产函数,通常依赖于整数阶微分方程。尽管有效,这些模型假设经济产出仅取决于资本和劳动力的即时状态,从而忽略了政策、基础设施和技术采纳中固有的长期'记忆效应'。本文通过将Caputo分数阶导数引入底层动态系统中,扩展了指数框架。通过将标准增长速率替换为阶数0 < α ≤ 1的分数阶对应项,我们建模了经济轨迹,其中变化率是系统整个历史的非局部函数。我们证明Mittag-Leffler函数在此背景下自然地成为增长解,提供了经典指数模型的嵌套泛化。使用这种分数阶方法,我们推导出一类新的时间不变量,作为广义生产函数。我们显示,当分数阶次接近单位时,这些形式精确收敛到经典的柯布-道格拉斯函数。

英文摘要

Standard dynamical systems approaches to economic modeling, such as those deriving the Cobb-Douglas and CES production functions from exponential growth trajectories, typically rely on integer-order differential equations. While effective, these models assume that economic output depends solely on the instantaneous state of capital and labor, effectively ignoring the long-term ``memory effects'' inherent in policy, infrastructure, and technological adoption. This paper extends the exponential framework by introducing the Caputo fractional derivative into the underlying dynamical systems governing factor inputs. By replacing standard growth rates with fractional-order counterparts of order $0 < α\le 1$, we model economic trajectories where the rate of change is a non-local function of the system's entire history. We demonstrate that the Mittag-Leffler function emerges as the natural growth solution in this context, providing a nested generalization of the classical exponential model. Using this fractional approach, we derive a new class of time-independent invariants that serve as generalized production functions. We show that as the fractional order approaches unity, these forms converge exactly to the classical Cobb-Douglas function.

2605.20113 2026-05-20 econ.TH

Null player neutrality in TU-games: Egalitarian and Shapley solutions

合作博弈中null玩家中性:平等与Shapley解

J. C. Gonçalves-Dosantos, R. Martínez, J. Sánchez-Soriano

AI总结 本文研究了合作博弈中null玩家中性公理,展示了效率、线性性、对称性和null玩家中性共同决定了所有Shapley值和均等分配解的线性组合家族,扩展了已知的α-平等Shapley值类到任意实数α。

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AI中文摘要

我们引入并研究了在具有转移支付效用的合作博弈(TU-games)中null玩家中性公理。该公理弱化了经典的联盟战略等价性:而不是要求通过添加一个null玩家博弈来增强游戏时该玩家的支付保持不变,它只要求任何支付的变化都与特定的增强游戏无关,只要两者都保持null玩家条件和全体联盟价值。我们证明了效率、线性性、对称性和null玩家中性共同决定了所有Shapley值和均等分配解的线性组合家族,该家族严格扩展了已知的α-平等Shapley值类(凸组合,α∈[0,1])到任意α∈ℝ。用null玩家中性替换其对nullifying玩家的自然类比唯一确定了均等分配解。

英文摘要

We introduce and study the axiom of null player neutrality in the context of cooperative games with transferable utility (TU-games). This axiom weakens the classical coalitional strategic equivalence: rather than requiring that augmenting a game by a null-player game leaves that player's payoff unchanged, it only requires that any change in payoff be independent of the specific augmenting game, provided both the null-player condition and the grand-coalition value are preserved. We show that efficiency, linearity, symmetry, and null player neutrality together characterize the family of all real linear combinations of the Shapley value and the equal division solution, a family that strictly extends the well-known class of $α$-egalitarian Shapley values (convex combinations, $α\in [0,1]$) to arbitrary $α\in \mathbb{R}$. Replacing null player neutrality by its natural analogue for nullifying players uniquely pins down the equal division solution.

2605.20012 2026-05-20 econ.EM

Testing Heteroskedasticity Under Measurement Error

在测量误差下检验异方差性

Xiaojun Song, Jichao Yuan

AI总结 本文提出了一种新的方法,用于检测受测量误差污染的回归模型中的异方差性。该方法基于整合条件矩(ICM)方法,构造了基于去卷积残差标记经验过程的检验统计量,并在普通光滑和超光滑情况下建立了其渐近性质,假设测量误差分布已知。针对未知测量误差分布的问题,本文利用基于重复测量的测量误差特征函数估计器。此外,根据测量误差分布是否已知,提出了两种计算上具有吸引力的乘法-bootstrap方法,成功解决了参数估计效应的问题。最后,通过模拟结果和玉米产量及家庭预算份额的实证研究,证实了所提检验的优良性质。

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AI中文摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来检测受测量误差污染的回归模型中的异方差性。具体来说,受整合条件矩(ICM)方法的启发,我们构造了基于去卷积残差标记经验过程的检验统计量,并在普通光滑和超光滑情况下建立了其渐近性质,假设测量误差分布已知。针对未知测量误差分布的问题,本文利用基于重复测量的测量误差特征函数估计器。此外,根据测量误差分布是否已知,为从案例依赖的极限零分布中获得临界值,我们提出了两种计算上具有吸引力的乘法-bootstrap方法,其中成功解决了参数估计效应的问题。最后,模拟结果和关于玉米产量和家庭预算份额的实证研究证实了所提检验的优良性质。

英文摘要

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to detect heteroskedasticity in regression models with regressors contaminated by measurement error. Specifically, inspired by the integrated conditional moment (ICM) approach, we construct test statistics based on a deconvolved residual-marked empirical process and establish their asymptotic properties in both ordinary smooth and supersmooth cases, assuming the measurement error distribution is known. The issue of an unknown measurement error distribution is addressed by employing estimators of the measurement error characteristic function based on repeated measurements. Furthermore, depending on whether the measurement error distribution is known or not, to obtain critical values from the case-dependent limiting null distributions, we propose two computationally attractive multiplier bootstrap methods where the "parameter estimation effect" is successfully addressed. Finally, simulation results and empirical studies about corn yields and household budget shares confirm the favorable properties of the proposed tests.

2605.18686 2026-05-20 cs.MS econ.EM

critband: A Python Package for Critical Bandwidth Analysis of Multimodal Distributions

critband: 一个用于多模分布临界带宽分析的Python包

Ruiyu Zhang, Qihao Wang

AI总结 本文提出critband,一个基于Silverman核密度方法的Python包,用于多模分布的临界带宽双峰检测,提供了稳健的模式计数求解器和FFT加速的KDE,以及k-模式检测、成分分解、双峰强度量化和超额质量估计等功能,验证表明其在不同情况下具有稳定的估计结果,且性能优于R的modetest()。

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12 pages
AI中文摘要

多模密度估计是科学计算中的基本问题。确定分布中的模式数量是一个核心的数值挑战,应用领域涵盖生态学、经济学、基因组学和天文学。虽然R生态系统通过multimode包提供了成熟的工具,但Python生态系统缺乏等效的完整实现。我们提出了critband,一个基于Silverman核密度方法的Python包,用于临界带宽双峰检测。该包实现了基于稳健括号模式计数求解器的临界带宽搜索和FFT加速的KDE,并提供了额外功能,包括k-模式检测、成分分解、双峰强度量化和超额质量估计。对十二个基准案例的验证显示,在分离程度、方差不等、权重不等和小样本量的情况下,结果在明显分离的情况下保持稳定,而在边界情况下表现出预期的不稳定性。性能基准测试显示,在测试设置下,critband通常比R的modetest()快3-10倍。

英文摘要

Multimodal density estimation is a fundamental problem in scientific computing. Determining the number of modes in a distribution is a core numerical challenge with applications across ecology, economics, genomics, and astronomy. While the R ecosystem provides mature tools through the multimode package, the Python ecosystem has lacked an equivalent cohesive implementation. We present critband, a Python package for critical bandwidth bimodality detection based on Silverman's kernel density approach. The package implements critical bandwidth search with a robust bracketed mode-count solver and FFT-accelerated KDE, and provides additional features including k-mode detection, component decomposition, bimodality strength quantification, and excess mass estimation. Validation against twelve benchmark cases spanning separation regimes, unequal variances, unequal weights, and small sample sizes shows stable estimates for clearly separated cases and expected instability for boundary cases. Performance benchmarks show critband is typically 3-10 times faster per case than R's modetest() in the tested setup.

2605.17299 2026-05-20 econ.GN cond-mat.stat-mech q-fin.EC q-fin.RM

Geometric Brownian motion with intermittent entries and exits

具有间歇进入和退出的几何布朗运动

Suvam Pal, Viktor Stojkoski, Arnab Pal, Trifce Sandev

AI总结 本文研究了一种扩展的几何布朗运动框架,结合了新单位的进入和当前人口的退出机制,扩展了早期的随机重置模型,其中这些速率被视为相同。该模型捕捉了许多经济可观测特征,可以解释为市场驱动的企业进入/退出、工人流入/流出以及收入增长/损失。该模型非保守,尽管进入和退出速率存在不对称性,但系统最终会趋于平稳分布。此外,我们的分析揭示了分布矩的三个不同动态制度,源于波动性、漂移、进入和退出速率之间的相互作用。我们进一步推导了生存概率和与观察变量达到特定阈值相关的平均首次通过时间,与竞争的进入-退出过程相关。有趣的是,我们发现了一个最优的退出速率,该速率最小化了平均首次通过时间,为如何通过进入和退出政策影响系统结果提供了见解。这些结果应有助于理解其中增长、波动性、进入和退出共同塑造异质单位演变的经济系统的长期行为。

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15 pages, 8 figures
AI中文摘要

我们研究了一种扩展的几何布朗运动框架,该框架结合了新单位的进入和当前人口的退出机制,扩展了早期的随机重置模型,其中这些速率被视为相同。该模型捕捉了许多经济可观测特征,可以解释为市场驱动的企业进入/退出、工人流入/流出以及收入增长/损失。该模型非保守,尽管进入和退出速率存在不对称性,但系统最终会趋于平稳分布。此外,我们的分析揭示了分布矩的三个不同动态制度,源于波动性、漂移、进入和退出速率之间的相互作用。我们进一步推导了生存概率和与观察变量达到特定阈值相关的平均首次通过时间,与竞争的进入-退出过程相关。有趣的是,我们发现了一个最优的退出速率,该速率最小化了平均首次通过时间,为如何通过进入和退出政策影响系统结果提供了见解。这些结果应有助于理解其中增长、波动性、进入和退出共同塑造异质单位演变的经济系统的长期行为。

英文摘要

We study a generalized geometric Brownian motion framework that incorporates both entries of new units and exit mechanisms for the current population, extending earlier stochastic resetting models where these rates are treated as identical. The model captures realistic features observed in many economic observables, which can be explained as market-driven firm entries/exits, worker inflow/outflow, and income growth/loss. This model is not conservative and, despite the asymmetry in the entry and exit rates, we find that the system eventually relaxes to a stationary distribution. Moreover, our analysis reveals three distinct dynamical regimes in the moments of the distribution, arising from the interplay between volatility, drift, entry, and exit rates. We further derive the survival probability and the mean first-passage time associated with the observed variable reaching certain threshold under the competing entry-exit processes. Interestingly, we identify an optimal exit rate that minimizes the mean first-passage time, providing insights into how entry and exit policies can influence the outcome of the system. These results should be useful for understanding the long-run behavior of economic systems in which growth, volatility, entry, and exit jointly shape the evolution of heterogeneous units.

2603.23038 2026-05-20 econ.TH

Stable Matchings with Choice Correspondences Under Acyclicity

具有选择对应关系的稳定性匹配与循环性

Varun Bansal, Mihir Bhattacharya, Ojasvi Khare

AI总结 本文研究了当代理人具有选择对应关系而非偏好关系时稳定性匹配的存在性,提出了基于弱化路径独立性假设的框架,并在多对多市场中证明了在满足可替代性和一般循环性条件下稳定性匹配存在,同时提出了一种构造性算法来生成稳定性匹配。

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AI中文摘要

我们研究了当代理人具有选择对应关系而非偏好关系时稳定性匹配的存在性。我们通过弱化路径独立性假设扩展了Chambers(2017)的框架。对于多对多市场,我们证明当选择对应关系满足可替代性和一个新的一般循环性条件时,稳定性匹配存在。我们提供了一种构造性证明,使用“生长或剔除”算法迭代扩展或消除合同,直到达到一个强最大个体理性集。我们提供了一种算法来获得稳定性匹配,其中被拒绝的合同不会被永久剔除,这与标准DAA型算法有显著区别。对于一对一市场,我们引入了一种基于替换的稳定性概念,并提供了一种算法,当选择对应关系满足二元循环性时,可以构造稳定性匹配。二元循环性是比路径独立性弱的性质。

英文摘要

We study the existence of stable matchings when agents have choice correspondences instead of preference relations. We extend the framework of \cite{chambers2017choice} by weakening the path independence assumption. For many-to-many markets, we show that stable matchings exist when choice correspondences satisfy substitutability and a new general acyclicity condition. We provide a constructive proof using a Grow or Discard Algorithm that iteratively expands or eliminates contracts until a strongly maximal individually rational set is reached. We provide an algorithm to obtain stable matchings in which rejected contracts are not permanently discarded, distinguishing our approach significantly from standard DAA-type algorithms. For one-to-one markets, we introduce a replacement-based notion of stability and provide an algorithm that constructs stable matchings when choice correspondences satisfy binary acyclicity, a property weaker than path independence. JEL classification: C62, C78, D01, D47 Keywords: choice correspondences, substitutability, general acyclicity, many-to-many matching, matching with contracts, Grow or Discard algorithm, replacement stability, binary acyclicity.

2603.02456 2026-05-20 econ.TH econ.EM econ.GN q-fin.EC

When Does Static Willingness to Pay Mislead? A Framework for Dynamic Hedonic Valuation

当静态支付意愿误导何时?动态享乐估值的框架

Josephine Auer

AI总结 本文研究了静态支付意愿何时会误导,提出了一种动态享乐估值框架,通过家庭扫描数据展示了享乐表示对价格的现实限制,并说明习惯性形成如何在该表示条件下提高行为一致性。

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AI中文摘要

许多政策反事实依赖于消费者对产品属性(如糖、钠、咖啡因、酒精或排放)的价值评估。标准的享乐和差异化产品模型将这些评估静态化。当属性具有习惯性时,这种解释是受限的:观察到的价格反映了同时期边际价值和当前消费产生的持续价值。我开发了一个非参数揭示偏好框架用于动态享乐估值,推导出合理化观察价格和选择的必要和充分条件。利用家庭扫描数据对谷物购买的分析,我表明享乐表示对价格施加了现实限制,而习惯性形成在该表示条件下提高了行为一致性。结果提供了一个诊断工具,用于判断静态属性估值何时是合理的,以及价格如何揭示超过同时期边际价值。

英文摘要

Many policy counterfactuals depend on how consumers value product attributes such as sugar, sodium, caffeine, alcohol, or emissions. Standard hedonic and differentiated-products models interpret these valuations statically. That interpretation is restrictive when attributes are habit forming: observed prices then reflect both contemporaneous marginal value and the continuation value generated by current consumption. I develop a nonparametric revealed-preference framework for dynamic hedonic valuation, deriving necessary and sufficient conditions for rationalising observed prices and choices. Using household scanner data on cereal purchases, I show that the hedonic representation places real restrictions on prices, while habit formation improves behavioural coherence conditional on that representation. The results provide a diagnostic for when static attribute valuation is justified and when prices reveal more than contemporaneous marginal values.

2602.14816 2026-05-20 econ.TH cs.GT cs.MA

Majoritarian Assignment Rules

多数派分配规则

Felix Brandt, Haoyuan Chen, Chris Dong, Patrick Lederer, Alexander Schlenga

AI总结 本文研究了多智能体系统中对象公平分配问题,通过分析经典多数派社会选择函数在分配领域的特性,发现偏好配置与多数派图之间存在近似一一对应关系,从而揭示了帕累托最优、最小不受欢迎和混合受欢迎等属性可通过多数派图确定,并进一步证明了所有帕累托最优分配都属于顶级循环,且顶级循环可通过串行独裁制轻易找到。

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Appears in the 25th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS), 2026
AI中文摘要

多智能体系统中的核心问题是在代理之间公平分配物品。在本文中,我们开始分析经典多数派社会选择函数在分配领域的分析。利用分配领域的特殊结构,我们展示了一系列在一般社会选择中没有对应结果的令人惊讶的结果。特别是,我们建立了偏好配置与多数派图之间的近似一一对应关系。这种对应关系意味着分配的关键属性--如帕累托最优、最小不受欢迎和混合受欢迎--可以仅通过关联的多数派图确定。我们进一步证明,所有帕累托最优分配都是半受欢迎的,并且属于顶级循环。顶级循环中的元素因此可以通过串行独裁制轻易找到。我们的主要结果是对顶级循环的完全表征,这表明顶级循环只能由一个、两个、除了两个之外的所有、除了一个之外的所有或所有分配组成。相比之下,我们发现未覆盖集只包含非常少的分配。

英文摘要

A central problem in multiagent systems is the fair assignment of objects to agents. In this paper, we initiate the analysis of classic majoritarian social choice functions in assignment. Exploiting the special structure of the assignment domain, we show a number of surprising results with no counterparts in general social choice. In particular, we establish a near one-to-one correspondence between preference profiles and majority graphs. This correspondence implies that key properties of assignments -- such as Pareto-optimality, least unpopularity, and mixed popularity -- can be determined solely by the associated majority graph. We further show that all Pareto-optimal assignments are semi-popular and belong to the top cycle. Elements of the top cycle can thus easily be found via serial dictatorships. Our main result is a complete characterization of the top cycle, which implies the top cycle can only consist of one, two, all but two, all but one, or all assignments. By contrast, we find that the uncovered set contains only very few assignments.

2409.02311 2026-05-20 econ.EM stat.ME

A simple distributional difference-in-differences estimator for univariate and bivariate outcomes

一种用于单变量和双变量结果的简单分布差异-差异估计器

Iván Fernández-Val, Jonas Meier, Aico van Vuuren, Francis Vella

AI总结 本文提出了一种简单的分布回归估计器,用于处理差异-差异设计中的处理效应,特别是在处理效应在结果变量分布上存在差异时。该估计器易于纳入协变量,并可扩展到处理可能影响多个结果联合分布的情况。核心假设是未处理结果分布中组别和时间的交互效应不存在,这导致了对分布变换的平行趋势假设。本文还通过Athey和Imbens(2006)的改变-改变方法探讨了该方法与假设的关系,并重新审视了Card和Krueger(1994)关于最低工资对就业影响的研究,以展示该方法的实用性。

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43 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables; new section on asymptotic theory with respect to previous version
AI中文摘要

我们提供了一种简单的分布回归估计器,用于差异-差异(DiD)设计中的处理效应估计。我们的方法特别适用于处理效应在结果变量分布上存在差异的情况。所提出的估计器易于纳入协变量,并且重要的是,可以扩展到处理可能影响多个结果联合分布的设置。我们的关键识别限制是未处理结果分布中没有组别和时间的交互效应。这一假设导致了对分布变换的平行趋势假设。我们强调了我们的方法与Athey和Imbens(2006)的改变-改变方法之间的关系。我们还重新审视了Card和Krueger(1994)关于最低工资对就业影响的研究,以展示我们方法的实用性。

英文摘要

We provide a simple distribution regression estimator for treatment effects in the difference-in-differences (DiD) design. Our procedure is particularly useful when the treatment effect differs across the distribution of the outcome variable. Our proposed estimator easily incorporates covariates and, importantly, can be extended to settings where the treatment potentially affects the joint distribution of multiple outcomes. Our key identifying restriction is that the untreated outcome distribution does not exhibit an interaction effect of group and time. This assumption results in a parallel trend assumption on a transformation of the distribution. We highlight the relationship between our procedure and assumptions with the changes-in-changes approach of Athey and Imbens (2006). We also reexamine the Card and Krueger (1994) study of the impact of minimum wages on employment to illustrate the utility of our approach.

2605.19548 2026-05-20 econ.TH

The Full Pareto Frontier as Kantian Equilibria

完全帕累托前沿作为康德均衡

Igor Sloev, Gerasimos Lianos

AI总结 本文研究了通过调整策略空间能够实现帕累托前沿的分数,证明了任何内部帕累托有效的点都可以通过坐标变换成为乘法康德均衡,从而将效率问题与公平问题分开,允许任何规范性标准在不损失帕累托最优的情况下实施。

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AI中文摘要

乘法康德均衡解释了在社会困境中合作行为,而无需放弃方法论个人主义。然而,其结果严重依赖于策略空间的参数化——策略非等价性。我们研究了通过调整策略空间能够实现帕累托前沿的分数。我们证明了可实现的康德均衡集是整个帕累托前沿:对于任何内部帕累托有效的点,存在一个坐标变换——对行动施加下限——使其成为乘法康德均衡。证明是构造性的,并依赖于一个直观的几何性质:将原点移动到玩家无差异曲线的公共切线上的点。这一结果将效率问题与公平问题分开,允许任何规范性标准在不损失帕累托最优的情况下实施。

英文摘要

Multiplicative Kantian equilibrium explains cooperative behavior in social dilemmas without abandoning methodological individualism. However, its outcomes depend critically on the parametrization of the strategy space - the property of strategic non-equivalence. We investigate what fraction of the Pareto frontier can be attained by varying the strategy space. We show that the set of achievable Kantian equilibria is the entire Pareto frontier: for any interior Pareto-efficient point there exists a shift of coordinates - imposing lower bounds on actions - that makes it a Multiplicative Kantian equilibrium. The proof is constructive and relies on a intuitive geometric property: moving the origin to a point on the common tangent to players' indifference curves. This result separates the problem of efficiency from the problem of fairness, allowing any normative criterion to be implemented without loss of Pareto optimality.

2605.19401 2026-05-20 econ.GN q-fin.EC q-fin.GN stat.AP

External Demand, Domestic Monetary Conditions, and Remittance Dynamics in Nepal

外部需求、国内货币政策与尼泊尔汇款动态

Sahaj Raj Malla

AI总结 本文研究了尼泊尔国内汇款占GDP比重的宏观经济决定因素和动态行为,重点分析主要目的地国家的外部需求和国内货币政策。通过1993-2024年的年度数据,构建了多国外部需求的综合指数和国内货币条件指数,采用ARDL界限检验、Engle-Granger共整合、动态OLS和两步误差修正模型等小样本计量方法,发现外部需求对汇款有显著正向影响,而紧缩的国内货币政策则有显著负向影响。

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Comments
16 pages, 1 figure, 7 tables
AI中文摘要

本文研究了尼泊尔国内汇款占GDP比重的宏观经济决定因素和动态行为,重点分析主要目的地国家的外部需求和国内货币政策。通过1993-2024年的年度数据,构建了多国外部需求的综合指数和国内货币条件指数,采用ARDL界限检验、Engle-Granger共整合、动态OLS和两步误差修正模型等小样本计量方法,发现外部需求对汇款有显著正向影响,而紧缩的国内货币政策则有显著负向影响。误差修正模型确认了稳定的共整合关系,每年纠正约26%的不平衡。中期预测表明,汇款将在结构上保持重要地位,到2030年在基准条件下将达到GDP的28.3%,同时对外部需求冲击高度敏感。本文通过将PCA衍生的外部需求和货币条件指数整合到统一的ARDL-ECM框架中,推动了文献发展。聚焦于全球最依赖汇款的经济体之一,为货币政策校准、移民多样化和汇款流入的生产性利用提供了可操作的见解。

英文摘要

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants and dynamic behaviour of personal remittances as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nepal, emphasizing external demand in major destination countries and domestic monetary policy. Using annual data (1993-2024), we construct composite indices via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for multi-country external demand and a domestic Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). Our small-sample econometric pipeline includes Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Engle-Granger cointegration, Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and a two-step Error Correction Model (ECM). We also employ Granger causality tests and multi-model forecasting using machine learning and ECM scenarios. The analysis reveals a strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances and a significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions. The ECM confirms a stable cointegrating relationship, correcting approximately 26% of disequilibria annually. Medium-term projections indicate remittances will remain structurally important, reaching around 28.3% of GDP by 2030 under baseline conditions, while exhibiting high sensitivity to external demand shocks. This study advances the literature by integrating PCA-derived external demand and monetary conditions indices within a unified ARDL-ECM framework for small samples. Focusing on one of the world's most remittance-dependent economies, it offers actionable insights for monetary policy calibration, migration diversification, and the productive utilization of remittance inflows.

2605.19154 2026-05-20 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Indirect Estimators of Intergenerational Mobility

代际流动性间接估计器

Andrea Del Pizzo, Martin Nybom, Jan Stuhler

AI总结 本文研究了代际流动性间接估计方法,通过家庭关联推断收入数据不完整时的父母-子女关系,综合了工具变量、可观测特征插补、姓氏估计器和多代关联方法,并提出一个统一框架来解释不同方法的权重分配。

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Comments
In preparation for the Handbook of the Economics of Intergenerational Mobility
AI中文摘要

本章回顾了代际流动性的间接估计方法,重点探讨在直接收入数据不完整或不可用时,如何通过父母-子女或其他家庭关联推断。我们综合了基于工具变量、利用教育和职业等可观测特征进行插补、基于姓氏的估计器以及多代关联方法。为统一这些方法,我们引入了一个简化框架,其中经济状况通过多种路径传递,具有异质性的持续率。在该框架下,直接和间接估计器均可视为这些底层传递渠道的加权平均。核心发现是,选择工具或插补策略决定了这些权重,使不同方法捕捉到传递过程的不同方面。我们强调了解释上的影响,表明间接估计器不必恢复传统父母-子女相关性,而是可以提供关于长期持续性和持久不平等机制的补充证据。

英文摘要

This chapter reviews indirect estimators of intergenerational mobility, focusing on approaches that infer parent-child or other family associations when direct income data are incomplete or unavailable. We synthesize methods based on instrumental variables, imputation using observable characteristics such as education and occupation, surname-based estimators, and multigenerational linkages. To unify these approaches, we introduce a stylized framework in which socioeconomic status is transmitted through multiple pathways with heterogeneous persistence rates. Within this framework, both direct and indirect estimators can be interpreted as weighted averages of these underlying transmission channels. A central insight is that the choice of instrument or imputation strategy determines these weights, leading different methods to capture distinct aspects of the transmission process. We highlight implications for interpretation, showing that indirect estimators need not recover conventional parent-child correlations but can instead provide complementary evidence on long-run persistence and the mechanisms underlying persistent inequalities.

2605.19129 2026-05-20 econ.TH cs.GT

Correlated optimin

相关优化极值

Mehmet Mars Seven

AI总结 本文扩展了Ismail (2025)提出的优化极值概念,从混合策略配置扩展到相关分布。通过考虑玩家在对手可能遵循私人建议或单方面做出利润最大化偏差时的最坏预期收益,评估相关分布。相关优化极值在保证收益向量上是帕累托最优的。证明了在有限游戏中总是存在相关优化极值。此外,对于每个相关均衡,存在一个相关优化极值,使得每个玩家的保证收益不低于其相关均衡收益。在双玩家零和游戏中,相关优化极值与相关均衡一致,并产生最大化最小值。在非零和游戏中,相关优化极值可能严格优于所有相关均衡。通过一个简单的2x2游戏示例展示了这一点,其中存在一个相关优化极值严格帕累托支配均衡收益。

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AI中文摘要

我们扩展了Ismail (2025)提出的优化极值概念,从混合策略配置扩展到相关分布。相关分布通过考虑每个玩家在对手可能遵循其私人建议或单方面做出利润最大化偏差时的最坏预期收益来评估。相关优化极值在保证收益向量上是帕累托最优的。我们证明在每个有限游戏中都存在相关优化极值。此外,对于每个相关均衡,存在一个相关优化极值,使得每个玩家的保证收益不低于其相关均衡收益。在双玩家零和游戏中,相关优化极值与相关均衡一致,并产生最大化最小值。在非零和游戏中,相关优化极值可能严格优于所有相关均衡。我们通过一个简单的2x2游戏示例进行了说明,其中存在一个相关优化极值,该极值严格帕累托支配均衡收益。

英文摘要

We extend the optimin notion of Ismail (2025) from mixed strategy profiles to correlated distributions. A correlated distribution is evaluated by the worst expected payoff each player can receive when opponents may either obey their private recommendations or make unilateral recommendation-contingent deviations that are strictly profitable under the posterior induced by the distribution. Correlated optimins are Pareto optimal with respect to this vector of guaranteed payoffs. We show that a correlated optimin exists in every finite game. In addition, for every correlated equilibrium, there exists a correlated optimin such that every player's guaranteed payoff is weakly higher than his or her correlated equilibrium payoff. In two-player zero-sum games, correlated optimin coincides with correlated equilibrium and yields the maximin value. Outside zero-sum games, correlated optimin may strictly improve upon all correlated equilibria. We illustrate this with a simple 2x2 game with a unique correlated and coarse correlated equilibrium, in which there exists a correlated optimin that strictly Pareto dominates the equilibrium payoff.

2605.19087 2026-05-20 econ.TH

Breaking Status-Quo Inertia in Living Temporal Games: Dynamic Intervention, Implementation, and Structural Design

打破动态博弈中的惯性:动态干预、实施与结构设计

Madjid Eshaghi Gordji, Ali Jabbari, Mohammad Ali Berahman, Esmaiel Abounoori

AI总结 本文研究如何通过动态干预克服动态博弈中的惯性问题,提出了三种干预类型:有界转移、结构修改和信息信号,并证明了惯性深度的概念和阈值定理,展示了结构主导结果以及信息机制的效率与预算平衡。

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AI中文摘要

我们研究规划者如何设计动态干预以克服动态博弈中的惯性问题,其中战略代理在时间网络上控制其状态(活跃、睡眠、部分死亡)。基于我们同行论文中的连续时间随机博弈框架,我们引入了三种干预类型:有界转移(基于价格)、结构修改(边删除、添加或替换)和信息信号。我们正式化了惯性深度的概念,并证明了一个阈值定理:惯性均衡在所有转移扰动的幅度低于临界界限时都存活。一个核心的结构主导结果表明,对于任何有限的转移预算,存在一组游戏,其中无界价格干预无法消除低效均衡,但单个边替换(连续流到离散运输)却能成功。然后我们研究了具有静态类型的私有信息子类。利用统一化约简,我们证明了一个不可能结果:没有直接机制可以同时满足事后激励相容、事后预算平衡和历史隐私,同时始终实施高效均衡。在同一子类中,我们构建了一个动态pivot机制,实现了次优效率并具有有界赤字。最后,我们证明将连续流边替换为离散运输边会弱化可实现的结果集,突显了时间语义在机制设计中的重要性。我们的结果将[5]的静态分析扩展到连续时间战略网络,并为后续关于学习和均场设计的论文提供了严谨的基础。

英文摘要

Westudy how a planner can design dynamic interventions to overcome status-quo inertia in living temporal games, where strategic agents control their state (active, sleep, partially dead) on a temporal network. Building on the continuous-time stochastic game framework of our companion paper, we introduce three intervention classes: bounded transfers (price based), structural modifications (edge deletion, addition, or replacement), and information signals. We formalize the notion of inertia depth and prove a threshold theorem: the status quo equilibrium survives all transfer perturbations whose magnitude is below a critical bound that depends on the remaining horizon. A central structural dominance result shows that for any finite transfer budget there exists a family of games where no bounded price intervention can eliminate the inefficient equilibrium, yet a single edge replacement (continuous-flow to discrete-transport) succeeds. We then study private-information subclasses with static types. Using a uniformization reduction, we prove an impossibility result: no direct mechanism can simultaneously satisfy ex post incentive compatibility, ex post budget balance, and history privacy while always implementing an efficient equilibrium. In the same subclass we construct a dynamic pivot mechanism that achieves second-best efficiency with bounded deficit. Finally, we show that replacing continuous-flow edges by discrete-transport edges weakly expands the set of implementable outcomes, highlighting the importance of temporal semantics for mechanism design. Our results extend the static analysis of [5] to continuous time strategic networks and provide a rigorous foundation for subsequent papers on learning and mean-field design.

2605.19030 2026-05-20 cs.GT cs.MA econ.TH

Nash Welfare in Additively Separable Hedonic Games

可加性分离的享德利克博弈中的纳什福利

Marta Pagano, Alexander Schlenga

AI总结 本文研究了可加性分离的享德利克博弈中纳什福利的问题,提出了具有高纳什福利的划分的 desirable 属性,并设计了近似算法以最大化纳什福利,同时证明了在一般情况下纳什福利的近似难度。

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AI中文摘要

Additively separable hedonic games (ASHGs) are a prominent model of coalition formation where agents' preferences are derived from their individual valuations of peers. While social welfare maximization in ASHGs has traditionally focused mostly on utilitarian welfare, Nash welfare -- a well-established metric in economics which balances fairness with efficiency and offers scale invariance -- has been entirely overlooked. In this paper, we initiate the study of Nash welfare in ASHGs. We point out desirable properties fulfilled by partitions with high Nash welfare. This includes guaranteed contractual Nash stability in symmetric games, even for any approximation of Nash welfare. This is particularly appealing since, as for other welfare notions, Nash welfare turns out to be NP-hard to maximize, even for the ASHG subclass of symmetric aversion to enemies games (AEGs). A main focus of our study is on approximation algorithms for the Nash welfare objective. We present packing-based algorithms with approximation ratios for well-established subclasses of ASHGs: $n-1$ for AEGs and $2n$ for appreciation of friends games. This is complemented by a strict inapproximability result showing it is NP-hard to approximate Nash welfare within a factor of $1.0000759$ in general ASHGs. Further, we investigate the restricted settings with an upper bound on the coalition size or number of coalitions, and draw the boundary between the cases admitting efficient algorithms and those yielding NP-hardness: bounding the allowed size or number of coalitions by $2$ admits polynomial-time solvability, whereas bounds of $3$ or more yield NP-hardness or unbounded inapproximability.

英文摘要

Additively separable hedonic games (ASHGs) are a prominent model of coalition formation where agents' preferences are derived from their individual valuations of peers. While social welfare maximization in ASHGs has traditionally focused mostly on utilitarian welfare, Nash welfare -- a well-established metric in economics which balances fairness with efficiency and offers scale invariance -- has been entirely overlooked. In this paper, we initiate the study of Nash welfare in ASHGs. We point out desirable properties fulfilled by partitions with high Nash welfare. This includes guaranteed contractual Nash stability in symmetric games, even for any approximation of Nash welfare. This is particularly appealing since, as for other welfare notions, Nash welfare turns out to be NP-hard to maximize, even for the ASHG subclass of symmetric aversion to enemies games (AEGs). A main focus of our study is on approximation algorithms for the Nash welfare objective. We present packing-based algorithms with approximation ratios for well-established subclasses of ASHGs: $n-1$ for AEGs and $2n$ for appreciation of friends games. This is complemented by a strict inapproximability result showing it is NP-hard to approximate Nash welfare within a factor of $1.0000759$ in general ASHGs. Further, we investigate the restricted settings with an upper bound on the coalition size or number of coalitions, and draw the boundary between the cases admitting efficient algorithms and those yielding NP-hardness: bounding the allowed size or number of coalitions by $2$ admits polynomial-time solvability, whereas bounds of $3$ or more yield NP-hardness or unbounded inapproximability.

2605.17662 2026-05-20 econ.TH

Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment

通过模仿学习:一项实验

Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz

AI总结 本文比较了在两个重复的社会学习环境中,代理人聚合信息的能力。在第一种情况下,代理人可以访问公共数据集;在第二种情况下,他们可以访问相同的数据集以及他人的过往行动。尽管行动中不含额外的收益相关信息,且可能存在从众、搭便车和信息过载的问题,观察和模仿他人的行动使代理人更频繁地采取最优行动。此外,本文还研究了群体规模的影响,以及代理人观察私人数据和他人行动的设置。

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Comments
84 pages, many many figures
AI中文摘要

我们比较了在两个重复的社会学习环境中,代理人聚合信息的能力。在第一种情况下,代理人可以访问公共数据集。在第二种情况下,他们可以访问相同的数据集以及他人的过往行动。尽管行动中不含额外的收益相关信息,且可能存在从众、搭便车和信息过载的问题,观察和模仿他人的行动使代理人更频繁地采取最优行动。我们还研究了群体规模的影响,以及代理人观察私人数据和他人行动的设置。

英文摘要

We compare how well agents aggregate information in two repeated social learning environments. In the first setting agents have access to a public data set. In the second they have access to the same data, and also to the past actions of others. Despite the fact that actions contain no additional payoff-relevant information, and despite potential herd behavior, free riding and information overload issues, observing and imitating the actions of others leads agents to take the optimal action more often in the second setting. We also investigate the effect of group size, as well as a setting in which agents observe private data and others' actions.

2603.07018 2026-05-20 stat.ME cs.LG econ.EM

TEA-Time: Transporting Effects Across Time

TEA-Time: 跨时间效应传输

Harsh Parikh, Gabriel Levin-Konigsberg, Dominique Perrault-Joncas, Alexander Volfovsky

AI总结 本文提出了一种跨时间效应传输的方法,通过分离的时变效应假设正式化传输的平均处理效应,推导出两种识别策略:重复试验和共同臂,并为每种策略开发双重稳健、半参数高效估计器。

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AI中文摘要

从随机对照试验中估计的处理效应不仅局限于研究人群,还局限于试验进行的时间。关于将实验结果推广到新人群的文献非常广泛,但跨时间传输效应却受到较少关注,甚至定义目标估计量也并不明显。我们正式化了在可分离的时变效应假设下的传输平均处理效应,推导出两种识别策略:重复试验和共同臂,并为每种策略开发双重稳健、半参数高效估计器。应用于一个大型的头条A/B测试档案库,共同臂策略在精度上显著更高,但当时间因素依赖于干预与测量之间的间隔而非单独的测量时间时,会表现出系统性偏差,而允许这种依赖的重复试验策略则更忠实于真实情况。模拟研究探讨了每种策略在何时可靠以及何时会无声地失败。

英文摘要

Treatment effects estimated from a randomized controlled trial are local not only to the study population but also to the time at which the trial was conducted. The literature on generalizing experimental findings to new populations is extensive, yet transporting effects across time has received far less attention, and even defining the target estimand is nonobvious. We formalize the transported average treatment effect under a separable temporal effects assumption, derive two identification strategies: replicated trials and common arm, and develop doubly robust, semiparametrically efficient estimators for each. Applied to a large archive of headline A/B tests, the common arm strategy is substantially more precise but exhibits systematic bias when the temporal factor depends on the gap between intervention and measurement rather than on measurement time alone, while the replicated trials strategy, which allows this dependence, tracks the ground truth more faithfully. Simulation studies investigate when each strategy is reliable and when it silently fails.

2505.19244 2026-05-20 econ.EM

Sharpening Identification in Large Structural VARs Using Narrative Restrictions

通过叙事限制提升大规模结构VARs的识别

Lukas Berend, Jan Prüser

AI总结 本文提出了一种高维结构向量自回归框架,通过误差项的因子结构容纳大量线性不等式限制,以提升大规模结构VARs的识别精度和经济解释性。

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AI中文摘要

我们提出了一种高维结构向量自回归框架,其误差项具有因子结构,能够容纳对冲击脉冲响应和结构冲击的大量线性不等式限制。我们的框架扩展了近期在大规模符号限制VARs中的最新进展,通过通过先验分布对结构冲击施加限制,直接引入叙事限制,从而提升识别精度并增强结构冲击的经济解释性。为了估计模型,我们开发了一种计算高效的采样算法,该算法在模型维度和施加的限制数量方面都具有良好的扩展性,同时避免了现有拒绝基于方法所固有的低接受率问题。我们将其方法应用于美国经济的大规模结构VAR模型,识别出十个结构冲击,并追踪其动态效应于三十-nine宏观经济和金融变量。实证应用表明,在高维设置中,引入叙事限制通过减少冲击响应函数的不确定性,从而提升了结构识别的精度,并有助于更清晰地解释识别出的结构冲击。

英文摘要

We propose a high-dimensional structural vector autoregression framework with a factor structure in the error terms that accommodates a large number of linear inequality restrictions on both impact impulse responses and structural shocks. Our framework extends recent advances in large sign-restricted VARs by allowing narrative restrictions to be imposed directly through constraints on structural shocks via prior distributions, thereby sharpening identification and enhancing the economic interpretability of the structural shocks. To estimate the model, we develop a computationally efficient sampling algorithm that scales well with both model dimension and the number of imposed restrictions, while avoiding the low acceptance-rate problems associated with existing rejection-based approaches. We apply our methodology to a large-scale structural VAR model of the U.S. economy, identifying ten structural shocks and tracing their dynamic effects across thirty-nine macroeconomic and financial variables. The empirical application demonstrates that the incorporation of narrative restrictions improves structural identification in high-dimensional settings by reducing the uncertainty surrounding impulse response functions and facilitating a clearer economic interpretation of the identified structural shocks.

2407.04448 2026-05-20 econ.EM

Learning control variables and instruments for causal analysis in observational data

在观察性数据中学习因果分析的控制变量和工具变量

Nicolas Apfel, Julia Hatamyar, Martin Huber, Jannis Kueck

AI总结 本文提出了一种基于数据驱动和机器学习的方法,用于检测适合的控制变量和工具变量,以评估治疗对结果的因果效应。方法通过测试工具变量和控制变量的联合存在,学习从观测数据中划分工具变量和控制变量。研究证明了在一定正则条件下,该方法在有限样本中的稳健性,并通过模拟研究和健康数据应用验证了其有效性。

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AI中文摘要

本文介绍了一种数据驱动、基于机器学习的方法,用于在观察性数据中检测适合的控制变量和工具变量,以评估治疗对结果的因果效应。我们的方法测试了工具变量和控制变量的联合存在,这些工具变量与治疗相关但不直接与结果相关(至少在可观测变量条件上),而控制变量在条件上使治疗外生。我们从观测数据中学习工具变量和控制变量的划分。检测工具变量和控制变量的集合依赖于适当工具变量在治疗和合适控制变量条件下条件独立于结果的条件。我们建立了在一定正则条件下检测控制变量和工具变量方法的一致性,通过模拟研究调查了有限样本性能,并提供了一个针对俄勒冈健康保险实验健康数据的实证应用。

英文摘要

This study introduces a data-driven, machine learning-based method to detect suitable control variables and instruments for assessing the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data. Our approach tests the joint existence of instruments, which are associated with the treatment but not directly with the outcome (at least conditional on observables), and suitable control variables, conditional on which the treatment is exogenous, and learns the partition of instruments and control variables from the observed data. The detection of sets of instruments and control variables relies on the condition that proper instruments are conditionally independent of the outcome given the treatment and suitable control variables. We establish the consistency of our method for detecting control variables and instruments under certain regularity conditions, investigate the finite sample performance through a simulation study, and provide an empirical application to health data from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

2209.00822 2026-05-20 cs.GT econ.TH

Optimal design of lottery with cumulative prospect theory

基于累积前景理论的彩票最优设计

Shunta Akiyama, Mitsuaki Obara, Yasushi Kawase

AI总结 本文基于累积前景理论,研究了在买家决策遵循该理论框架下,如何设计最大化卖家利润的彩票,并提出了线性时间算法和适用于更广泛场景的高效算法。

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Comments
29 pages
AI中文摘要

彩票是卖方和买家之间的一种常见赌博形式。设计彩票需要一个模型来描述买家在面对不确定结果时的决策过程。累积前景理论(CPT)是一种描述性模型,能够捕捉人们对极端事件的过度估计倾向以及对收益和损失的不同态度。在本研究中,我们设计了一个彩票,以在买家的决策遵循CPT框架时最大化卖方的利润。主要困难在于CPT框架的非凸性,我们通过将问题重新表述为三级优化问题并刻画其最优解来克服这一困难。基于分析,我们提出了一种线性时间算法来计算最优彩票。此外,我们还提出了一种适用于更广泛场景的高效算法,该场景包含彩票价格约束。这是首次将CPT框架应用于设计具有超过两个结果的最优彩票。

英文摘要

Lotteries are a prevalent form of gambling between a seller and buyers. Designing a lottery requires a model of how buyers make decisions when confronted with uncertain outcomes. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a descriptive model that captures people's propensity to overestimate extreme events and their different attitudes toward gains and losses. In this study, we design a lottery that maximizes the seller's profit when the buyers' decision-making adheres to the CPT framework. The main difficulty is the nonconvexity of the CPT framework, which we overcome by reformulating the problem as a three-level optimization problem and characterizing its optimal solution. Based on the analysis, we propose a linear-time algorithm that computes the optimal lottery. Furthermore, we present an efficient algorithm applicable to a broader setting with a ticket price constraint. This is the first study to employ the CPT framework in designing an optimal lottery with more than two outcomes.

2203.15890 2026-05-20 econ.EM stat.ME

Testing the identification of causal effects in observational data

检验观测数据中因果效应的识别

Martin Huber, Jannis Kueck

AI总结 本文研究了在观测数据中检验治疗对结果的因果效应的可检验条件,通过机器学习方法提出测试该条件的检验方法,并在模拟研究中检验其渐近行为和有限样本性能,同时应用该方法评估生育对女性劳动力供给的影响,发现使用兄弟姐妹前两孩性别比作为工具变量时存在可检验假设的违反。

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AI中文摘要

本文研究了在观测数据中检验治疗对结果的因果效应的可检验条件,该条件依赖于两组变量:需要控制的观测协变量和一个怀疑的工具变量。在经验应用中常见的因果结构下,怀疑的工具变量在治疗和协变量给定的情况下对结果的条件独立性具有两个含义。第一,工具变量是有效的,即它不直接影响结果(除了通过治疗外),并且在协变量条件下无混杂。第二,治疗在协变量条件下无混杂,因此治疗效应可以被识别。我们建议基于机器学习方法的测试该条件独立性的检验方法,这些方法以数据驱动的方式考虑协变量,并在模拟研究中检验其渐近行为和有限样本性能。我们还应用我们的检验方法来评估使用前两个孩子的兄弟姐妹性别比作为工具变量时生育对女性劳动力供给的影响,这在考虑的中等社会经济协变量集下大多指向我们可检验假设的违反。

英文摘要

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.

2605.19014 2026-05-20 cs.LG econ.EM stat.ML

SAGA: A Sequence-Adaptive Generative Architecture for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal Conformal Prediction

SAGA:一种序列自适应的生成架构,用于多时间跨度概率预测的自适应时间符合预测

Gustav Olaf Yunus Laitinen-Fredriksson Lundström-Imanov, Hafize Gonca Cömert

AI总结 本文提出SAGA,一种用于不规则表格面板序列的解码器-only transformer,结合分割符合校准包装器,提供个体层面的预测区间,并保证有限样本边缘覆盖。SAGA在瑞典LISA登记处的纵向数据上训练,预测了1到30年的年度劳动收入,并通过蒙特卡洛方法汇总成现值寿命收入分布。与传统参数过程和表格和循环基线相比,SAGA在10年时间跨度上将连续排名概率分数减少了31.9%,在20年时间跨度上将平均绝对误差减少了37.7%。符合区间在边缘情况下覆盖率为0.4个百分点,在最差的人口子群体中为2.4个百分点。重建的寿命收入基尼系数为0.327,与部分观测的真实值0.341和GKOS估计值0.378相比。模型权重、校准表和合成等价数据集已发布,供在保护的SCB MONA环境中外的复制使用。

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14 pages, 3 figures, 12 tables, 5 appendices, 45 references. Submitted to IEEE TPAMI. Source code at https://github.com/olaflaitinen/saga (archived: doi:10.5281/zenodo.20260366). Synthetic equivalent dataset: doi:10.5281/zenodo.20260287. Empirical work conducted on the Swedish LISA register via SCB MONA (project SCB-MONA-2026-147); ethical approval Swedish Ethical Review Authority 2026-04127-01
AI中文摘要

用于财政部门和中央银行的微模拟模型依赖于参数过程来捕捉生命周期收入的寿命,这些过程只捕捉条件分布的一阶和二阶矩,忽略了长期非线性结构。我们提出SAGA,一种用于不规则表格面板序列的解码器-only transformer,结合分割符合校准包装器,提供个体层面的预测区间,并保证有限样本边缘覆盖。在1990年至2022年的纵向瑞典LISA登记处数据上训练,包含2,143,817个个体和61,284,903人年,模型预测了1到30年的年度劳动收入,并通过蒙特卡洛方法汇总成现值寿命收入分布。与传统参数过程和表格和循环基线相比,SAGA在10年时间跨度上将连续排名概率分数减少了31.9%,在20年时间跨度上将平均绝对误差减少了37.7%。符合区间在边缘情况下覆盖率为0.4个百分点,在最差的人口子群体中为2.4个百分点。重建的寿命收入基尼系数为0.327,与部分观测的真实值0.341和GKOS估计值0.378相比。模型权重、校准表和合成等价数据集已发布,供在保护的SCB MONA环境中外的复制使用。

英文摘要

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

2605.18935 2026-05-20 econ.EM

The Agentic Economy: Humans, AI Agents, Robots, and the Measurable Transition toward Distributed Economic Action

代理经济:人类、AI代理、机器人以及向分布式经济行动的可测量转型

Davit Gondauri, Mikheil Batiashvili

AI总结 本文提出代理经济的概念,并探讨其可测量的先决条件:经济行动在人类、AI代理、工业机器人、可执行协议、计算基础设施和能源系统之间日益分散。研究指出,传统类别如劳动、资本、企业、市场、生产率和信任仍然必要但不完整。方法上采用概念-实证定量诊断设计,利用公开的AI投资、AI采纳、机器人安装和运营库存、数据中心电力需求以及劳动力市场再分配数据。结果表明,AI采纳加速,AI投资信号广泛资本分配,工业机器人代表持续的网络物理行动能力,计算扩展增加数据中心电力压力,劳动力预测更一致于任务再分配而非劳动力消失。本文贡献了一个连接模型/软件代理能力、机器人能力、计算-能源耦合、协议化、可审计信任和人类主权的行动能力框架。结论是代理经济尚未成为全球秩序,但其转型压力足以要求独特的经济词汇、可重复的诊断和未来行业层面的测量。

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52 pages, 5 figures, 16 tables, 8 algorithms. Original conceptual-empirical diagnostic article
AI中文摘要

本文发展了代理经济的概念,并诊断其可测量的先决条件:一种经济行动在人类、AI代理、工业机器人、可执行协议、计算基础设施和能源系统之间日益分散的转型。本文认为,传统类别如劳动、资本、企业、市场、生产率和信任仍然必要但不完整,当技术准备决策、协调工作流程、支持任务、验证交易和重塑责任时。方法上,研究采用概念-实证定量诊断设计,而非因果计量经济学模型。它依赖于公开的机构数据,包括AI投资、AI采纳、机器人安装和运营库存、数据中心电力需求以及劳动力市场再分配数据。报告的值通过透明的指标如相对增长、CAGR、增长乘数、库存-流量比率、集中比率和HHI进行转换。结果表明,AI采纳正在加速,AI投资信号广泛资本分配,工业机器人代表持续的网络物理行动能力,计算扩展增加数据中心电力压力,劳动力预测更一致于任务再分配而非劳动力消失。本文贡献了一个连接模型/软件代理能力、机器人能力、计算-能源耦合、协议化、可审计信任和人类主权的行动能力框架。它得出结论,代理经济尚未成为全球秩序,但其转型压力足够大,需要独特的经济词汇、可重复的诊断和未来行业层面的测量。

英文摘要

This article develops the concept of the agentic economy and diagnoses its measurable preconditions: a transition in which economic action is increasingly distributed among humans, AI agents, industrial robots, executable protocols, compute infrastructures, and energy systems. The paper argues that classical categories such as labour, capital, firm, market, productivity, and trust remain necessary but incomplete when technologies prepare decisions, coordinate workflows, support tasks, verify transactions, and reshape responsibility. Methodologically, the study uses a conceptual-empirical quantitative diagnostic design rather than a causal econometric model. It relies on public institutional data on AI investment, AI adoption, robot installations and operational stock, data-centre electricity demand, and labour-market reallocation. The reported values are transformed through transparent indicators such as relative growth, CAGR, growth multipliers, stock-flow ratios, concentration ratios, and HHI. The results show that AI adoption is accelerating, AI investment signals broad capital allocation, industrial robots represent persistent cyber-physical action capacity, compute expansion increases data-centre electricity pressure, and labour projections are more consistent with task reallocation than labour disappearance. The article contributes an action-capacity framework linking model/software-agent capacity, robotic capacity, compute-energy coupling, protocolisation, auditable trust, and human sovereignty. It concludes that the agentic economy is not yet a completed global order, but its transition pressure is measurable enough to require a distinct economic vocabulary, reproducible diagnostics, and future sector-level measurement.

2605.18887 2026-05-20 econ.EM econ.GN q-fin.EC stat.AP

Valuing Winners: When and How to Correct for Selection Bias in Randomized Experiments

估值赢家:何时以及如何在随机实验中纠正选择偏差

Ron Berman, Walter W. Zhang, Hangcheng Zhao

AI总结 本文研究了在随机实验中如何纠正选择偏差,区分了全局和选择性赢家诅咒两种形式,并探讨了如何根据管理目标选择合适的方法。

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68 pages
AI中文摘要

决策者经常选择随机实验中表现最好的处理方法,从而产生赢家诅咒:选择倾向于那些观察到的结果较高的处理,部分原因是统计噪声,因此对赢家的简单估计存在向上偏差。我们区分了两种形式的赢家诅咒,即相对于真实最佳处理的偏差(全局)和相对于所选处理真实均值的偏差(选择性),并将它们与部署次优处理的遗憾联系起来。该框架定义了七个决策相关的评估目标:全局和选择性赢家诅咒的均值偏差、均方误差和置信区间覆盖率,以及均值遗憾。然后我们显示,在一种目标上表现良好的方法可能在其他目标上表现不佳,因此纠正措施应与管理目标相匹配。在具有不同效应大小、多臂设置和校准到在线A/B测试平台的数据模拟中,没有方法在所有情况下都占优:插值估计器在处理差异较大的情况下表现最佳,交叉拟合在处理相似时表现最佳,而重采样方法在中等差异时通常能实现较低的均方误差。我们还介绍了一种自适应经验似然程序,该程序在各种情况下都能提供渐近有效的置信区间,而无需重采样方法的调参敏感性。

英文摘要

Decision-makers often deploy the best-performing treatment from a randomized experiment, creating a winner's curse: selection favors treatments whose observed outcomes are high partly because of statistical noise, so the naïve estimate of the winner is upward biased. We distinguish two forms of winner's curse, bias relative to the true best treatment (global) and bias relative to the selected treatment's true mean (selective), and link them to regret from deploying a suboptimal treatment. This framework defines seven decision-relevant evaluation targets: mean bias, mean squared error, and confidence interval coverage for the global and selective winner's curse, and mean regret. We then show that methods that perform well on one target can perform poorly on others, so corrections should be matched to the manager's objective. Across simulations with varying effect sizes, multiple-arm settings, and data calibrated to an online A/B testing platform, no method dominates uniformly: the plug-in estimator performs best when treatment differences are large, cross-fitting performs best when treatments are similar, and resampling methods often achieve low mean squared error for moderate differences. We also introduce an adaptive empirical likelihood procedure that delivers asymptotically valid confidence intervals across settings without the tuning sensitivity of resampling-based methods.

2605.18784 2026-05-20 q-fin.RM cs.AI cs.CR cs.CY econ.GN q-fin.EC

The Insurability Frontier of AI Risk: Mapping Threats to Affirmative Coverage, Silent Exposures, and Exclusions

AI风险的可保险边界:将威胁映射到积极保险、沉默暴露和排除

Alex Leung, Rex Zhang, Ervin Ling, Kentaroh Toyoda, SiewMei Loh

AI总结 本文研究了AI风险在商业保险中的可保险性边界,通过分析55类AI威胁与26种保险产品和排除制度,揭示了四个层次的可保险性前沿:积极保险的风险、沉默AI暴露、主动排除的风险以及传统私人保险结构之外的风险。

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AI中文摘要

代理AI的快速扩散为商业保险创造了一个新的覆盖问题:一些AI中介的损失现在被积极保险,一些在传统网络安全、技术错误与遗漏(E&O)、董事与高管(D&O)、雇佣实践责任(EPLI)、犯罪和媒体政策下产生沉默AI暴露,而其他则被积极排除。本文通过编码55类AI威胁与26种保险产品、保证和排除制度,利用公开承运商材料和OWASP/MITRE威胁目录,确定了四个层次的可保险性前沿:积极保险的风险、沉默AI暴露、主动排除的风险以及传统私人保险结构之外的风险。我们的编码测量公开声明的定位,而非执行合同的措辞;头条统计数据描述承运商公开声明的覆盖情况,而非任何具体索赔将支付什么。三个模式显现。首先,积极AI覆盖开始通过主要风险重点进行区分:公开材料通常将慕尼黑再保险定位在模型性能和漂移,Armilla和 Lloyd's 市场部分围绕幻觉和更广泛的AI责任,Tokio Marine Kiln和CFC围绕知识产权和技术E&O关注,Apollo ibott围绕新兴自主系统责任,Coalition围绕深度伪造和AI增强的网络安全响应。其次,传统业务线在AI作为工具而非损失法律原因的情况下保留沉默AI暴露。第三,基础模型集中是清晰的真正新型可保险性前沿,因为上游模型失败可以一次关联多个被保险人损失;相关市场设计问题是每个候选结构放松了哪些可保险性约束,而不是仅仅存在哪种系统性风险模板。

英文摘要

The rapid diffusion of agentic AI has created a new coverage problem for commercial insurance: some AI-mediated losses are now affirmatively insured, some create silent-AI exposure under legacy cyber, technology errors-and-omissions (E&O), directors-and-officers (D&O), employment practices liability (EPLI), crime, and media policies, and others are being actively excluded. This paper maps that emerging boundary by coding 55 AI threat classes against 26 insurance products, endorsements, and exclusion regimes using public carrier materials and OWASP/MITRE threat catalogs. We identify a four-tier insurability frontier: affirmatively insured perils, silent-AI exposures, actively excluded perils, and perils outside conventional private insurance structures. Our coding measures publicly claimed positioning rather than executed contract wording; the headline statistics describe what carriers publicly state about coverage, not what would be paid in any specific claim. Three patterns emerge. First, affirmative AI coverage is beginning to differentiate by primary risk emphasis: public materials often position Munich Re around model performance and drift, Armilla and parts of the Lloyd's market around hallucination and broader AI liability, Tokio Marine Kiln and CFC around IP and technology E&O concerns, Apollo ibott around emerging autonomous system liability, and Coalition around deepfake and AI-enabled cyber response. Second, legacy lines retain silent-AI exposure where AI is an instrumentality rather than the legal cause of loss. Third, foundation model concentration is the clearest genuinely novel insurability frontier because upstream model failure can correlate losses across many cedents at once; the relevant market design question is which insurability constraint each candidate structure relaxes, not merely which systemic risk template exists.

2605.18779 2026-05-20 physics.soc-ph cs.GT econ.TH

Achieving Generational Peace in Mali through Intergenerational Mean-Field-Type Game-based Incentives

通过代际均场型博弈激励实现马里世代和平

Hamidou Tembine

AI总结 本文提出一个代际均场型博弈模型,研究马里及邻国多主体冲突生态系统,揭示代际报复型行为如何导致暴力持续传承,并通过代际兼容的激励机制推动系统性缓和。

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Presented at IA Mali 2025. At CSS 2026
AI中文摘要

本文发展了一个代际均场型博弈(MFTG)模型,以模拟马里及邻国的多主体冲突生态系统,包括正式国家力量、传统猎人、非国家武装组织、激进分子、犯罪网络、民间社会和国际代理。每个决策者(代理人、一组代理人或代表性代理人)由类型、状态、信息结构和行动定义,其收益不仅取决于个体决策,还取决于所有代理人特征分布的演变。模型揭示,由于存在如创伤条件化的复仇型儿童士兵等报复型行为,暴力循环可以跨多代延续。模型还捕捉到战争企业家利用制度脆弱性,通过军火销售、武装组织雇佣和无登记市场中介持续获利的行为。这些行为者注入最少资源以触发有利的升级,将潜在紧张转化为自我强化的暴力经济。我们显示,在缺乏结构性反激励的情况下,和平策略是非吸收的,而暴力对战争企业家而言仍具动态收益。然而,通过将兼容激励、信息适应性转移直接嵌入即时收益中,奖励可验证的和平建设并惩罚侵略,可以将均场型均衡分布跨代向更和平的类型转移,推动系统性缓和。我们还讨论了此类机制在实地中的资金和实际实施问题。

英文摘要

This article develops an intergenerational mean-field-type game (MFTG) to model Mali's and neighbouring countries multi-actor conflict ecosystem, which includes formal state forces, traditional hunters, nonstate militias, jihadists, criminal networks, civil societies, and international proxies. Each decision-maker (agent, a group of agents or representative agent) is defined by a type, state, information structure, and action, with payoffs dependent not only on individual decisions but also on the evolving distribution of all agents' profiles. The model reveals that cycles of violence can persist across multiple generations due to the embedded presence of retaliatory types such as revenger child-soldiers whose trauma-conditioned best-responses favor conflict, and whose behavior reinforces intergenerational transmission of violence. The model also captures the strategic exploitation of institutional fragility by war entrepreneurs who profit from sustained instability through arms sales, militia contracting, and unregistered market mediation. These actors inject minimal resources to trigger profitable escalations, turning latent tensions into self-reinforcing violence economies. We show that in the absence of structural counterincentives, peaceful strategies are non-absorbing, and violence remains dynamically rewarding for war entrepreneurs. However, by embedding incentive-compatible, information-adaptive transfers directly into instantaneous payoffs, rewarding verifiable peacebuilding and penalizing aggression, it is possible to shift the mean-field-type equilibrium distribution intergenerationally toward more peaceful types and drive systemic de-escalation. We also discuss about the funding and the real implementation of such mechanisms in the field.

2506.19958 2026-05-20 stat.ME econ.GN q-fin.EC stat.AP stat.CO

RobustiPy: An efficient next generation multiversal library with model selection, averaging, resampling, and explainable artificial intelligence

RobustiPy: 一个高效的下一代多宇宙库,包含模型选择、平均、重采样和可解释人工智能

Daniel Valdenegro, Jiani Yan, Duiyi Dai, Charles Rahal

AI总结 本文提出RobustiPy,一个高效的多宇宙分析库,通过统一的模块化框架整合了重采样推断、组合规范搜索、模型选择与平均、联合推断和可解释AI方法,以提高实证研究的透明度和可重复性。

详情
AI中文摘要

科学推断常常受到广泛但很少探索的“多宇宙”可辩护建模选择的影响,这些选择可以产生与研究现象一样多变的结果。我们介绍了RobustiPy,一个开源的Python库,它系统化地在大规模上进行多宇宙分析和模型不确定性量化。RobustiPy在一个模块化、可重复的框架中统一了基于重采样的推断、组合规范搜索、模型选择和平均、联合推断程序以及可解释的人工智能方法。除了详尽的规范曲线外,它还支持严格的离样验证,并量化每个协变量的边际贡献。我们展示了其在五个模拟设计和十个涵盖经济学、社会学、心理学和医学的实证案例研究中的实用性,包括对广泛引用但有记录差异的发现的重新分析。在约6.72亿次模拟回归上进行基准测试表明,RobustiPy在提高实证研究透明度的同时,实现了最先进的计算效率。通过标准化和加速稳健性分析,RobustiPy改变了研究人员在分析多宇宙中的敏感性探究方式,为更可重复和可解释的计算科学提供了实用基础。

英文摘要

Scientific inference is often undermined by the vast but rarely explored "multiverse" of defensible modelling choices, which can generate results as variable as the phenomena under study. We introduce RobustiPy, an open-source Python library that systematizes multiverse analysis and model-uncertainty quantification at scale. RobustiPy unifies bootstrap-based inference, combinatorial specification search, model selection and averaging, joint-inference routines, and explainable AI methods within a modular, reproducible framework. Beyond exhaustive specification curves, it supports rigorous out-of-sample validation and quantifies the marginal contribution of each covariate. We demonstrate its utility across five simulation designs and ten empirical case studies spanning economics, sociology, psychology, and medicine, including a re-analysis of widely cited findings with documented discrepancies. Benchmarking on ~672 million simulated regressions shows that RobustiPy delivers state-of-the-art computational efficiency while expanding transparency in empirical research. By standardizing and accelerating robustness analysis, RobustiPy transforms how researchers interrogate sensitivity across the analytical multiverse, offering a practical foundation for more reproducible and interpretable computational science.