Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems
民主系统中的轨迹感知可靠性建模
Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova, Michael Coppedge
AI总结 本文提出基于动态因果神经自回归(DCNAR)的轨迹感知可靠性模型,用于捕捉机构网络中退化传播动态,优于传统生存模型,提升系统退化预测能力。
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复杂系统中的故障常通过渐进退化和应力在相互作用组件中的传播产生,而非孤立冲击。民主系统表现出类似动态,削弱机构可能引发相关机构结构的级联退化。传统可靠性与生存模型通常基于当前系统状态估计故障风险,但未明确捕捉退化在机构网络中的传播。本文引入基于动态因果神经自回归(DCNAR)的轨迹感知可靠性建模框架。该框架首先估计机构指标间的因果交互结构,然后建模其联合时间演变以生成系统状态的预测轨迹。故障风险定义为预测轨迹在固定时间范围内跨越预定义退化阈值的概率。利用纵向机构指标,我们比较了基于DCNAR的轨迹风险模型与离散时间危险和Cox比例危险模型。结果表明,轨迹感知建模在预测传播驱动的机构故障方面优于Cox模型。这些发现强调了对动态系统交互建模在可靠性分析和早期系统退化检测中的重要性。
Failures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. Democratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper introduces a trajectory-aware reliability modeling framework based on Dynamic Causal Neural Autoregression (DCNAR). The framework first estimates a causal interaction structure among institutional indicators and then models their joint temporal evolution to generate forward trajectories of system states. Failure risk is defined as the probability that predicted trajectories cross predefined degradation thresholds within a fixed horizon. Using longitudinal institutional indicators, we compare DCNAR-based trajectory risk models with discrete-time hazard and Cox proportional hazards models. Results show that trajectory-aware modeling consistently outperforms Cox models and improves risk prediction for several propagation-driven institutional failures. These findings highlight the importance of modeling dynamic system interactions for reliability analysis and early detection of systemic degradation.