We study multiple change point localization under bandit feedback. An unknown piecewise-constant function on a compact interval can be queried sequentially at adaptively chosen inputs, and each query returns a noisy evaluation of the function. The goal is to identify a prescribed number of discontinuities, known as change points, within a target precision $η$ and confidence level $1-δ$, while using as few samples as possible. We propose an adaptive algorithm that first detects intervals likely to contain change points and then refines their locations to precision $η$. We establish non-asymptotic upper bounds on its sample budget, together with corresponding lower bounds. Prior work shows that jump magnitudes alone determine the asymptotic sample complexity as $δ\to 0$. We reveal that this picture is incomplete beyond this regime. We demonstrate, both empirically and theoretically, that for general $δ$ and $η$, the complexity is jointly governed by the jumps and the relative positions of the change points.

The analysis of physiological time series, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), is persistently hindered by modality and frequency gaps stemming from heterogeneous recording devices. Existing foundation models typically rely on continuous latent spaces, which frequently suffer from severe modality entanglement, lack high-fidelity cross-frequency generative capacity, and impose high computational costs that prohibit edge-device deployment. In this paper, we propose Compact Latent Manifold Translation (CLMT), a highly parameter-efficient (0.09B) unified framework that bridges these gaps through a novel two-stage discrete translation paradigm. First, we introduce a Universal Tokenizer utilizing Hierarchical Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to decouple heterogeneous signals into isolated, well-structured discrete latent manifolds, effectively preventing inter-modality interference. Second, a Context-Prompted Latent Translator maps these discrete tokens across modalities by integrating static physiological priors, reframing complex signal synthesis as a pure latent sequence translation task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our 0.09B model significantly outperforms massive baselines. In cross-modal PPG-to-ECG synthesis, it resolves temporal phase drift and dramatically improves the clinical R-peak detection F1-score from 0.37 (baseline) to 0.83. Furthermore, in extreme cross-frequency super-resolution (25Hz to 100Hz), it successfully recovers high-frequency diagnostic landmarks, achieving an unprecedented Pearson correlation of 0.9956. By learning a universal discrete language for biological signals with a fraction of the computational footprint, our approach sets a new trajectory for edge-deployable, multi-modal medical foundation models.

This paper studies the convergence of the Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm (OMWU) in two player zero-sum games. Recent works have identified instances on which the last-iterate of OMWU can converge arbitrarily slowly, but understanding when and why this slow convergence occurs has remained open. In this work, we develop a new analysis framework that gives sharp, quantitative explanations for this behavior. Our analysis is based on viewing the algorithm's dual iterates as an optimistic skew-gradient descent with respect to an energy function. We prove over the dual iterates that energy is dissipative, and by establishing tight bounds on the magnitude of dissipation, our analysis quantifies the geometric bottlenecks that arise when the corresponding primal iterates are close to the simplex boundary. This further translates into a new linear last-iterate convergence rate in KL divergence on games with a unique and interior Nash equilibrium. Compared to prior work, this new rate contains a much sharper dependence on game-specific constants, and we prove this dependence is optimal. Moreover, these geometric insights further translate into new separations on uniform convergence rates for OMWU. On the one hand, we prove constant lower bounds on the uniform best-iterate convergence rate in KL divergence and total variation distance from Nash. On the other hand, we establish for the $2\times 2$ setting a new ${\widetilde O}(T^{-1/2})$ best-iterate rate in duality gap, improving substantially over prior work. Together, this shows in general that uniform convergence rate guarantees do not transfer across different measures of distance to Nash.

Recent cryptographic results establish that neural networks can be backdoored such that no efficient algorithm can distinguish them from a clean model. These guarantees, however, have been confined to stylised architectures of limited practical relevance, leaving open whether comparable undetectability extends to modern, end-to-end trained networks. We construct such an attack mechanism for state-of-the-art architectures, closely aligned to the cryptographic notion of undetectability, by identifying backdoor channels as learned latent directions, and show that the question of undetectability reduces to a hypothesis test between two unknown distributions over model parameters, which we conjecture to be intractable in practice. The consequence of this reframing is significant: if exploitable channels within a network's latent space are statistically indistinguishable from naturally learned directions, an attacker need not introduce foreign structure but can instead exploit the geometry the network already possesses. Demonstrating the approach on ResNet and Vision Transformer architectures trained on standard image classification datasets, the attack achieves both consistently high success rates with negligible clean accuracy degradation, and resists a comprehensive suite of post-training defences, none of which neutralise the backdoor without rendering the model unusable. Our results establish that cryptographic backdoors need not be artefacts requiring exotic architectures or artificial constructions, but identifiable as latent properties inherent to the geometry of learned representations.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated against a criterion from the multiple imputation (MI) literature: uncertainty should scale with the amount of missing information. We assess this criterion on SQuAD, using a controlled framework in which context availability is varied across five levels. We evaluate two answer-level uncertainty measures that can be estimated from repeated sampling: sampling-based confidence (empirical mode frequency) and response entropy. Confidence fails to reflect increasing missingness: it remains high even as accuracy collapses. Entropy, by contrast, increases with context removal, consistent with the MI analogy, and explains substantially more variance in accuracy than confidence across all evidence levels (quadratic $R^2$ gap up to 0.057). We further introduce a black-box diagnostic $ρ_R(α)$ that estimates the proportion of baseline uncertainty resolved by context level $α$, requiring only repeated sampling with and without context. These results suggest that entropy is a more responsive black-box uncertainty measure than confidence under incomplete context.

A likelihood-free transport filtering method is proposed based on the couplings between state and observation variables. By exploiting a block-triangular structure in the transport map, the analysis step of filtering is reformulated as the minimization of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between the true joint measure and its transport-based approximation. To circumvent the non-convexity in the MMD optimization, we introduce a training-free transport filter method via gradient flows, which leads to an analytic computation for the transport map that implies the steepest descent direction of the MMD. The proposed approach accurately approximates non-Gaussian filtering posteriors and avoids particle collapse. We provide a convergence analysis for the expectation of the MMD between the approximated posterior and the truth posterior. Finally, we extend the method to high-dimensional problems through domain localization. Numerical examples demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over conventional filtering methods in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios.

Recent advances in agent and multi-agent systems have shown strong performance on tool use, reasoning, and collaborative tasks. However, existing benchmarks mostly evaluate task completion in weakly coupled environments, and provide limited support for studying coordination in shared, dynamically evolving systems with hierarchy and coupled constraints. This leaves an important question underexplored: when do different coordination paradigms succeed or fail? We introduce Distributed Event-driven Scheduling Benchmark (DESBench), a benchmark for evaluating agent coordination in hierarchical event-driven scheduling. Built on a shared discrete-event driven environment in industrial scheduling, our benchmark captures multi-timescale decision making, partial observability, and dynamically coupled constraints. We define tasks and metrics that evaluate effectiveness, constraint alignment, coordination efficiency, and robustness, and focus on four representative coordination paradigms: centralized, hierarchical, heterarchical, and holonic. These paradigms correspond to distinct mechanisms of information flow, decision authority, and conflict resolution. Our controlled evaluations reveal clear coordination trade-offs: centralized coordination is robust and communication-efficient but scales poorly with difficulty; hierarchical coordination improves efficiency through decomposition but suffers from cross-level misalignment; heterarchical coordination is flexible but communication-heavy; and holonic coordination satisfies constraints well but loses global robustness. These findings demonstrate that coordination design fundamentally shapes agent system behavior in complex environments, revealing structural trade-offs that cannot be captured by outcome metrics alone and underscoring the imperative for more adaptive, principled, and dynamic coordination mechanisms in future MAS research.

Foundation models and low-rank adapters enable efficient on-device generative AI but raise risks such as intellectual property leakage and model recovery attacks. Existing defenses are often impractical because they require retraining or access to the original dataset. We propose LoREnc, a training-free framework that secures both FMs and adapters via spectral truncation and compensation. LoREnc suppresses dominant low-rank components of FM weights, compensates for the missing information in authorized adapters, and further applies orthogonal reparameterization to obscure structural fingerprints of the protected adapter. Unauthorized users produce structurally collapsed outputs, while authorized users recover exact performance. Experiments demonstrate that LoREnc provides strong protection against model recovery with under 1% computational overhead.

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on Gaussian processes, kernel machines, linear models, or linearized neural approximations, leaving a gap between theory and the nonlinear models used in practice. We develop a kernel based framework for analyzing regularized nonlinear parametric models trained on adaptively collected data. Our approach uses kernels over the parameter space to induce reproducing kernel Hilbert space structures over the corresponding model class, yielding confidence bounds for models trained with broad classes of regularized convex losses. We show how these bounds can support convergence guarantees for nonlinear acquisition and surrogate models, including randomized regularized policies that select points by maximizing a trained random model. These results provide a unified route to analyzing nonlinear parametric models in Bayesian optimization and related adaptive optimization settings.

Discrete automated processes in industrial and cyber-physical systems often exhibit a repetitive structure in which successive repetitions follow a common trajectory while differing in duration, amplitude, and fine-scale dynamics. Such \emph{approximately periodic} behavior poses a challenge for Gaussian Processes (GP) modeling: strictly periodic models suppress inter-repetition variability, while non-periodic models fail to capture the strong structural regularities required for generation. In this work, we propose a stochastic generative model for approximately periodic time series. The model is based on a GP whose posterior is modulated by a novel kernel. Our approach decouples intra-repetition structure from inter-repetition variability through a two-stage construction which yields a generative distribution with a identical mean function across repetitions, while allowing smooth variation between repetitions. The modeling choices are supported by an implementation in which realistic synthetic trajectories are generated from toy datasets.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed imaging inverse problems, from medical diagnostics to Earth observation. Yet deep neural networks can produce hallucinations, realistic-looking but incorrect details, undermining their reliability, especially when ground truth data is unavailable. We develop a theoretical framework showing that such hallucinations are not merely artifacts of particular models, but can arise from the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem itself. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for hallucinations, together with computable bounds on their magnitude that depend only on the forward model. Building on this theory, we introduce algorithms to: (1) estimate the minimum hallucination magnitude achievable by any reconstruction model for a given input; (2) assess the faithfulness of reconstructed details by a given reconstruction model. Experiments across three imaging tasks demonstrate that our approach applies broadly, including to modern generative models, and provides a principled way to quantify and evaluate AI hallucinations.

Automated detection of vulnerability-fixing commits (VFCs) is critical for timely security patch deployment, as advisory databases lag patch releases by a median of 25 days and many fixes never receive advisories. We present a comprehensive evaluation of code language model based VFC detection through a unified framework consolidating over 20 fragmented datasets spanning more than 180000 commits. Across over 180 experiments with fine-tuned models from 125 M to 14 B parameters, we find no evidence that models acquire transferable security-relevant code understanding from code changes alone. When commit messages are available, they dominate model attention, and when removed, an attribution analysis shows that enriching diffs with additional intra-procedural semantic context does not shift model attention toward the code changes. Group-stratified evaluation exposes approximately 17% performance drops compared to random splits, while temporal splits on aggregated datasets prove unreliable due to compositional shift in the underlying project distributions. At a false positive rate of 0.5% all fine-tuned code-only models miss over 93% of vulnerabilities. Larger and more diverse training data or generative approaches show preliminary improvements but do not resolve the underlying limitations. To support future research on code-centric VFC detection, we release our unified framework and evaluation suite.

Recent 3D generative models can synthesize high-quality assets, but their outputs are typically static: they lack the skeletal rigs, joint hierarchies, and skinning weights required for animation. This limits their use in games, film, simulation, virtual agents, and embodied AI, where assets must not only look plausible but also move plausibly. We introduce Rigel3D, a generative method for animation-ready 3D assets represented as rigged meshes. Unlike post-hoc auto-rigging methods that attach rigs to completed shapes, our method jointly models geometry and rig structure through coupled surface and skeleton structured latent representations. A rig-aware autoencoder decodes these representations into mesh geometry, skeleton topology, joint coordinates, and skinning weights, while a two-stage latent generative model synthesizes both surface and skeleton representations for image-conditioned generation. To support downstream animation workflows, we further introduce an open-vocabulary joint labeling module that embeds generated joints into a shared vision-language space, enabling correspondence to arbitrary retargeting templates. Experiments on large-scale rigged asset datasets demonstrate that our method generates diverse, high-quality animation-ready assets and outperforms existing rigging baselines across multiple metrics.

This paper introduces an algorithm-agnostic approach to feature-based time series clustering via amortized neural inference. By training neural networks to approximate the optimal partitioning rule from simulated data, the proposed framework reduces reliance on conventional clustering methods, such as $K$-means, $K$-medoids, or hierarchical clustering, and their associated objective functions and heuristics. Leveraging statistical features, such as autocorrelations and quantile autocorrelations, the approach learns a data-driven affinity structure from which clustering partitions can be recovered, without requiring explicit prior specification of cluster shapes or structures. In addition, one version of the method can automatically determine the number of clusters, avoiding ad-hoc selection procedures. Comprehensive empirical studies show that the proposed framework achieves competitive or superior clustering accuracy relative to traditional methods, even in challenging scenarios where competing techniques are provided with the true number of clusters. An application to financial time series of stock returns illustrates its practical utility. By reducing the need for algorithm selection and calibration, the proposed framework opens new possibilities for automated, adaptive, and data-driven clustering of temporal data across scientific and industrial domains.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have emerged as a kernelized alternative to vanilla independent sampling for generating efficient minibatches, coresets and other parsimonious representations of large-scale datasets. While theoretical foundations and promising empirical performance have been demonstrated, there are two challenges for current proposals for DPP-based coresets or minibatches. The first is the need for families of DPPs with certain key variance reduction properties, usually constructed in a continuous setting, of which there are few known examples. The second is the need for an ad-hoc construction of a discrete DPP defined on a given dataset, that inherits such variance reduction. In this work, we contribute to the programme of establishing DPPs as a subsampling toolbox for ML by advancing on these two fronts. First, we propose new DPPs on the Euclidean space based on wavelets, with provably better accuracy guarantees than the best known rates. Second, we introduce a general method to convert such continuous DPPs, which are more amenable to proving analytical statements, into discrete kernels, which are pertinent for subsampling tasks such as minibatch and coreset constructions. This conversion mechanism simultaneously preserves the desired variance decay and reveals a low-rank decomposition of the discrete kernel, which makes sampling the corresponding DPP computationally inexpensive. En route, we enlarge the class of ML tasks amenable to improvements via DPP-based minibatches and coresets to include objective functions with arbitrarily low regularity, and rate guarantees that explicitly adapt to this regularity.

Diffusion models depend on pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) for latent noise sampling. We present DiffusionHijack, a supply-chain backdoor attack that hijacks the PRNG to deterministically control generated images. A malicious PRNG, injected via compromised packages, forces pixel-perfect reproduction of attacker-chosen content (SSIM = 1.00, N = 100 trials) on Stable Diffusion v1.4, v1.5, and SDXL -- without modifying model weights. The attack is inherently undetectable by existing model auditing and content moderation mechanisms, as it operates entirely outside the neural network computation graph. The attack remains effective under stochastic sampling (eta > 0), bypasses CLIP-based safety checkers (98-100% success), and operates independently of the user's prompt. As a countermeasure, we replace the PRNG with a quantum random number generator (QRNG), which provides information-theoretic unpredictability. Across N = 100 prompt-model combinations, QRNG defense completely neutralizes the attack, reducing output similarity to random baseline levels (SSIM < 0.20 for SD 1.x models, < 0.45 for SDXL). This work exposes a previously overlooked supply-chain vulnerability and offers a hardware-level fundamental mitigation for generative AI systems.

Text-to-image (T2I) generative models are increasingly used to produce content for education, media, and public-facing communication, and are starting to be integrated into higher-impact pipelines. Since generated images tend to reinforce stereotypes, producing representational erasure via "default" depictions and shaping perceptions of who belongs in certain roles, a growing body of work has proposed metrics to quantify gender bias in T2I outputs. Yet existing evaluations remain fragmented. Metrics are often reported without a shared view of what they measure, what assumptions they entail, or how their results should be interpreted under different deployment contexts. This limits the usefulness of gender bias measurement for both technical auditing and emerging governance discussions. We propose a risk-aligned auditing framework for gender bias in T2I models composed of three constituents that connects risk categories, evaluation metrics, and harms. First, we identify risk-tiered use-case profiles aligned with the EU AI Act's risk categories to motivate why auditing expectations may vary with deployment contexts and stakeholder exposure. Second, we construct a metric catalog that consolidates gender-bias evaluation methods and organizes them in three measurement categories: gender prediction, embedding similarity, and downstream task. Third, we introduce a harm typology that maps context-dependent harm categories (e.g., representational, quality-of-service) to specific risk-tired scenarios. Finally, we introduce THUMB cards (Text-to-image Harms-informed Use-case-aligned Metrics of gender Bias) that help formulate auditing systematically by the incorporation of context, scenario and bias manifestation, harm hypotheses, and audit strategy.

We present a fully automated multi-agent framework for corporate due diligence and market analysis in venture capital. The system runs on an event-driven orchestration architecture, combining Large Language Models (LLMs) with real-time web retrieval to synthesize unstructured data into structured investment intelligence. A central technical contribution is a programmatic extraction pipeline that reverse-engineers the frontend-to-backend communication of the Greek Business Registry ($Γ$.E.MH.), querying dynamic endpoints to retrieve official financial filings that are then parsed using a layout-aware OCR extractor. A structural fallback mechanism explicitly flags data absence rather than generating unverified figures, directly targeting hallucination in financial contexts. All workflow artifacts are publicly available to support replication.

Responsibility allocation -- determining the extent to which agents are accountable for outcomes -- is a fundamental challenge in the design and analysis of multi-agent systems. In this work, we model such systems as concurrent stochastic multi-player games and introduce a notion of retrospective (backward) counterfactual responsibility, which quantifies an agent's accountability for outcomes resulting from a given strategy profile. To allocate responsibility among agents, we utilise the Shapley value and formally show that this method satisfies key desirable properties, including fairness and consistency. Building on this foundation, we propose a formal framework that supports both verification and strategic reasoning in responsibility-aware multi-agent systems. Furthermore, by adopting Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we demonstrate how to compute stable strategy profiles in which agents trade off responsibility against expected reward.

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) holds promise for combinatorial optimization but is constrained by limited qubits. While divide-and-conquer frameworks like QAOA$^{2}$ address scalability by partitioning graphs into subgraphs, existing methods suffer from two fundamental limitations: i) misalignment between heuristic partitioning metrics and quantum optimization goals, and ii) topology-blind parameter initialization that leads to optimization cold starts. To bridge these gaps, we propose Neural QAOA$^{2}$, an end-to-end differentiable framework that jointly generates graph partitions and initial parameters. By integrating a generative evaluative network (GEN), our method utilizes a differentiable quantum evaluator as a high-fidelity performance surrogate to provide direct gradient guidance, enabling the joint generator to learn the intrinsic mapping from graph topology to high-quality partition and parameter configurations. Extensive experiments on 183 QUBO, Ising, and MaxCut instances (21 to 1000 variables) demonstrate that our gradient-driven approach broadly outperforms heuristic baselines, ranking first on 101 instances. It exhibits zero-shot generalization across out-of-distribution graph topologies and scales.

In commercial web search, aligning content freshness with user intent remains challenging due to the highly varied lifespans of information. Traditional industrial approaches rely on static time-window filtering, resulting in "one-size-fits-all" rankings where content may be chronologically recent but semantically expired. To address the limitation, we present a novel Large Language Models (LLMs)-based Query-Aware Dynamic Content Expiration Prediction Framework deployed in Baidu search, reformulating timeliness as a dynamic validity inference task. Our framework extracts fine-grained temporal contexts from documents and leverages LLMs to deduce a query-specific "validity horizon"-a semantic boundary defining when information becomes obsolete based on user intent. Integrated with robust hallucination mitigation strategies to ensure reliability, our approach has been evaluated through offline and online A/B testing on live production traffic. Results demonstrate significant improvements in search freshness and user experience metrics, validating the effectiveness of LLM-driven reasoning for solving semantic expiration at an industrial scale.

LLM-powered agents can silently delete documents, leak credentials, or transfer funds on a routine user request, not because the agent was attacked, but because the skill it invoked broke its own declared safety rules. We call these specification violations: benign inputs cause a skill to breach the natural-language guardrails in its own specification, typically because the guardrail's semantics are undefined for autonomous execution, or because the implementation silently ignores the documented constraint. These violations are invisible to static analyzers, traditional fuzzers, and prompt-injection defenses alike, yet they undermine the very contract a user trusts when installing a skill. We present Sefz, a goal-directed semantic fuzzing framework that automatically discovers specification violations in agent skills. Sefz translates each guardrail into a reachability goal over an annotated execution trace, reducing violation checking to a deterministic graph query. An LLM-based mutator generates benign inputs whose traces progressively approach the violation patterns, guided by a multi-armed bandit that uses goal-proximity as its reward signal. On 402 real-world skills from the largest public agent-skill marketplace, Sefz finds specification violations in 120 (29.9%), including 26 previously unknown exploitable guardrail violations in deployed skills. Six recurring specification pitfalls explain the bulk of the failures, suggesting concrete principles for safer skill design.

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the relative pose (position and orientation) and velocity of a vehicle with respect to a moving target, where both are equipped with Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs), assuming the availability of relative position or bearing measurements. The body-target relative dynamics are formulated on $\mathbf{SE}_2(3)$ and recast into a linear time-varying (LTV) model in the ambient space $\mathbb{R}^{15}$, on which a deterministic Riccati observer is designed. We analyze the uniform observability (UO) conditions required to guarantee global exponential convergence of the estimation error in the ambient space for both measurement cases. In the case of relative position measurements, UO requires only a persistence-of-excitation condition on the target acceleration, whereas for bearing measurements, additional conditions are required. Building on this, a nonlinear complementary filter on $\mathbf{SO}(3)$ is designed to provide a smooth estimate of the orientation component of the state with almost global asymptotic stability. Finally, simulation results are provided to validate the proposed solution.

The geometry of the retinal vessel is a key biomarker of vascular diseases, yet clinical evidence remains primarily observational. Existing generative counterfactuals intervene only at the image-level disease label, failing to isolate explicit anatomical structure. To address this limitation, we propose the Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework (BTECF). By abstracting vascular networks into interconnected cubic-Bézier segments, BTECF establishes a disease-agnostic representation in which structural topology is explicitly preserved and atomically perturbable. Coupling this encoding with a diffusion-based generator enables parameter-level do-interventions on explicit geometric axes (e.g., tortuosity, caliber) while preserving background fundus textures. We validate BTECF on diabetic retinopathy, together with independent cohorts for ischemic stroke and Alzheimer's disease. Isolated counterfactual interventions produce dose-responsive shifts in classifier predictions; a matched pixel-drop control attenuates this response by an order of magnitude or more, ruling out out-of-distribution generation artifacts. By enforcing causal isolation between vessel topology and pixel-level confounders, BTECF provides a unified generative paradigm for hypothesis verification across systemic diseases. To support reproducibility, the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Closed-loop brain-computer interfaces often require both a forecast of upcoming neural population activity and a readout of the animal's behavioral state. A single Mamba forecaster, trained only on next-step spike counts at Neuropixels scale, can deliver both in one forward pass. A lightweight per-session linear head reading the model's predicted rates decodes behavior better than the same linear classifier reading the raw spike counts, under matched temporal context. We test on the Steinmetz visual-discrimination benchmark, which spans 39 sessions, roughly 27,000 neurons, and 1,994 held-out trials. Across three training seeds, Mamba's predicted rates decode mouse choice at 75.7$\pm$0.2% trial vote, roughly 2.3 times chance level, and stimulus side at 66.1$\pm$0.6%, about twice chance. Compared to a matched 500 ms-context linear decoder on the raw spike counts, Mamba wins at trial vote by 4-6 pp on response and 4-6 pp on stimulus side. A session-start calibration block of about 100-150 trials brings the readout within 1-2 pp of asymptote, and the full pipeline fits inside the 50 ms bin budget on workstation-class GPUs typical of tethered chronic Neuropixels recordings.

Neural population models, which predict the joint firing of many simultaneously recorded neurons forward in time, are typically evaluated by a single aggregate Pearson correlation $r$ between predicted and actual spike counts, a number that masks critical structure. We argue that how we evaluate spike forecasting matters as much as what we build, and introduce SpikeProphecy, the first large-scale benchmark for causal, autoregressive spike-count forecasting on real electrophysiology recordings. Our core contribution is a population metric decomposition that separates aggregate performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment. The decomposition surfaces aspects of the underlying data that an aggregate scalar collapses together. We apply the protocol to 105 Neuropixels sessions (Steinmetz 2019 + IBL Repeated Site; ~89,800 neurons) with seven architecture baselines spanning four structural families: four SSMs (three diagonal and one non-diagonal), a Transformer, an LSTM, and a spiking network. The decomposition surfaces a brain-region predictability ranking that reproduces across all seven baselines and survives ANCOVA correction for firing-statistics constraints (region $ΔR^2 = 0.018$ above the firing-statistics covariates). It also exposes a sub-Poisson evaluation floor where rigorous metrics combine with genuine biophysical constraints on regular spike trains, and yields a negative result on KL-on-output-rates distillation for ANN-to-SNN transfer in this Poisson count domain.

LLM-enabled AI workflows increasingly produce outputs through iterative generate-evaluate-revise loops. Each iteration can improve the candidate, but it also creates a release decision: when to stop and output the current result? This raises a statistical challenge because deployment-time evaluator scores are adaptively generated and repeatedly monitored, yet the likelihood models or exchangeability assumptions typically used for calibration are unavailable. We propose an always-valid release wrapper for existing generator-evaluator pipelines. The wrapper builds a hard-negative reference pool of high-scoring failures, calibrates deployment-time evaluator scores against this pool, and accumulates the resulting evidence with an e-process. This separates two roles: the reference pool turns black-box scores into conservative evidence, while the e-process provides validity under optional stopping. In theory, we show that a conservative reference pool yields finite-sample control of the probability of releasing on infeasible tasks, that is, tasks for which the given workflow is not capable of producing a reliable solution. We also characterize conditions under which the same conservative rule still achieves nontrivial release on feasible tasks. In an MBPP+ coding-agent case study, the wrapper reduces premature incorrect release relative to baseline stopping rules while still releasing on tasks for which the workflow repeatedly accumulates moderate supporting evidence.

Standalone virtual reality (VR) headsets process highly sensitive personal, professional, and health-related data, yet their susceptibility to non-contact physical side channels remains largely unexplored. Existing side-channel attacks typically require malicious software execution or physical access to peripherals, making them conspicuous and potentially patchable. This paper introduces ThermalTap, the first passive, non-contact side-channel attack that fingerprints VR applications solely from the long-wave infrared (LWIR) radiation emitted by the headset chassis. By treating a headset's thermal signature as a high-fidelity proxy for internal computational workloads, ThermalTap enables remote application inference at meter-scale distances without any device interaction. To achieve robust performance in real-world settings, the system combines a commodity thermal camera with a multi-modal sensor suite (capturing ambient temperature, humidity, and airflow) to normalize environmental noise. We evaluate ThermalTap using six applications across three commercial standalone headsets. In indoor settings, ThermalTap identifies applications with over 90% accuracy using only 10 seconds of thermal camera data. Under outdoor conditions, with longer session-level observations, several applications remain identifiable despite environmental variability, with the strongest outdoor application reaching 81% accuracy. Our findings establish thermal radiation as a fundamental and unavoidable privacy risk for immersive systems, exposing a critical security gap that bypasses current software-level protections and physical access controls.

Artificial intelligence is increasingly used to simplify complex tasks. In engineering applications of structural health monitoring (SHM), existing specialized algorithms, while effective, often face high implementation barriers, limited interoperability and complex training procedures. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes SHM-Agents, a generalist-specialist agent system that integrates the reasoning and planning abilities of large language models with the problem-solving strengths of specialized algorithms. SHM-Agents enables end-to-end execution of single and combined SHM tasks via natural language, supports deep learning pre-training to simplify deployment and allows flexible expansion through a modular design. Experiments on a long-span cable-stayed bridge show that SHM-Agents can accurately and efficiently perform diverse SHM tasks, including data anomaly diagnosis and recovery, signal processing, statistical analysis, modal identification, damage identification, finite element model updating, vehicle load modeling, response calculation, reliability assessment, fatigue estimation and bridge knowledge Q\&A.

Weak-to-strong (W2S) generalization, in which a strong model is fine-tuned on outputs of a weaker, task-specialized model, has been proposed as an approach to aligning superhuman AI systems. Existing theoretical analyses either fix the student's representations or operate in restricted settings. Whether multi-step SGD can succeed in feature learning while preserving diverse pre-trained capabilities remains open. We study W2S in the setting of reward-model learning with two-layer neural networks. The strong model has pre-trained representations organized into low-dimensional subspaces $V_k$, and is fine-tuned under the supervision of a weak model specialized on task $κ$. We prove that the strong model efficiently learns task $κ$, eliciting its pre-trained knowledge while retaining general capabilities. This establishes W2S generalization in the feature-learning regime, in the sense that the strong model acquires the target feature direction through W2S training, rather than having it given a priori. Moreover, W2S preserves pre-trained off-target features, whereas standard supervised fine-tuning causes catastrophic forgetting when off-target feature directions are correlated with the target's. Numerical experiments on synthetic data confirm our theoretical results.