Portfolio optimization is constrained by linear assumptions and insufficient integration of multi-modal information in traditional models. This paper proposes a cross-modal BERT-driven Actor-Critic framework SBCA for multi-asset portfolio optimization to address the deficiencies of existing deep reinforcement learning DRL methods in fusing price data and financial text sentiment, as well as lacking practical trading constraints. The framework adopts a cross-modal gated fusion mechanism to adaptively integrate price time-series features and text semantic features, embeds downside risk and turnover penalty constraints into the reward function, and constructs a complete empirical system for validation. Experiments on 11-year U.S. stock multi-asset datasets show that SBCA outperforms equal weight, buy-and-hold and market benchmark strategies in portfolio value, annual return, Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown. Ablation studies verify the complementary enhancement of Actor-Critic mechanism and cross-modal fusion module. Cost sensitivity analysis confirms the model's robustness under varying transaction costs. SBCA provides an effective and interpretable end-to-end solution for dynamic quantitative portfolio decision-making.

Traditional technical analysis indicators, although widely used by market participants, are often not sufficiently effective. We propose the Visibility Graphs Relative Strength Index (VGRSI), based on backward visibility relations in the price of a financial instrument. Rescaled to the 0--100 range, it can generate profitable trading signals. The performance of the indicator was evaluated using an automated trading strategy based on a 30-day optimisation window and a 7-day test window for three instruments representing different asset classes: DJI30, EUR/USD and XAU/USD over the 2024--2025 period (503 trading days). The strategy based on VGRSI signals generated a profit of USD~146,000 for DJI30, USD~69,000 for EUR/USD, and USD~125,000 for XAU/USD. This gives a total result of USD$\sim$340,000, which corresponds to an average profit of USD$\sim$676 per trading day, with a fixed investment of USD~1,000 to open a single trade. For all three assets, the strategy generated substantial profits while maintaining a moderate drawdown (10--18\% relative to a portfolio value of USD~10,000), a relatively low trading intensity (3.3--4.8 trades per day) and high Sharpe ratio values (2.55--3.6). These results indicate that VGRSI constitutes a promising technical analysis tool that goes beyond the classical trend-following approach by exploiting the geometric properties of asset price fluctuations.

Geographic constraints have long structured access to high-growth career opportunities, concentrating upward mobility within a limited set of cities and organizations. The expansion of remote work potentially alters this opportunity structure by decoupling job matching from physical proximity, yet its implications for career mobility remain unclear. Using 48 million U.S. job transitions between 2020 and 2024 linked to employer-level measures of remote eligibility, we estimate how entering remote-eligible jobs shapes career outcomes at job transitions. Workers entering remote-eligible jobs experience significantly higher wage growth and higher rates of upward seniority mobility than comparable workers entering fully on-site roles. These transitions are also associated with greater cross-metropolitan job mobility and moves toward smaller, less prestigious employers. Importantly, effects are largest among lower-income workers and those originating from regions with limited high-skill opportunity density. Together, the findings indicate that remote work relaxes geographic constraints in job matching, reshaping the distribution of upward mobility across places and workers.

While decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket have gained significant traction, their market microstructure and high-frequency pricing efficiency remain underexplored. This paper conducts a systematic empirical analysis of algorithmic arbitrage within Polymarket's NBA game markets. By reconstructing continuous market states from over 75 million limit order book snapshots across 173 games, we evaluate the frequency, duration, and profitability of both single-market and combinatorial arbitrage opportunities. Our findings demonstrate profound microstructural efficiency. Single-market anomalies are exceedingly rare, yielding only 7 executable in-game episodes that persist for a median duration of just 3.6 seconds. Combinatorial inefficiencies are more frequent, producing 290 active episodes overwhelmingly concentrated in the final minutes of live play. While combinatorial execution yields a statistically meaningful median return of 101 basis points, we find that the theoretical "Middle" jackpot is never empirically realized. Furthermore, execution is severely bottlenecked by shallow order book depth, with 76.9\% of combinatorial opportunities constrained to an average executable size of just 14.8 shares. Ultimately, while executable mispricings exist, they are structurally bounded by liquidity, confining risk-free extraction strictly to the retail scale.

We study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives used in liquidity management and clarify its relation to risk-neutral valuation and replication. While it is well known that expectations under different measures (e.g., $\mathbb{P}$ vs. $\mathbb{Q}$) can yield different undiscounted cash-flows, further inconsistencies arise when payment times are stochastic. We show that using discounting sensitivities (funding-curve hedge ratios) instead of "expected cash-flows" aligns forecasting with the self-financing replication strategy and avoids measure-mixing/aggregation issues. We then illustrate how a standard valuation model delivers pathwise funding requirements and propose a simple liquidity valuation adjustment to capture settlement lags and related timing frictions. The note provides implementation hints (American Monte Carlo with adjoint differentiation) and clarifies when "expected cash-flows" are informative and when sensitivities should be used instead.

This paper proposes a simple and parsimonious discrete-time simulation model to describe the endogenous formation and periodic collapse of financial bubbles. While existing literature has extensively explored the statistical properties of locally explosive bubble dynamics, capturing the micro-level interplay of investor herd behavior and panic selling within a unified framework remains a challenge. Our model addresses this by introducing a cubic function of market momentum to determine the balance of trading directions. This mechanism drives both trend-following behavior during the bubble phase and sudden market crashes when the momentum exceeds a critical threshold. Furthermore, inspired by the self-exciting nature of the Hawkes process, the model endogenizes``market frenzy" by linking trading frequency directly to the accumulated momentum. Simulation results demonstrate that this minimal setup successfully replicates the complex, nonlinear dynamics of bubbles, including simultaneous surges in liquidity and price, followed by dramatic crashes.

This study presents a novel, AI-driven framework for assessing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance in European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). An initial phase established expert-validated ESG baseline scores from a subset of the Flash Eurobarometer FL549 survey data. In the second phase, a scalable AI agent system, built on the n8n automation platform, applied these baselines to perform automated ESG classification and generate contextual recommendations using large language models (LLMs). The results demonstrate the AI system's high consistency with human-derived outputs, thereby supporting more effective monitoring and intervention strategies aligned with the European Green Deal.

Prior research shows that large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic extrapolation bias when forming predictions from both experimental and real-world data, and that prompt-based approaches appear limited in alleviating this bias. We propose a supervised fine-tuning (SFT) approach that uses Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to train off-the-shelf LLMs on instruction datasets constructed from rational benchmark forecasts. By intervening at the parameter level, SFT changes how LLMs map observed information into forecasts and thereby mitigates extrapolation bias. We evaluate the fine-tuned model in two settings: controlled forecasting experiments and cross-sectional stock return prediction. In both settings, fine-tuning corrects the extrapolative bias out-of-sample, establishing a low-cost and generalizable method for debiasing LLMs.

Brazil's working-time debate is no longer only a choice between keeping the 44-hour week and moving directly to 36 hours. Alternatives around 40 hours, a five-day schedule and phased transitions are also on the table. This policy note asks a simple question for that choice: how much more productive would the economy need to become for each option not to reduce output in the short run? To answer, I combine Brazilian data on hours worked, informality, firm size and sectoral composition with a model of adjustment between formal and informal employment. The main result is that a move to 40 hours requires a productivity gain of about 2 percent. A direct move to 36 hours requires a much larger jump, between 6.6 and 8.2 percent, which is high relative to Brazil's recent productivity record. Informality also rises in the 36-hour scenario, by about 1.6 to 1.9 percentage points, but the main cost comes from fewer formal hours worked. The exercise does not say whether the reform should or should not move forward; it shows that size, timing and transition instruments change the arithmetic substantially. For policymakers, the message is direct: a phased route, with a stop near 40 hours, requires a much smaller productivity target than an immediate jump to 36 hours.

This paper develops an agentic framework that employs large language models (LLMs) for grounded persuasive language generation in automated copywriting, with real estate marketing as a focal application. Our method is designed to align the generated content with user preferences while highlighting useful factual attributes. This agent consists of three key modules: (1) Grounding Module, mimicking expert human behavior to predict marketable features; (2) Personalization Module, aligning content with user preferences; (3) Marketing Module, ensuring factual accuracy and the inclusion of localized features. We conduct systematic human-subject experiments in the domain of real estate marketing, with a focus group of potential house buyers. The results demonstrate that marketing descriptions generated by our approach are preferred over those written by human experts by a clear margin while maintaining the same level of factual accuracy. Our findings suggest a promising agentic approach to automate large-scale targeted copywriting while ensuring factuality of content generation.

The advent of smart contracts has enabled the rapid rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on the Ethereum blockchain, offering substantial rewards in financial innovation and inclusivity. This growth, however, is accompanied by significant security risks such as illicit accounts engaged in fraud. Effective detection is further limited by the scarcity of labeled data and the evolving tactics of malicious accounts. To address these challenges with a robust solution for safeguarding the DeFi ecosystem, we propose $\textbf{SLEID}$, a $\textbf{S}$elf-$\textbf{L}$earning $\textbf{E}$nsemble-based $\textbf{I}$llicit account $\textbf{D}$etection framework. SLEID uses an Isolation Forest model for initial outlier detection and a self-training mechanism to iteratively generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled accounts, enhancing detection accuracy. Experiments on 6,903,860 Ethereum transactions with extensive DeFi interaction coverage demonstrate that SLEID significantly outperforms supervised and semi-supervised baselines with $\textbf{+2.56}$ percentage-point precision, comparable recall, and $\textbf{+0.90}$ percentage-point F1 -- particularly for the minority illicit class -- alongside $\textbf{+3.74}$ percentage-points higher accuracy and improvements in PR-AUC, while substantially reducing reliance on labeled data.