Regulatory and contractual constraints on individual exposures are standard in insurance and reinsurance markets, but a poorly designed constraint can distort the economic incentives of risk-averse agents. In the unconstrained problem, the classical comonotonic improvement theorem guarantees Pareto-optimal allocations that are nondecreasing in the aggregate loss. A constraint that is not stable under risk reduction can destroy this property. We show by example that Value-at-Risk caps lead to optimal allocations that are non-comonotonic in the aggregate loss. We identify componentwise convex-order solidity as a sufficient condition on the feasible set that restores the comonotonic improvement under constraints. If replacing any agent's allocation by a less risky one preserves feasibility, then every feasible allocation admits a feasible comonotonic improvement for all convex-order-consistent preferences. This criterion covers many constraints typical in risk management, but excludes Value-at-Risk caps and idiosyncratic deductibles. We illustrate the implications of our main result in a mean-variance risk-sharing application.

This paper characterises optimal incentive schemes for ESG disclosure in a continuous-time principal-agent setting. We model a risk-averse principal (e.g., a platform or standard-setter) contracting with a team of heterogeneous agents whose disclosure signals are each correlated with a traded climate risk factor. The optimal contract balances incentive provision against the variance of aggregate payouts by leveraging three instruments: own-signal loading, cross-signal loadings across agents, and hedging tilts on the traded asset. We derive closed-form linear optimal controls in a tractable linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework. When the principal is nearly risk-neutral, the contract uses the traded asset purely to hedge the specific `enforcement risk' generated by high-powered incentives. As the principal's risk aversion increases, the optimal scheme converges to a `market-neutral' regime where aggregate asset exposure is eliminated and the cross-signal structure tightens to an `identity pooling' constraint. We characterise this limit analytically as a constrained quadratic program governed by an M-matrix. In the high-risk-aversion regime, heterogeneity creates genuinely new effects absent under symmetry: the cross-section of S-tilts must change sign (unless degenerate), and an agent's own-signal diagonal can turn negative when that row is too strongly exposed to the common traded factor relative to the rest of the group. The results provide a theoretical foundation for `mixed' compensation structures in Regenerative Finance (ReFi), rationalising the use of both stable payments and volatile governance tokens to optimise risk-sharing.

Education is a major source of inequality in income and health. Polygenic indices for educational attainment (EA-PGI) capture both direct and indirect genetic influences on education, but their effects on income and health remain unclear. Using Finnish registry data on 51,056 graduates followed annually since graduation for up to 25 years, we report three findings. First, higher EA-PGI strongly predicts income growth, but only among higher educated people: tertiary-educated graduates at the 90th percentile earn EUR 45,392 (13.1 percent) higher discounted lifetime income than those at the 10th percentile. This effect is not mediated by overall health and is entirely absent for the secondary (high school)-educated workers, who do not benefit from higher EA-PGI levels. Second, EA-PGI does not predict income differences at labor market entry or the quality of the first employer, but rather higher job-to-job mobility toward higher-quality firms that drives the long-run income divergence. Third, controlling for parental EA-PGI in 12,871 parent-offspring trios reduces the discounted lifetime income gap by 71 percent, and the effect of paternal (but not maternal) EA-PGI on offspring income exceeds that of the offspring's own EA-PGI. These findings suggest that genetic factors associated with educational attainment predict income trajectories primarily through faster and more frequent changes to higher-paying employers. However, much of this association reflects indirect paternal genetic effects, consistent with enduring paternal patterns of intergenerational job and income transmission.

Malliavin calculus is a powerful and general framework for the analysis of square-integrable random variables, but it often suffers from a lack of tractability and explicit representations. To address this limitation, we focus on a subclass of random variables given by finite linear combinations of time-extended Brownian motion signatures. The class remains rich due to the universal approximation properties of signatures. Leveraging the algebraic structure of signatures, we first derive explicit formulas for the Malliavin derivative of signatures of continuous Itô processes. As a consequence, we obtain closed-form expressions for the Clark--Ocone representation, the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck semigroup and its generator, as well as the integration-by-parts formula within the class of Brownian signature variables. These results provide purely algebraic formulations of the classical operators of Malliavin calculus. As an application, we compute Greeks for general path-dependent options under signature volatility models, and numerically compare different choices of Malliavin weights.

We digitize and analyze the near-universe of National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) membership records and link them to newly digitized population and industrial censuses. Four findings emerge. First, as the party expanded, its membership came to resemble the broader population more closely in occupational, demographic, and religious terms. Second, SS members remained distinctly different: younger, more educated, and more fanatical, as proxied by membership portraits. Third, within communities, coworkers, and families, early membership generated hysteresis, with subsequent entrants drawn from the same groups. Finally, local increases in party membership are associated with subsequent deportations of Germany's Jews.

This paper develops a multilayer network approach for exploring the evolution of scientific disciplines, using the case of economics before and after the 2008 global financial crisis as a large-scale empirical testing ground. The units of analysis are journals, linked by social and intellectual relationships. The analysis covers all journals indexed in EconLit across three years (2006, 2012 and 2019). In the most recent year (2019), the dataset includes 909 journals, over 30,000 editorial board members, more than 260,000 authors, 134,000 articles, and nearly 2 million cited references. For each period, we model journals as connected in a four-layer multiplex network: the social relationships are based on shared editors (interlocking editorship) and shared authors (interlocking authorship), while the intellectual ones are based on shared references (bibliographic coupling) and textual similarity between articles. These four layers are integrated using Similarity Network Fusion to produce unified similarity networks from which journal communities are identified. Comparing the field across the three periods reveals a high degree of structural continuity. Although research topics changed after the crisis, the fundamental social and intellectual relationships among journals remained remarkably stable. A major result of the analysis is that editorial networks play the dominant role in shaping hierarchies and legitimize knowledge production within the discipline. Whether this finding holds in other scientific disciplines remains an open question for future research.

Large monetary expansions do not necessarily generate consumer-price inflation, challenging scalar views of "money supply." Here we propose that monetary function is phase-dependent: newly issued base money can occupy distinct functional compartments with different coupling to prices. Starting from an accounting framework that separates reproduction, consumption, and reservation, we operationalize a measurable order parameter, phi=RB/MB, the reserve-share fraction of the monetary base. Using Japan's monthly record (1971-2026), we identify a compositional phase transition after 2013 from a cash-dominated to a reserve-dominated regime, quantitatively captured by a Landau-type order-parameter transition. Phase-conditional local projections using unexpected (residual) base-growth shocks show that, in Japan, unexpected base expansions are absorbed primarily as reserve balances-phi rises significantly-rather than entering the consumption-goods transaction sector; consequently, the core CPI inflation response is strongly attenuated and can even reverse sign. This demonstrates that increases in monetary supply do not necessarily cause inflation: the key is the "phase" in which incremental money accumulates (reservoir versus circulation). We further define function-specific efficiencies for reservation absorption and CPI transmission and provide an operational distinction between circulation-driven and reservation-dominant inflation regimes.

We study multivariate tail-dependence compatibility for complete and partial signed tail families, treating lower-tail, upper-tail, and mixed configurations in one geometric witness representation indexed by active coordinate sets and sign patterns. For a complete signed tail family, witness generator weights w = (w_{I,sigma}) give a linear incidence parametrization and are recovered by explicit triangular inversion. Excluding the geometric scale p0, the complete case uses 3^d - 1 generator weights, matching the number of complete signed tail coefficients; for partial specifications, only selected target coefficients need be prescribed. At a fixed threshold p0 in (0, 1/2), the inversion identifies the normalized noncentral ternary cell masses of any realizing copula. Hence finite-threshold compatibility is characterized by nonnegative recovered generator weights, singleton normalization, and the residual central-mass constraint. This yields a complete Moebius-type synthesis within the witness framework. If the recovered increments are nonnegative and singleton normalization holds, then S(w) = sum(w) determines the admissible finite-scale range, and every admissible p0 gives an exact witness realization. In the canonical ray geometry, such a realization preserves the same complete signed tail family throughout 0 < p <= p0. Thus the primary object is the complete signed tail family lambda: it is realized at every admissible finite scale and can be carried along families of witness copulas with p0 decreasing to 0. Partial, noisy, or inconsistent specifications are treated through linear-feasibility and weighted-l1 recovery problems in the same parametrization. The representation separates the p0-free incidence/Moebius layer from finite-threshold realization and provides tools for realization, simulation, calibration, completion, repair, and scenario design.

Agent-based models provide a constructive approach to studying emergent dynamics in life-like systems composed of interacting, adaptive agents. Financial markets serve as a canonical example of such systems, where collective price dynamics arise from individual decision-making. In this modeling tradition, investor behavior has typically been captured by two distinct mechanisms -- learning and heterogeneous preferences -- which have been explored as separate paradigms in prior studies. However, the impact of their joint modeling on the resulting collective dynamics remains largely unexplored. We develop a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which agents endowed with heterogeneous risk aversion, time discounting, and information access learn trading strategies interactively within an artificial market. The experiment reveals that (i) learning under heterogeneous preferences drives agents to develop functionally differentiated strategies through interaction, rather than trait-specific rules, resulting in role specialization, and (ii) the interactions by the differentiated agents are essential for the emergence of realistic market dynamics such as fat-tailed price fluctuations and volatility clustering. Overall, this study demonstrates that the joint design of heterogeneous preferences and learning mechanisms enables the synthesis of an artificial market in which adaptive interactions drive the self-organization of a market ecology, providing a computational realization of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

This paper proposes an Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) to model the intricate dynamics of Limit Order Books (LOBs). Our theoretical contribution lies in relaxing traditional constraints by allowing for state disappearances -- a phenomenon frequently observed in high-frequency trading. We mathematically prove, using Karush--Kuhn--Tucker (KKT) conditions, that the maximum likelihood estimation remains separable, justifying an efficient two-step procedure. In the empirical section, we apply our model to three months of high-frequency tick data of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306). We demonstrate that ExsdHawkes uniquely reproduces the volatility signature plot's characteristic upward slope by capturing the "local super-criticality" triggered during disequilibrium states. Crucially, we identify Marketable Limit Orders (MLO) as the primary catalyst that forces the LOB into these unstable states. Comparative analysis reveals that models lacking physical constraints (e.g., standard SD-Hawkes) suffer from explosive branching ratios and fail to maintain simulation stability. Our findings suggest that physical consistency is not merely a mathematical nicety, but a prerequisite for accurately modeling macro-level volatility. By enforcing the physical geometry to `pause' the residual accumulation during inadmissible periods, ExsdHawkes uniquely maintains statistical integrity where unconstrained models succumb to structural bias.

Markets are a promising way to coordinate AI agent activity for similar reasons to those used to justify markets more broadly. In order to effectively participate in markets, agents need to have informative signals of their own ability to successfully complete a task and the cost of doing so. We propose MarketBench, a benchmark for assessing whether AI agents have these capabilities. We use a 93-task subset of SWE-bench Lite, a software engineering benchmark, with six recently released LLMs as a demonstration. These LLMs are miscalibrated on both success probability and token usage, and auctions built from these self-reports diverge from a full-information allocation. A follow-up intervention where we add information about capabilities from prior experiments to the context improves calibration, but only modestly narrows the gap to a full-information benchmark. We also document the performance of a market-based scaffolding with these LLMs. Our results point to self-assessment as a key bottleneck for market-style coordination of AI agents.

Hierarchical Risk Parity (De Pardo) and the Schur-complement generalization of Cotton are among the most widely adopted regularised portfolio construction methods, yet both are signal-blind: they solve only the minimum-variance problem and cannot accommodate an arbitrary expected-return forecast. This paper introduces three methods that incorporate alpha signals into hierarchical and regularised portfolio construction. HRP-$μ$ is a hierarchical allocator that accepts an arbitrary signal $μ$ and nests standard HRP when $γ= 0$ and $μ=\mathbf{1}$. It preserves the tree-based structure of HRP while extending it beyond the minimum-variance setting. HRP-$Σμ$ strengthens this construction by replacing inverse-variance representatives with recursive local mean-variance optima, thereby using richer within-cluster covariance information at the same $O(N^2)$ asymptotic cost. CRISP (Correlation-Regularised Iterative Shrinkage Portfolios) is an iterative solver for $P_γw = μ$ with $P_γ= (1-γ)\operatorname{diag}(Σ) + γΣ$, so that $γ$ interpolates between a diagonal portfolio rule and full Markowitz. At convergence, CRISP is Markowitz applied to a variance-preserving shrunk covariance-diagonal variances unchanged, off-diagonal correlations shrunk-with $γ$ tuned for out-of-sample Sharpe rather than covariance-estimation loss. In Monte Carlo experiments across multiple covariance regimes and estimation ratios, HRP-$μ$ and HRP-$Σμ$ both outperform plain HRP with HRP-$Σμ$ consistently improving on HRP-$μ$. CRISP at intermediate $γ$ is the dominant method in both regimes, outperforming HRP, Cotton, Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage, direct Markowitz, and the signal-aware hierarchical methods.

Generative AI acts as a disruptive technological shock to evaluative organizations. In academic peer review, it enters both sides of the market: authors use AI to polish submissions, and reviewers use it to generate plausible reports without exerting evaluative effort. We develop a three-sided equilibrium model to analyze this dual adoption and derive a counterintuitive managerial implication for journal policy. We show that when AI capability crosses a critical threshold, reviewer effort collapses discontinuously. This transition creates a welfare misalignment: authors benefit from a weakened ``rat race,'' while editors suffer from degraded signal informativeness. Characterizing the editor's optimal constrained response, we identify a strict policy reversal. Before the AI transition, editors should tighten acceptance standards to curb rent-dissipating author polishing. After the transition, conventional intuition fails: editors must loosen acceptance standards while investing in AI detection, because further tightening only amplifies dissipative polishing without improving sorting. We prove analytically that this sign reversal is a structural consequence of the reviewer effort collapse under log-concave quality distributions. Ultimately, addressing AI in evaluative systems requires treating monitoring and loosened selectivity as complementary design instruments.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) participating in multi-market electricity trading require price forecasts to optimize dispatch decisions. A widely held assumption is that forecast accuracy, measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), drives trading performance. We challenge this assumption using a hierarchical three-layer optimization system trading simultaneously on frequency containment reserve (FCR), automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR), day-ahead, and continuous intraday (XBID) markets in Germany and Switzerland over 2020-2025, with real market data from Regelleistung.net and Swissgrid. We find that rank correlation (Kendall tau), rather than MAE, is the primary predictor of intraday dispatch value: forecasts above an empirical threshold of tau approximately 0.85-0.95 capture up to 97-100% of perfect-foresight revenue, while persistence forecasts with near-zero tau capture only 33%. This threshold is stable across market regimes and volatility levels, and reflects the ordinal structure of the dispatch problem. Furthermore, under reserve market constraints, FCR capacity revenue exceeds XBID by 6.5x per MW, making capacity allocation -- not forecast accuracy -- the primary driver of total revenue. In the Swiss market, hydrological surplus anomalies are significantly associated with balancing market revenue (p = 0.0005), a mechanism absent from existing German-focused literature. These findings reframe forecast evaluation for BESS operators: the relevant question is not what the MAE is, but whether the forecast achieves tau-sufficiency.

Reliable financial reasoning requires knowing not only how to answer, but also when an answer cannot be justified. In real financial practice, problems often rely on implicit assumptions that are taken for granted rather than stated explicitly, causing problems to appear solvable while lacking enough information for a definite answer. We introduce REALFIN, a bilingual benchmark that evaluates financial reasoning by systematically removing essential premises from exam-style questions while keeping them linguistically plausible. Based on this, we evaluate models under three formulations that test answering, recognizing missing information, and rejecting unjustified options, and find consistent performance drops when key conditions are absent. General-purpose models tend to over-commit and guess, while most finance-specialized models fail to clearly identify missing premises. These results highlight a critical gap in current evaluations and show that reliable financial models must know when a question should not be answered.

The paper shows how to determine the loss on an LGD borrower's loan after default, with or without preparation of a separate model. LGD after default is estimated taking into account the average repayment period of the defaulted loan, knowledge of volumes, moments of default and repayments, the rate or other parameters in the vector of determinants. The calculation of the average repayment period for overdue loans is given in the article. A Bayesian scheme is used to estimate repayable debts, considering the percentage of repayment. A general recovery model was used for the LGD segment recovery process. Only this type of model allows you to set LGD less than or equal to 1, which is required for further estimates.

Despite data's central role in AI production, it remains the least understood input. As AI labs exhaust public data and turn to proprietary sources, with deals reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, research across computer science, economics, law, and policy has fragmented. We establish data economics as a coherent field through three contributions. First, we characterize data's distinctive properties -- nonrivalry, context dependence, and emergent rivalry through contamination -- and trace historical precedents for market formation in commodities such as oil and grain. Second, we present systematic documentation of AI training data deals from 2020 to 2025, revealing persistent market fragmentation, five distinct pricing mechanisms (from per-unit licensing to commissioning), and that most deals exclude original creators from compensation. Third, we propose a formal hierarchy of exchangeable data units (token, record, dataset, corpus, stream) and argue for data's explicit representation in production functions. Building on these foundations, we outline four open research problems foundational to data economics: measuring context-dependent value, balancing governance with privacy, estimating data's contribution to production, and designing mechanisms for heterogeneous, compositional goods.

We show that since the mid-1990s, the trade-promoting effects of tariff liberalization have been increasingly offset by deteriorating geopolitical alignment, slowing trade globalization after 2007. To quantify this barrier, we use large language models to compile 833,485 geopolitical events across 193 countries, 1950--2024, and construct a bilateral geopolitical alignment score. Using local projections, we estimate that a one-standard-deviation permanent improvement in alignment raises bilateral trade by 22 percent in the long run. In an Armington framework, tariff reductions raised 2021 global trade by about 7.5 percent, while geopolitical deterioration reduced it by about 5.3 percent, with uneven welfare effects.

This paper analyzes a model in which an outcome equals a frontier function of inputs minus a nonnegative unobserved deviation. The inputs may be endogenous (statistically dependent on the deviation). If zero lies in the support of the deviation given the inputs -- an assumption we term assignment at the frontier -- then the frontier is identified by the supremum of the outcome given those inputs, obviating the need for instruments. We then consider estimation with random error that is mean-independent of the inputs. Motivated by the assignment at the frontier assumption, we regularize estimation by requiring the fitted distribution of the deviation to maintain a minimum probability mass in a neighborhood of zero. Finally, we derive a lower bound on mean deviation, using only variance and skewness, that is robust to scarcity of data near the frontier. We apply our methods to estimate a frontier production function and mean inefficiency.

This paper examines how Canadian firms balance the benefits of technology adoption against the rising risk of cyber security breaches. We merge data from the 2021 Canadian Survey of Digital Technology and Internet Use and the 2021 Canadian Survey of Cyber Security and Cybercrime to investigate the trade-off firms face when pursuing digitalization to enhance productivity and efficiency, balanced against the potential increase in cyber security risk. The analysis explores the extent of digital technology adoption, differences across industries, the subsequent associations with efficiency, and associated cyber security vulnerabilities. We build aggregate variables, such as the Business Digital Usage Score and a cyber security incidence variable to quantify each firm's digital engagement and cyber security risk. A survey-weight-adjusted Lasso estimator is employed, and a debiasing method for high-dimensional logit models is introduced to identify the predictors of technological efficiency and cyber risk. The analysis reveals a digital divide linked to firm size, industry, and workforce composition. While rapid expansion of tools such as cloud services or artificial intelligence can raise efficiency, it simultaneously heightens exposure to cyber threats, particularly among larger enterprises.

We test a regime-conditional functional-form restriction on aggregate risk-exposure dynamics implied by VaR-constrained intermediary models: exposures contract multiplicatively when capital constraints bind and grow additively (level-independent) when slack. The contraction half follows from binding VaR constraints (Brunnermeier and Pedersen 2009; Adrian and Shin 2010; He and Krishnamurthy 2013). The additive-rebuild prediction is derived under constant-rate capital replenishment; we test the joint restriction on FINRA monthly margin debt (1997-2026). Two findings. First, regime-interacted regression of detrended margin growth on lagged level (T=350 months) yields calm slope -0.040 (p=0.082, additive) and stress slope -0.205 (p<0.001, multiplicative); Wald test on regime x level interaction rejects equal dependence (p=0.0016). Second, the restriction implies drawdown-recovery duration ratio increases with crash depth. On 73 S&P 500 episodes (1950-2026), Cox model gives depth coefficient -13.75 (p<10^{-7}): 75% lower recovery hazard per 10pp deeper drawdown. Continuous-depth regression yields beta=1.22 (p=0.047); beta=1.59 (p<0.001) excluding 1980-82 Volcker. Median duration ratio for crashes >30% is 3.1x; replicates across eight other equity indices. Calibrated Heston, Markov-switching, and block bootstrap nulls match price-level duration asymmetry but lack an exposure state variable, so cannot speak to the regime-conditional flip on direct exposures. We do not claim the exposure test identifies the intermediary mechanism: FINRA margin debt is a noisy proxy. We claim only that the regime-conditional functional form is a sharper target than return-level moments alone, and confirming it on margin debt is consistent with -- not proof of -- the constrained-intermediary mechanism. A companion test on CFTC weekly speculative positioning is left for future work (Sections 5.2 and F).

We propose a Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence directly from observed joint success frequencies across founder, geography, and market attributes. Holding marginal deal success probabilities fixed, deal-level correlation preserves expected portfolio outcomes but shifts the portfolio distribution toward heavier right tails and higher kurtosis. In portfolio simulations, correlation reduces the probability of modest success counts while sharply amplifying extreme upside outcomes, especially in structurally concentrated portfolios. Our findings suggest that extreme venture capital outcomes may partly reflect correlation-induced tail amplification rather than solely higher average deal quality, with potential implications for portfolio construction and risk management. We note that the observed dataset reflects selected deals with observable outcomes, which inflates apparent success rates relative to the true population base rate; however, the core finding that correlation reshapes the distributional shape while leaving the mean unchanged is structurally robust to the level of marginal success probabilities.

Firms are deploying more capable AI systems, but organizational controls often have not kept pace. These systems can generate greater productivity gains, but high-value uses require broader authority exposure -- data access, workflow integration, and delegated authority -- when governance controls have not yet decoupled capability from authority exposure. We develop an analytical model in which a firm jointly chooses AI deployment and cybersecurity investment under this governance-capability gap. The central result shows a deployment paradox: in high-loss environments, better AI can lead a firm to deploy less when capability is deployed through broader authority exposure under weak governance. Optimal deployment also falls below the no-risk benchmark, and this shortfall widens with breach-loss magnitude and with the authority exposure attached to more capable systems. Governance investment that reduces breach-loss magnitude shrinks the paradox region itself, while breach externalities expand the range of environments in which deployment is socially constrained. Governance maturity is therefore not merely a constraint on AI adoption. It is a condition that shapes whether capability improvements translate into productive deployment.

We derive equations of motion for capital deepening in a competitive economy directly from accounting identities, without assuming a production function. A profit imperative $η^* \equiv (w/κ+ 1/τ)/(1-f_p)$ sets the minimum viable capital productivity, where $η= Y/K$ [yr$^{-1}$] is capital productivity, $κ= K/L$ is capital per worker, $w$ is the wage rate, $τ$ is the capital lifetime, and $f_p$ is the production tax share. Four coupled relaxation equations govern $κ$, $η$, the frontier productivity $η_{\rm new}$ of new investment, and the labor share $q \equiv w/y$, with the sandwich constraint $η^* \leq η_{\rm new} \leq η$ maintained as an exact invariant. The frontier equation separates two physically distinct channels: a structural cheapening channel ($μ$, always active, drives $η_{\rm new}$ downward) and a productivity channel ($ϕ$, historically zero). Calibration against BEA 2-digit NAICS sector data (1998--2023) confirms $ϕ= 0$ for all identifiable sectors over 25 years; the 75-year postwar record extends this finding across four capital lifetimes. A step $ϕ= 0.01$\,yr$^{-1}$ -- a 1\%/yr improvement in new-capital productivity, modest but historically unprecedented -- nearly doubles the aggregate growth rate within one capital lifetime, a falsifiable prediction with a precise observable signature: upward-curving $η(t)$ in BEA sector data. Firms near the zero-profit threshold have a cash martingale, predicting establishment exit rate $\sim t^{-1/2}$; convolved with the Zipf firm-size distribution~\cite{WP}, this yields firm exit rate $\sim t^{-1/2}\!\log t$ with apparent exponent $b = 0.295 \pm 0.03$, confirmed against BDS data with no free parameters.

The distribution of income and wealth in developed economies exhibits a robust two-class structure: an exponential (Boltzmann--Gibbs) bulk covering $\sim\!97\%$ of the population, and a power-law (Pareto) tail in the upper $\sim\!3\%$. We derive this structure from first principles via an explicit mechanistic chain: Gibrat's law for firm growth implies a Zipf firm-size distribution; maximum entropy applied to within-firm wages, combined with mixture aggregation across firms, yields a Boltzmann--Gibbs income distribution with temperature $T_y$ for employees; additive-noise wealth dynamics with a reflecting wall at zero produce a Boltzmann--Gibbs employee wealth distribution with temperature $T_w$. For firm owners, multiplicative capital returns produce a Pareto wealth tail with exponent $α_w = 1/θ$, where $θ$ encodes how total returns scale with firm size. The empirical value $α_w \approx 1.30$ \cite{Yakovenko2009} is reproduced with no tuned parameters from the observed firm value scaling $V = V_0(s/s_0)^{0.77}$~\cite{Axtell2001}, and simultaneously yields the first quantitative estimate of the returns-per-employee size exponent: $ζ= θ- 1 \approx -0.23$. For empirical values $ν\approx 0.3$, $c \approx 0.81$, $k \approx 0.15$ (BEA long-run savings rate $\approx 5\%$), the model gives $T_w/T_y \approx 1.7\,\text{yr}$, i.e.\ lower-class households hold roughly 1--2 years of income as wealth, with the precise ratio depending on savings and tax rates and testable cross-country. As a parameter-free empirical test, firms near zero profit have a cash martingale whose first-passage time gives establishment exit rate $\sim t^{-1/2}$; convolving with the Zipf firm-size distribution yields firm-level exit rate $\sim t^{-1/2}\!\log t$, with apparent exponent $b = 0.295 \pm 0.03$, confirmed against BDS firm-age data with no free parameters.

We demonstrate that machine learning methods provide a powerful framework for modelling conditional asymmetric risk. Using a large cross-section of US stocks and a comprehensive set of firm characteristics, we show that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample performance across a wide range of asymmetric beta measures and forecasting horizons. Trading frictions, followed by characteristics related to intangibles, momentum and growth, emerge as the most important drivers of future risk dynamics. Reconstructing CAPM beta from forecasts of asymmetric beta components indicates that a more granular decomposition of systematic risk yields a more accurate representation of market beta. We also find that incorporating conditional beta forecasts into discounted cash flow models that account for the term structure of betas enhances equity valuation accuracy. Finally, we show that the statistical outperformance of conditional betas translates into economically significant benefits for market-neutral portfolio investors.

We evaluate subsidy mechanisms in the FCC's Rural Health Care program using administrative data covering the full population of participants. The original price-cap mechanism removes cost-containment incentives for health care providers. An ad valorem mechanism introduced in 2014 addresses this flaw by making providers bear 35% of costs. However, allowing consortium applications creates a new distortion: cross-subsidization from eligible to ineligible members. We develop theoretical models predicting these effects and estimate treatment effects using an extension of the two-way fixed effects framework with continuous treatments. We find that the ad valorem mechanism substantially reduces program spending relative to the price cap, while the consortium option significantly inflates it. Enforcement records and an inverted U-shaped relationship between cross-subsidization intensity and ineligible member share corroborate the findings.

This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent market model calibrated using high-frequency microstructural moments. AI agents are modeled through a two-layer decision architecture consisting of a nonlinear representation layer and an adaptive linear readout layer. The representation layer maps raw market states into high-dimensional feature vectors, while the readout layer generates return forecasts that feed into a risk-controlled trading rule. This representation-based microfoundation separates two objects that are often conflated in the literature: representation homogeneity (the degree to which agents encode market states into similar feature spaces) and forecast overlap (the degree to which agents produce similar return predictions). We show theoretically that these two concepts are related but not equivalent, and that representation homogeneity can compress the effective space of forecast disagreement under stress even when predictions appear diverse in normal times. Through controlled factorial experiments that vary representation homogeneity while conditioning on alternative risk-aversion and learning-rate distributions, we hypothesize that increasing representation similarity amplifies synchronization in beliefs and positions, leading to volatility clustering, liquidity stress, and elevated tail risk. Our structural mechanisms suggest that low perceived volatility regimes can endogenously accumulate hidden leverage through position stickiness, which subsequently collapses when shocks trigger synchronized deleveraging. The results provide a structural foundation for macroprudential policies aimed at monitoring and preserving diversity in how AI systems represent and process market information.

It is a challenging task to forecast equity prices in fast moving financial markets as this becomes even more difficult when the predictive signal is based on non-homogeneous information channels. The classical statistical methods, especially the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, limit their analytical ability with the linear assumptions that prevent the modeling of complex temporal dynamics. In contrast, complex neural networks, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, are also skilled at capturing sequential interaction effects; they however tend to collapse in the face of abrupt shifts in volatility and changing distributions. In this paper we introduce a context-sensitive adversarial learning model to predict equity prices in this work, which is synthesized distribution-based generative modelling with sentiment-based auxiliary information obtained through Natural Language Processing (NLP). The architecture uses adversarial training to model future price movements and incorporates contextual sentiment features derived using financial textual data. Through a collective utilization of quantitative market indicators along with the additional contextual cues, the framework hopes to enhance the reliability of forecasts during the periods of increased volatility and regime change. Empirical evaluation of a sample of U.S. equities testifies that the presented approach outperforms the traditional ARIMA and LSTM baselines in a range of measures of error. These findings imply that context-sensitive adversarial paradigm is an effective instrument of enhancing stock price prediction effectiveness in complex financial environments characterized by uncertainty and structural changes.

Text-based financial networks are increasingly used to study cross-stock return predictability. A common approach constructs links from similarities in firms' disclosure embeddings, but such networks often contain spurious edges because textual proximity does not necessarily imply economic connection. We propose a two-stage framework that first builds a sparse candidate graph from 10-K embeddings and then uses a large language model to classify and filter candidate edges according to their economic relations. The refined graph is used to aggregate pair-level mean-reversion signals into stock-level trading signals with relation-aware and distance-based weights. In a backtest on S&P 500 constituents from 2011 to 2019, LLM-based edge filtering improves the long-short Sharpe ratio from 0.742 to 0.820 and reduces maximum drawdown from $-$10.47% to $-$7.85%. These results suggest that LLM-based reasoning can improve the economic fidelity of text-derived financial networks and strengthen cross-stock predictability.