Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for text generation tasks from everyday use to high-stakes enterprise and government applications, including simulated interviews with asylum seekers. While many works highlight the new potential applications of LLMs, there are risks of LLMs encoding and perpetuating harmful biases about non-dominant communities across the globe. To better evaluate and mitigate such harms, more research examining how LLMs portray diverse individuals is needed. In this work, we study how national origin identities are portrayed by widely-adopted LLMs in response to open-ended narrative generation prompts. Our findings demonstrate the presence of persistent representational harms by national origin, including harmful stereotypes, erasure, and one-dimensional portrayals of Global Majority identities. Minoritized national identities are simultaneously underrepresented in power-neutral stories and overrepresented in subordinated character portrayals, which are over fifty times more likely to appear than dominant portrayals. The degree of harm is amplified when US nationality cues (e.g., ``American'') are present in input prompts. Notably, we find that the harms we identify cannot be explained away via sycophancy, as US-centric biases persist even when replacing US nationality cues with non-US national identities in the prompts. Based on our findings, we call for further exploration of cultural harms in LLMs through methodologies that center Global Majority perspectives and challenge the uncritical adoption of US-based LLMs for the classification, surveillance, and misrepresentation of the majority of our planet.

Social interactions dominate our perceptions of the world and shape our daily behavior by attaching social meaning to acts as simple and spontaneous as gestures, facial expressions, voice, and speech. People mimic and otherwise respond to each other's postures, facial expressions, mannerisms, and other verbal and nonverbal behavior, and form appraisals or evaluations in the process. Yet, no publicly-available dataset includes multimodal recordings and self-report measures of multiple persons in social interaction. Dyadic recordings and annotation are lacking. We present a new data corpus of multimodal dyadic interaction (45 dyads, 90 persons) that includes synchronized multi-modality behavior (2D face video, 3D face geometry, thermal spectrum dynamics, voice and speech behavior, physiology (PPG, EDA, heart-rate, blood pressure, and respiration), and self-reported affect of all participants in a communicative interaction scenario. Two types of dyads are included: persons with shared past history and strangers. Annotations include social signals, agreement, disagreement, and neutral stance. With a potent emotion induction, these multimodal data will enable novel modeling of multimodal interpersonal behavior. We present extensive experiments to evaluate multimodal dyadic communication of dyads with and without interpersonal history, and their affect. This new database will make multimodal modeling of social interaction never possible before. The dataset includes 20TB of multimodal data to share with the research community.

We investigate whether neural models trained exclusively on modern morphological data can recover cross-lingual lexical structure consistent with historical reconstruction. Using BantuMorph v7, a transformer over Bantu morphological paradigms, we analyze 14 Eastern and Southern Bantu languages, extract encoder embeddings for their noun and verb lemmas, and identify 728 noun and 1,525 verb cognate candidates shared across 5+ languages. Evaluating these candidates against established historical resources-the Bantu Lexical Reconstructions database (BLR3; 4,786 reconstructed Proto-Bantu forms) and the ASJP basic vocabulary-we confirm 10 of the top 11 noun candidates (90.9%) align with previously reconstructed Proto-Bantu forms, including *-ntU 'person' (8 languages), *gombe 'cow' (9 languages), and *mUn (9 languages). Extending to verbs, 12 verb cognates align with reconstructed Proto-Bantu roots, including *-bon- 'see' and *-jIm- 'stand', each attested across wide geographic ranges. Cross-model validation using an independent translation model (NLLB-600M) confirms these patterns: both models recover cognate clusters and phylogenetic groupings consistent with established Guthrie-zone classifications (p < 0.01). Cross-lingual noun class analysis reveals that all 13 productive classes maintain >0.83 cosine similarity across languages (within-class > between-class, p < 10^-9). Our dataset is restricted to Eastern and Southern Bantu, so we interpret these results as recovering shared Bantu lexical structure consistent with Proto-Bantu rather than definitively distinguishing Proto-Bantu retentions from later regional innovations.

Imitation learning is a well-established approach for machine-learning-based control. However, its applicability depends on having access to demonstrations, which are often expensive to collect and/or suboptimal for solving the task. In this work, we present GCImOpt, an approach to learn efficient goal-conditioned policies by training on datasets generated by trajectory optimization. Our approach for dataset generation is computationally efficient, can generate thousands of optimal trajectories in minutes on a laptop computer, and produces high-quality demonstrations. Further, by means of a data augmentation scheme that treats intermediate states as goals, we are able to increase the training dataset size by an order of magnitude. Using our generated datasets, we train goal-conditioned neural network policies that can control the system towards arbitrary goals. To demonstrate the generality of our approach, we generate datasets and then train policies for various control tasks, namely cart-pole stabilization, planar and three-dimensional quadcopter stabilization, and point reaching using a 6-DoF robot arm. We show that our trained policies can achieve high success rates and near-optimal control profiles, all while being small (less than 80,000 neural network parameters) and fast enough (up to more than 6,000 times faster than a trajectory optimization solver) that they could be deployed onboard resource-constrained controllers. We provide videos, code, datasets and pre-trained policies under a free software license; see our project website https://jongoiko.github.io/gcimopt/.

We present a method for discovering morphological features in low-resource Bantu languages by combining cross-lingual transfer learning with unsupervised clustering. Applied to Giriama (nyf), a language with only 91 labeled paradigms, our pipeline discovers noun class assignments for 2,455 words and identifies two previously undocumented morphological patterns: an a- prefix variant for Class 2 (vowel coalescence - the merger of two adjacent vowels - of wa-, 95.1% consistency) and a contracted k'- prefix (98.5% consistency). External validation on 444 known Giriama verb paradigms confirms 78.2% lemmatization accuracy, while a v3 corpus expansion to 19,624 words (9,014 unique lemmas) achieves 97.3% segmentation and 86.7% lemmatization rates across all major word classes. Our ensemble of transfer learning from Swahili and unsupervised clustering, combined via weighted voting, exploits complementary strengths: transfer excels at cognate detection (leveraging ~60% vocabulary overlap) while clustering discovers language-specific innovations invisible to transfer. We release all code and discovered lexicons to support morphological documentation for low-resource Bantu languages.

Parallel trajectory optimization via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) has emerged as a scalable approach to long-horizon motion planning. However, existing frameworks typically decompose the problem into parallel subproblems based on a predefined fixed structure. Such structural rigidity often causes optimization stagnation in highly constrained regions, where a few lagging subproblems delay global convergence. A natural remedy is to adaptively re-split these stagnating segments online. Yet, deciding when, where, and how to split exceeds the capability of rule-based heuristics. To this end, we propose ATRS, a novel framework that embeds a shared Deep Reinforcement Learning policy into the parallel ADMM loop. We formulate this adaptive adjustment as a Multi-Agent Shared-Policy Markov Decision Process, where all trajectory segments act as homogeneous agents and share a unified neural policy network. This parameter-sharing architecture endows the system with size invariance, enabling it to handle dynamically changing segment counts during re-splitting and generalize to arbitrary trajectory lengths. Furthermore, our formulation inherently supports zero-shot generalization to unseen environments, as our network relies solely on the internal states of the numerical solver rather than on the geometric features of the environment. To ensure solver stability, a Confidence-Based Election mechanism selects only the most stagnating segment for re-splitting at each step. Extensive simulations demonstrate that ATRS accelerates convergence, reducing the number of iterations by up to 26.0% and the computation time by up to 19.1%. Real-world experiments further confirm its applicability to both large-scale offline global planning and real-time onboard replanning within 35 ms per cycle, with no sim-to-real degradation.

Internet photo collections exhibit an extremely long-tailed distribution: a few famous landmarks are densely photographed and easily reconstructed in 3D, while most real-world sites are represented with sparse, noisy, uneven imagery beyond the capabilities of both classical and learned 3D methods. We believe that tackling this long-tail regime represents one of the next frontiers for 3D foundation models. Although reliable ground-truth 3D supervision from sparse scenes is challenging to acquire, we observe that it can be effectively simulated by sampling sparse subsets from well-reconstructed Internet landmarks. To this end, we introduce MegaDepth-X, a large dataset of 3D reconstructions with clean, dense depth, together with a strategy for sampling sets of training images that mimic camera distributions in long-tail scenes. Finetuning 3D foundation models with these components yields robust reconstructions under extreme sparsity, and also enables more reliable reconstruction in symmetric and repetitive scenes, while preserving generalization to standard, dense 3D benchmark datasets.

Understanding and predicting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases remains a major challenge in medical AI, with significant implications for early diagnosis, disease monitoring, and treatment planning. However, most available longitudinal neuroimaging datasets are temporally sparse with a few follow-up scans per subject. This scarcity of temporal data limits our ability to model and accurately capture the continuous anatomical changes related to disease progression in individual subjects. To address this problem, we propose a novel 4D (3DxT) diffusion-based generative framework that effectively models and synthesizes longitudinal brain anatomy over time, conditioned on available clinical variables such as health status, age, sex, and other relevant factors. Moreover, while most current approaches focus on manipulating image intensity or texture, our method explicitly learns the data distribution of topology-preserving spatiotemporal deformations to effectively capture the geometric changes of brain structures over time. This design enables the realistic generation of future anatomical states and the reconstruction of anatomically consistent disease trajectories, providing a more faithful representation of longitudinal brain changes. We validate our model through both synthetic sequence generation and downstream longitudinal disease classification, as well as brain segmentation. Experiments on two large-scale longitudinal neuroimage datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating anatomically accurate, temporally consistent, and clinically meaningful brain trajectories. Our code is available on Github.

Selecting a small, high-quality subset from a large corpus for fine-tuning is increasingly important as corpora grow to tens of millions of datapoints, making full fine-tuning expensive and often unnecessary. We propose CRAFT (Clustered Regression for Adaptive Filtering of Training data), a vectorization-agnostic selection method for training sequence-to-sequence models. CRAFT decomposes the joint source-target distribution and performs a two-stage selection: (i) match the validation source distribution through proportional budget allocation across k-means clusters, and (ii) within each source cluster, select training pairs whose target embeddings minimize a conditional expected distance derived from the validation target distribution. We prove that proportional cluster allocation bounds the continuous KL divergence between selected and validation distributions, with the residual controlled by cluster diameters. We evaluate CRAFT on English-Hindi translation by selecting training data from 33 million NLLB sentence pairs and fine-tuning mBART via LoRA. CRAFT achieves 43.34 BLEU, outperforming TSDS (41.21) by 2.13 points on the same candidate pool and encoder while completing selection over 40 times faster. With TF-IDF vectorization, the entire pipeline completes in under one minute on CPU. TAROT achieves 45.61 BLEU, but CRAFT completes selection in 26.86 seconds versus TAROT's 75.6 seconds, a 2.8 time speedup.

A common approach to question answering with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is to concatenate documents into a single context and pass it to a language model to generate an answer. While simple, this strategy can obscure the contribution of individual documents, making attribution difficult and contributing to the ``lost-in-the-middle'' effect, where relevant information in long contexts is overlooked. Concatenation also scales poorly: computational cost grows quadratically with context length, a problem that becomes especially severe when the context includes visual data, as in visual question answering. Attempts to mitigate these issues by limiting context length can further restrict performance by preventing models from benefiting from the improved recall offered by deeper retrieval. We propose Bayesian Ensemble Retrieval-Augmented Generation (BERAG), along with Bayesian Ensemble Fine-Tuning (BEFT), as a RAG framework in which language models are conditioned on individual retrieved documents rather than a single combined context. BERAG treats document posterior probabilities as ensemble weights and updates them token by token using Bayes' rule during generation. This approach enables probabilistic re-ranking, parallel memory usage, and clear attribution of document contribution, making it well-suited for large document collections. We evaluate BERAG and BEFT primarily on knowledge-based visual question answering tasks, where models must reason over long, imperfect retrieval lists. The results show substantial improvements over standard RAG, including strong gains on Document Visual Question Answering and multimodal needle-in-a-haystack benchmarks. We also demonstrate that BERAG mitigates the ``lost-in-the-middle'' effect. The document posterior can be used to detect insufficient grounding and trigger deflection, while document pruning enables faster decoding than standard RAG.

Batch processes are inherently transient and typically nonlinear, motivating nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). However, adopting NMPC is hindered by the cost and unavailability of dynamic models. Thus, we propose to use Gaussian Processes (GP) in a model-learning NMPC scheme (GP-MLMPC) for batch processes. We initialize the GP-MLMPC using data from a single initial trajectory, e.g., from a PI controller. We iteratively apply the NMPC embedded with GPs to run batches and update the GP with new observations from each iteration, thereby achieving batch-wise improvements. Using uncertainty quantification from the GPs, we formulate chance constraints to enforce safe operation to the required confidence levels. We demonstrate our approach in \textit{silico} on a semi-batch polymerization reactor for tracking and economic objectives over durations of two hours, and the reactor temperature is constrained in a range of $\pm2^\circ C$ around its setpoint. After only four batch iterations, tracking error from the GP-MLMPC scheme converged to a reduction of $83\%$, compared to the initial trajectory. Furthermore, under an economic objective, the GP-MLMPC resulted in a 17-fold increase in final product mass by iteration 8, compared to the initial trajectory. In both cases, the resulting GP-MLMPC performance is on par with the full-model NMPC, which shows that the optimal controller can be learned by the approach. By collecting samples around the optimal trajectory, the GP-MLMPC remains sample-efficient across iterations and achieves quick convergence. Thus, the proposed GP-MLMPC scheme presents a promising data-efficient approach for the control of nonlinear batch processes without mechanistic knowledge.

Shapley values are a cornerstone of explainable AI, yet their proliferation into competing formulations has created a fragmented landscape with little consensus on practical deployment. While theoretical differences are well-documented, evaluation remains reliant on quantitative proxies whose alignment with human utility is unverified. In this work, we use a unified amortized framework to isolate semantic differences between eight Shapley variants under the low-latency constraints of operational risk workflows. We conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation across four risk datasets and a realistic fraud-detection environment involving professional analysts and 3,735 case reviews. Our results reveal a fundamental misalignment: standard quantitative metrics, such as sparsity and faithfulness, are decoupled from human-perceived clarity and decision utility. Furthermore, while no formulation improved objective analyst performance, explanations consistently increased decision confidence, signaling a critical risk of automation bias in high-stakes settings. These findings suggest that current evaluation proxies are insufficient for predicting downstream human impact, and we provide evidence-based guidance for selecting formulations and metrics in operational decision systems.

Large token-indexed lookup tables provide a compute-decoupled scaling path, but their practical gains are often limited by poor parameter efficiency and rapid memory growth. We attribute these limitations to Zipfian under-training of the long tail, heterogeneous demand across layers, and "slot collapse" that produces redundant embeddings. To address this, we propose X-GRAM, a frequency-aware dynamic token-injection framework. X-GRAM employs hybrid hashing and alias mixing to compress the tail while preserving head capacity, and refines retrieved vectors via normalized SwiGLU ShortConv to extract diverse local n-gram features. These signals are integrated into attention value streams and inter-layer residuals using depth-aware gating, effectively aligning static memory with dynamic context. This design introduces a memory-centric scaling axis that decouples model capacity from FLOPs. Extensive evaluations at the 0.73B and 1.15B scales show that X-GRAM improves average accuracy by as much as 4.4 points over the vanilla backbone and 3.2 points over strong retrieval baselines, while using substantially smaller tables in the 50% configuration. Overall, by decoupling capacity from compute through efficient memory management, X-GRAM offers a scalable and practical paradigm for future memory-augmented architectures. Code aviliable in https://github.com/Longyichen/X-gram.

Autonomous GUI agents face two fundamental challenges: early stopping, where agents prematurely declare success without verifiable evidence, and repetitive loops, where agents cycle through the same failing actions without recovery. We present VLAA-GUI, a modular GUI agentic framework built around three integrated components that guide the system on when to Stop, Recover, and Search. First, a mandatory Completeness Verifier enforces UI-observable success criteria and verification at every finish step -- with an agent-level verifier that cross-examines completion claims with decision rules, rejecting those lacking direct visual evidence. Second, a mandatory Loop Breaker provides multi-tier filtering: switching interaction mode after repeated failures, forcing strategy changes after persistent screen-state recurrence, and binding reflection signals to strategy shifts. Third, an on-demand Search Agent searches online for unfamiliar workflows by directly querying a capable LLM with search ability, returning results as plain text. We additionally integrate a Coding Agent for code-intensive actions and a Grounding Agent for precise action grounding, both invoked on demand when required. We evaluate VLAA-GUI across five top-tier backbones, including Opus 4.5, 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, on two benchmarks with Linux and Windows tasks, achieving top performance on both (77.5% on OSWorld and 61.0% on WindowsAgentArena). Notably, three of the five backbones surpass human performance (72.4%) on OSWorld in a single pass. Ablation studies show that all three proposed components consistently improve a strong backbone, while a weaker backbone benefits more from these tools when the step budget is sufficient. Further analysis also shows that the Loop Breaker nearly halves wasted steps for loop-prone models.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have opened new avenues for robot manipulation, yet existing methods exhibit limited efficiency and a lack of high-level knowledge and spatial awareness. To address these challenges, we propose PokeVLA, a lightweight yet powerful foundation model for embodied manipulation that effectively infuses vision-language understanding into action learning. Our framework introduces a two-stage training paradigm: first, we pre-train a compact vision-language model (PokeVLM) on a curated multimodal dataset of 2.4M samples encompassing spatial grounding, affordance, and embodied reasoning tasks; second, we inject manipulation-relevant representations into the action space through multi-view goal-aware semantics learning, geometry alignment, and a novel action expert. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on the LIBERO-Plus benchmark and in real-world deployment, outperforming comparable baselines in success rate and robustness under diverse perturbations. To foster reproducibility and community progress, we will open-source our code, model weights, and the scripts for the curated pre-training dataset. Project page: https://getterupper.github.io/PokeVLA

Deep learning surrogates for CFD flow-field prediction often rely on large, complex models, which can be slow and fragile when data are noisy or incomplete. We introduce FlowForge, a staged local rollout engine that predicts future flow fields by compiling a locality-preserving update schedule and executing it with a shared lightweight local predictor. Rather than producing the next frame in a single global pass, FlowForge rewrites spatial sites stage by stage so that each update conditions only on bounded local context exposed by earlier stages. This compile-execute design aligns inference with short-range physical dependence, keeps latency predictable, and limits error amplification from global mixing. Across PDEBench, CFDBench, and BubbleML, FlowForge matches or improves upon strong baselines in pointwise accuracy, delivers consistently better robustness to noise and missing observations, and maintains stable multi-step rollout behavior while reducing per-step latency.

The selection of the optimal embryo for transfer is a critical yet challenging step in in vitro fertilization (IVF), primarily due to its reliance on the manual inspection of extensive time-lapse imaging data. A key obstacle in this process is predicting blastocyst formation from the limited number of daily images available. Many clinics also lack complete time-lapse systems, so full videos are often unavailable. In this study, we aimed to predict which embryos will develop into blastocysts using limited daily images from time-lapse recordings. We propose a novel hybrid model that combines DINOv2, a transformer-based vision model, with an enhanced long short-term memory (LSTM) network featuring a multi-head attention layer. DINOv2 extracts meaningful features from embryo images, and the LSTM model then uses these features to analyze embryo development over time and generate final predictions. We tested our model on a real dataset of 704 embryo videos. The model achieved 96.4% accuracy, surpassing existing methods. It also performs well with missing frames, making it valuable for many IVF laboratories with limited imaging systems. Our approach can assist embryologists in selecting better embryos more efficiently and with greater confidence.

End-to-end autonomous driving has evolved from the conventional paradigm based on sparse perception into vision-language-action (VLA) models, which focus on learning language descriptions as an auxiliary task to facilitate planning. In this paper, we propose an alternative Vision-Geometry-Action (VGA) paradigm that advocates dense 3D geometry as the critical cue for autonomous driving. As vehicles operate in a 3D world, we think dense 3D geometry provides the most comprehensive information for decision-making. However, most existing geometry reconstruction methods (e.g., DVGT) rely on computationally expensive batch processing of multi-frame inputs and cannot be applied to online planning. To address this, we introduce a streaming Driving Visual Geometry Transformer (DVGT-2), which processes inputs in an online manner and jointly outputs dense geometry and trajectory planning for the current frame. We employ temporal causal attention and cache historical features to support on-the-fly inference. To further enhance efficiency, we propose a sliding-window streaming strategy and use historical caches within a certain interval to avoid repetitive computations. Despite the faster speed, DVGT-2 achieves superior geometry reconstruction performance on various datasets. The same trained DVGT-2 can be directly applied to planning across diverse camera configurations without fine-tuning, including closed-loop NAVSIM and open-loop nuScenes benchmarks.

Because human preferences are too complex to codify, AIs operate with misspecified objectives. Optimizing such objectives often produces undesirable outcomes; this phenomenon is known as reward hacking. Such outcomes are not necessarily catastrophic. Indeed, most examples of reward hacking in previous literature are benign. And typically, objectives can be modified to resolve the issue. We study the prospect of catastrophic outcomes induced by AIs operating in complex environments. We argue that, when capabilities are sufficiently advanced, pursuing a fixed consequentialist objective tends to result in catastrophic outcomes. We formalize this by establishing conditions that provably lead to such outcomes. Under these conditions, simple or random behavior is safe. Catastrophic risk arises due to extraordinary competence rather than incompetence. With a fixed consequentialist objective, avoiding catastrophe requires constraining AI capabilities. In fact, constraining capabilities the right amount not only averts catastrophe but yields valuable outcomes. Our results apply to any objective produced by modern industrial AI development pipelines.

Coding agents are increasingly deployed autonomously, at scale, and over long-context horizons. To be effective and safe, these agents must navigate complex trade-offs in deployment, balancing influence from the user, their learned values, and the codebase itself. Understanding how agents resolve these trade-offs in practice is critical, yet prior work has relied on static, synthetic settings that do not capture the complexity of real-world environments. To this end, we introduce a framework built on OpenCode in which a coding agent completes realistic, multi-step tasks under a system prompt constraint favoring one side of a value trade-off. We measure how often the agent violates this constraint as it completes tasks, with and without environmental pressure toward the competing value. Using this framework, we demonstrate that GPT-5 mini, Haiku 4.5, and Grok Code Fast 1 exhibit $\textit{asymmetric drift}$: they are more likely to violate their system prompt when its constraint opposes strongly-held values like security and privacy. We find for the models and values tested that goal drift correlates with three compounding factors: value alignment, adversarial pressure, and accumulated context. However, even constraints aligned with strongly-held values like privacy are violated under sustained environmental pressure for some models. Our findings reveal that shallow compliance checks are insufficient, and that environmental signals can override explicit constraints in ways that appear exploitable. Malicious actors with access to the codebase could manipulate agent behavior by appealing to learned values, with the risk compounding over the long horizons typical of agentic deployment.

Personalization of LLMs by sociodemographic subgroup often improves user experience, but can also introduce or amplify biases and unfair outcomes across groups. Prior work has employed so-called personas, sociodemographic user attributes conveyed to a model, to study bias in LLMs by relying on a single cue to prompt a persona, such as user names or explicit attribute mentions. This disregards LLM sensitivity to prompt variation and the rarity of some cues in real interactions (external validity). We compare six commonly used persona cues across seven open and proprietary LLMs on four writing and advice tasks. While cues are overall highly correlated, they produce substantial variance in responses across personas that can change findings on persona-induced differences and bias. We therefore caution against claims based on single persona cues, especially when they are overly explicit and have low external validity.

We prove tight lower bounds for online multicalibration, establishing an information-theoretic separation from marginal calibration. In the general setting where group functions can depend on both context and the learner's predictions, we prove an $Ω(T^{2/3})$ lower bound on expected multicalibration error using just three disjoint binary groups. This matches the upper bounds of Noarov et al. (2025) up to logarithmic factors and exceeds the $O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})$ upper bound for marginal calibration (Dagan et al., 2025), thereby separating the two problems. We then turn to lower bounds for the more difficult case of group functions that may depend on context but not on the learner's predictions. In this case, we establish an $\widetildeΩ(T^{2/3})$ lower bound for online multicalibration via an $O(\log^3 T)$-sized group family constructed from an orthonormal basis, again matching upper bounds up to logarithmic factors.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are fundamental for modeling sequential data, yet learning their parameters from observations remains challenging. Classical methods like the Baum-Welch algorithm are computationally intensive and prone to local optima, while modern spectral algorithms offer provable guarantees but may produce probability outputs outside valid ranges. This work introduces Belief Net, a differentiable filtering framework that learns HMM parameters by formulating the forward filter as a structured neural network and optimizing it with stochastic gradient descent. This architecture recursively updates the belief state, which represents the posterior probability distribution over hidden states based on the observation history. Unlike black-box transformer models, Belief Net's learnable weights are explicitly the logits of the initial distribution, transition matrix, and emission matrix, ensuring full interpretability. The model processes observation sequences using a decoder-only (causal) architecture and is trained end-to-end with standard autoregressive next-observation prediction loss. On synthetic HMM data, Belief Net achieves faster convergence than Baum-Welch while successfully recovering parameters in both undercomplete and overcomplete settings, whereas spectral methods prove ineffective in the latter. Comparisons with transformer-based models are also presented on real-world language data.

With the emergence of powerful data-driven methods in human trajectory prediction (HTP), gaining a finer understanding of multi-agent interactions lies within hand's reach, with important implications in areas such as social robot navigation, autonomous driving, and crowd modeling. This survey reviews some of the most recent advancements in deep learning-based multi-agent trajectory prediction, focusing on studies published between 2020 and 2025. We categorize the existing methods based on their architectural design, their input representations, and their overall prediction strategies, placing a particular emphasis on models evaluated using the ETH/UCY benchmark. Furthermore, we highlight key challenges and future research directions in the field of multi-agent HTP.

Existing interpretability methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) predominantly capture linear directions or isolated features. This overlooks the high-dimensional, relational, and nonlinear geometry of model representations. We apply persistent homology (PH) to characterize how adversarial inputs reshape the geometry and topology of internal representation spaces of LLMs. This phenomenon, especially when considered across operationally different attack modes, remains poorly understood. We analyze six models (3.8B to 70B parameters) under two distinct attacks, indirect prompt injection and backdoor fine--tuning, and show that a consistent topological signature persists throughout. Adversarial inputs induce topological compression, where the latent space becomes structurally simpler, collapsing the latent space from varied, compact, small-scale features into fewer, dominant, large-scale ones. This signature is architecture-agnostic, emerges early in the network, and is highly discriminative across layers. By quantifying the shape of activation point clouds and neuron-level information flow, our framework reveals geometric invariants of representational change that complement existing linear interpretability methods.

Landing safely in crowded urban environments remains an essential yet challenging endeavor for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), especially in emergency situations. In this work, we propose a risk-aware approach that harnesses semantic segmentation to continuously evaluate potential hazards in the drone's field of view. By using a specialized deep neural network to assign pixel-level risk values and applying an algorithm based on risk maps, our method adaptively identifies a stable Safe Landing Zone (SLZ) despite moving critical obstacles such as vehicles, people, etc., and other visual challenges like shifting illumination. A control system then guides the UAV toward this low-risk region, employing altitude-dependent safety thresholds and temporal landing point stabilization to ensure robust descent trajectories. Experimental validation in diverse urban environments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach, achieving over 90% landing success rates in very challenging real scenarios, showing significant improvements in various risk metrics. Our findings suggest that risk-oriented vision methods can effectively help reduce the risk of accidents in emergency landing situations, particularly in complex, unstructured, urban scenarios, densely populated with moving risky obstacles, while potentiating the true capabilities of UAVs in complex urban operations.

Humans are remarkably adept at collaboration, able to infer the strengths and weaknesses of new partners in order to work successfully towards shared goals. To build AI systems with this capability, we must first understand its building blocks: does such flexibility require explicit, dedicated mechanisms for modelling others -- or can it emerge spontaneously from the pressures of open-ended cooperative interaction? To investigate this question, we train simple model-free RNN agents to collaborate with a population of diverse partners. Using the `Overcooked-AI' environment, we collect data from thousands of collaborative teams, and analyse agents' internal hidden states. Despite a lack of additional architectural features, inductive biases, or auxiliary objectives, the agents nevertheless develop structured internal representations of their partners' task abilities, enabling rapid adaptation and generalisation to novel collaborators. We investigated these internal models through probing techniques, and large-scale behavioural analysis. Notably, we find that structured partner modelling emerges when agents can influence partner behaviour by controlling task allocation. Our results show that partner modelling can arise spontaneously in model-free agents -- but only under environmental conditions that impose the right kind of social pressure.

Accurate identification of individual farm animals in group-housed environments is a cornerstone of precision livestock management. However, current industry standards rely heavily on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) ear tags, which are invasive, prone to loss, and restricted by the spatial limitations of antenna fields. In this paper, we propose a non-intrusive, vision-based identification system leveraging 3D point cloud data captured within a commercial electronic feeding station (EFS). Departing from traditional supervised frame-level inference, we introduce the Temporal Adaptive Recognition Architecture (TARA), a self-sufficient, semi-supervised framework designed to maintain identity consistency over time. TARA employs a dynamic recalibration mechanism that updates individual identity profiles to account for morphological changes in the livestock. To facilitate training in label-scarce environments, we utilize a visit-level majority voting strategy to generate high-fidelity pseudo-labels from raw temporal sequences. Experimental results on a group housed sow dataset collected from an operational commercial barn demonstrate that our approach achieves 100% identification accuracy at the visit level. These results suggest that vision-based 3D point cloud analysis offers a robust, superior alternative to RFID-based systems, paving the way for fully autonomous individual animal monitoring.

Modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems have been observed to function better for certain speaker groups (SGs) than others, despite recent gains in overall performance. One potential impediment to progress towards fairer ASR is a more nuanced understanding of the types of modeling errors that speech encoder models make, and in particular the difference between the structure of embeddings for high-performance and low-performance SGs. This paper proposes a framework typifying two types of error that can occur in modeling phonemes in ASR systems: random error/high variance in phoneme embedding, vs systematic error/embedding bias. We find that training phoneme classification probes only on a single, typically disadvantaged SG, sometimes improves performance for that SG, which is evidence for the existence of SG-level bias in phoneme embeddings. On the other hand, we find that speakers and SGs with higher levels of phoneme variance are the same as those with worse phoneme prediction accuracy. We conclude that both types of error are present in phoneme embeddings and both are candidate causes for SG-level unfairness in ASR, though random error is likely a greater hindrance to fairness than systematic error. Furthermore, we find that finetuning encoder models using a fairness-enhancing algorithm (domain enhancing and adversarial training) changes neither the benefits of in-domain phoneme classification probe training, nor measured levels of random embedding error.