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2604.18373 2026-04-21 econ.GN cs.AI q-fin.EC q-fin.GN

Dissecting AI Trading: Behavioral Finance and Market Bubbles

Shumiao Ouyang, Pengfei Sui

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英文摘要

We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit classic behavioral patterns: a pronounced disposition effect and recency-weighted extrapolative beliefs. Second, these individual-level patterns aggregate into equilibrium dynamics that replicate classic experimental findings (Smith et al., 1988), including the predictive power of excess demand for future prices and the positive relationship between disagreement and trading volume. Third, by analyzing the agents' reasoning text through a twenty-mechanism scoring framework, we show that targeted prompt interventions causally amplify or suppress specific behavioral mechanisms, significantly altering the magnitude of market bubbles.

2604.18330 2026-04-21 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Can Institutional Integration of Western Balkans Stock Exchanges Strengthen Monetary Transmission?

Stefan Tanevski

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This paper asks how institutional stock-market integration reshapes the transmission of monetary policy through asset prices in small open economies. Motivated by the persistent segmentation of Western Balkan capital markets, we develop a two-stage counterfactual transmission framework to identify how stock-exchange consolidation would alter the elasticity of market valuations to monetary shocks. First, a synthetic-control simulation constructs a counterfactual integrated Western Balkan stock exchange comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia, benchmarked to the Baltic OMX merger, thereby quantifying the structural valuation gains of institutional integration. Second, we identify exogenous monetary-policy innovations using a Taylor-rule framework augmented with inflation and output forecasts and reserve adjustments. These shocks are then embedded within a Local-Projections estimator à la Jordà (2005) to trace the dynamic responses of market capitalisation under fragmented and integrated market regimes. The results point to a systematic amplification of monetary-policy transmission through the asset-price channel once markets are unified. Following a policy tightening of about 100 basis points, equity valuations fall roughly twice as strongly under integration than under fragmented markets. Additionally, we find that integration alters the sensitivity of monetary transmission itself: the initial pass-through intensifies, but its marginal responsiveness to further integration declines over time, signalling the consolidation of a new steady-state regime.

2604.18299 2026-04-21 econ.TH

Pseudo-Substitutability: A Maximal Domain for Pairwise Stability in Matching Markets with Contracts

Nadia Guiñazú, Noelia Juarez, Paola Manasero, Pablo Neme, Jorge Oviedo

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We study the existence of pairwise stable allocations in matching markets with contracts and propose a domain restriction that guarantees their existence. Specifically, we define pseudo-substitutable preferences, a domain that strictly extends the classical notion of substitutability while still preserving the existence of pairwise stable allocations. This domain accommodates limited complementarities among contracts while retaining enough structure to preserve the key stability properties of substitutable preferences. Moreover, we show that, among all preference domains that contain the classical substitutable domain and guarantee the existence of pairwise stable allocations, the pseudo-substitutable domain is maximal. Our results establish that pairwise stability extends well beyond the classical substitutable domain.

2604.18144 2026-04-21 econ.GN cs.DL q-fin.EC

Self-referentiality and asymmetric knowledge flows between journals. The case of economics

Alberto Baccini, Carlo Debernardi

Comments 28 pages, 7 figures

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This paper investigates the evolution of self-referentiality and knowledge flows in economics journals before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Using a multi-level approach, we analyze patterns at the discipline, cluster, and journal levels, combining citational measures with a classification of journals based on intellectual similarity and social proximity. At the aggregate level, results suggest a general decline in self-referentiality, indicating increased openness across the discipline. However, this trend conceals substantial heterogeneity. At finer levels of analysis, two clusters - CORE and Finance - emerge as persistent outliers, exhibiting very high levels of self-referentiality. While Finance experienced a gradual reduction over time, the CORE shows increasing closure. By examining reference asymmetries, we uncover a hierarchical structure of knowledge flows. The CORE operates as a central hub and net exporter of knowledge to all other clusters, particularly to the traditional core fields of economics, whereas Finance acts as a net exporter only within its own domain and remains dependent on the CORE. These asymmetries are reinforced at the level of individual journals, where a small set of top journals occupies the apex of a hierarchically ordered system of knowledge transmission. We argue that these patterns reflect the interplay between intellectual dynamics and organizational structures, particularly the role of editorial networks in shaping access to publication and visibility. The findings suggest that, following the financial crisis, economics has experienced a process of increasing epistemic and organizational closure at its core, alongside greater openness in peripheral areas. This dual dynamic raises questions about the representativeness of top journals and the evolving structure of the discipline.

2604.18108 2026-04-21 econ.TH

Sharing the proceeds from a hierarchical venture when agents have needs

R. Pablo Arribillaga, Juan D. Moreno-Ternero, Pablo Neme

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We consider a setting in which a set of agents are hierarchically organized for a joint venture. They each generate revenues for the joint venture and have individual needs to cover. The aim is to distribute aggregate revenues appropriately. We characterize a family of need-adjusted geometric rules where the net revenue (after covering needs) "bubbles up" in the hierarchy, as well as a need-adjusted serial rule in which the net revenue is equally shared among each agent and his predecessors in the hierarchy.

2604.18078 2026-04-21 econ.EM

Factor-Augmented Panel Regressions and Variance-Weighted Treatment Effects

Artūras Juodis, Martin Weidner

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We revisit panel regressions with unobserved heterogeneity through the lens of variance-weighted average treatment effects. Building on established results for cross-sectional OLS and one-way fixed effects panels, we show that two-way panel estimators with latent factors, specifically the principal components estimator of Greenaway-McGrevy, Han and Sul (2012) and the interactive fixed effects estimator of Bai (2009), also converge to interpretable estimands under fully nonparametric assumptions. Both estimators consistently estimate the same variance-weighted average of unit-time-specific treatment effects, where the weights are proportional to the conditional variance of the regressor given the unobserved heterogeneity. The result requires the number of estimated factors to grow with the sample size and applies to the single regressor case. We discuss the challenges that arise when extending to multiple regressors and to inference.

2604.17970 2026-04-21 physics.soc-ph econ.GN q-fin.EC

Do Projects Learn Across Space and Time? Evidence from the Olympics

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier

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Do projects learn across space and time? The Olympics, among the largest publicly funded programmes in the world, offer a unique empirical setting. Theoretically, the Games seem ideal for generating "positive learning curves," driving down costs from one iteration to the next. In practice, they do not. Drawing on the concept of "myopia of learning," we argue that spatiotemporality (geographic distance, temporal gaps, and the temporary organisational form of each host committee) combines to block higher-level learning. Our analysis of cost overruns from 1960 to 2024 reveals no sustained improvement over 64 years. Tactical learning abounds, but none aggregates into strategic improvement. We propose four strategies for overcoming the spatiotemporal barrier (incremental, centralising, decentralising, and real options), arguing that radical reform is required.

2604.17952 2026-04-21 econ.EM cs.SI stat.AP

Causal inference for social network formation

Maximilian Kasy, Elizabeth Linos, Sanaz Mobasseri

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This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality; inference is complicated by questions of equilibrium and sampling. We leverage repeated observations of a network over time and random variation in initial ties to address challenges to causal identification. Our design-based approach sidesteps questions of sampling and asymptotics by treating both the set of nodes (individuals) and potential outcomes as non-random. We apply our approach to data from a large professional services firm, where new hires are randomly assigned to project teams within offices. We estimate the causal effect on tie formation of indirect ties, network degree, and local network density. Indirect ties have a strong and significant positive effect on tie formation, while the effects of degree and density are smaller and less robust.

2604.17946 2026-04-21 physics.ao-ph econ.GN physics.soc-ph q-fin.EC

Import-Dependent Grain Processing Hubs: The Case of Türkiye's Flour Sector

M. Levent Kurnaz

Comments 9 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Environmental Science and Policy

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International commerce has long been seen as a key way to keep the global food system stable, allowing agricultural surpluses in some areas to compensate for shortages in others. This strategy has led to the rise of highly specialised processing hubs that combine significant industrial capacity with agricultural inputs sourced from throughout the world. Türkiye's flour sector -- currently the largest wheat flour exporter in the world -- represents one of the most prominent examples of this model. However, increasing climate variability and geopolitical fragmentation raise important questions regarding the long-term resilience of food systems that rely heavily on imported biological inputs. Recent research shows the growing probability of synchronised crop failures across multiple agricultural regions due to atmospheric circulation anomalies and climate-induced extreme weather events. The assumption that global markets can consistently rebalance supply disruptions through trade is challenged by such events. Using the flour industry of Türkiye as a case study, this paper investigates the susceptibility of globally integrated grain processing centres. In order to assess the correlation between the scope of industrial processing and the capacity of domestic agricultural production, we introduce the Biophysical Autonomy Ratio~(BAR). The analysis demonstrates that Türkiye's BAR has declined consistently over time, suggesting that its processing sector has expanded beyond the domestic production base. The results suggest that in order to enhance the resilience of the food system in the future, it may be necessary to establish a more precise alignment between biological production systems and industrial food infrastructure. The paper concludes by addressing the policy implications for national food security governance in the context of escalating climate instability.

2604.17923 2026-04-21 econ.TH

Optimal linear-payment auction design with aftermarket collaboration

Dazhong Wang, Ruqu Wang, Xinyi Xu

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This paper studies optimal auction design when valuations depend endogenously on post-auction collaboration between the seller and the winning bidder. Both parties exert non-contractible efforts after the auction, generating a double moral hazard problem alongside adverse selection. We analyze two role structures -- winner-pivotal and seller-pivotal collaboration -- and characterize optimal direct mechanisms using linear payment schemes that combine cash transfers with proportional value sharing. The optimal mechanism allocates the asset to the bidder with the highest virtual surplus, employs a deterministic value-sharing rule, and achieves full type revelation through the signal realization rule. Comparing the two scenarios yields three main findings. First, regarding value sharing, the seller secures a strictly higher share under seller-pivotal collaboration: for sufficiently low-type winners, the seller extracts the entire value, whereas under winner-pivotal collaboration every winner must retain a positive share to sustain his critical effort. Second, regarding effort exertion, the pivotal party always exerts higher post-auction effort than the supporting party, and each party exerts greater effort when pivotal than when providing support. Third, seller-pivotal collaboration yields strictly higher seller revenue than winner-pivotal collaboration for any type distribution. Finally, these optimal mechanisms can be implemented through ascending auctions with endogenously determined linear contracts.

2512.02744 2026-04-21 stat.ME econ.EM stat.AP

Implicit score-driven filters for time-varying parameter models

Rutger-Jan Lange, Bram van Os, Dick van Dijk

Comments 73 pages

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We propose an observation-driven modeling framework that allows model parameters to vary over time through an implicit score-driven (ISD) update. The ISD update maximizes the logarithmic observation density with respect to the parameter vector while penalizing the weighted L2 norm relative to a one-step-ahead predicted parameter. This yields an implicit stochastic-gradient update. We show that the popular class of explicit score-driven (ESD) models arises when the observation log density is linearly approximated around the prediction. By preserving the full density, the ISD update extends the favorable local properties of the ESD update to a global setting. For log-concave observation densities, whether correctly specified or not, the ISD filter is stable for all learning rates, and its updates are contractive in mean squared error toward the (pseudo-)true parameter at every time step. We demonstrate the usefulness of ISD filters in simulations and empirical applications in finance and macroeconomics.

2511.16172 2026-04-21 econ.EM stat.ME

Confidence Sets for the Emergence, Collapse, and Recovery Dates of a Bubble

Eiji Kurozumi, Anton Skrobotov

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We propose constructing confidence sets for the emergence, collapse, and recovery dates of a bubble separately by inverting tests for the location of the break date. We examine both likelihood ratio-type tests and the Elliott-Muller-type (2007) tests for detecting break locations. The limiting distributions of these tests are derived under the null hypothesis, and their asymptotic consistency under the alternative is established. Finite-sample properties are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that combining different types of tests effectively controls the empirical coverage rate while maintaining a reasonably small length of the confidence set.

2511.09249 2026-04-21 econ.EM math.ST stat.TH

Robust Cauchy-Based Methods for Predictive Regressions

Rustam Ibragimov, Jihyun Kim, Anton Skrobotov

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This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation framework, we propose two novel tests: one based on $t$-statistic group inference and the other employing a hybrid approach that combines Cauchy and OLS estimation. These methods effectively mitigate size distortions that commonly arise in standard inference procedures under endogeneity, near nonstationarity, heavy tails, and persistent volatility. The proposed tests are simple to implement and applicable to both continuous- and discrete-time models. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance across a range of realistic settings. An empirical application examines the predictability of excess stock returns using the dividend-price and earnings-price ratios as predictors. The results suggest that the dividend-price ratio possesses predictive power, whereas the earnings-price ratio does not significantly forecast returns.

2510.26727 2026-04-21 econ.GN cs.CY q-fin.EC

Neither Consent nor Property: A Policy Lab for Data Law

Haoyi Zhang, Tianyi Zhu

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Regulators currently govern the AI data economy based on intuition rather than evidence, struggling to choose between inconsistent regimes of informed consent, immunity, and liability. To fill this policy vacuum, this paper develops a novel computational policy laboratory: a spatially explicit Agent-Based Model (ABM) of the data market. To solve the problem of missing data, we introduce a two-stage methodological pipeline. First, we translate decision rules from multi-year fieldwork (2022-2025) into agent constraints. This ensures the model reflects actual bargaining frictions rather than theoretical abstractions. Second, we deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) as "subjects" in a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). This novel approach recovers precise preference primitives, such as willingness-to-pay elasticities, which are empirically unobservable in the wild. Calibrated by these inputs, our model places rival legal institutions side-by-side to simulate their welfare effects. The results challenge the dominant regulatory paradigm. We find that property-rule mechanisms, such as informed consent, fail to maximize welfare. Counterintuitively, social welfare peaks when liability for substantive harm is shifted to the downstream buyer. This aligns with the "least cost avoider" principle, because downstream users control post-acquisition safeguards, they are best positioned to mitigate risk efficiently. By "de-romanticizing" seller-centric frameworks, this paper provides an economic justification for emerging doctrines of downstream reachability.

2509.11271 2026-04-21 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Out-of-sample gravity predictions and trade policy counterfactuals

Nicolas Apfel, Holger Breinlich, Nick Green, Dennis Novy, J. M. C. Santos Silva, Tom Zylkin

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Gravity equations are often used to evaluate the effects of trade policies, such as regional trade agreements. We argue that their suitability for this purpose critically depends on their ability to produce unbiased out-of-sample predictions. We propose a methodology to evaluate the out-of-sample predictions obtained with gravity equations and with machine learning methods. We find that the 3-way gravity model is difficult to beat when the purpose is to evaluate policy interventions, further cementing its position as the predominant tool for applied trade policy analysis. However, when the goal is to predict individual flows, machine learning methods can be preferable.

2507.22748 2026-04-21 econ.GN q-fin.EC

How Exposed Are UK Jobs to Generative AI? Developing and Applying a Novel Task-Based Index

Golo Henseke, Rhys Davies, Alan Felstead, Duncan Gallie, Francis Green, Ying Zhou

Comments 47 pages, 9 figures

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Building on the task-based approach to labour markets, we develop the Generative AI Susceptibility Index (GAISI), a job-level measure of UK exposure to large language models (LLMs). Drawing on Eloundou et al. (2024), we use LLMs as probabilistic raters to classify task exposure, linking ratings to worker-reported task data from the British Skills and Employment Surveys. GAISI measures the share of job activities where LLMs can reduce task completion time by at least 25% beyond existing tools. Systematic validations demonstrate high reliability, strong validity, and predictive power over existing exposure measures. By 2023/24, nearly all UK jobs (94%) exhibited some LLM exposure, yet only 13% were heavily exposed (GAISI > 0.5), with the highest concentration in scientific and technical professions. Aggregate exposure rose 16% of one standard deviation since 2017, driven by occupational shifts rather than within-occupation task changes. The wage premium for AI-exposed tasks declined 12% between 2017 and 2023/24, and the period since ChatGPT's release has coincided with a relative contraction of job postings in more AI-exposed occupations. These findings are consistent with generative AI beginning to affect hiring and pay in exposed occupations, though causal attribution requires further research. GAISI offers policymakers and researchers a validated, replicable tool for monitoring AI exposure at the job level as this technology diffuses.

2407.03725 2026-04-21 econ.EM stat.ME

Is Inference Conditional on Not Rejecting a Pre-test Less Reliable than Unconditional Inference?

Clément de Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Comments 42 pages. Many changes compared to v2. In particular, we have added conditions for exact inference and results under local alternatives

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Assume that an estimator is asymptotically normal for a target parameter under some conditions. Suppose also that one can test these conditions, and one conducts inference for the target only if the pre-test is not rejected. Does such pre-testing undermine inference? We show that if the tested conditions and mild regularity restrictions hold, conditional inference is still valid, albeit typically conservative. Validity holds regardless of the asymptotic dependence between the estimator and the pre-test. If the tested conditions do not hold, we exhibit conditions under which confidence intervals have larger conditional than unconditional coverage.

2403.17641 2026-04-21 econ.TH

A Dominance Argument Against Incompleteness

Christian Tarsney, Harvey Lederman, Dean Spears

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Journal ref
Philosophical Review, Volume 134 (2025), pp 455-490
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This article presents a new argument against many forms of moral and prudential value incompleteness. The argument relies on two central principles: (i) a weak "negative dominance" principle, to the effect that Lottery 1 is better than Lottery 2 only if some possible outcome of Lottery 1 is better than some possible outcome of Lottery 2, and (ii) a weak form of ex ante Pareto, to the effect that, if Lottery 1 gives an unambiguously better (stochastically dominant) prospect to some individuals than Lottery 2, and equally good prospects to everyone else, then Lottery 1 is better than Lottery 2. Given modest auxiliary assumptions, these two principles rule out incompleteness in the prudential ranking of individual lives, and many forms of incompleteness in the moral rankings of outcomes and lotteries.

2604.17576 2026-04-21 econ.TH

Strategic Pricing and Consumer Welfare under One-Sided Price Regulation

Philipp Denter

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Motivated by Germany's April 2026 fuel price regulation, in this note I study a two-period pricing problem with demand uncertainty and a rule that prohibits more than one price increase during the day. Under flexible pricing, the firm chooses the static monopoly price in each period. Under the regulation, by contrast, it may price strategically high in period 1 to preserve flexibility in period 2. I show that the regulation weakly raises expected average prices. The increase is strict when future high demand is sufficiently likely and the gap between high and low demand is large; otherwise, expected average prices are unchanged. Consumer surplus rises when expected prices do not, and decreases otherwise.

2604.17239 2026-04-21 math.ST econ.EM stat.TH

Bootstrap consistency for general double/debiased machine learning estimators

Ziming Lin, Fang Han

Comments 30 pages

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Double/debiased machine learning (DML) provides a general framework for inference with high-dimensional or otherwise complex nuisance parameters by combining Neyman-orthogonal scores with cross-fitting, thereby circumventing classical Donsker-type conditions in many modern machine-learning settings. Despite its strong empirical performance, bootstrap inference for DML estimators has received little theoretical justification. This is particularly noteworthy since bootstrap methods are suggested ad used for inference on DML estimators, even though bootstrap procedures can fail for estimators that are root-$n$ consistent and asymptotically normal. This paper fills this gap by establishing bootstrap validity for DML estimators under general exchangeably weighted resampling schemes, with Efron's bootstrap as a special case. Under exactly the same conditions required for the validity of DML itself, we prove that the bootstrap law converges conditionally weakly to the sampling law of the original estimator.

2604.17183 2026-04-21 cs.CE cs.LG econ.EM

A Model and Estimation of the Bitcoin Transaction Fee

Daniel Aronoff, Kristian Praizner, Armin Sabouri

Comments 53 pages

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Bitcoin transaction fees will become more important as the block subsidy declines, but fee formation is hard to study with blockchain data alone because the relevant queueing environment is unobserved. We develop and estimate a structural model of Bitcoin fee choice that treats the mempool as a market for scarce blockspace. We assemble a novel, high-frequency mempool panel, from a self-run Bitcoin node that records transaction arrivals, exits, block inclusion, fee-bumping events, and congestion snapshots. We characterize the fee market as a Vickery-Clarke-Groves mechanism and derive an equation to estimate fees. In the first-stage we estimate a monotone delay technology linking fee-rate priority and network state to expected confirmation delay. We then estimate how fees respond to that delay technology and to transaction characteristics. We find that congestion is the main determinant of delay; that the marginal value of priority is priced in fees, which is increasing in the gradient of confirmation time reduction per movement up in the fee queue; and that transactor choice of RBF, CPFP, and block conditions have economically important effects on fees.

2604.17167 2026-04-21 econ.GN cs.CE q-fin.EC

The Hidden Plumbing of Stablecoins: Financial and Technological Risks in the GENIUS Act Era

Daniel Aronoff, F. Christopher Calabia, Anders Brownworth, Ashwanth Samuel, Neha Narula

Comments 67 pages

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U.S. dollar stablecoins are increasingly used as payment and settlement instruments beyond cryptocurrency markets. With the enactment of the GENIUS Act in 2025, the United States established the first comprehensive federal framework governing their issuance, backing, and supervision. This paper evaluates the financial, technological, and regulatory risks that may arise as GENIUS-compliant stablecoins scale into mainstream use. We show that maintaining par-value redemption may depend not only on backing-asset quality, but also on the functioning of Treasury and repo markets, the balance-sheet capacity of broker-dealers, and the operational reliability of blockchain-based transaction rails. Even conservatively backed stablecoins can face stress from redemption surges, market-intermediation bottlenecks, or technological disruptions. We argue that durable stability will likely require an integrated approach spanning financial-market infrastructure, prudential regulation, and software governance. While grounded in U.S.\ law, the analysis identifies principles that are relevant for regulators in other jurisdictions developing stablecoin regimes.

2604.17166 2026-04-21 q-fin.GN cs.LG econ.EM q-fin.PM q-fin.PR

The Virtue of Sparsity in Complexity

Nima Afsharhajari, Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

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Sparsity or complexity? In modern high-dimensional asset pricing, these are often viewed as competing principles: richer feature spaces appear to favor complexity, while economic intuition has long favored parsimony. We show that this tension is misplaced. We distinguish capacity sparsity-the dimensionality of the candidate feature space-from factor sparsity-the parsimonious structure of priced risks-and argue that the two are complements: expanding capacity enables the discovery of factor sparsity. Revisiting the benchmark empirical design of Didisheim et al. (2025) and pushing it to higher complexity regimes, we show that nonlinear feature expansions combined with basis pursuit yield portfolios whose out-of-sample performance dominates ridgeless benchmarks beyond a critical complexity threshold. The evidence shows that the gains from complexity arise not from retaining more factors, but from enlarging the space from which a sparse structure of priced risks can be identified. The virtue of complexity in asset pricing operates through factor sparsity.

2604.09663 2026-04-21 econ.EM q-fin.GN stat.ME

JFR-rg: A New Macroeconomic Framework for High-Debt, Low-Growth Economies under Financial Repression

Hirofumi Wakimoto

Comments JEL Classification: E44, E52, E62, F31, H63. v2: bibliographic corrections, consistency fixes, and clarifications of scope conditions, falsification language, and selected interpretations; results unchanged

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英文摘要

Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary perspective: debt ratios have stabilized, nominal GDP has exceeded 670 trillion yen (SAAR), and unemployment has remained near 2.6-2.7%. This paper formalizes these channels through the Japanese Financial Repression r-g (JFR-rg) model. Building on Blanchard (2019), the framework incorporates a financial repression bias (epsilon_t = pi_t - r^n_t, directly observable from FRED) and a non-linear exchange-rate channel. Three theoretical contributions extend the literature: (i) the Debt Sustainability Corridor, a characterization of stability in (epsilon_t, g^n*_t) space; (ii) the Normalization Ratchet, a path-dependence theorem showing that temporary policy errors generate persistently higher debt trajectories; and (iii) the Captive Financial System Parameter (phi_t), which endogenizes the institutional precondition for JFR-rg stability. Appendices H-L provide supporting empirical evidence (VAR, ARDL, Local Projections) showing the framework's claims are empirically disciplined and falsifiable. The core debt-dynamics propositions are anchored in the consolidated government budget identity (Layer L1), while selected propositions additionally rely on minimal structural assumptions; identification concerns apply only to the empirical Layer L2. Counterfactual simulations illustrate a Normalization Trap: aggressive rate hikes can produce counterproductive debt dynamics. For high-debt, low-growth economies sharing Japan's institutional characteristics, strategically deploying the resulting Repression Dividend into productivity-enhancing investment may represent a regime-contingent equilibrium possibility, conditional on the captive system condition being maintained.

2604.08678 2026-04-21 econ.GN cs.HC q-fin.EC

Scaffolding Human-AI Collaboration: A Field Experiment on Behavioral Protocols and Cognitive Reframing

Alex Farach, Alexia Cambon, Lev Tankelevitch, Connie Hsueh, Rebecca Janssen

Comments v2: corrected appendix table float placement; no changes to results, prose, or numbers. Working paper. 45 pages including appendices

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Organizations have widely deployed generative AI tools, yet productivity gains remain uneven, suggesting that how people use AI matters as much as whether they have access. We conducted a field experiment with 388 employees at a Fortune 500 retailer to test two scaffolding interventions for human-AI collaboration. All participants had access to the same AI tool; we varied only the structure surrounding its use. A behavioral scaffolding intervention (a structured protocol requiring joint AI use within pairs) was associated with lower document quality relative to unstructured use and substantially lower document production. A cognitive scaffolding intervention (partnership training that reframed AI as a thought partner) was associated with higher individual document quality at the top of the distribution. Treatment participants also showed greater positive belief change across the session, though sensitivity analyses suggest this likely reflects recovery from carry-over effects rather than genuine training-induced shifts. Both findings are subject to design limitations including an AM/PM session confound, differential attrition, and LLM grading sensitivity to document length.

2511.02436 2026-04-21 econ.TH

Dynamic Correlation as an Incentive Device

Allen Vong

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I introduce dynamic correlation as an incentive instrument to address moral hazard. A firm mediates interactions between a long-lived worker and short-lived clients. I show that optimal mediation induces a nonstationary correlated information structure that transitions from private to public communication, consistent with the empirical shift from personalized to standardized communication in organizations. By using private communication to correlate continuations, the firm relaxes otherwise binding incentive constraints and strengthens effort incentives. Mediation expands the Pareto frontier and generates a distributional conflict between the worker and the average client, and is Pareto-improving if and only if the worker is sufficiently patient.

2505.22940 2026-04-21 econ.TH cs.GT

A Smart-Contract to Resolve Multiple Equilibrium in Intermediated Trade

Daniel Aronoff, Robert M. Townsend

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We construct an empirically founded model of a repo trade intermediated by two broker-dealers and prove multiple equilibrium and the existence of equilibrium at the joint profit maximizing volume of trade. We then present a smart contract that resolves multiple equilibrium by requiring each broker-dealer to report its client schedule and its minimum hurdle spread, and implementing a selection rule that filters out hurdle-infeasible outcomes. Whenever there exists an equilibrium that exceeds both hurdle spreads, the protocol selects the joint profit maximizing feasible trade and thereby avoids a collapse to no trade. The smart contract is a machine executed algorithm which eliminates the need for trust. Hardware and cryptography are used to prevent leakage of broker-dealer client trade schedules, and to enable privacy-protected auditing with zero-knowledge proofs of the integrity of computations. The outcome can be implemented by a myopic strategy where a broker-dealer truthfully reports its own variables without anticipating its counterparty's reports. This minimizes cognitive and computational complexity, thereby making our smart contract suitable for real-world deployment.

2409.10030 2026-04-21 stat.ME econ.EM stat.ML

LASSO Inference for High Dimensional Predictive Regressions

Zhan Gao, Ji Hyung Lee, Ziwei Mei, Zhentao Shi

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LASSO inflicts shrinkage bias on estimated coefficients, which undermines asymptotic normality and invalidates standard inferential procedures based on the t-statistic. Given cross sectional data, the desparsified LASSO has emerged as a well-known remedy for correcting the shrinkage bias. In the context of high dimensional predictive regression, the desparsified LASSO faces an additional challenge: the Stambaugh bias arising from nonstationary regressors modeled as local unit roots. To restore standard inference, we propose a novel estimator called IVX-desparsified LASSO (XDlasso). XDlasso simultaneously eliminates both shrinkage bias and Stambaugh bias and does not require prior knowledge about the identities of nonstationary and stationary regressors. We establish the asymptotic properties of XDlasso for hypothesis testing, and our theoretical findings are supported by Monte Carlo simulations. Applying our method to real-world applications from the FRED-MD database, we investigate two important empirical questions: (i) the predictability of the U.S. stock returns based on the earnings-price ratio, and (ii) the predictability of the U.S. inflation using the unemployment.

2406.11405 2026-04-21 physics.soc-ph econ.GN q-fin.EC

Network growth under opportunistic attachment

Carolina ES Mattsson

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Journal ref
Applied Network Science 10, 21 (2025)
英文摘要

Growing network models can potentially be a useful tool in the development of economic theory. This work introduces an "opportunistic attachment" mechanism where incoming nodes, in deciding where to join a network, consider features of the entry points available to them. For example, an entrepreneur looking to start a thriving business might consider the expected revenue of many hypothetical businesses. This mechanism is explored, in isolation, via a minimal model where PageRank serves to score the available opportunities. Despite its simplicity, this model gives rise to rich node dynamics, path-dependence, and an unexpected degenerate structure. We go on to argue that this model might be useful to theoretical development as a maximally stylised model of entrepreneurial growth. Central to the argument is an alternative set of microfoundations introduced in Leontief & Brody (1993) whereby the steady state of a random walk is a notion of economic equilibrium. To the extent this argument holds, our findings suggest that entrepreneurs face a shifting "opportunity space" where the number of potential business opportunities is effectively unbounded. Opportunistic attachment is thus a candidate mechanism for relating the structure of an economic system to its future growth.

2207.08941 2026-04-21 physics.soc-ph econ.GN q-fin.EC

Circulation of a digital community currency

Carolina E S Mattsson, Teodoro Criscione, Frank W Takes

详情
Journal ref
Scientific Reports 13, 5864 (2023)
英文摘要

Circulation is the characteristic feature of successful currency systems, from community currencies to cryptocurrencies to national currencies. In this paper, we propose a network analysis approach especially suited for studying circulation given a system's digital transaction records. Sarafu is a digital community currency that was active in Kenya over a period that saw considerable economic disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We represent its circulation as a network of monetary flow among the 40,000 Sarafu users. Network flow analysis reveals that circulation was highly modular, geographically localized, and occurring among users with diverse livelihoods. Across localized sub-populations, network cycle analysis supports the intuitive notion that circulation requires cycles. Moreover, the sub-networks underlying circulation are consistently degree disassortative and we find evidence of preferential attachment. Community-based institutions often take on the role of local hubs, and network centrality measures confirm the importance of early adopters and of women's participation. This work demonstrates that networks of monetary flow enable the study of circulation within currency systems at a striking level of detail, and our findings can be used to inform the development of community currencies in marginalized areas.