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2604.11760 2026-04-14 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Effects of interviewers on response to income and wealth items

Moslem Rashidi

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Item nonresponse to financial questions is a persistent source of survey error, especially in interviewer-administered surveys. We examine whether interviewers' expectations about respondents' willingness to report income are associated with actual item responses to income and asset questions in Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Using data from 41,934 respondents in 12 countries, linked to interviewer survey and roster information, we analyze responses to four financial items with substantial nonresponse. We compare three approaches to handling missing covariates: complete-case analysis, multiple imputation (fill-in methods), and a generalized missing-indicator framework with information-criterion-based model averaging. Across most specifications, respondents interviewed by interviewers with higher expected income response rates are more likely to provide financial information. However, model averaging does not yield clear gains over simpler approaches. The results suggest that interviewer expectations contain useful information for understanding and modeling item nonresponse to sensitive financial items, with potential implications for interviewer training and survey fieldwork design.

2604.11577 2026-04-14 math.OC q-fin.PM

Risk-Constrained Kelly for Mutually Exclusive Outcomes: CRRA Support Invariance and Logarithmic One-Dimensional Calibration

Christopher D. Long

Comments 16 pages, 0 figures

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We study the finite mutually exclusive outcome version of risk-constrained Kelly optimization with explicit state prices. The market has outcome probabilities $p_i>0$, state prices $q_i>0$, terminal wealths $W_i=c+x_i/q_i$, and a drawdown-surrogate constraint \[ \sum_{i=1}^n p_i W_i^{-λ}\le 1,\qquad λ>0. \] For constant relative risk aversion utility, we work primarily in the standard overround regime $\sum_i q_i>1$, where every optimizer is necessarily non-full-support. Under the usual unique likelihood-ratio prefix hypothesis for the unconstrained problem, we prove that the constrained optimizer has exactly the same active set. Thus, in the regime where the prefix theorem is meaningful, the risk constraint deforms the funded wealth profile but does not change the active set. The support is therefore invariant across both the CRRA parameter and the drawdown-surrogate parameter. We then isolate the logarithmic case $γ=1$. Once the common active prefix is known, the constrained problem reduces to a one-dimensional outer calibration together with independent one-dimensional inner equations on the active states. In this case we prove existence, uniqueness, and monotonicity for the inner solves, derive a complete calibration theorem, and record the resulting structured algorithm. We treat the fair and subfair regimes only as boundary cases: full-support phenomena can occur there, so the overround prefix theory no longer yields a parallel exact description of comparable sharpness. A numerical example illustrates how the risk constraint alters the funded wealth profile while leaving support unchanged.

2604.11561 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM

A Counterfactual Diagnostic Framework for Explaining KS Deterioration in Credit Risk Model Validation

Yiqing Wang

Comments 18 pages, 4 figures

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The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic is widely used in credit risk model monitoring and validation to assess discriminatory power. In practice, a material decline in KS often triggers governance review and requires validation teams to identify the breach source and the potential business risk. However, such diagnosis is frequently conducted on an ad hoc basis, relying on the judgment of individual validators rather than a standardized analytical framework. This paper proposes a counterfactual diagnostic framework for explaining KS deterioration in credit risk model validation. The framework sequentially attributes observed KS decline to sampling variability, portfolio composition change, covariate shift, and residual deterioration consistent with model drift, with explicit gateway conditions governing escalation at each stage. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach provides more interpretable and governance-relevant explanations than threshold-based review alone, and contributes to more consistent, transparent, and defensible performance-breach assessment in credit risk model validation.

2604.11477 2026-04-14 cs.AI cs.SE q-fin.TR

OOM-RL: Out-of-Money Reinforcement Learning Market-Driven Alignment for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems

Kun Liu, Liqun Chen

Comments 13 pages, 3 figures

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The alignment of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) for autonomous software engineering is constrained by evaluator epistemic uncertainty. Current paradigms, such as Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and AI Feedback (RLAIF), frequently induce model sycophancy, while execution-based environments suffer from adversarial "Test Evasion" by unconstrained agents. In this paper, we introduce an objective alignment paradigm: \textbf{Out-of-Money Reinforcement Learning (OOM-RL)}. By deploying agents into the non-stationary, high-friction reality of live financial markets, we utilize critical capital depletion as an un-hackable negative gradient. Our longitudinal 20-month empirical study (July 2024 -- February 2026) chronicles the system's evolution from a high-turnover, sycophantic baseline to a robust, liquidity-aware architecture. We demonstrate that the undeniable ontological consequences of financial loss forced the MAS to abandon overfitted hallucinations in favor of the \textbf{Strict Test-Driven Agentic Workflow (STDAW)}, which enforces a Byzantine-inspired uni-directional state lock (RO-Lock) anchored to a deterministically verified $\geq 95\%$ code coverage constraint matrix. Our results show that while early iterations suffered severe execution decay, the final OOM-RL-aligned system achieved a stable equilibrium with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.06 in its mature phase. We conclude that substituting subjective human preference with rigorous economic penalties provides a robust methodology for aligning autonomous agents in high-stakes, real-world environments, laying the groundwork for generalized paradigms where computational billing acts as an objective physical constraint

2604.11413 2026-04-14 q-fin.ST econ.GN q-fin.EC

A Herding-Based Model of Technological Transfer and Economic Convergence: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Vygintas Gontis, Lesya Kolinets

Comments 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 Tables

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The long-run convergence of developing economies toward advanced countries exhibits robust empirical regularities, yet the mechanisms underlying technological diffusion remain insufficiently specified in standard growth models. In this paper, we extend the neoclassical framework by introducing a micro-founded mechanism of technological transfer as a driver of total factor productivity. Rather than treating technological progress as exogenous or purely innovation-driven, we model productivity growth as a process of adopting existing technologies from the global frontier. The diffusion process is described using a herding-type interaction mechanism, in which agents transition from non-adopters to adopters under the combined influence of individual incentives and peer effects. This approach yields a tractable aggregate representation of TFP dynamics characterized by nonlinear convergence toward a moving technological frontier. We derive an explicit analytical solution and provide an interpretation of model parameters in terms of initial productivity, convergence limits, and diffusion speed. The model is evaluated using OECD productivity data for Central and Eastern European economies.

2604.11384 2026-04-14 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Statehood Without Capacity

Rok Spruk

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This paper develops a political-economy theory of statehood without capacity. I argue that under specific institutional and geopolitical conditions, a polity can become trapped in an equilibrium of nominal statehood: a state in which claims to sovereignty, external recognition, and symbolic legitimacy persist or even strengthen while the coercive, fiscal, administrative, and legal capacities required for effective statehood remain weak. The mechanism is driven by three forces. First, fragmented elites may privately benefit from preserving autonomous control, patronage, and localized rent extraction rather than consolidating authority into a unified state. Second, externally mediated transfers can reduce the immediate costs of institutional non-consolidation and thereby stabilize a low-capacity equilibrium. Third, international recognition and symbolic endorsement may be only weakly conditioned on domestic administrative performance, allowing recognition capital to accumulate more rapidly than capacity capital. The theory generates a dynamic divergence between juridical or symbolic statehood and effective statehood, with implications for investment, fiscal fragility, corruption, and vulnerability to conflict shocks. The paper derives testable predictions and then interprets Palestine as a flagship application of the broader mechanism. The central implication is that statehood is not only a question of recognition or territorial claim but an equilibrium outcome of institutional consolidation. Where the incentives to consolidate remain weak, sovereignty may be asserted without becoming viable.

2604.11143 2026-04-14 q-fin.PM q-fin.RM

Temperature Anomalies and Climate Physical Risk in Portfolio Construction

Michele Azzone, Carlo Bechi, Gabriele Sbaiz

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Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns, we provide statistical evidence that extreme temperature events exert a negative effect on most sectors. We introduce two novel metrics based on these temperature anomalies, Climate Risk Exposure and Climate Exposure Volatility, in order to measure the environmental vulnerability of a portfolio. Unlike available static country-level indices, these metrics incorporate the time varying probability of extreme events and their relations with firm-specific asset intensity. We integrate these measures into a multi-objective portfolio optimization framework. This approach extends the traditional Mean-Variance paradigm, allowing investors to construct portfolios that are resilient to physical climate shocks without sacrificing diversification. Finally, we conduct a backtesting analysis to show the practical benefits of incorporating these climate risk metrics into the investment process, evaluating how climate-aware strategies perform relative to traditional benchmarks.

2604.11100 2026-04-14 q-fin.MF cs.SY eess.SY

Mechanism Design for Investment Regulation under Herding

Huisheng Wang, H. Vicky Zhao

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Herding, where investors imitate others' decisions rather than relying on their own analysis, is a prevalent phenomenon in financial markets. Excessive herding distorts rational decisions, amplifies volatility, and can be exploited by manipulators to harm the market. Traditional regulatory tools, such as information disclosure and transaction restrictions, are often imprecise and lack theoretical guarantees for effectiveness. This calls for a quantitative approach to regulating herding. We propose a regulator-leader-follower trilateral game framework based on optimal control theory to study the complex dynamics among them. The leader makes rational decisions, the follower maximizes utility while aligning with the leader's decisions, whereas the regulator designs a mechanism to maximize social welfare and minimize regulatory cost. We derive the follower's decisions and the regulator's mechanisms, theoretically analyze the impact of regulation on decisions, and investigate effective mechanisms to improve social welfare.

2511.04198 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM math.PR

Mean-field approximations in insurance

Philipp C. Hornung

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The calculation of the insurance liabilities of a cohort of dependent individuals in general requires the solution of a high-dimensional system of coupled linear forward integro-differential equations, which is infeasible for a larger cohort. However, by using a mean-field model, the high dimensional system of linear forward equations can be replaced by a low-dimensional system of non-linear forward integro-differential equations. We show that, subject to certain regularity conditions, the insurance liability viewed as a (conditional) expectation of a functional of an underlying jump process converges to its mean-field counterpart, as the number of individuals in the cohort goes to infinity. Examples from both life- and non-life insurance illuminate the practical importance of mean-field approximations.

2508.14813 2026-04-14 q-fin.MF math.PR q-fin.CP

Pricing Options on Forwards in Function-Valued Affine Stochastic Volatility Models

Jian He, Sven Karbach, Asma Khedher

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We study the pricing of European-style options written on forward contracts within function-valued infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility models. The dynamics of the underlying forward price curves are modeled within the Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela framework as solution to a stochastic partial differential equation modulated by a stochastic volatility process. We analyze two classes of affine stochastic volatility models: (i) a Gaussian model governed by a finite-rank Wishart process, and (ii) a pure-jump affine model extending the Barndorff--Nielsen--Shephard framework with state-dependent jumps in the covariance component. For both models, we derive conditions for the existence of exponential moments and develop semi-closed Fourier-based pricing formulas for vanilla call and put options written on forward price curves. Our approach allows for tractable pricing in models with infinitely many risk factors, thereby capturing maturity-specific and term structure risk essential in forward markets.

2604.10657 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM

Lambda R{é}nyi entropic value-at-risk

Zhenfeng Zou

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This paper introduces the Lambda extension of the Rényi entropic value-at-risk ($Λ$-EVaR), a novel family of risk measures that unifies the flexible confidence level structure of the $Λ$-framework with the higher-moment sensitivity of EVaR. We define $Λ$-EVaR, establish its foundational properties including monotonicity, cash subadditivity, and quasi-convexity, and provide a complete axiomatic characterization showing that convexity, concavity in mixtures and cash additivity hold only when $Λ$ is constant. A dual representation and an extended Rockafellar-Uryasev-type formula are derived, enabling efficient computation. We further analyze the worst-case behavior of $Λ$-EVaR under Wasserstein and mean-variance uncertainty, obtaining closed-form expressions that reveal its robustness properties. The proposed measure bridges the gap between adaptive risk tolerance and moment-sensitive risk assessment, offering a versatile tool for modern risk management.

2604.10570 2026-04-14 econ.GN cs.CE q-fin.EC stat.AP

Unveiling contrasting impacts of heat mitigation and adaptation policies on U.S. internal migration

Chao Li, Xing Su, Chao Fan, Yang Li, Luping Li, Chunmo Zheng, Wenglong Chao, Leena Jarvi, Han Lin, Juan Tu

Comments 24 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables

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While climate-induced population migration has received rising attention, the role played by human climate endeavors remains underexplored. Here, we combine machine learning with attribution mapping to analyze the impacts of 4,713 heat-related policies (HPs) on 11,177 migration flows between U.S. counties. We find that heat adaptation policies (APs) and heat mitigation policies (MPs) have significant and opposing impacts on internal migration: APs reduce out-migration, while MPs increase it. These policies have heterogeneous effects on migration among policy types. Behavioral and cultural MPs at origins lead to a 0.24%-0.68% (95% confidence interval) increase in annual outflows per policy, whereas behavioral and cultural APs at destinations elevate outflows of origins by 0.11%-1.55% (95% confidence interval). Migration patterns are nonlinearly moderated by income, ageing, education, and racial diversity of both origin and destination counties. Ageing rates have the most noticeable U-shaped relationship in shaping migration responses to behavioral and cultural MPs at origins, and inverted U-shapes for institutional MPs at origins and nature-based MPs at destinations. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers on how HPs influence migration as global warming and policy interventions persist.

2604.10529 2026-04-14 econ.GN cs.AI cs.CL q-fin.EC q-fin.GN

AI Patents in the United States and China: Measurement, Organization, and Knowledge Flows

Hanming Fang, Xian Gu, Hanyin Yan, Wu Zhu

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We develop a high-precision classifier to measure artificial intelligence (AI) patents by fine-tuning PatentSBERTa on manually labeled data from the USPTO's AI Patent Dataset. Our classifier substantially improves the existing USPTO approach, achieving 97.0% precision, 91.3% recall, and a 94.0% F1 score, and it generalizes well to Chinese patents based on citation and lexical validation. Applying it to granted U.S. patents (1976-2023) and Chinese patents (2010-2023), we document rapid growth in AI patenting in both countries and broad convergence in AI patenting intensity and subfield composition, even as China surpasses the United States in recent annual patent counts. The organization of AI innovation nevertheless differs sharply: U.S. AI patenting is concentrated among large private incumbents and established hubs, whereas Chinese AI patenting is more geographically diffuse and institutionally diverse, with larger roles for universities and state-owned enterprises. For listed firms, AI patents command a robust market-value premium in both countries. Cross-border citations show continued technological interdependence rather than decoupling, with Chinese AI inventors relying more heavily on U.S. frontier knowledge than vice versa.

2604.10375 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM q-fin.PM stat.AP

On the Structure of Risk Contribution: A Leave-One-Out Decomposition into Inherent and Correlation Risk

Nolan Alexander, Frank Fabozzi

Comments Code: https://github.com/nolanalexander/inherent-correlation-decomposition

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This paper develops a decomposition of standard Risk Contribution (RC) into two economically interpretable components: inherent risk and correlation risk. Using a leave-one-out representation, each position's RC separates into a term reflecting its own volatility contribution independent of the portfolio and a term capturing its covariance with the remainder of the portfolio. The inherent component is always positive, arising from the intrinsic volatility of the position, while the correlation component may amplify or mitigate total portfolio risk depending on how the position moves relative to other holdings. Because the decomposition operates within standard RC, it preserves the property of strict additivity. This separation provides diagnostic insight not visible from aggregate risk contributions alone. It distinguishes whether a position contributes risk because it is volatile in isolation or because it is highly correlated with the rest of the portfolio, and it clarifies when a negatively correlated position functions as an effective hedge. Two approaches to time-series analysis are presented to track how inherent and correlation risk evolve across market regimes, revealing whether changes in portfolio risk during stress periods are driven by volatility shocks, correlation shifts, or both. Empirical illustrations suggest that the decomposition provides stable, transparent, and easily implementable risk diagnostics that can support portfolio risk reporting, stress testing, and performance attribution.

2604.10360 2026-04-14 cs.SI cs.HC econ.GN q-fin.EC

Good Question! The Effect of Positive Feedback on Contributions to Online Public Goods

Johannes Wachs, Leonore Röseler, Tobias Gesche, Elliott Ash, Anikó Hannák

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Online platforms where volunteers answer each other's questions are important sources of knowledge, yet participation is declining. We ran a pre-registered experiment on Stack Overflow, one of the largest Q&A communities for software development (N = 22,856), randomly assigning newly posted questions to receive an anonymous upvote. Within four weeks, treated users were 6.3% more likely to ask another question and 12.9% more likely to answer someone else's question. A second upvote produced no additional effect. The effect on answering was larger, more persistent, and still significant at twelve weeks. Next, we examine how much of these effects are due to algorithmic amplification, since upvotes also raise a question's rank and visibility. Algorithmic amplification is not important for the effect on asking additional questions, but it matters a lot for the effect on answering other questions. The increase in visibility increases the probability that another user provides an answer, and that experience appears to shift the poster toward broader community participation.

2512.07787 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM math.PR

VaR at Its Extremes: Impossibilities and Conditions for One-Sided Random Variables

Nawaf Mohammed

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We investigate the extremal aggregation behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) -- that is, its additivity properties across all probability levels -- for sums of one-sided random variables. For risks supported on \([0,\infty)\), we show that VaR sub-additivity is impossible except in the degenerate case of exact additivity, which holds only under co-monotonicity. To characterize when VaR is instead fully super-additive, we introduce two structural conditions: negative simplex dependence (NSD) for the joint distribution and simplex dominance (SD) for a margin-dependent functional. Together, these conditions provide a unified and easily verifiable framework that accommodates non-identical margins, heavy-tailed laws, and a wide spectrum of negative dependence structures. All results extend to random variables with arbitrary finite lower or upper endpoints, yielding sharp constraints on when strict sub- or super-additivity can occur.

2408.06531 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM math.PR q-fin.CP

Adaptive Multilevel Stochastic Approximation of the Value-at-Risk

Stéphane Crépey, Noufel Frikha, Azar Louzi, Jonathan Spence

Comments 43 pages, 6 tables, 5 figures, 3 algorithms

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Crépey, Frikha, and Louzi (2025) introduced a multilevel stochastic approximation scheme to compute the value-at-risk of a financial loss that is only simulatable by Monte Carlo. The best complexity of the scheme is in O($\varepsilon^{-\frac52}$), $\varepsilon>0$ being a prescribed accuracy, which is suboptimal compared to the canonical multilevel Monte Carlo performance. This suboptimality stems from the discontinuity ofthe Heaviside function involved in the biased stochastic gradient that is recursively evaluated to derive the value-at-risk. To mitigate this issue, this paper proposes and analyzes a multilevel stochastic approximation algorithm that adaptively selects the number of inner samples at each level, and proves that its best complexity is in O($\varepsilon^{-2}|\ln{\varepsilon}|^\frac52$). Our theoretical analysis is exemplified through numerical experiments.

2311.15333 2026-04-14 q-fin.RM math.PR q-fin.CP

Asymptotic Error Analysis of Multilevel Stochastic Approximations for the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

Stéphane Crépey, Noufel Frikha, Azar Louzi, Gilles Pagès

Comments 56 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables

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Crépey, Frikha, and Louzi (2025) introduced a nested stochastic approximation algorithm and its multilevel acceleration to compute the value-at-risk and expected shortfall of a random financial loss. We hereby establish central limit theorems for the renormalized estimation errors associated with both algorithms as well as their averaged versions. Our findings are substantiated through a numerical example.

2304.01207 2026-04-14 q-fin.CP math.PR q-fin.RM

A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation

Stéphane Crépey, Noufel Frikha, Azar Louzi

Comments 50 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables, 3 algorithms

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We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of future risk factors. Thus the problem of estimating its VaR and ES is nested in nature and can be viewed as an instance of stochastic approximation problems with biased innovations. In this framework, for a prescribed accuracy $\varepsilon$, the optimal complexity of a nested stochastic approximation algorithm is shown to be of the order $\varepsilon^{-3}$. To estimate the VaR, our MLSA algorithm attains an optimal complexity of the order $\varepsilon^{-2-δ}$, where $δ\in(0,1)$ is some parameter depending on the integrability degree of the loss, while to estimate the ES, the algorithm achieves an optimal complexity of the order $\varepsilon^{-2}|\ln{\varepsilon}|^2$. Numerical studies of the joint evolution of the error rate and the execution time demonstrate how our MLSA algorithm regains a significant amount of the performance lost due to the nested nature of the problem.

2604.10194 2026-04-14 q-fin.TR q-fin.MF

Mandatory Disclosure in Oligopolistic Market Making

Seongjin Kim, Jin Hyuk Choi

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We develop a multi-period Kyle-type model that incorporates both mandatory disclosure of informed trades and imperfect competition among market makers. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a linear equilibrium and show that the liquidity-enhancing effect of disclosure is fundamentally linked to the degree of market-making competition. Disclosure lowers trading costs by reducing price impact, and its marginal benefit is strictly larger when competition is weak. We empirically validate this prediction using the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act disclosure reform as a natural experiment. A difference-in-differences analysis of U.S. equities confirms that the spread reduction following enhanced disclosure is significantly larger for stocks with fewer active market makers.

2604.09986 2026-04-14 q-fin.MF

The Long-Only Minimum Variance Portfolio in a One-Factor Market: Theory and Asymptotics

Alec Kercheval, Ololade Sowunmi

Comments 28 pages, 4 figures

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We study the long-only minimum variance (LOMV) portfolio under a one-factor covariance model with asset betas of arbitrary sign. We provide an explicit solution in terms of the set of active (positive weight) assets, and provide an explicit and computable characterization of the active set. As a corollary we resolve an open question of \citet{qi2021} concerning the extension to mixed-sign betas. In the high-dimensional regime $p \to \infty$ where the betas are drawn from a distribution with cdf $F$, we prove that the proportion of active assets (the active ratio) in the LOMV portfolio converges in almost all cases to $F(β^{*})$, where $β^* \geq 0$ is the root of an explicit integral equation determined by $F$. This is a variation of a result first appearing in \citet{bernstein2025}. In particular, when $F$ is continuous and all betas are positive ($F(0)=0$), the active ratio converges to zero. When $F(0) >0$ is small, under mild moment conditions and concentration bounds we establish the convergence rate $F(β^*)=O(F(0)^{1/3})$ as $F(0) \to 0$.

2604.09855 2026-04-14 cs.AI cs.CL cs.GT econ.GN q-fin.EC

Instructing LLMs to Negotiate using Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards

Shuze Daniel Liu, Claire Chen, Jiabao Sean Xiao, Lei Lei, Yuheng Zhang, Yisong Yue, David Simchi-Levi

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The recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established their potential as autonomous interactive agents. However, they often struggle in strategic games of incomplete information, such as bilateral price negotiation. In this paper, we investigate if Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can effectively teach LLMs to negotiate. Specifically, we explore the strategic behaviors that emerge during the learning process. We introduce a framework that trains a mid-sized buyer agent against a regulated LLM seller across a wide distribution of real-world products. By grounding reward signals directly in the maximization of economic surplus and strict adherence to private budget constraints, we reveal a novel four-phase strategic evolution. The agent progresses from naive bargaining to using aggressive starting prices, moves through a phase of deadlock, and ultimately develops sophisticated persuasive skills. Our results demonstrate that this verifiable training allows a 30B agent to significantly outperform frontier models over ten times its size in extracting surplus. Furthermore, the trained agent generalizes robustly to stronger counterparties unseen during training and remains effective even when facing hostile, adversarial seller personas.

2604.09821 2026-04-14 econ.EM q-fin.PM q-fin.ST

Global Persistence, Local Residual Structure: Forecasting Heterogeneous Investment Panels

Oleg Roshka

Comments 30 pages, 12 tables, 3 figures, 11 appendices. Replication package: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/harp-reproduction

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On a 93-actor quarterly panel mixing macro indicators, institutional data, and firm-level investment ratios, global factor augmentation degrades prediction for actor subgroups whose dynamics are misrepresented by the shared basis. A two-stage architecture -- global pooled AR(1) for shared persistence, block-specific local models for residual dynamics -- improves full-panel out-of-sample $R^2$ from 0.630 to 0.677 ($Δ= +0.047$, CI $[+0.036, +0.058]$, 10/10 windows, placebo $p \leq 0.001$). A held-out decade test -- block partition frozen on 2005--2014 data, evaluated on unseen 2015--2024 windows -- confirms the gain ($Δ= +0.050$, 10/10). Dropping the tech/health block eliminates roughly 72\% of the gain, making it the primary driver; rank-matched decomposition confirms this reflects a genuine cross-sector co-movement factor, not a rank-capacity artefact. Among the linear estimators tested, the gain is architectural rather than methodological; per-actor gradient boosting with the same block decomposition ($R^2 = 0.657$) does not close the gap, showing the advantage combines block-specific estimation with low-rank factor extraction. The gain arises only on heterogeneous mixed-type panels -- not on homogeneous firm-only panels -- identifying data-type heterogeneity as the operative condition. The result survives recursive macro normalisation ($+0.048$), a one-quarter filing-lag correction ($+0.038$, 10/10), and a stratified placebo that fixes the macro/firm data-type split and permutes only firm-sector assignments ($z = 7.25$, $p \leq 0.001$).

2604.09650 2026-04-14 q-fin.ST cs.AI cs.LG

Dynamic Forecasting and Temporal Feature Evolution of Stock Repurchases in Listed Companies Using Attention-Based Deep Temporal Networks

Xiang Ao, Jingxuan Zhang, Xinyu Zhao

Comments 16 pages, 8 figures

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Accurately predicting stock repurchases is crucial for quantitative investment and risk management, yet traditional static models fail to capture the complex temporal dependencies of corporate financial conditions. This paper proposes a dynamic early warning system integrating economic theory with deep temporal networks. Using Chinese A-share panel data (2014-2024), we employ a hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Attention-based LSTM to capture long- and short-term financial evolutionary patterns. Rolling-window cross-validation demonstrates our model significantly outperforms static baselines like Logistic Regression and XGBoost. Furthermore, utilizing Explainable AI (XAI), we reveal the temporal dynamics of repurchase decisions: prolonged "undervaluation" serves as the long-term underlying motive, while a sharp increase in "cash flow" acts as the decisive short-term trigger. This study provides a robust deep learning paradigm for financial forecasting and offers dynamic empirical support for classic corporate finance hypotheses.

2604.09623 2026-04-14 cs.CY econ.GN q-fin.EC

The Hourglass Revolution: A Theoretical Framework of AI's Impact on Organizational Structures in Developed and Emerging Markets

Krishna Kumar Balaraman, Venkat Ram Reddy Ganuthula

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This paper presents a theoretical framework examining how artificial intelligence (AI) transforms organizational structures, introducing an "hourglass" configuration that emerges as AI assumes traditional middle management functions. The analysis identifies three key mechanisms algorithmic coordination, structural fluidity, and hybrid agency that demonstrate how AI enables organizational forms transcending traditional structural boundaries. These mechanisms illustrate how AI enables new modes of organizing to go beyond existing structural boundaries. Drawing on institutional theory and digital transformation research, we examine how these mechanisms operate differently in developed and emerging markets, producing distinct patterns of structural transformation. Our framework offers three important theoretical contributions: (1) conceptualizing algorithmic coordination as a unique form of organizational integration, (2) explaining how structural fluidity allows organizations to achieve stability and adaptability at the same time, and (3) the theoretical argument that hybrid agency surpasses traditional, human centric forms of organizational capabilities. Our analysis shows that while the move to AI enabled strategies overall seems quite global, successful application will need to pay sufficient attention to the technological capabilities, cultural dimensions, and contexts of the market.

2603.21797 2026-04-14 cs.CR cs.ET econ.EM q-fin.ST

Connecting Distributed Ledgers: Surveying Novel Interoperability Solutions in On-chain Finance

Hasret Ozan Sevim

Comments 26 pages; conditionally accepted paper (not published yet); Journal: Financial Innovation; Journal URL: https://link.springer.com/journal/40854

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This paper emphasizes the critical role of interoperability in enabling efficient and secure communication for the fragmented distributed ledger ecosystem, particularly within on-chain finance. The purpose of this study is to streamline and accelerate empirical research on the intersection of cross-chain interoperability solutions and their impact within on-chain finance. The analysis examines the relationship between financial use and interoperability while comparing the properties of novel cross-chain interoperability protocols (LayerZero, Wormhole, Connext, Chainlink Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol, Circle Cross-chain Transfer Protocol, Hop Protocol, Across, Polkadot, and Cosmos), focusing on their design, mechanisms, consensus, and limitations. To encourage further empirical study, the paper proposes a set of network metrics and sample statistical models and provides a framework for evaluating the performance and financial implications of interoperability solutions.

2506.23341 2026-04-14 econ.GN q-fin.EC

The Network Effects of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism with a Quantitative Trade Model

Noemi Walczak, Kenan Huremović, Armando Rungi

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We investigate the economic and environmental impacts of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages. We quantify the general equilibrium responses of trade flows, expenditures, and emissions. To our knowledge, we are the first to endogenize both carbon prices and the CBAM price. We find that, once fully implemented, CBAM could reduce carbon emissions embodied in EU imports by 5.19%. In the absence of global production network adjustments, this reduction would be larger (8.84%), highlighting the substitution effects along global supply chains. At the same time, CBAM slightly increases EU Gross National Expenditure (GNE) through terms-of-trade effects and induces a reallocation of sourcing toward domestic and relatively cleaner inputs. For non-EU countries, the aggregate effects are modest: GNE declines by 0.02%, and emissions fall by 0.11%. Overall, our results underscore the importance of accounting for global supply chains when evaluating border carbon policies. We conclude that policies targeting supply-chain emissions are essential for capturing the full carbon footprint of production.

2506.11813 2026-04-14 q-fin.MF q-fin.TR

Optimal Execution under Liquidity Uncertainty

Etienne Chevalier, Yadh Hafsi, Vathana Ly Vath, Sergio Pulido

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英文摘要

We study an optimal execution strategy for purchasing a large block of shares over a fixed time horizon. The execution problem is subject to a general price impact that gradually dissipates due to market resilience. We allow for general limit order book shapes to characterize instantaneous market impact. To model the resilience dynamics, we introduce a stochastic process that governs the rate at which the deviation between the impacted and unaffected prices decays. This volume-effect process reflects fluctuations in market activity that drive the pace of liquidity replenishment. Additionally, we incorporate stochastic liquidity variations through a regime-switching Markov chain to capture abrupt shifts in market conditions. We study this singular control problem, where the trader optimally determines the timing and rate of purchases to minimize execution costs. The associated value function to this optimization problem is shown to satisfy a system of variational Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman inequalities. Moreover, we establish that it is the unique viscosity solution to this HJB system and study the analytical properties of the free boundary separating the execution and continuation regions. To illustrate our results, we present numerical examples under different limit-order book configurations, highlighting the interplay between price impact, resilience dynamics, and stochastic liquidity regimes in shaping the optimal execution strategy.

2504.12654 2026-04-14 econ.GN cs.AI q-fin.EC

The Paradox of Professional Input: How Expert Collaboration with AI Systems Shapes Their Future Value

Venkat Ram Reddy Ganuthula, Krishna Kumar Balaraman

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英文摘要

This perspective paper examines a fundamental paradox in the relationship between professional expertise and artificial intelligence: as domain experts increasingly collaborate with AI systems by externalizing their implicit knowledge, they potentially accelerate the automation of their own expertise. Through analysis of multiple professional contexts, we identify emerging patterns in human-AI collaboration and propose frameworks for professionals to navigate this evolving landscape. Drawing on research in knowledge management, expertise studies, human-computer interaction, and labor economics, we develop a nuanced understanding of how professional value may be preserved and transformed in an era of increasingly capable AI systems. Our analysis suggests that while the externalization of tacit knowledge presents certain risks to traditional professional roles, it also creates opportunities for the evolution of expertise and the emergence of new forms of professional value. We conclude with implications for professional education, organizational design, and policy development that can help ensure the codification of expert knowledge enhances rather than diminishes the value of human expertise.

2503.00039 2026-04-14 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Measure of Morality: A Mathematical Theory of Egalitarian Ethics

Shuang Wei

Comments Fix the errors in the proofs of the last version, and also add more counterexamples to the previously established results in the literature

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英文摘要

This paper develops a rigorous mathematical framework for egalitarian ethics by integrating formal tools from economics and mathematics. We motivate the formalism by investigating the limitations of conventional informal approaches by constructing examples such as probabilistic variant of the trolley dilemma and comparisons of unequal distributions. Our formal model, based on canonical welfare economics, simultaneously accounts for total utility and the distribution of outcomes. The analysis reveals deficiencies in traditional statistical measures and establishes impossibility theorems for rank-weighted approaches. We derive representation theorems that axiomatize key inequality measures including the Gini coefficient and a generalized Atkinson index, providing a coherent, axiomatic foundation for normative philosophy.