Item nonresponse to financial questions is a persistent source of survey error, especially in interviewer-administered surveys. We examine whether interviewers' expectations about respondents' willingness to report income are associated with actual item responses to income and asset questions in Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Using data from 41,934 respondents in 12 countries, linked to interviewer survey and roster information, we analyze responses to four financial items with substantial nonresponse. We compare three approaches to handling missing covariates: complete-case analysis, multiple imputation (fill-in methods), and a generalized missing-indicator framework with information-criterion-based model averaging. Across most specifications, respondents interviewed by interviewers with higher expected income response rates are more likely to provide financial information. However, model averaging does not yield clear gains over simpler approaches. The results suggest that interviewer expectations contain useful information for understanding and modeling item nonresponse to sensitive financial items, with potential implications for interviewer training and survey fieldwork design.

The long-run convergence of developing economies toward advanced countries exhibits robust empirical regularities, yet the mechanisms underlying technological diffusion remain insufficiently specified in standard growth models. In this paper, we extend the neoclassical framework by introducing a micro-founded mechanism of technological transfer as a driver of total factor productivity. Rather than treating technological progress as exogenous or purely innovation-driven, we model productivity growth as a process of adopting existing technologies from the global frontier. The diffusion process is described using a herding-type interaction mechanism, in which agents transition from non-adopters to adopters under the combined influence of individual incentives and peer effects. This approach yields a tractable aggregate representation of TFP dynamics characterized by nonlinear convergence toward a moving technological frontier. We derive an explicit analytical solution and provide an interpretation of model parameters in terms of initial productivity, convergence limits, and diffusion speed. The model is evaluated using OECD productivity data for Central and Eastern European economies.

We propose a novel procedure for estimating and conducting inference on average marginal effects in partially linear instrumental regressions using Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space methods. Our procedure relies on a single regularization parameter. We obtain the consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimator. Since the variance of the limiting distribution has a complex analytical form, we propose a Bayesian bootstrap method to conduct inference and establish its validity. Our procedure is easy to implement and exhibits good finite-sample performance in simulations. Three empirical applications illustrate its implementation on real data, showing that it yields economically meaningful results.

This paper develops a political-economy theory of statehood without capacity. I argue that under specific institutional and geopolitical conditions, a polity can become trapped in an equilibrium of nominal statehood: a state in which claims to sovereignty, external recognition, and symbolic legitimacy persist or even strengthen while the coercive, fiscal, administrative, and legal capacities required for effective statehood remain weak. The mechanism is driven by three forces. First, fragmented elites may privately benefit from preserving autonomous control, patronage, and localized rent extraction rather than consolidating authority into a unified state. Second, externally mediated transfers can reduce the immediate costs of institutional non-consolidation and thereby stabilize a low-capacity equilibrium. Third, international recognition and symbolic endorsement may be only weakly conditioned on domestic administrative performance, allowing recognition capital to accumulate more rapidly than capacity capital. The theory generates a dynamic divergence between juridical or symbolic statehood and effective statehood, with implications for investment, fiscal fragility, corruption, and vulnerability to conflict shocks. The paper derives testable predictions and then interprets Palestine as a flagship application of the broader mechanism. The central implication is that statehood is not only a question of recognition or territorial claim but an equilibrium outcome of institutional consolidation. Where the incentives to consolidate remain weak, sovereignty may be asserted without becoming viable.

We model a competitive market where AI agents buy answers from upstream generative models and resell them to users who differ in how much they value accuracy and in how much they fear hallucinations. Agents can privately exert effort for costly verification to lower hallucination risks. Since interactions halt in the event of a hallucination, the threat of losing future rents disciplines effort. A unique reputational equilibrium exists under nontrivial discounting. The equilibrium effort, and thus the price, increases with the share of users who have high accuracy concerns, implying that hallucination-sensitive sectors, such as law and medicine, endogenously lead to more serious verification efforts in agentic AI markets.

In this work we introduce a unit averaging procedure to efficiently recover unit-specific parameters in a heterogeneous panel model. The procedure consists in estimating the parameter of a given unit using a weighted average of all the unit-specific parameter estimators in the panel. The weights of the average are determined by minimizing an MSE criterion we derive. We analyze the properties of the resulting minimum MSE unit averaging estimator in a local heterogeneity framework inspired by the literature on frequentist model averaging, and we derive the local asymptotic distribution of the estimator and the corresponding weights. The benefits of the procedure are showcased with an application to forecasting unemployment rates for a panel of German regions.

This paper studies a finite reversible lumpable Markov chain for which relaxed spectral compression yields a larger determinant than partition-constrained compression. For a symmetric six-state lumpable chain and the positive operator $T=P^2$, I compare the relaxed benchmark \begin{equation*} \mathfrak D^{\mathrm{rel}}_3(T):=\sup_{U^*U=I_3}\det(U^*TU) \end{equation*} and the partition-constrained benchmark \begin{equation*} \sup_{\mathcal A\,\mathrm{3\text{-}partition}}\det Q_{\mathcal A}(T), \qquad Q_{\mathcal A}(T)=H_{\mathcal A}^*TH_{\mathcal A}. \end{equation*} Here the partition-constrained benchmark is the compression induced by normalized indicator vectors of genuine partitions of the state space. I derive closed formulas for the two analytically central partition families, prove strict upper bounds for both in a local-mode-dominated regime, and combine these bounds with an exhaustive enumeration of all $90$ partitions into three nonempty cells in an explicit six-state model. For this model, one obtains a strict global gap: \begin{equation*} \sup_{\mathcal A}\det Q_{\mathcal A}(T)<\mathfrak D^{\mathrm{rel}}_3(T). \end{equation*} Thus, in this model, indicator-based partition frames are strictly weaker than relaxed orthonormal frames even after global partition-constrained optimization.

Variable-length Markov chains on finite quivers provide a natural framework for context-dependent stochastic growth under incidence constraints. I study quiver-valued variable-length Markov chains observed through finite boundary windows and develop a first-order theory of visible-depth identifiability via stationary visible one-step transition laws and their restricted differentials on prescribed tangent blocks. For visible depth $m$, the main object is the stationary one-step informative map $q_{\mathcal{Q}}^{(m)}$. In the edge-homogeneous regime, once the local visible support is fixed and the representation hypothesis holds, all admissible visible depths encode the same edge-level extension law and hence have the same first-order rank. In the exact-depth regime of context length $r$, the depth-$r$ boundary process is the canonical finite-state Markov chain, smaller visible windows are deterministic truncations, and every coarser informative map factors $C^1$-smoothly through the depth-$r$ informative map on the relevant affine transition-array neighborhood. Hence rank cannot increase beyond depth $r$. After quotienting a tangent block by directions already invisible at depth $r$, I characterize strict coarse-depth loss exactly by coarse rank deficiency, equivalently by strict rank drop from depth $r$ to depth $m$ on the original block. I also give subspace-based and global selected-coordinate criteria, a global one-coordinate branching criterion, and an explicit depth-two example. Under full fine-depth rank and strict coordinate-rank loss at every smaller depth, a global coordinate-rank theorem yields $m_*(T,θ_0)=r$. Reduced local coordinates remove stochastic redundancies, first-order criteria are invariant under $C^1$ reparameterization, and the statistical and LAN consequences remain conditional on additional estimation and likelihood-level hypotheses.

Empirical researchers increasingly use upstream machine-learning (ML) methods to construct proxies for latent target variables from complex, unstructured data. A naive plug-in use of such proxies in downstream econometric models, however, can lead to biased estimation and invalid inference. This paper develops a framework for partial identification and inference in general moment models with ML-generated proxies. Our approach does not require restrictive assumptions on the upstream ML procedure, such as consistency or known convergence rates, nor does it require a complete validation sample containing all variables used in the downstream analysis. Instead, we assume access to two datasets: a downstream sample containing observed covariates and the proxy, and an auxiliary validation sample containing joint observations on the proxy and its target variable. We treat the proxy as a linking variable between these two samples, rather than as a literal noisy substitute for the latent target variable. Building on this idea, we develop a sharp identification strategy based on an unconditional optimal transport characterization and an inference procedure that controls asymptotic size using analytical critical values without resampling. Monte Carlo simulations show reliable size control and informative confidence sets across a range of predictive-accuracy scenarios.

I formulate an entropy-rate maximization problem at the observable level for stochastic processes observed through an information-reducing observation map. For a visible stationary law, the map determines an observational fiber of hidden stationary laws generating that law. In the finite-state finite-memory setting, retained visible constraints determine a feasible class of stationary $(r+1)$-block laws, and the entropy maximizer is defined as the entropy-rate maximizer on this class. The paper formulates entropy-rate maximization on feasible classes induced by partial observability and develops a structural theory for the resulting maximizer. I prove existence and uniqueness of the maximizer, with uniqueness under a fixed-context-marginal hypothesis and, more generally, via a strict-concavity characterization by row proportionality. Two global characterization regimes are central: a fixed one-point marginal yields the i.i.d. maximizer, and a fixed $r$-block law yields the $(r-1)$-step Markov extension. The gap functional equals a conditional mutual information and vanishes exactly at the maximizing completion. I also derive optimality conditions, local geometry of the maximizer, a latent random-mapping realization that leaves the visible law unchanged, and a local empirical consistency theorem, and illustrate the framework by an aliased hidden-state example.

While climate-induced population migration has received rising attention, the role played by human climate endeavors remains underexplored. Here, we combine machine learning with attribution mapping to analyze the impacts of 4,713 heat-related policies (HPs) on 11,177 migration flows between U.S. counties. We find that heat adaptation policies (APs) and heat mitigation policies (MPs) have significant and opposing impacts on internal migration: APs reduce out-migration, while MPs increase it. These policies have heterogeneous effects on migration among policy types. Behavioral and cultural MPs at origins lead to a 0.24%-0.68% (95% confidence interval) increase in annual outflows per policy, whereas behavioral and cultural APs at destinations elevate outflows of origins by 0.11%-1.55% (95% confidence interval). Migration patterns are nonlinearly moderated by income, ageing, education, and racial diversity of both origin and destination counties. Ageing rates have the most noticeable U-shaped relationship in shaping migration responses to behavioral and cultural MPs at origins, and inverted U-shapes for institutional MPs at origins and nature-based MPs at destinations. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers on how HPs influence migration as global warming and policy interventions persist.

We develop a high-precision classifier to measure artificial intelligence (AI) patents by fine-tuning PatentSBERTa on manually labeled data from the USPTO's AI Patent Dataset. Our classifier substantially improves the existing USPTO approach, achieving 97.0% precision, 91.3% recall, and a 94.0% F1 score, and it generalizes well to Chinese patents based on citation and lexical validation. Applying it to granted U.S. patents (1976-2023) and Chinese patents (2010-2023), we document rapid growth in AI patenting in both countries and broad convergence in AI patenting intensity and subfield composition, even as China surpasses the United States in recent annual patent counts. The organization of AI innovation nevertheless differs sharply: U.S. AI patenting is concentrated among large private incumbents and established hubs, whereas Chinese AI patenting is more geographically diffuse and institutionally diverse, with larger roles for universities and state-owned enterprises. For listed firms, AI patents command a robust market-value premium in both countries. Cross-border citations show continued technological interdependence rather than decoupling, with Chinese AI inventors relying more heavily on U.S. frontier knowledge than vice versa.

Online platforms where volunteers answer each other's questions are important sources of knowledge, yet participation is declining. We ran a pre-registered experiment on Stack Overflow, one of the largest Q&A communities for software development (N = 22,856), randomly assigning newly posted questions to receive an anonymous upvote. Within four weeks, treated users were 6.3% more likely to ask another question and 12.9% more likely to answer someone else's question. A second upvote produced no additional effect. The effect on answering was larger, more persistent, and still significant at twelve weeks. Next, we examine how much of these effects are due to algorithmic amplification, since upvotes also raise a question's rank and visibility. Algorithmic amplification is not important for the effect on asking additional questions, but it matters a lot for the effect on answering other questions. The increase in visibility increases the probability that another user provides an answer, and that experience appears to shift the poster toward broader community participation.

AI agents increasingly operate in multi-agent environments where outcomes depend on coordination. We distinguish primary algorithmic monoculture -- baseline action similarity -- from strategic algorithmic monoculture, whereby agents adjust similarity in response to incentives. We implement a simple experimental design that cleanly separates these forces, and deploy it on human and large language model (LLM) subjects. LLMs exhibit high levels of baseline similarity (primary monoculture) and, like humans, they regulate it in response to coordination incentives (strategic monoculture). While LLMs coordinate extremely well on similar actions, they lag behind humans in sustaining heterogeneity when divergence is rewarded.

McGranaghan, Nielsen, O'Donoghue, Somerville, and Sprenger [2024] show that standard paired choice tests for the common ratio effect are structurally biased when choice is stochastic, proposing valuation tests as a robust alternative. Using valuation tests, they find no systematic evidence for the common ratio effect, seemingly overturning much of the extant literature. We evaluate this conclusion in light of stochastic choice theory. We argue that valuation tests are inherently biased and lack predictive power under standard expected utility assumptions. In contrast, we advocate for a ``strong'' paired choice test, proving it remains robustly unbiased across common models of stochastic choice. Applying this strong test to existing experimental data, we find that the common ratio effect remains highly prevalent.

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world applications, unmeasured confounding often persists. In this article, we propose a novel framework for the identification of average dose-response functions using instrumental variables, thereby mitigating bias induced by unobserved confounders. We introduce the concept of a uniform regular weighting function and consider covering the treatment space with a finite collection of open sets. On each of these sets, such a weighting function exists, allowing us to identify the average dose-response function locally within the corresponding region. For estimation, we propose an augmented inverse probability weighted score for continuous treatments with instrumental variables under a debiased machine learning framework, and provide practical guidance to adaptively establish regular weighting functions from the data. We further establish the asymptotic properties when the average dose-response function is estimated via kernel regression or empirical risk minimization. Finally, we conduct both simulation and empirical studies to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed methods.

The maximum score estimator of Manski (1975) provides an elegant approach to estimate slope coefficient in binary choice models without requiring parametric assumptions on the error distribution. However, under i.i.d. sampling, it admits a non-Gaussian limiting distribution and exhibits cube-root asymptotics, which complicates statistical inference. We show that, under multiway dependence, the maximum score estimator attains asymptotic normality at a parametric rate. We obtain this surprising result through the development of a general M-estimation theory that accommodates non-smooth objective functions under multiway dependence. We further propose and establish the validity of a bootstrap procedure for inference.

We describe a new family of coupling designs, extending the basic principle of stratified randomization to experiments with continuous, constrained multivariate, text/image and other irregular treatment spaces. Our approach is to first match units into homogeneous groups, then use Monte Carlo coupling techniques to assign within-group treatments that are highly dispersed over the treatment space. We show that ensuring similar experimental units receive highly dissimilar treatments generically improves estimation efficiency. In particular, the efficiency gains from a coupling design are proportional to the product of dispersion and match quality, where dispersion measures how spread out the treatment assignments are under a given coupling relative to independent randomization. We develop a new spectral analysis, revealing how efficiency depends on a match between the smoothness and shape of the estimator's influence function and the principal directions of a given coupling. We illustrate how coupling designs work in practice using a cash transfer experiment in development economics and a discrete-choice experiment in two-sided marketplaces.

The recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established their potential as autonomous interactive agents. However, they often struggle in strategic games of incomplete information, such as bilateral price negotiation. In this paper, we investigate if Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can effectively teach LLMs to negotiate. Specifically, we explore the strategic behaviors that emerge during the learning process. We introduce a framework that trains a mid-sized buyer agent against a regulated LLM seller across a wide distribution of real-world products. By grounding reward signals directly in the maximization of economic surplus and strict adherence to private budget constraints, we reveal a novel four-phase strategic evolution. The agent progresses from naive bargaining to using aggressive starting prices, moves through a phase of deadlock, and ultimately develops sophisticated persuasive skills. Our results demonstrate that this verifiable training allows a 30B agent to significantly outperform frontier models over ten times its size in extracting surplus. Furthermore, the trained agent generalizes robustly to stronger counterparties unseen during training and remains effective even when facing hostile, adversarial seller personas.

On a 93-actor quarterly panel mixing macro indicators, institutional data, and firm-level investment ratios, global factor augmentation degrades prediction for actor subgroups whose dynamics are misrepresented by the shared basis. A two-stage architecture -- global pooled AR(1) for shared persistence, block-specific local models for residual dynamics -- improves full-panel out-of-sample $R^2$ from 0.630 to 0.677 ($Δ= +0.047$, CI $[+0.036, +0.058]$, 10/10 windows, placebo $p \leq 0.001$). A held-out decade test -- block partition frozen on 2005--2014 data, evaluated on unseen 2015--2024 windows -- confirms the gain ($Δ= +0.050$, 10/10). Dropping the tech/health block eliminates roughly 72\% of the gain, making it the primary driver; rank-matched decomposition confirms this reflects a genuine cross-sector co-movement factor, not a rank-capacity artefact. Among the linear estimators tested, the gain is architectural rather than methodological; per-actor gradient boosting with the same block decomposition ($R^2 = 0.657$) does not close the gap, showing the advantage combines block-specific estimation with low-rank factor extraction. The gain arises only on heterogeneous mixed-type panels -- not on homogeneous firm-only panels -- identifying data-type heterogeneity as the operative condition. The result survives recursive macro normalisation ($+0.048$), a one-quarter filing-lag correction ($+0.038$, 10/10), and a stratified placebo that fixes the macro/firm data-type split and permutes only firm-sector assignments ($z = 7.25$, $p \leq 0.001$).

We develop the first general-purpose estimator for infinite-horizon dynamic discrete choice models whose estimation problem, after pre-computation, is unencumbered by large systems of linear equations -- either imposed as constraints, or embedded in the objective function. Our unnested fixed point (UFXP) and optimal unnested fixed point (OUFXP) estimators exploit a dual representation of Bellman's equation to separate the utility parameters from the dynamic programming fixed point. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of UFXP and OUFXP, as well as the efficiency of the latter. Our estimators enable researchers to model utility functions non-parametrically via flexible neural-network approximations.

This paper presents a theoretical framework examining how artificial intelligence (AI) transforms organizational structures, introducing an "hourglass" configuration that emerges as AI assumes traditional middle management functions. The analysis identifies three key mechanisms algorithmic coordination, structural fluidity, and hybrid agency that demonstrate how AI enables organizational forms transcending traditional structural boundaries. These mechanisms illustrate how AI enables new modes of organizing to go beyond existing structural boundaries. Drawing on institutional theory and digital transformation research, we examine how these mechanisms operate differently in developed and emerging markets, producing distinct patterns of structural transformation. Our framework offers three important theoretical contributions: (1) conceptualizing algorithmic coordination as a unique form of organizational integration, (2) explaining how structural fluidity allows organizations to achieve stability and adaptability at the same time, and (3) the theoretical argument that hybrid agency surpasses traditional, human centric forms of organizational capabilities. Our analysis shows that while the move to AI enabled strategies overall seems quite global, successful application will need to pay sufficient attention to the technological capabilities, cultural dimensions, and contexts of the market.

This paper emphasizes the critical role of interoperability in enabling efficient and secure communication for the fragmented distributed ledger ecosystem, particularly within on-chain finance. The purpose of this study is to streamline and accelerate empirical research on the intersection of cross-chain interoperability solutions and their impact within on-chain finance. The analysis examines the relationship between financial use and interoperability while comparing the properties of novel cross-chain interoperability protocols (LayerZero, Wormhole, Connext, Chainlink Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol, Circle Cross-chain Transfer Protocol, Hop Protocol, Across, Polkadot, and Cosmos), focusing on their design, mechanisms, consensus, and limitations. To encourage further empirical study, the paper proposes a set of network metrics and sample statistical models and provides a framework for evaluating the performance and financial implications of interoperability solutions.

Regimes routinely conceal acts of repression. We show that observed repression may be negatively correlated with total repression, consisting of both revealed and concealed acts. This distortion can generate perverse effects for policy interventions designed to reduce repression and complicates inference about the causes and consequences of repression. We develop a model in which regimes choose whether to conceal repression and activists decide whether to challenge the regime. We identify two measurement problems - one due to concealment and one to deterrence. We construct indices of repression that account for these problems and show how these indices can be expressed in terms of observable variables by leveraging equilibrium relationships. We then propose an empirical strategy to estimate these indices. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to Russia, estimating repression indices at a monthly frequency for 2020-2025.

The St. Petersburg paradox presents a longstanding challenge in decision theory: its classical expected value diverges, yet no correspondingly large finite stake is typically regarded as rational. Traditional responses introduce auxiliary assumptions, such as diminishing marginal utility, temporal discounting, or extended number systems. This paper explores a different approach based on a modified operation of addition defined over coarse-grained partitions of the underlying numerical scale. In this framework, exact values are grouped into ordered grains, each grain is assigned an internal representative, and addition proceeds by repeated projection to those representatives. On this basis, the paper defines coarse representative addition and coarse cell addition, and studies several of their structural properties, including absorption, inertness, and non-associativity. In particular, repeated additions may eventually cease to change the coarse state, a phenomenon called inertness. The paper then applies this framework heuristically to the St. Petersburg setting by considering a rescaled sequence corresponding to its equal expected increments, and shows that this sequence can become inert under a suitably chosen countable partition and representative map. The claim is not that the paradox is resolved within standard decision theory, nor that the classical expectation becomes finite in the ordinary probabilistic sense. Rather, the contribution is structural and heuristic: it exhibits an explicit mathematical mechanism through which a divergent reward structure may fail to produce unbounded growth once aggregation itself is made coarse. More broadly, the framework may be relevant to the study of bounded numerical cognition and behavioral models of aggregation.

We investigate the economic and environmental impacts of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages. We quantify the general equilibrium responses of trade flows, expenditures, and emissions. To our knowledge, we are the first to endogenize both carbon prices and the CBAM price. We find that, once fully implemented, CBAM could reduce carbon emissions embodied in EU imports by 5.19%. In the absence of global production network adjustments, this reduction would be larger (8.84%), highlighting the substitution effects along global supply chains. At the same time, CBAM slightly increases EU Gross National Expenditure (GNE) through terms-of-trade effects and induces a reallocation of sourcing toward domestic and relatively cleaner inputs. For non-EU countries, the aggregate effects are modest: GNE declines by 0.02%, and emissions fall by 0.11%. Overall, our results underscore the importance of accounting for global supply chains when evaluating border carbon policies. We conclude that policies targeting supply-chain emissions are essential for capturing the full carbon footprint of production.

A Ranked candidate voting method based on Phragmen's procedure is described that can be used to produce a top-down proportional candidate list. The method complies with the Droop proportionality criterion satisfied by Single Transferable Vote. It also complies with house monotonicity and coherence, which are the ranked-candidate analogs of the divisor methods properties of always avoiding the Alabama and New State paradoxes. The highest ranked candidate in the list is the Instant Runoff winner, which is in at least one Droop proportional set of N winners for all N.

This perspective paper examines a fundamental paradox in the relationship between professional expertise and artificial intelligence: as domain experts increasingly collaborate with AI systems by externalizing their implicit knowledge, they potentially accelerate the automation of their own expertise. Through analysis of multiple professional contexts, we identify emerging patterns in human-AI collaboration and propose frameworks for professionals to navigate this evolving landscape. Drawing on research in knowledge management, expertise studies, human-computer interaction, and labor economics, we develop a nuanced understanding of how professional value may be preserved and transformed in an era of increasingly capable AI systems. Our analysis suggests that while the externalization of tacit knowledge presents certain risks to traditional professional roles, it also creates opportunities for the evolution of expertise and the emergence of new forms of professional value. We conclude with implications for professional education, organizational design, and policy development that can help ensure the codification of expert knowledge enhances rather than diminishes the value of human expertise.

This paper develops a rigorous mathematical framework for egalitarian ethics by integrating formal tools from economics and mathematics. We motivate the formalism by investigating the limitations of conventional informal approaches by constructing examples such as probabilistic variant of the trolley dilemma and comparisons of unequal distributions. Our formal model, based on canonical welfare economics, simultaneously accounts for total utility and the distribution of outcomes. The analysis reveals deficiencies in traditional statistical measures and establishes impossibility theorems for rank-weighted approaches. We derive representation theorems that axiomatize key inequality measures including the Gini coefficient and a generalized Atkinson index, providing a coherent, axiomatic foundation for normative philosophy.

We study balanced exchange problems in which agents with responsive preferences are endowed with multiple indivisible objects and can trade without transfers (e.g. shift exchange, time-banking). Eliciting full preferences over bundles is infeasible, so mechanisms often rely solely on marginal preferences, that is, rankings of individual objects. We characterize when eliciting only marginal preferences is enough to unambiguously identify allocations that are efficient and individually rational in the sense that these properties hold with respect to any responsive preferences consistent with the elicited marginals. We parameterize domains of marginal preferences by which indifference classes can contain endowed and non-endowed objects. We show that the essentially unique maximal domain for which an unambiguously efficient and unambiguously individually rational marginal mechanism exists is trichotomous: agents rank objects in three tiers, with the bottom tier containing no endowed objects. We also consider incentives for truthful preference revelation. The maximal domain for which an efficient, individually rational, and strategy-proof mechanism exists is strongly trichotomous: agents rank objects in three tiers, with the bottom tier containing no endowed objects and the middle tier containing no non-endowed objects. The canonical marginal mechanism achieving our three desiderata on that domain is a serial dictatorship over individually rational allocations. When employed on the larger trichotomous domain, this mechanism still admits a weakly dominant strategy: reveal the top tier truthfully and omit non-endowed objects from the middle tier. We propose a family of gradual-revelation mechanisms that are also unambiguously efficient and individually rational on the trichotomous domain while providing better incentives for truthful revelation across all three tiers.