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2604.03502 2026-04-07 stat.ML cs.LG stat.ME

Nonparametric Regression Discontinuity Designs with Survival Outcomes

Maximilian Schuessler, Erik Sverdrup, Robert Tibshirani, Stefan Wager

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Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate the causal effect of treatments that are assigned based on a running variable crossing a threshold. Such threshold-based rules are ubiquitous in healthcare, where predictive and prognostic biomarkers frequently guide treatment decisions. However, standard RD estimators rely on complete outcome data, an assumption often violated in time-to-event analyses where censoring arises from loss to follow-up. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric approach that leverages doubly robust censoring corrections and can be paired with existing RD estimators. Our approach can handle multiple survival endpoints, long follow-up times, and covariate-dependent variation in survival and censoring. We discuss the relevance of our approach across multiple areas of applications and demonstrate its usefulness through simulations and the prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial where our new approach offers several advantages, including higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification. We have also developed an open-source software package, $\texttt{rdsurvival}$, for the $\texttt{R}$ language.

2604.03491 2026-04-07 eess.SY cs.CV cs.SY eess.SP

RAIN-FIT: Learning of Fitting Surfaces and Noise Distribution from Large Data Sets

Omar M. Sleem, Sahand Kiani, Constantino M. Lagoa

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This paper proposes a method for estimating a surface that contains a given set of points from noisy measurements. More precisely, by assuming that the surface is described by the zero set of a function in the span of a given set of features and a parametric description of the distribution of the noise, a computationally efficient method is described that estimates both the surface and the noise distribution parameters. In the provided examples, polynomial and sinusoidal basis functions were used. However, any chosen basis that satisfies the outlined conditions mentioned in the paper can be approximated as a combination of trigonometric, exponential, and/or polynomial terms, making the presented approach highly generalizable. The proposed algorithm exhibits linear computational complexity in the number of samples. Our approach requires no hyperparameter tuning or data preprocessing and effectively handles data in dimensions beyond 2D and 3D. The theoretical results demonstrating the convergence of the proposed algorithm have been provided. To highlight the performance of the proposed method, comprehensive numerical results are conducted, evaluating our method against state-of-the-art algorithms, including Poisson Reconstruction and the Neural Network-based Encoder-X, on 2D and 3D shapes. The results demonstrate the superiority of our method under the same conditions.

2604.03480 2026-04-07 q-bio.NC cs.AI cs.CL

Large Language Models Align with the Human Brain during Creative Thinking

Mete Ismayilzada, Simone A. Luchini, Abdulkadir Gokce, Badr AlKhamissi, Antoine Bosselut, Antonio Laverghetta, Lonneke van der Plas, Roger E. Beaty

Comments Under review

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Creative thinking is a fundamental aspect of human cognition, and divergent thinking-the capacity to generate novel and varied ideas-is widely regarded as its core generative engine. Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive performance on divergent thinking tests and prior work has shown that models with higher task performance tend to be more aligned to human brain activity. However, existing brain-LLM alignment studies have focused on passive, non-creative tasks. Here, we explore brain alignment during creative thinking using fMRI data from 170 participants performing the Alternate Uses Task (AUT). We extract representations from LLMs varying in size (270M-72B) and measure alignment to brain responses via Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA), targeting the creativity-related default mode and frontoparietal networks. We find that brain-LLM alignment scales with model size (default mode network only) and idea originality (both networks), with effects strongest early in the creative process. We further show that post-training objectives shape alignment in functionally selective ways: a creativity-optimized \texttt{Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct} preserves alignment with high-creativity neural responses while reducing alignment with low-creativity ones; a human behavior fine-tuned model elevates alignment with both; and a reasoning-trained variant shows the opposite pattern, suggesting chain-of-thought training steers representations away from creative neural geometry toward analytical processing. These results demonstrate that post-training objectives selectively reshape LLM representations relative to the neural geometry of human creative thought.

2604.03469 2026-04-07 quant-ph cs.LG

Recurrent Quantum Feature Maps for Reservoir Computing

Utkarsh Singh, Aaron Z. Goldberg, Christoph Simon, Khabat Heshami

Comments 11 pages, 13 figures

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Reservoir computing promises a fast method for handling large amounts of temporal data. This hinges on constructing a good reservoir--a dynamical system capable of transforming inputs into a high-dimensional representation while remembering properties of earlier data. In this work, we introduce a reservoir based on recurrent quantum feature maps where a fixed quantum circuit is reused to encode both current inputs and a classical feedback signal derived from previous outputs. We evaluate the model on the Mackey-Glass time-series prediction task using our recently introduced CP feature map, and find that it achieves lower mean squared error than standard classical baselines, including echo state networks and multilayer perceptrons, while maintaining compact circuit depth and qubit requirements. We further analyze memory capacity and show that the model effectively retains temporal information, consistent with its forecasting accuracy. Finally, we study the impact of realistic noise and find that performance is robust to several noise channels but remains sensitive to two-qubit gate errors, identifying a key limitation for near-term implementations.

2604.03459 2026-04-07 physics.ao-ph cs.LG

Physics-Constrained Adaptive Flow Matching for Climate Downscaling

Kevin Debeire, Aytaç Paçal, Pierre Gentine, Luis Medrano-Navarro, Nils Thuerey, Veronika Eyring

Comments submitted

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Regional climate information at kilometer scales is essential for assessing the impacts of climate change, but generating it with global climate models is too expensive due to their high computational costs. Machine learning models offer a fast alternative, yet they often violate basic physical laws and degrade when applied to climates outside of their training distribution. We present Physics-Constrained Adaptive Flow Matching (PC-AFM), a generative downscaling model that addresses both problems. Building on the Adaptive Flow Matching (AFM) model of Fotiadis et al. (2025) as our baseline, we add soft conservation constraints that keep the downscaled output consistent with the large-scale input for precipitation and humidity, and use gradient surgery via the ConFIG algorithm to prevent these constraints from interfering with the generative objective. We train the model on Central Europe climate data, evaluate it on a 10-time downscaling task (63km to 6.3km) over six variables (near-surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, surface pressure, and horizontal wind components) across a comprehensive set of metrics including bias, ensemble skill scores, power spectra, and conservation error, and test the generalization on two held-out climate regions. Within the training distribution, PC-AFM reduces conservation errors and improves ensemble calibration while matching the baseline on standard skill metrics. Outside the training distribution, where unconstrained models develop large systematic errors by extrapolating learned statistics, PC-AFM halves precipitation wet bias, reduces conservation error and improves extreme-quantile accuracy, all without any information about the target climate at inference time. These results indicate that physical consistency is a practical requirement for deploying generative downscaling models in real-world applications.

2604.03455 2026-04-07 cs.IR cs.CL cs.LG

Lightweight Query Routing for Adaptive RAG: A Baseline Study on RAGRouter-Bench

Prakhar Bansal, Shivangi Agarwal

Comments 5 pages, 3 tables

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Retrieval-Augmented Generation pipelines span a wide range of retrieval strategies that differ substantially in token cost and capability. Selecting the right strategy per query is a practical efficiency problem, yet no routing classifiers have been trained on RAGRouter-Bench \citep{wang2026ragrouterbench}, a recently released benchmark of $7,727$ queries spanning four knowledge domains, each annotated with one of three canonical query types: factual, reasoning, and summarization. We present the first systematic evaluation of lightweight classifier-based routing on this benchmark. Five classical classifiers are evaluated under three feature regimes, namely, TF-IDF, MiniLM sentence embeddings \citep{reimers2019sbert}, and hand-crafted structural features, yielding 15 classifier feature combinations. Our best configuration, TF-IDF with an SVM, achieves a macro-averaged F1 of $\mathbf{0.928}$ and an accuracy of $\mathbf{93.2\%}$, while simulating $\mathbf{28.1\%}$ token savings relative to always using the most expensive paradigm. Lexical TF-IDF features outperform semantic sentence embeddings by $3.1$ macro-F1 points, suggesting that surface keyword patterns are strong predictors of query-type complexity. Domain-level analysis reveals that medical queries are hardest to route and legal queries most tractable. These results establish a reproducible query-side baseline and highlight the gap that corpus-aware routing must close.

2604.03447 2026-04-07 cs.SE cs.AI

Measuring LLM Trust Allocation Across Conflicting Software Artifacts

Noshin Ulfat, Ahsanul Ameen Sabit, Soneya Binta Hossain

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LLM-based software engineering assistants fail not only by producing incorrect outputs, but also by allocating trust to the wrong artifact when code, documentation, and tests disagree. Existing evaluations focus mainly on downstream outcomes and therefore cannot reveal whether a model recognized degraded evidence, identified the unreliable source, or calibrated its trust across artifacts. We present TRACE (Trust Reasoning over Artifacts for Calibrated Evaluation), a framework that elicits structured artifact-level trust traces over Javadoc, method signatures, implementations, and test prefixes under blind perturbations. Using 22,339 valid traces from seven models on 456 curated Java method bundles, we evaluate per-artifact quality assessment, inconsistency detection, affected artifact attribution, and source prioritization. Across all models, quality penalties are largely localized to the perturbed artifact and increase with severity, but sensitivity is asymmetric across artifact types: documentation bugs induce a substantially larger heavy-to-subtle gap than implementation faults (0.152-0.253 vs. 0.049-0.123). Models detect explicit documentation bugs well (67-94%) and Javadoc and implementation contradictions at 50-91%, yet show a systematic blind spot when only the implementation drifts while the documentation remains plausible, with detection dropping by 7-42 percentage points. Confidence is poorly calibrated for six of seven models. These findings suggest that current LLMs are better at auditing natural-language specifications than at detecting subtle code-level drift, motivating explicit artifact-level trust reasoning before correctness-critical downstream use.

2604.03443 2026-04-07 cs.SE cs.AI cs.LG

Agile Story-Point Estimation: Is RAG a Better Way to Go?

Lamyea Maha, Tajmilur Rahman, Chanchal Roy

Journal ref ICPC 2026

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The sprint-based iterative approach in the Agile software development method allows continuous feedback and adaptation. One of the crucial Agile software development activities is the sprint planning session where developers estimate the effort required to complete tasks through a consensus-based estimation technique such as Planning Poker. In the Agile software development method, a common unit of measuring development effort is Story Point (SP) which is assigned to tasks to understand the complexity and development time needed to complete them. Despite the benefits of this process, it is an extremely time-consuming manual process. To mitigate this issue, in this study, we investigated if this manual process can be automated using Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) which comprises a "Retriever" and a "Generator". We applied two embedding models - bge-large-en-v1.5, and Sentence-Transformers' all-mpnet-base-v2 on 23 open-source software projects of varying sizes and examined four key aspects: 1) how retrieval hyper-parameters influence the performance, 2) whether estimation accuracy differs across different sizes of the projects, 3) whether embedding model choice affects accuracy, and 4) how the RAG-based approach compares to the existing baselines. Although the RAG-based approach outperformed the baseline models in several occasions, our results did not exhibit statistically significant differences in performance across the projects or across the embedding models. This highlights the need for further studies and refinement of the RAG, and model adaptation strategies for better accuracy in automatically estimating user stories.

2604.03425 2026-04-07 cs.CR cs.AI cs.DC

AEGIS: Scaling Long-Sequence Homomorphic Encrypted Transformer Inference via Hybrid Parallelism on Multi-GPU Systems

Zhaoting Gong, Ran Ran, Fan Yao, Wujie Wen

Comments Accepted at ICS 2026

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Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) enables privacy-preserving Transformer inference, but long-sequence encrypted Transformers quickly exceed single-GPU memory capacity because encoded weights are already large and encrypted activations grow rapidly with sequence length. Multi-GPU execution therefore becomes unavoidable, yet scaling remains challenging because communication is jointly induced by application-level aggregation and encryption-level RNS coupling. Existing approaches either synchronize between devices frequently or replicate encrypted tensors across devices, leading to excessive communication and latency. We present AEGIS, an Application-Encryption Guided Inference System for scalable long-sequence encrypted Transformer inference on multi-GPU platforms. AEGIS derives device placement from ciphertext dependencies jointly induced by Transformer dataflow and CKKS polynomial coupling, co-locating modulus-coherent and token-coherent data so that communication is introduced only when application dependencies require it, while reordering polynomial operators to overlap the remaining collectives with computation. On 2048-token inputs, AEGIS reduces inter-GPU communication by up to 57.9% in feed-forward networks and 81.3% in self-attention versus prior state-of-the-art designs. On four GPUs, it achieves up to 96.62% scaling efficiency, 3.86x end-to-end speedup, and 69.1% per-device memory reduction. These results establish coordinated application-encryption parallelism as a practical foundation for scalable homomorphic Transformer inference.

2604.03403 2026-04-07 cs.IR cs.CL

Align then Train: Efficient Retrieval Adapter Learning

Seiji Maekawa, Moin Aminnaseri, Pouya Pezeshkpour, Estevam Hruschka

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Dense retrieval systems increasingly need to handle complex queries. In many realistic settings, users express intent through long instructions or task-specific descriptions, while target documents remain relatively simple and static. This asymmetry creates a retrieval mismatch: understanding queries may require strong reasoning and instruction-following, whereas efficient document indexing favors lightweight encoders. Existing retrieval systems often address this mismatch by directly improving the embedding model, but fine-tuning large embedding models to better follow such instructions is computationally expensive, memory-intensive, and operationally burdensome. To address this challenge, we propose Efficient Retrieval Adapter (ERA), a label-efficient framework that trains retrieval adapters in two stages: self-supervised alignment and supervised adaptation. Inspired by the pre-training and supervised fine-tuning stages of LLMs, ERA first aligns the embedding spaces of a large query embedder and a lightweight document embedder, and then uses limited labeled data to adapt the query-side representation, bridging both the representation gap between embedding models and the semantic gap between complex queries and simple documents without re-indexing the corpus. Experiments on the MAIR benchmark, spanning 126 retrieval tasks across 6 domains, show that ERA improves retrieval in low-label settings, outperforms methods that rely on larger amounts of labeled data, and effectively combines stronger query embedders with weaker document embedders across domains.

2604.03391 2026-04-07 cs.SE cs.LG

SDVDiag: Using Context-Aware Causality Mining for the Diagnosis of Connected Vehicle Functions

Matthias Weiß, Falk Dettinger, Elias Detrois, Nasser Jazdi, Michael Weyrich

Comments 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to the VTC2026

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Real-world implementations of connected vehicle functions are spreading steadily, yet operating these functions reliably remains challenging due to their distributed nature and the complexity of the underlying cloud, edge, and networking infrastructure. Quick diagnosis of problems and understanding the error chains that lead to failures is essential for reducing downtime. However, diagnosing these systems is still largely performed manually, as automated analysis techniques are predominantly data-driven and struggle with hidden relationships and the integration of context information. This paper addresses this gap by introducing a multimodal approach that integrates human feedback and system-specific information into the causal analysis process. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback is employed to continuously train a causality mining model while incorporating expert knowledge. Additional modules leverage distributed tracing data to prune false-positive causal links and enable the injection of domain-specific relationships to further refine the causal graph.Evaluation is performed using an automated valet parking application operated in a connected vehicle test field. Results demonstrate a significant increase in precision from 14\% to 100\% for the detection of causal edges and improved system interpretability compared to purely data-driven approaches, highlighting the potential for system operators in the connected vehicle domain.

2604.03353 2026-04-07 eess.IV cs.CV

NeuralLVC: Neural Lossless Video Compression via Masked Diffusion with Temporal Conditioning

Tiberio Uricchio, Marco Bertini

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While neural lossless image compression has advanced significantly with learned entropy models, lossless video compression remains largely unexplored in the neural setting. We present NeuralLVC, a neural lossless video codec that combines masked diffusion with an I/P-frame architecture for exploiting temporal redundancy. Our I-frame model compresses individual frames using bijective linear tokenization that guarantees exact pixel reconstruction. The P-frame model compresses temporal differences between consecutive frames, conditioned on the previous decoded frame via a lightweight reference embedding that adds only 1.3% trainable parameters. Group-wise decoding enables controllable speed-compression trade-offs. Our codec is lossless in the input domain: for video, it reconstructs YUV420 planes exactly; for image evaluation, RGB channels are reconstructed exactly. Experiments on 9 Xiph CIF sequences show that NeuralLVC outperforms H.264 and H.265 lossless by a significant margin. We verify exact reconstruction through end-to-end encode-decode testing with arithmetic coding. These results suggest that masked diffusion with temporal conditioning is a promising direction for neural lossless video compression.

2604.03338 2026-04-07 econ.GN cs.AI cs.CY q-fin.EC

The Ideation Bottleneck: Decomposing the Quality Gap Between AI-Generated and Human Economics Research

Ning Li

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Autonomous AI systems can now generate complete economics research papers, but they substantially underperform human-authored publications in head-to-head comparisons. This paper decomposes the quality gap into two independent components: research idea quality and execution quality. Using a two-model ensemble of fine-tuned language models trained on publication decisions (Gong, Li, and Zhou, 2026) to evaluate idea quality and a comprehensive six-dimension rubric assessed by Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite -- the same model family used as the APE tournament judge, ensuring methodological consistency -- to evaluate execution quality, we analyze 953 economics papers -- 912 AI-generated papers from the APE project and 41 human papers published in the American Economic Review and AEJ: Economic Policy. The idea quality gap is large (Cohen's d = 2.23, p < 0.001), with human papers achieving 47.1% mean ensemble exceptional probability versus 16.5% for AI. The execution quality gap is also significant but smaller (d = 0.90, p < 0.001), with human papers scoring 4.38/5.0 versus 3.84. Idea quality accounts for approximately 71% of the overall quality difference, with execution contributing 29%. The largest execution weakness is mechanism analysis depth (d = 1.43); no significant difference is found on robustness. We document that 74% of AI papers employ difference-in-differences, and only 7 AI papers (0.8%) surpass the median human paper on both idea and execution quality simultaneously. The primary bottleneck to competitive AI-generated economics research remains ideation.

2604.03330 2026-04-07 cs.CR cs.AI

AICCE: AI Driven Compliance Checker Engine

Mohammad Wali Ur Rahman, Martin Manuel Lopez, Lamia Tasnim Mim, Carter Farthing, Julius Battle, Kathryn Buckley, Salim Hariri

Comments Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Artificial Intelligence

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For digital infrastructure to be safe, compatible, and standards-aligned, automated communication protocol compliance verification is crucial. Nevertheless, current rule-based systems are becoming less and less effective since they are unable to identify subtle or intricate non-compliance, which attackers frequently use to establish covert communication channels in IPv6 traffic. In order to automate IPv6 compliance verification, this paper presents the Artificial Intelligence Driven Compliance Checker Engine (AICCE), a novel generative system that combines dual-architecture reasoning and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Specification segments pertinent to each query can be efficiently retrieved thanks to the semantic encoding of protocol standards into a high-dimensional vector space. Based on this framework, AICCE offers two complementary pipelines: (i) Explainability Mode, which uses parallel LLM agents to render decisions and settle disputes through organized discussions to improve interpretability and robustness, and (ii) Script Execution Mode, which converts clauses into Python rules that can be executed quickly for dataset-wide verification. With the debate mechanism enhancing decision reliability in complicated scenarios and the script-based pipeline lowering per-sample latency, AICCE achieves accuracy and F1-scores of up to 99% when tested on IPv6 packet samples across sixteen cutting-edge generative models. By offering a scalable, auditable, and generalizable mechanism for identifying both routine and covert non-compliance in dynamic communication environments, our results show that AICCE overcomes the blind spots of conventional rule-based compliance checking systems.

2604.03323 2026-04-07 cs.AR cs.LG

InsightBoard: An Interactive Multi-Metric Visualization and Fairness Analysis Plugin for TensorBoard

Ray Zeyao Chen, Christan Grant

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Modern machine learning systems deployed in safety-critical domains require visibility not only into aggregate performance but also into how training dynamics affect subgroup fairness over time. Existing training dashboards primarily support single-metric monitoring and offer limited support for examining relationships between heterogeneous metrics or diagnosing subgroup disparities during training. We present InsightBoard, an interactive TensorBoard plugin that integrates synchronized multi-metric visualization with slice-based fairness diagnostics in a unified interface. InsightBoard enables practitioners to jointly inspect training dynamics, performance metrics, and subgroup disparities through linked multi-view plots, correlation analysis, and standard group fairness indicators computed over user-defined slices. Through case studies with YOLOX on the BDD100k dataset, we demonstrate that models achieving strong aggregate performance can still exhibit substantial demographic and environmental disparities that remain hidden under conventional monitoring. By making fairness diagnostics available during training, InsightBoard supports earlier, more informed model inspection without modifying existing training pipelines or introducing additional data stores.

2604.03312 2026-04-07 cs.AR cs.CY cs.LG

Computer Architecture's AlphaZero Moment: Automated Discovery in an Encircled World

Karthikeyan Sankaralingam

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The end of Moore's Law and Dennard scaling has fundamentally changed the economics of computer architecture. With transistor scaling delivering diminishing returns, architectural innovation is now the primary - and perhaps only - remaining lever for performance improvement. However, we argue that human-driven architecture research is fundamentally ill-suited for this new era. The architectural design space is vast (effectively infinite for practical purposes), yet human teams explore perhaps 50-100 designs per generation, sampling less than 0.001% of possibilities. This approach worked during the abundance era when Moore's Law provided a rising tide that lifted all designs. In the current scarcity paradigm, where every architecture must deliver 2X performance improvements using essentially the same transistor budget, systematic exploration becomes critical. We propose a concrete alternative: automated idea factories that generate and evaluate thousands of candidate architectures weekly through multi-tiered evaluation pipelines, learning from deployed telemetry data in a continuous feedback loop. Early results suggest that such systems can compress architectural design cycles from double-digit months to single-digit weeks by exploring orders of magnitude more candidates than any human team, and do it much faster. We predict that within 2 years, purely human-driven architecture research will be as obsolete as human chess players competing against engines.

2604.03304 2026-04-07 physics.chem-ph cond-mat.mtrl-sci cs.AI cs.CL cs.LG

Generative Chemical Language Models for Energetic Materials Discovery

Andrew Salij, R. Seaton Ullberg, Megan C. Davis, Marc J. Cawkwell, Christopher J. Snyder, Cristina Garcia Cardona, Ivana Matanovic, Wilton J. M. Kort-Kamp

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The discovery of new energetic materials remains a pressing challenge hindered by limited availability of high-quality data. To address this, we have developed generative molecular language models that have been pretrained on extensive chemical data and then fine-tuned with curated energetic materials datasets. This transfer-learning strategy extends the chemical language model capabilities beyond the pharmacological space in which they have been predominantly developed, offering a framework applicable to other data-spare discovery problems. Furthermore, we discuss the benefits of fragment-based molecular encodings for chemical language models, in particular in constructing synthetically accessible structures. Together, these advances provide a foundation for accelerating the design of next-generation energetic materials with demanding performance requirements.

2604.03303 2026-04-07 physics.ao-ph cs.AI

Downscaling weather forecasts from Low- to High-Resolution with Diffusion Models

Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Simon Lang, Martin Leutbecher, Baudouin Raoult, Gert Mertes, Florian Pinault, Aristofanis Tsiringakis, Pedro Maciel, Ana Prieto Nemesio, Jan Polster, Cathal O Brien, Matthew Chantry

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We introduce a probabilistic diffusion-based method for global atmospheric downscaling implemented within the Anemoi framework. The approach transforms low-resolution ensemble forecasts into high-resolution ensembles by learning the conditional distribution of finer-scale residuals, defined as the difference between the high-resolution fields and the interpolated low-resolution inputs. The system is trained on reforecast pairs from ECMWF IFS, using coarse fields at 100 km to reconstruct fine-scale variability at 30 km resolution. The bulk of the training focuses on recovering small-scale structures, while fine-tuning in high-noise regimes enables the generation of extremes. Evaluation against the medium-range IFS ensemble target shows that the model increases probabilistic skill (FCRPS) for surface variables, reproduces target power spectra at small scales, captures physically consistent multivariate relationships such as wind-pressure coupling, and generates extreme values consistent with those of the target ensemble in tropical cyclones.

2604.03300 2026-04-07 physics.ao-ph cs.AI

AIFS-COMPO: A Global Data-Driven Atmospheric Composition Forecasting System

Paula Harder, Johannes Flemming, Mihai Alexe, Gert Mertes, Baudouin Raoult, Matthew Chantry

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We introduce AIFS-COMPO, a skilful medium-range data-driven global forecasting system for aerosols and reactive gases. Building on the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS), AIFS-COMPO employs a transformer-based encoder-processor-decoder architecture to jointly model meteorological and atmospheric composition variables. The model is trained on Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, analysis, and forecast data to learn the coupled dynamics of weather, emissions, transport, and atmospheric chemistry. We evaluate AIFS-COMPO against a range of atmospheric composition observations and compare its performance with the operational CAMS global forecasting system IFS-COMPO. The results show that AIFS-COMPO achieves comparable or improved forecast skill for several key species while requiring only a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, the efficiency of the approach enables forecasts beyond the current operational horizon, demonstrating the potential of AI-based systems for fast and accurate global atmospheric composition prediction.

2604.03295 2026-04-07 cs.MA cs.AI

Scaling Teams or Scaling Time? Memory Enabled Lifelong Learning in LLM Multi-Agent Systems

Shanglin Wu, Yuyang Luo, Yueqing Liang, Kaiwen Shi, Yanfang Ye, Ali Payani, Kai Shu

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Large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems can scale along two distinct dimensions: by increasing the number of agents and by improving through accumulated experience over time. Although prior work has studied these dimensions separately, their interaction under realistic cost constraints remains unclear. In this paper, we introduce a conceptual scaling view of multi-agent systems that jointly considers team size and lifelong learning ability, and we study how memory design shares this landscape. To this end, we propose \textbf{LLMA-Mem}, a lifelong memory framework for LLM multi-agent systems under flexible memory topologies. We evaluate LLMA-Mem on \textsc{MultiAgentBench} across coding, research, and database environments. Empirically, LLMA-Mem consistently improves long-horizon performance over baselines while reducing cost. Our analysis further reveals a non-monotonic scaling landscape: larger teams do not always produce better long-term performance, and smaller teams can outperform larger ones when memory better supports the reuse of experience. These findings position memory design as a practical path for scaling multi-agent systems more effectively and more efficiently over time.

2604.03292 2026-04-07 physics.ao-ph cs.AI

Impact of geophysical fields on Deep Learning-based Lagrangian drift simulations

Daria Botvynko, Carlos Granero-Belinchon, Simon Van Gennip, Abdesslam Benzinou, Ronan Fablet

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We assess the influence of different Eulerian geophysical input fields on Lagrangian drift simulations using DriftNet, a learning-based method designed to simulate Lagrangian drift on the sea surface. Two experiments are conducted: a fully numerical experiment (Benchmark B1) and a real-world drifters-based experiment (Benchmark B2). Both experiments are performed in two regions with different ocean dynamics: North East Pacific and Gulf Stream regions. The performance of DrifNet is evaluated with three different metrics: separation distance between simulated and ground-truth trajectories, the normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation and the autocorrelation of Lagrangian velocities. In both regions, results from B1 show that combining assimilated sea surface currents (SSC) with fully observed sea surface height (SSH) leads to greatest improvement in trajectory simulation. This configuration reduces separation distance by over 50\% and significantly decreases normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation and metrics related to velocities autocorrelation functions compared to the baseline using SSC alone. On the other hand, the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) either alone or in combination with SSC generally degrades performance. In B2, using satellite-derived SSH, Ekman and winds velocities improves surface drifters trajectories simulation, particularly in the North East Pacific. While the satellite-derived SST in combination with reanalysis-based SSC configuration leads to better trajectories simulation in the Gulf Stream. Overall, we highlight the added value of combining multiple geophysical fields to improve Lagrangian drift simulation on both numerical and real-world experiments.

2604.03291 2026-04-07 cs.AR cs.AI

RAGnaroX: A Secure, Local-Hosted ChatOps Assistant Using Small Language Models

Benedikt Dornauer, Mircea-Cristian Racasan

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This paper introduces RAGnaroX, a resource-efficient ChatOps assistant that operates entirely on commodity hardware. Unlike existing solutions that often rely on external providers such as Azure or OpenAI, RAGnaroX offers a fully auditable, on-premise stack implemented in Rust. Its architecture integrates modular data ingestion, hybrid retrieval, and function calling, enabling flexible yet secure deployment. Our evaluation focuses on the RAG pipeline, with benchmarks conducted on the SQuAD (single-hop QA), MultiHopRAG (multi-hop QA), and MLQA (cross-lingual QA) datasets. Results show that RAGnaroX achieves competitive accuracy while maintaining strong resource efficiency, for example, reaching 0.90 context precision on single-hop questions with an average response time of 2.5 seconds per request. A replication package containing the tool, the demonstration video (https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=cDxfuEbcoM4), and all supporting materials are available at https://github.com/genius-itea/RAGnaroX.git.

2604.03289 2026-04-07 physics.ao-ph cs.AI physics.data-an

Toward Artificial Intelligence Enabled Earth System Coupling

Maria Kaselimi, Anna Belehaki

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Coupling constitutes a foundational mechanism in the Earth system, regulating the interconnected physical, chemical, and biological processes that link its spheres. This review examines how emerging artificial intelligence (AI) methods create new opportunities to enhance Earth system coupling and address long-standing limitations in multi-component models. Rather than surveying next-generation modelling efforts broadly, we focus specifically on how state-of-the-art AI techniques can strengthen cross-domain interactions, support more coherent multi-component representations, and enable progress toward unified Earth system frameworks. The scope extends beyond climate models to include any modelling system in which Earth spheres interact. We outline emerging opportunities, persistent limitations, and conceptual pathways through which AI may enhance physical consistency, interpretability, and integration across domains. In doing so, this review provides a structured foundation for understanding the role of AI in advancing coupled Earth system modelling.

2604.03282 2026-04-07 eess.SY cs.AI cs.SY

Customized User Plane Processing via Code Generating AI Agents for Next Generation Mobile Networks

Xiaowen Ma, Onur Ayan, Yunpu Ma, Xueli An

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Generative AI is envisioned to have a crucial impact on next generation mobile networking, making the sixth generation (6G) system considerably more autonomous, flexible, and adaptive than its predecessors. By leveraging their natural language processing and code generation capabilities, AI agents enable novel interactions and services between networks and vertical applications. A particularly promising and interesting use case is the customization of connectivity services for vertical applications by generating new customized processing blocks based on text-based service requests. More specifically, AI agents are able to generate code for a new function block that handles user plane traffic, allowing it to inspect and decode a protocol data unit (PDU) and perform specified actions as requested by the application. In this study, we investigate the code generation problem for generating such customized processing blocks on-demand. We evaluate various factors affecting the accuracy of the code generation process in this context, including model selection, prompt design, and the provision of a code template for the agent to utilize. Our findings indicate that AI agents are capable of generating such blocks with the desired behavior on-demand under suitable conditions. We believe that exploring the code generation for network-specific tasks is a very interesting problem for 6G and beyond, enabling networks to achieve a new level of customization by generating new capabilities on-demand.

2604.03280 2026-04-07 cs.MA cs.LG

Multi-Agent Training-free Urban Food Delivery System using Resilient UMST Network

Md Nahid Hasan, Vishwam Tiwari, Aditya Challa, Vaskar Raychoudhury, Snehanshu Saha

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英文摘要

Delivery systems have become a core part of urban life, supporting the demand for food, medicine, and other goods. Yet traditional logistics networks remain fragile, often struggling to adapt to road closures, accidents, and shifting demand. Online Food Delivery (OFD) platforms now represent a cornerstone of urban logistics, with the global market projected to grow to over 500 billion USD by 2030. Designing delivery networks that are efficient and resilient remains a major challenge: fully connected graphs provide flexibility but are computationally infeasible at scale, while single Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs) are efficient but easily disrupted. We propose the Union of Minimum Spanning Trees (UMST) approach to construct delivery networks that are sparse yet robust. UMST generates multiple MSTs through randomized edge perturbations and unites them, producing graphs with far fewer edges than fully connected networks while maintaining multiple alternative routes between delivery hotspots. Across multiple U.S. cities, UMST achieves 20--40$\times$ fewer edges than fully connected graphs while enabling substantial order bundling with 75--83% participation rates. Compared to learning-based baselines including MADDPG and Graph Neural Networks, UMST delivers competitive performance (88-96% success rates, 44-53% distance savings) without requiring training, achieving 30$\times$ faster execution while maintaining interpretable routing structures. Its combination of structural efficiency and operational flexibility offers a scalable and resilient foundation for urban delivery networks.

2604.03278 2026-04-07 eess.SY cs.AI cs.SY math.OC

Safe Decentralized Operation of EV Virtual Power Plant with Limited Network Visibility via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Chenghao Huang, Jiarong Fan, Weiqing Wang, Hao Wang

Comments The 2026 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, 7 pages including appendix

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英文摘要

As power systems advance toward net-zero targets, behind-the-meter renewables are driving rapid growth in distributed energy resources (DERs). Virtual power plants (VPPs) increasingly coordinate these resources to support power distribution network (PDN) operation, with EV charging stations (EVCSs) emerging as a key asset due to their strong impact on local voltages. However, in practice, VPPs must make operational decisions with only partial visibility of PDN states, relying on limited, aggregated information shared by the distribution system operator. This work proposes a safety-enhanced VPP framework for coordinating multiple EVCSs under such realistic information constraints to ensure voltage security while maintaining economic operation. We develop Transformer-assisted Lagrangian Multi-Agent Proximal Policy Optimization (TL-MAPPO), in which EVCS agents learn decentralized charging policies via centralized training with Lagrangian regularization to enforce voltage and demand-satisfaction constraints. A transformer-based embedding layer deployed on each EVCS agent captures temporal correlations among prices, loads, and charging demand to improve decision quality. Experiments on a realistic 33-bus PDN show that the proposed framework reduces voltage violations by approximately 45% and operational costs by approximately 10% compared to representative multi-agent DRL baselines, highlighting its potential for practical VPP deployment.

2604.03272 2026-04-07 q-fin.CP cs.AI cs.GT q-fin.GN

Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk: A Unified Model of Performative Prediction, Algorithmic Herding, and Cognitive Dependency in Financial Markets

Shuchen Meng, Xupeng Chen

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英文摘要

We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational expectations framework with endogenous adoption, we derive an equilibrium systemic risk coupling $r(ϕ) = ϕρβ/λ'(ϕ)$, where $ϕ$ is the AI adoption share, $ρ$ the algorithmic signal correlation, $β$ the performative feedback intensity, and $λ'(ϕ)$ the endogenous effective price impact. Because $λ'(ϕ)$ is decreasing in $ϕ$, the coupling is convex in adoption, implying that the systemic risk multiplier $M = (1 - r)^{-1}$ grows superlinearly as AI penetration increases. The model is developed in three layers. First, endogenous fragility: market depth is decreasing and convex in AI adoption. Second, embedding the convex coupling within a supermodular adoption game produces a saddle-node bifurcation into an algorithmic monoculture. Third, cognitive dependency as an endogenous state variable yields an impossibility theorem (hysteresis requires dynamics beyond static frameworks) and a channel necessity theorem (each channel is individually necessary). Empirical validation uses the complete universe of SEC Form 13F filings (99.5 million holdings, 10,957 institutional managers, 2013--2024) with a Bartik shift-share instrument (first-stage $F = 22.7$). The model implies tail-loss amplification of 18--54%, economically significant relative to Basel III countercyclical buffers.

2604.03266 2026-04-07 cs.MA cs.LG

Emergent Compositional Communication for Latent World Properties

Tomek Kaszyński

Comments 24 pages, 4 figures, 12 tables. Code: https://github.com/TomekKaszynski/emergent-physics-comm

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英文摘要

Can multi-agent communication pressure extract discrete, compositional representations of invisible physical properties from frozen video features? We show that agents communicating through a Gumbel-Softmax bottleneck with iterated learning develop positionally disentangled protocols for latent properties (elasticity, friction, mass ratio) without property labels or supervision on message structure. With 4 agents, 100% of 80 seeds converge to near-perfect compositionality (PosDis=0.999, holdout 98.3%). Controls confirm multi-agent structure -- not bandwidth or temporal coverage -- drives this effect. Causal intervention shows surgical property disruption (~15% drop on targeted property, <3% on others). A controlled backbone comparison reveals that the perceptual prior determines what is communicable: DINOv2 dominates on spatially-visible ramp physics (98.3% vs 95.1%), while V-JEPA 2 dominates on dynamics-only collision physics (87.4% vs 77.7%, d=2.74). Scale-matched (d=3.37) and frame-matched (d=6.53) controls attribute this gap entirely to video-native pretraining. The frozen protocol supports action-conditioned planning (91.5%) with counterfactual velocity reasoning (r=0.780). Validation on Physics 101 real camera footage confirms 85.6% mass-comparison accuracy on unseen objects, temporal dynamics contributing +11.2% beyond static appearance, agent-scaling compositionality replicating at 90% for 4 agents, and causal intervention extending to real video (d=1.87, p=0.022).

2604.03265 2026-04-07 cs.GL cs.CL cs.CY cs.DC

On the First Computer Science Research Paper in an Indian Language and the Future of Science in Indian Languages

Siddhartha Visveswara Jayanti

Comments 15 pages, some text in Telugu

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英文摘要

I describe my experience writing the first original, modern Computer Science research paper expressed entirely in an Indian language. The paper is in Telugu, a language with approximately 100 million speakers. The paper is in the field of distributed computing and it introduces a technique for proving epistemic logic based lower bounds for multiprocessor algorithms. A key hurdle to writing the paper was developing technical terminology for advanced computer science concepts, including those in algorithms, distributed computing, and discrete mathematics. I overcame this challenge by deriving and coining native language scientific terminology through the powerful, productive, Pāninian grammar of Samskrtam. The typesetting of the paper was an additional challenge, since mathematical typesetting in Telugu is underdeveloped. I overcame this problem by developing a Telugu XeLaTeX template, which I call TeluguTeX. Leveraging this experience of writing an original computer science research paper in an Indian language, I lay out a vision for how to ameliorate the state of scientific writing at all levels in Indic languages -- languages whose native speakers exceed one billion people -- through the further development of the Sanskrit technical lexicon and through technological internationalization.

2604.03262 2026-04-07 cs.CY cs.AI

AI Governance Control Stack for Operational Stability: Achieving Hardened Governance in AI Systems

Horatio Morgan

Comments 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. Research paper introducing an operational AI governance architecture aligned with emerging regulatory frameworks including the EU AI Act, ISO/IEC 42001, and the NIST AI Risk Management Framework

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英文摘要

Artificial intelligence systems are increasingly embedded in high-stakes decision environments, yet many governance approaches focus primarily on policy guidance rather than operational stability mechanisms. As AI deployments scale, organizations require governance architectures capable of maintaining reliable, auditable, and accountable behavior over time. This paper introduces the AI Governance Control Stack for Operational Stability, a layered governance architecture designed to ensure traceable and resilient AI system behavior. The proposed control stack integrates six complementary governance layers: system-of-record version governance, evidence-based verification, decision-time explainability logging, telemetry monitoring, model drift detection, and governance escalation. Together, these layers provide a structured mechanism for preserving governance integrity across the AI lifecycle while enabling organizations to detect instability, respond to emerging risks, and maintain regulatory accountability. The architecture aligns operational governance practices with emerging regulatory and standards frameworks, including the EU AI Act, ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management Systems, and the NIST AI Risk Management Framework. By combining explainability infrastructure with continuous monitoring and human oversight mechanisms, the governance control stack provides a practical blueprint for achieving hardened AI governance in complex enterprise environments. The paper contributes a conceptual governance architecture and a framework alignment analysis demonstrating how operational stability mechanisms can strengthen responsible AI implementation. The findings suggest that organizations must move beyond static policy frameworks toward integrated governance control systems capable of sustaining trustworthy AI operation in dynamic environments.