Scientific discovery is slowed by fragmented literature that requires excessive human effort to gather, analyze, and understand. AI tools, including autonomous summarization and question answering, have been developed to aid in understanding scientific literature. However, these tools lack the structured, multi-step approach necessary for extracting deep insights from scientific literature. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new possibilities for literature analysis, but remain unreliable due to hallucinations and incomplete extraction. We introduce Elhuyar, a multi-agent, human-in-the-loop system that integrates LLMs, structured AI, and human scientists to extract, analyze, and iteratively refine insights from scientific literature. The framework distributes tasks among specialized agents for filtering papers, extracting data, fitting models, and summarizing findings, with human oversight ensuring reliability. The system generates structured reports with extracted data, visualizations, model equations, and text summaries, enabling deeper inquiry through iterative refinement. Deployed in materials science, it analyzed literature on tungsten under helium-ion irradiation, showing experimentally correlated exponential helium bubble growth with irradiation dose and temperature, offering insight for plasma-facing materials (PFMs) in fusion reactors. This demonstrates how AI-assisted literature review can uncover scientific patterns and accelerate discovery.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) offer a principled formalism for planning under state and transition uncertainty. Despite advances made towards solving large POMDPs, obtaining performant policies under limited planning time remains a major challenge due to the curse of dimensionality and the curse of history. For many POMDP problems, the value of information (VOI) - the expected performance gain from reasoning about observations - varies over the belief space. We introduce a dynamic programming framework that exploits this structure by conditionally processing observations based on the value of information at each belief. Building on this framework, we propose Value of Information Monte Carlo planning (VOIMCP), a Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm that allocates computational effort more efficiently by selectively disregarding observation information when the VOI is low, avoiding unnecessary branching of observations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the near-optimality of our VOI reasoning framework and derive non-asymptotic convergence bounds for VOIMCP. Simulation evaluations demonstrate that VOIMCP outperforms baselines on several POMDP benchmarks.

Language Models (LMs) exhibit two distinct mechanisms for knowledge acquisition: in-weights learning (i.e., encoding information within the model weights) and in-context learning (ICL). Although these two modes offer complementary strengths, in-weights learning frequently struggles to facilitate deductive reasoning over the internalized knowledge. We characterize this limitation as a deficit in latent generalization, of which the reversal curse is one example. Conversely, in-context learning demonstrates highly robust latent generalization capabilities. To improve latent generalization from in-weights knowledge, prior approaches rely on train-time data augmentation, yet these techniques are task-specific, scale poorly, and fail to generalize to out-of-distribution knowledge. To overcome these shortcomings, this work studies how models can be taught to use test-time compute, or 'thinking', specifically to improve latent generalization. We use Reinforcement Learning (RL) from correctness feedback to train models to produce long chains-of-thought (CoTs) to improve latent generalization. Our experiments show that this thinking approach not only resolves many instances of latent generalization failures on in-distribution knowledge but also, unlike augmentation baselines, generalizes to new knowledge for which no RL was performed. Nevertheless, on pure reversal tasks, we find that thinking does not unlock direct knowledge inversion, but the generate-and-verify ability of thinking models enables them to get well above chance performance. The brittleness of factual self-verification means thinking models still remain well below the performance of in-context learning for this task. Overall, our results establish test-time thinking as a flexible and promising direction for improving the latent generalization of LMs.

Synonymy is a widespread yet puzzling linguistic phenomenon. Absolute synonyms theoretically should not exist, as they do not expand language's expressive potential. However, it was suggested that even if synonyms denote the same concept, they may reflect different perspectives or carry distinct cultural associations, claims that have rarely been tested quantitatively. In Hindi, prolonged contact with Persian produced many Perso-Arabic loanwords coexisting with their Sanskrit counterpart, forming numerous synonym pairs. This study investigates whether centuries after these borrowings appeared in the Subcontinent their origin can still be distinguished using distributional data alone and regardless of their semantic content. A Random Forest trained on word embeddings of Hindi synonyms successfully classified words by Sanskrit or Perso-Arabic origin, even when they were semantically unrelated, suggesting that usage patterns preserve traces of etymology. These findings provide quantitative evidence that context encodes etymological signals and that synonymy may reflect subtle but systematic distinctions linked to origin. They support the idea that synonymous words can offer different perspectives and that etymologically related words may form distinct conceptual subspaces, creating a new type of semantic frame shaped by historical origin. Overall, the results highlight the power of context in capturing nuanced distinctions beyond traditional semantic similarity.

Understanding and predicting object motion from egocentric video is fundamental to embodied perception and interaction. However, generating physically consistent 6DoF trajectories remains challenging due to occlusions, fast motion, and the lack of explicit physical reasoning in existing generative models. We present EgoFlow, a flow-matching framework that synthesizes realistic and physically plausible trajectories conditioned on multimodal egocentric observations. EgoFlow employs a hybrid Mamba-Transformer-Perceiver architecture to jointly model temporal dynamics, scene geometry, and semantic intent, while a gradient-guided inference process enforces differentiable physical constraints such as collision avoidance and motion smoothness. This combination yields coherent and controllable motion generation without post-hoc filtering or additional supervision. Experiments on real-world datasets HD-EPIC, EgoExo4D, and HOT3D show that EgoFlow outperforms diffusion-based and transformer baselines in accuracy, generalization, and physical realism, reducing collision rates by up to 79%, and strong generalization to unseen scenes. Our results highlight the promise of flow-based generative modeling for scalable and physically grounded egocentric motion understanding.

Thousands of diverse benchmarks have been developed to measure the quality of large language models (LLMs). Yet prior work has demonstrated that LLM performance is often sufficiently explained by a small set of latent factors, or abilities. This suggests the potential for more efficient and principled benchmarking, but it remains difficult to compare the quality of different methods. Motivated by predictive validity, we argue that the quality of a benchmarking framework should be grounded in how efficiently it enables the prediction of model performance on unseen tasks. To analyze this objective, we collect the "Wide-scale Item Level Dataset" (WILD), a dataset of item-model response pairs, comprising evaluations of 65 models on 109,564 unique items spanning 163 tasks drawn from 27 datasets. This dataset enables the first analysis of how different techniques can predict a model's performance on a large, diverse collection of unseen tasks under different budget constraints. We demonstrate that combining a modified multidimensional item response theory (IRT) model with adaptive item selection driven by optimal experimental design can predict performance on 112 held-out benchmark tasks with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 7%, and can do so after observing only 16 items. We further demonstrate that incorporating cost-aware discount factors into our selection criteria can reduce the total tokens needed to reach 7% MAE from 141,000 tokens to only 22,000, an 85% reduction in evaluation cost.

Vision-based policies have achieved a good performance in robotic manipulation due to the accessibility and richness of visual observations. However, purely visual sensing becomes insufficient in contact-rich and force-sensitive tasks where force/torque (F/T) signals provide critical information about contact dynamics, alignment, and interaction quality. Although various strategies have been proposed to integrate vision and F/T signals, including auxiliary prediction objectives, mixture-of-experts architectures, and contact-aware gating mechanisms, a comparison of these approaches remains lacking. In this work, we provide a comparison study of different F/T-vision integration strategies within diffusion-based manipulation policies. In addition, we propose an adaptive integration strategy that ignores F/T signals during non-contact phases while adaptively leveraging both vision and torque information during contact. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms the strongest baseline by 14% in success rate, highlighting the importance of contact-aware multimodal fusion for robotic manipulation.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test ($T^2$) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. $T^2$ modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@$k$ modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from $T^2$ are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that $T^2$ scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making $T^2$ scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

This report is part of the Qumphy project (22HLT01 Qumphy) that is funded by the European Union and is dedicated to the development of measures to quantify the uncertainties associated with Machine Learning algorithms applied to medical problems, in particular the analysis and processing of Photoplethysmography (PPG) signals. In this report, a list of six medical problems that are related to PPG signals and serve as Benchmark Problems is given. Suitable Benchmark datasets and their usage are described also.

Wearable fingertip haptic devices are critical for realistic interaction in virtual reality, augmented reality, and teleoperation, yet existing approaches struggle to simultaneously achieve adequate tactile output, low mass, simple fabrication, and untethered portability. Here we show that fabric-based pneumatic actuation can address this gap. Our device comprises four pneumatic chambers fabricated from thermoplastic polyurethane-coated fabric via computer numerical control heat-sealing, yielding a soft, conformable interface weighing 2.1 g that operates untethered with a wrist-mounted control unit. Mechanical and dynamic characterization confirms that the fabric actuators produce sufficient force, displacement, and bandwidth for fingertip tactile rendering. A psychophysical study with 15 participants demonstrates classification accuracy exceeding 90% across three distinct tactile modes -- contact configuration, directional sliding, and vibrotactile frequency. These findings establish fabric-based pneumatic actuation as a viable technology route for lightweight, low-cost, and multimodal fingertip haptic interfaces.

Recent advancements in open-vocabulary 3D scene understanding heavily rely on 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) to register vision-language features into 3D space. However, we identify two critical limitations in these approaches: the spatial ambiguity arising from unstructured, overlapping Gaussians which necessitates probabilistic feature registration, and the multi-level semantic ambiguity caused by pooling features over object-level masks, which dilutes fine-grained details. To address these challenges, we present a novel framework that leverages Sparse Voxel Rasterization (SVRaster) as a structured, disjoint geometry representation. By regularizing SVRaster with monocular depth and normal priors, we establish a stable geometric foundation. This enables a deterministic, confidence-aware feature registration process and suppresses the semantic bleeding artifact common in 3DGS. Furthermore, we resolve multi-level ambiguity by exploiting the emerging dense alignment properties of foundation model AM-RADIO, avoiding the computational overhead of hierarchical training methods. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on Open Vocabulary 3D Object Retrieval and Point Cloud Understanding benchmarks, particularly excelling on fine-grained queries where registration methods typically fail.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) has received increasing attention for learning policies from previously collected data without interaction with the real environment, which is particularly important in high-stakes applications. While a growing body of work has developed offline RL algorithms, these methods often rely on restrictive assumptions about data coverage and suffer from distribution shift. In this paper, we propose a residuals-based offline RL framework for general state and action spaces. Specifically, we define a residuals-based Bellman optimality operator that explicitly incorporates estimation error in learning transition dynamics into policy optimization by leveraging empirical residuals. We show that this Bellman operator is a contraction mapping and identify conditions under which its fixed point is asymptotically optimal and possesses finite-sample guarantees. We further develop a residuals-based offline deep Q-learning (DQN) algorithm. Using a stochastic CartPole environment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our residuals-based offline DQN algorithm.

Surgical action automation has progressed rapidly toward achieving surgeon-like dexterous control, driven primarily by advances in learning from demonstration and vision-language-action models. While these have demonstrated success in table-top experiments, translating them to clinical deployment remains challenging: current methods offer limited predictability on where instruments will interact on tissue surfaces and lack explicit conditioning inputs to enforce tool-action-specific safe interaction regions. Addressing this gap, we introduce AffordTissue, a multimodal framework for predicting tool-action specific tissue affordance regions as dense heatmaps during cholecystectomy. Our approach combines a temporal vision encoder capturing tool motion and tissue dynamics across multiple viewpoints, language conditioning enabling generalization across diverse instrument-action pairs, and a DiT-style decoder for dense affordance prediction. We establish the first tissue affordance benchmark by curating and annotating 15,638 video clips across 103 cholecystectomy procedures, covering six unique tool-action pairs involving four instruments (hook, grasper, scissors, clipper) and their associated tasks: dissection, grasping, clipping, and cutting. Experiments demonstrate substantial improvement over vision-language model baselines (20.6 px ASSD vs. 60.2 px for Molmo-VLM), showing that our task-specific architecture outperforms large-scale foundation models for dense surgical affordance prediction. By predicting tool-action specific tissue affordance regions, AffordTissue provides explicit spatial reasoning for safe surgical automation, potentially unlocking explicit policy guidance toward appropriate tissue regions and early safe stop when instruments deviate outside predicted safe zones.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes decision-making contexts. While prior work has shown that LLMs exhibit cognitive biases behaviorally, whether these biases correspond to identifiable internal representations and can be mitigated through targeted intervention remains an open question. We define LLM cognitive bias as systematic, reproducible deviations from correct answers in tasks with computable ground-truth baselines, and introduce LLM CogBias, a benchmark organized around four families of cognitive biases: Judgment, Information Processing, Social, and Response. We evaluate three LLMs and find that cognitive biases emerge systematically across all four families, with magnitudes and debiasing responses that are strongly family-dependent: prompt-level debiasing substantially reduces Response biases but backfires for Judgment biases. Using linear probes under a contrastive design, we show that these biases are encoded as linearly separable directions in model activation space. Finally, we apply activation steering to modulate biased behavior, achieving 26--32\% reduction in bias score (fraction of biased responses) while preserving downstream capability on 25 benchmarks (Llama: negligible degradation; Qwen: up to $-$19.0pp for Judgment biases). Despite near-orthogonal bias representations across models (mean cosine similarity 0.01), steering reduces bias at similar rates across architectures ($r(246)$=.621, $p$<.001), suggesting shared functional organization.

We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based. We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable. Based on more than 17,000 evaluations by workers from these jobs, we find little evidence of crashing waves (in contrast to recent work by METR), but substantial evidence that rising tides are the primary form of AI automation. AI performance is high and improving rapidly across a wide range of tasks. We estimate that, in 2024-Q2, AI models successfully complete tasks that take humans approximately 3-4 hours with about a 50% success rate, increasing to about 65% by 2025-Q3. If recent trends in AI capability growth persist, this pace of AI improvement implies that LLMs will be able to complete most text-related tasks with success rates of, on average, 80%-95% by 2029 at a minimally sufficient quality level. Achieving near-perfect success rates at this quality level or comparable success rates at superior quality would require several additional years. These AI capability improvements would impact the economy and labor market as organizations adopt AI, which could have a substantially longer timeline.

This paper presents a new method for the zero-shot open-vocabulary semantic segmentation (OVSS) of 3D automotive lidar data. To circumvent the recognized image-text modality gap that is intrinsic to approaches based on Vision Language Models (VLMs) such as CLIP, our method relies instead on image generation from text, to create prototype images. Given a 3D network distilled from a 2D Vision Foundation Model (VFM), we then label a point cloud by matching 3D point features with 2D image features of these prototypes. Our method is state-of-the-art for OVSS on nuScenes and SemanticKITTI. Code, pre-trained models, and generated images are available at https://github.com/valeoai/IGLOSS.

We introduce world-centered multi-agent systems (WMAS) as an alternative to traditional agent-centered architectures, arguing that structured domains such as enterprises and institutional systems require a shared, explicit world representation to ensure semantic consistency, explainability, and long-term stability. We classify worlds along dimensions including ontological explicitness, normativity, etc. In WMAS, learning and coordination operate over a shared world model rather than isolated agent-local representations, enabling global consistency and verifiable system behavior. We propose semantic models as a mathematical formalism for representing such worlds. Finally, we present the Ontobox platform as a realization of WMAS.

Moderation layers are increasingly a core component of many products built on user- or model-generated content. However, drafting and maintaining domain-specific safety policies remains costly. We present Deep Policy Research (DPR), a minimal agentic system that drafts a full content moderation policy based on only human-written seed domain information. DPR uses a single web search tool and lightweight scaffolding to iteratively propose search queries, distill diverse web sources into policy rules, and organize rules into an indexed document. We evaluate DPR on (1) the OpenAI undesired content benchmark across five domains with two compact reader LLMs and (2) an in-house multimodal advertisement moderation benchmark. DPR consistently outperforms definition-only and in-context learning baselines, and in our end-to-end setting it is competitive with expert-written policy sections in several domains. Moreover, under the same seed specification and evaluation protocol, DPR outperforms a general-purpose deep research system, suggesting that a task-specific, structured research loop can be more effective than generic web research for policy drafting. We release our experiment code at https://github.com/xiaowu0162/deep-policy-research.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a principled mathematical framework for decision-making under uncertainty. However, the exact solution to POMDPs is computationally intractable. In this paper, we address the computational intractability by introducing a novel framework for adaptive open-loop simplification with formal performance guarantees. Our method adaptively interleaves open-loop and closed-loop planning via a topology-based belief tree, enabling a significant reduction in planning complexity. The key contribution lies in the derivation of efficiently computable bounds which provide formal guarantees and can be used to ensure that our simplification can identify the immediate optimal action of the original POMDP problem. Our framework therefore provides computationally tractable performance guarantees for macro-actions within POMDPs. Furthermore, we propose a novel framework for safely skipping replanning during execution, supported by theoretical guarantees on multi-step open-loop action sequences. To the best of our knowledge, this framework is the first to address skipping replanning with formal performance guarantees. Practical online solvers for our proposed simplification are developed, including a sampling-based solver and an anytime solver. Empirical results demonstrate substantial computational speedups while maintaining provable performance guarantees, advancing the tractability and efficiency of POMDP planning.

LLM-based agents increasingly operate across repeated sessions, maintaining task states to ensure continuity. In many deployments, a single agent serves multiple users within a team or organization, reusing a shared knowledge layer across user identities. This shared persistence expands the failure surface: information that is locally valid for one user can silently degrade another user's outcome when the agent reapplies it without regard for scope. We refer to this failure mode as unintentional cross-user contamination (UCC). Unlike adversarial memory poisoning, UCC requires no attacker; it arises from benign interactions whose scope-bound artifacts persist and are later misapplied. We formalize UCC through a controlled evaluation protocol, introduce a taxonomy of three contamination types, and evaluate the problem in two shared-state mechanisms. Under raw shared state, benign interactions alone produce contamination rates of 57--71%. A write-time sanitization is effective when shared state is conversational, but leaves substantial residual risk when shared state includes executable artifacts, with contamination often manifesting as silent wrong answers. These results indicate that shared-state agents need artifact-level defenses beyond text-level sanitization to prevent silent cross-user failures.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) recovers the loss function of a forward learner from its observed responses adaptive IRL aims to reconstruct the loss function of a forward learner by passively observing its gradients as it performs reinforcement learning (RL). This paper proposes a novel passive Langevin-based algorithm that achieves adaptive IRL. The key difficulty in adaptive IRL is that the required gradients in the passive algorithm are counterfactual, that is, they are conditioned on events of probability zero under the forward learner's trajectory. Therefore, naive Monte Carlo estimators are prohibitively inefficient, and kernel smoothing, though common, suffers from slow convergence. We overcome this by employing Malliavin calculus to efficiently estimate the required counterfactual gradients. We reformulate the counterfactual conditioning as a ratio of unconditioned expectations involving Malliavin quantities, thus recovering standard estimation rates. We derive the necessary Malliavin derivatives and their adjoint Skorohod integral formulations for a general Langevin structure, and provide a concrete algorithmic approach which exploits these for counterfactual gradient estimation.

Competency question (CQ) elicitation represents a critical but resource-intensive bottleneck in ontology engineering. This foundational phase is often hampered by the communication gap between domain experts, who possess the necessary knowledge, and ontology engineers, who formalise it. This paper introduces IDEA2, a novel, semi-automated workflow that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) within a collaborative, expert-in-the-loop process to address this challenge. The methodology is characterised by a core iterative loop: an initial LLM-based extraction of CQs from requirement documents, a co-creational review and feedback phase by domain experts on an accessible collaborative platform, and an iterative, feedback-driven reformulation of rejected CQs by an LLM until consensus is achieved. To ensure transparency and reproducibility, the entire lifecycle of each CQ is tracked using a provenance model that captures the full lineage of edits, anonymised feedback, and generation parameters. The workflow was validated in 2 real-world scenarios (scientific data, cultural heritage), demonstrating that IDEA2 can accelerate the requirements engineering process, improve the acceptance and relevance of the resulting CQs, and exhibit high usability and effectiveness among domain experts. We release all code and experiments at https://github.com/KE-UniLiv/IDEA2

Vision transformers (ViT) rely on attention mechanism to weigh input features, and therefore attention scores have naturally been considered as explanations for its decision-making process. However, attention scores are almost always non-zero, resulting in noisy and diffused attention maps and limiting interpretability. Can we quantify uncertainty measures of attention scores and obtain regularized attention scores? To this end, we consider attention scores of ViT in a statistical framework where independent noise would lead to insignificant yet non-zero scores. Leveraging statistical learning techniques, we introduce the bootstrapping for attention scores which generates a baseline distribution of attention scores by resampling input features. Such a bootstrap distribution is then used to estimate significances and posterior probabilities of attention scores. In natural and medical images, the proposed \emph{Attention Regularization} approach demonstrates a straightforward removal of spurious attention arising from noise, drastically improving shrinkage and sparsity. Quantitative evaluations are conducted using both simulation and real-world datasets. Our study highlights bootstrapping as a practical regularization tool when using attention scores as explanations for ViT. Code available: https://github.com/ncchung/AttentionRegularization

While deep learning has significantly advanced accident anticipation, the robustness of these safety-critical systems against real-world perturbations remains a major challenge. We reveal that state-of-the-art models like CRASH, despite their high performance, exhibit significant instability in predictions and latent representations when faced with minor input perturbations, posing serious reliability risks. To address this, we introduce SECURE - Stable Early Collision Understanding Robust Embeddings, a framework that formally defines and enforces model robustness. SECURE is founded on four key attributes: consistency and stability in both prediction space and latent feature space. We propose a principled training methodology that fine-tunes a baseline model using a multi-objective loss, which minimizes divergence from a reference model and penalizes sensitivity to adversarial perturbations. Experiments on DAD and CCD datasets demonstrate that our approach not only significantly enhances robustness against various perturbations but also improves performance on clean data, achieving new state-of-the-art results.

While deepfake speech detectors built on large self-supervised learning (SSL) models achieve high accuracy, employing standard ensemble fusion to further enhance robustness often results in oversized systems with diminishing returns. To address this, we propose an evolutionary multi-objective score fusion framework that jointly minimizes detection error and system complexity. We explore two encodings optimized by NSGA-II: binary-coded detector selection for score averaging and a real-valued scheme that optimizes detector weights for a weighted sum. Experiments on the ASVspoof 5 dataset with 36 SSL-based detectors show that the obtained Pareto fronts outperform simple averaging and logistic regression baselines. The real-valued variant achieves 2.37% EER (0.0684 minDCF) and identifies configurations that match state-of-the-art performance while significantly reducing system complexity, requiring only half the parameters. Our method also provides a diverse set of trade-off solutions, enabling deployment choices that balance accuracy and computational cost.

Model merging provides a way of cheaply combining individual models to produce a model that inherits each individual's capabilities. While some merging methods can approach the performance of multitask training, they are often heuristically motivated and lack theoretical justification. A principled alternative is to pose model merging as a layer-wise optimization problem that directly minimizes interference between tasks. However, this formulation requires estimating per-layer covariance matrices from data, which may not be available when performing merging. In contrast, many of the heuristically-motivated methods do not require auxiliary data, making them practically advantageous. In this work, we revisit the interference minimization framework and show that, under certain conditions, covariance matrices can be estimated directly from difference matrices, eliminating the need for data while also reducing computational costs. We validate our approach across vision and language benchmarks on models ranging from 86M parameters to 7B parameters, outperforming previous data-free state-of-the-art merging methods

The fundamental problem of causal inference - that the counterfactual outcome for any individual is never observed - has shaped the entire methodology of the field. Every existing approach substitutes assumptions for missing data: ignorability, parallel trends, exclusion restrictions. None produces the counterfactual itself. This paper proposes the Digital Twin Counterfactual Framework (DTCF): rather than estimating the counterfactual statistically, we simulate it using a digital twin and subject the simulation to a hierarchical validation regime. We formalize the digital twin simulator as a stochastic mapping within the potential outcomes framework and introduce a hierarchy of twin fidelity assumptions - from marginal fidelity through joint fidelity to structural fidelity - each unlocking a progressively richer class of estimands. The central contribution is threefold. First, a five-level validation architecture converts the unfalsifiable claim that the simulator produces correct counterfactuals into falsifiable tests against observable data. Second, a formal decomposition separates causal quantities into those that are marginally validated (ATE, CATE, QTE - testable through observable-arm comparison) and those that are copula-dependent (the ITE distribution, probability of benefit/harm, variance of treatment effects - permanently reliant on the unobservable within-individual dependence structure). Third, bounding, sensitivity, and uncertainty quantification tools make the copula dependence explicit. The DTCF does not resolve the fundamental problem of causal inference. What it provides is a framework in which marginal causal claims become increasingly testable, joint causal claims become explicitly assumption-indexed, and the gap between the two is formally characterized.

Trampoline gymnastics involves extreme human poses and uncommon viewpoints, on which state-of-the art pose estimation models tend to under-perform. We demonstrate that this problem can be addressed by fine-tuning a pose estimation model on a dataset of synthetic trampoline poses (STP). STP is generated from motion capture recordings of trampoline routines. We develop a pipeline to fit noisy motion capture data to a parametric human model, then generate multiview realistic images. We use this data to fine-tune a ViTPose model, and test it on real multi-view trampoline images. The resulting model exhibits accuracy improvements in 2D which translates to improved 3D triangulation. In 2D, we obtain state-of-the-art results on such challenging data, bridging the performance gap between common and extreme poses. In 3D, we reduce the MPJPE by 12.5 mm with our best model, which represents an improvement of 19.6% compared to the pretrained ViTPose model.

Early identification of hazardous actions in contact sports enables timely intervention and improves player safety. We present a method for detecting risky tackles in American football practice videos and introduce a substantially expanded dataset for this task. Our work contains 733 single-athlete-dummy tackle clips, each temporally localized around first point contact and labeled with a strike zone component of the standardized Assessment for Tackling Technique (SATT-3), extending prior work that reported 178 annotated videos. Using a Vision transformer-based model with imbalance-aware training, we obtain risky recall of 0.67 and Risky F1 of 0.59 under crossvalidation. Relative to the previous baseline in a smaller subset (risky recall of 0.58; Risky F1 0.56 ), our approach improves risky recall by more than 8% points on a much larger dataset. These results indicate that the vision transformer-based video analysis, coupled with careful handling of class imbalance, can reliably detect rare but safety-critical tackling patterns, offering a practical pathway toward coach-centered injury prevention tools.

Learning human preferences in language models remains fundamentally challenging, as reward modeling relies on subtle, subjective comparisons or shades of gray rather than clear-cut labels. This study investigates the limits of current approaches and proposes a feature-augmented framework to better capture the multidimensional nature of human judgment. Using the Anthropic HHRLHF dataset, we evaluate ten diverse large language models LLMs under a standard pairwise preference setting, where baseline performance remains below 0.74 ROC AUC, highlighting the difficulty of the task. To address this, we enrich textual representations with interpretable signals: response length, refusal indicators, toxicity scores and prompt response semantic similarity, enabling models to explicitly capture key aspects of helpfulness, safety and relevance. The proposed hybrid approach yields consistent improvements across all models, achieving up to 0.84 ROC AUC and significantly higher pairwise accuracy, with DeBERTav3Large demonstrating the best performance. Beyond accuracy, we integrate SHAP and LIME to provide fine-grained interpretability, revealing that model decisions depend on contextualized safety and supportive framing rather than isolated keywords. We further analyze bias amplification, showing that while individual features have weak marginal effects, their interactions influence preference learning.