We propose a novel extension of the Bradley-Terry model to multiplayer games and adapt a recent algorithm by Newman [1] to our model. We demonstrate the use of our proposed method on synthetic datasets and on a real dataset of games of cards.

Poverty is a complex dynamic challenge that cannot be adequately captured using predefined differential equations. Nowadays, artificial machine learning (ML) methods have demonstrated significant potential in modelling real-world dynamical systems. Among these, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) have emerged as a powerful, data-driven approach for learning continuous-time dynamics directly from observations. This chapter applies the Neural ODE framework to analyze poverty dynamics in the Indian state of Odisha. Specifically, we utilize time-series data from 2007 to 2020 on the key indicators of economic development and poverty reduction. Within the Neural ODE architecture, the temporal gradient of the system is represented by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The obtained neural dynamical system is integrated using a numerical ODE solver to obtain the trajectory of over time. In backpropagation, the adjoint sensitivity method is utilized for gradient computation during training to facilitate effective backpropagation through the ODE solver. The trained Neural ODE model reproduces the observed data with high accuracy. This demonstrates the capability of Neural ODE to capture the dynamics of the poverty indicator of concrete-structured households. The obtained results show that ML methods, such as Neural ODEs, can serve as effective tools for modeling socioeconomic transitions. It can provide policymakers with reliable projections, supporting more informed and effective decision-making for poverty alleviation.

The scenario approach provides a powerful data-driven framework for designing solutions under uncertainty with rigorous probabilistic robustness guarantees. Existing theory, however, primarily addresses assessing robustness with respect to a single appropriateness criterion for the solution based on a dataset, whereas many practical applications - including multi-agent decision problems - require the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria and the assessment of their robustness based on multiple datasets, one per criterion. This paper develops a general scenario theory for multi-criteria data-driven decision making. A central innovation lies in the collective treatment of the risks associated with violations of individual criteria, which yields substantially more accurate robustness certificates than those derived from a naive application of standard results. In turn, this approach enables a sharper quantification of the robustness level with which all criteria are simultaneously satisfied. The proposed framework applies broadly to multi-criteria data-driven decision problems, providing a principled, scalable, and theoretically grounded methodology for design under uncertainty.

We prove that activation saturation imposes a structural dynamical limitation on autonomous Neural ODEs $\dot{h}=f_θ(h)$ with saturating activations ($\tanh$, sigmoid, etc.): if $q$ hidden layers of the MLP $f_θ$ satisfy $|σ'|\leδ$ on a region~$U$, the input Jacobian is attenuated as $\norm{Df_θ(x)}\le C(U)$ (for activations with $\sup_{x}|σ'(x)|\le 1$, e.g.\ $\tanh$ and sigmoid, this reduces to $C_Wδ^q$), forcing every Floquet (Lyapunov) exponen along any $T$-periodic orbit $γ\subset U$ into the interval $[-C(U),\;C(U)]$. This is a collapse of the Floquet spectrum: as saturation deepens ($δ\to 0$), all exponents are driven to zero, limiting both strong contraction and chaotic sensitivity. The obstruction is structural -- it constrains the learned vector field at inference time, independent of training quality. As a secondary contribution, for activations with $σ'>0$, a saturation-weighted spectral factorisation yields a refined bound $\widetilde{C}(U)\le C(U)$ whose improvement is amplified exponentially in~$T$ at the flow level. All results are numerically illustrated on the Stuart--Landau oscillator; the bounds provide a theoretical explanation for the empirically observed failure of $\tanh$-NODEs on the Morris--Lecar neuron model.

We study mechanical structures composed of spatial four-bar linkages that are bistable, that is, they allow for two distinct configurations. They have an interpretation as quad nets in the Study quadric which can be used to prove existence of arbitrarily large structures of this type. We propose a purely geometric construction of such examples, starting from infinitesimally flexible quad nets in Euclidean space and applying Whiteley de-averaging. This point of view situates the problem within the broader framework of discrete differential geometry and enables the construction of bistable structures from well-known classes of quad nets, such as discrete minimal surfaces. The proposed construction does not rely on numerical optimization and allows control over axis positions and snap angles.

Gaussian Splatting is a powerful tool for reconstructing diffuse scenes, but it struggles to simultaneously model specular reflections and the appearance of objects behind semi-transparent surfaces. These specular reflections and transmittance are essential for realistic novel view synthesis, and existing methods do not properly incorporate the underlying physical processes to simulate them. To address this issue, we propose RT-GS, a unified framework that integrates a microfacet material model and ray tracing to jointly model specular reflection and transmittance in Gaussian Splatting. We accomplish this by using separate Gaussian primitives for reflections and transmittance, which allow modeling distant reflections and reconstructing objects behind transparent surfaces concurrently. We utilize a differentiable ray tracing framework to obtain the specular reflection and transmittance appearance. Our experiments demonstrate that our method successfully produces reflections and recovers objects behind transparent surfaces in complex environments, achieving significant qualitative improvements over prior methods where these specular light interactions are prominent.

Current LLM-based coding agents follow a serial execution paradigm: the model first generates the complete code, then invokes an interpreter to execute it. This sequential workflow leaves the executor idle during generation and the generator idle during execution, resulting in unnecessary end-to-end latency. We observe that, unlike human developers, LLMs produce code tokens sequentially without revision, making it possible to execute code as it is being generated. We formalize this parallel execution paradigm, modeling it as a three-stage pipeline of generation, detection, and execution, and derive closed-form latency bounds that characterize its speedup potential and operating regimes. We then present Eager, a concrete implementation featuring AST-based chunking, dynamic batching with gated execution, and early error interruption. We evaluate Eager across four benchmarks, seven LLMs, and three execution environments. Results show that Eager reduces the non-overlapped execution latency by up to 99.9% and the end-to-end latency by up to 55% across seven LLMs and four benchmarks.

AI-driven conversational coaching is increasingly used to support workplace negotiation, yet prior work assumes uniform effectiveness across users. We challenge this assumption by examining how individual differences, particularly personality traits, moderate coaching outcomes. We conducted a between-subjects experiment (N=267) comparing theory-driven AI (Trucey), general-purpose AI (Control-AI), and a traditional negotiation handbook (Control-NoAI). Participants were clustered into three profiles -- resilient, overcontrolled, and undercontrolled -- based on the Big-Five personality traits and ARC typology. Resilient workers achieved broad psychological gains primarily from the handbook, overcontrolled workers showed outcome-specific improvements with theory-driven AI, and undercontrolled workers exhibited minimal effects despite engaging with the frameworks. These patterns suggest personality as a predictor of readiness beyond stage-based tailoring: vulnerable users benefit from targeted rather than comprehensive interventions. The study advances understanding of personality-determined intervention prerequisites and highlights design implications for adaptive AI coaching systems that align support intensity with individual readiness, rather than assuming universal effectiveness.

This letter studies multi-agent reinforcement learning in partially observable Markov potential games. Solving this problem is challenging due to partial observability, decentralized information, and the curse of dimensionality. First, to address the first two challenges, we leverage the common information framework, which allows agents to act based on both shared and local information. Second, to ensure tractability, we study an internal state that compresses accumulated information, preventing it from growing unboundedly over time. We then implement an internal state-based natural policy gradient method to find Nash equilibria of the Markov potential game. Our main contribution is to establish a non-asymptotic convergence bound for this method. Our theoretical bound decomposes into two interpretable components: a statistical error term that also arises in standard Markov potential games, and an approximation error capturing the use of finite-state controllers. Finally, simulations across multiple partially observable environments demonstrate that the proposed method using finite-state controllers achieves consistent improvements in performance compared to the setting where only the current observation is used.

We study the problem of reconstructing the latent geometry of a $d$-dimensional Riemannian manifold from a random geometric graph. While recent works have made significant progress in manifold recovery from random geometric graphs, and more generally from noisy distances, the precision of pairwise distance estimation has been fundamentally constrained by the volumetric barrier, namely the natural sample-spacing scale $n^{-1/d}$ coming from the fact that a generic point of the manifold typically lies at distance of order $n^{-1/d}$ from the nearest sampled point. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach, Orthogonal Ring Distance Estimation Routine (ORDER), which achieves a pointwise distance estimation precision of order $n^{-2/(d+5)}$ up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$ in polynomial time. This strictly beats the volumetric barrier for dimensions $d > 5$. As a consequence of obtaining pointwise precision better than $n^{-1/d}$, we prove that the Gromov--Wasserstein distance between the reconstructed metric measure space and the true latent manifold is of order $n^{-1/d}$. This matches the Wasserstein convergence rate of empirical measures, demonstrating that our reconstructed graph metric is asymptotically as good as having access to the full pairwise distance matrix of the sampled points. Our results are proven in a very general setting which includes general models of noisy pairwise distances, sparse random geometric graphs, and unknown connection probability functions.

DNNs are susceptible to defects like backdoors, adversarial attacks, and unfairness, undermining their reliability. Existing approaches mainly involve retraining, optimization, constraint-solving, or search algorithms. However, most methods rely on gradient calculations, restricting applicability to specific activation functions (e.g., ReLU), or use search algorithms with uninterpretable localization and repair. Furthermore, they often lack generalizability across multiple properties. We propose SHARPEN, integrating interpretable fault localization with a derivative-free optimization strategy. First, SHARPEN introduces a Deep SHAP-based localization strategy quantifying each layer's and neuron's marginal contribution to erroneous outputs. Specifically, a hierarchical coarse-to-fine approach reranks layers by aggregated impact, then locates faulty neurons/filters by analyzing activation divergences between property-violating and benign states. Subsequently, SHARPEN incorporates CMA-ES to repair identified neurons. CMA-ES leverages a covariance matrix to capture variable dependencies, enabling gradient-free search and coordinated adjustments across coupled neurons. By combining interpretable localization with evolutionary optimization, SHARPEN enables derivative-free repair across architectures, being less sensitive to gradient anomalies and hyperparameters. We demonstrate SHARPEN's effectiveness on three repair tasks. Balancing property repair and accuracy preservation, it outperforms baselines in backdoor removal (+10.56%), adversarial mitigation (+5.78%), and unfairness repair (+11.82%). Notably, SHARPEN handles diverse tasks, and its modular design is plug-and-play with different derivative-free optimizers, highlighting its flexibility.

Modern LLM agents increasingly create their own tools at runtime -- from Python functions to API clients -- yet existing benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively by downstream task completion. This is analogous to judging a software engineer only by whether their code runs, ignoring redundancy, regression, and safety. We introduce EvolveTool-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark for LLM-generated tool libraries in software engineering workflows. Across three domains requiring actual tool execution (proprietary data formats, API orchestration, and numerical computation), we define library-level software quality metrics -- reuse, redundancy, composition success, regression stability, and safety -- alongside a per-tool Tool Quality Score measuring correctness, robustness, generality, and code quality. In the first head-to-head comparison of code-level and strategy-level tool evolution (ARISE vs. EvoSkill vs. one-shot baselines, 99 tasks, two models), we show that systems with similar task completion (63-68%) differ by up to 18% in library health, revealing software quality risks invisible to task-only evaluation. Our results highlight that evaluation and governance of LLM-generated tools require treating the evolving tool library as a first-class software artifact, not a black box.

This paper introduces a new method for solving quadratic programs using primal-dual interior-point methods. Instead of handling complementarity as an explicit equation in the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions, we ensure that complementarity is implicitly satisfied by construction. This is achieved by introducing an auxiliary variable and relating it to the duals and slacks via a retraction map. Specifically, we prove that the softplus function has favorable numerical properties compared to the commonly used exponential map. The resulting KKT system is guaranteed to be spectrally bounded, thereby eliminating the most pressing limitation of primal-dual methods: ill-conditioning near the solution. These attributes facilitate the solution of the underlying linear system, either by removing the need to compute factorizations at every iteration, enabling factorization-free approaches like indirect solvers, or allowing the solver to achieve high accuracy in low-precision arithmetic. Consequently, this novel perspective opens new opportunities for interior-point methods, especially for solving large-scale problems to high precision.

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has become a cornerstone instrument for semiconductor materials metrology, enabling nanoscale analysis of complex multilayer structures that define device performance. Developing effective metrology workflows for such systems requires balancing automation with flexibility; rigid pipelines are brittle to sample variability, while purely manual approaches are slow and subjective. Here, we present a tunable human-AI-assisted workflow framework that enables modular and adaptive analysis of STEM images for device characterization. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate a workflow for automated layer thickness and interface roughness quantification in multilayer thin films. The system integrates gradient-based peak detection with interactive correction modules, allowing human input at the design stage while maintaining fully automated execution across samples. Implemented as a web-based interface, it processes TEM/EMD files directly, applies noise reduction and interface tracking algorithms, and outputs statistical roughness and thickness metrics with nanometer precision. This architecture exemplifies a general approach toward adaptive, reusable metrology workflows - bridging human insight and machine precision for scalable, standardized analysis in semiconductor manufacturing. The code is made available at https://github.com/utkarshp1161/thickness-mapping-webapp

Method illustrations (MIs) play a crucial role in conveying the core ideas of scientific papers, yet their generation remains a labor-intensive process. Here, we take inspiration from human authors' drawing practices and correspondingly propose \textbf{FigAgent}, a novel multi-agent framework for high-quality automatic MI generation. Our FigAgent distills drawing experiences from similar components across MIs and encapsulates them into reusable drawing middlewares that can be orchestrated for MI generation, while evolving these middlewares to adapt to dynamically evolving drawing requirements. Besides, a novel Explore-and-Select drawing strategy is introduced to mimic the human-like trial-and-error manner for gradually constructing MIs with complex structures. Extensive experiments show the efficacy of our method.

We consider the problem of learning-based man-in-the-middle (MITM) attacks in cyber-physical systems (CPS), and extend our previously proposed Bellman Deviation Detection (BDD) framework for model-free reinforcement learning (RL). We refine the standard MDP attack model by allowing the reward function to depend on both the current and subsequent states, thereby capturing reward variations induced by errors in the adversary's transition estimate. We also derive an optimal system-identification strategy for the adversary that minimizes detectable value deviations. Further, we prove that the agent's asymptotic learning time required to secure the system scales linearly with the adversary's learning time, and that this matches the optimal lower bound. Hence, the proposed detection scheme is order-optimal in detection efficiency. Finally, we extend the framework to asynchronous and intermittent attack scenarios, where reliable detection is preserved.

Deep learning applications at the network edge lead to a significant growth in AI-related carbon emissions, presenting a critical sustainability challenge. The existing edge computing frameworks optimize for latency and throughput, but they largely ignore the environmental impact of inference workloads. This paper introduces CarbonEdge, a carbon-aware deep learning inference framework that extends adaptive model partitioning with carbon footprint estimation and green scheduling apabilities. We propose a carbon-aware scheduling algorithm that extends traditional weighted scoring with a carbon efficiency metric, supporting a tunable performance--carbon trade-off (demonstrated via weight sweep). Experimental evaluations on Docker-simulated heterogeneous edge environments show that CarbonEdge-Green mode achieves a 22.9% reduction in carbon emissions compared to monolithic execution. The framework achieves 1.3x improvement in carbon efficiency (245.8 vs 189.5 inferences per gram CO2) with negligible scheduling overhead (0.03ms per task). These results highlight the framework's potential for sustainable edge AI deployment, providing researchers and practitioners a tool to quantify and minimize the environmental footprint of distributed deep learning inference.

Real-time 30-to-60 fps video frame interpolation on mobile neural processing units (NPUs) requires each synthesized frame within 33.3 ms. We show that mainstream flow-based video frame interpolation faces three structural deployment barriers on mobile NPUs: spatial sampling operators exceed the frame budget or lack hardware support, iterative flow refinement collapses under 8-bit integer post-training quantization, and memory-bound operators dominate the inference graph. ANVIL addresses these barriers by reusing motion vectors from the H.264/AVC decoder to prealign input frames, removing learned optical flow, spatial sampling, and iterative accumulation from the accelerator graph. The remaining residual is refined by a convolution-dominated network composed almost entirely of compute-bound operators. On a Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 device, ANVIL achieves 12.8 ms 1080p inference at 8-bit integer precision; an open-source Android player sustains 28.4 ms median end-to-end latency over 30-minute continuous playback. Per-operator causal analysis identifies quantized accumulation on recurrent flow states as a key mechanism behind integer quantization failure in iterative methods. The current design targets H.264/AVC playback with decoder-exposed motion vectors.

Recent advances in large language models have improved the capabilities of coding agents, yet systematic evaluation of complex, end-to-end website development remains limited. To address this gap, we introduce Vision2Web, a hierarchical benchmark for visual website development, spanning from static UI-to-code generation, interactive multi-page frontend reproduction, to long-horizon full-stack website development. The benchmark is constructed from real-world websites and comprises a total of 193 tasks across 16 categories, with 918 prototype images and 1,255 test cases. To support flexible, thorough and reliable evaluation, we propose workflow-based agent verification paradigm based on two complementary components: a GUI agent verifier and a VLM-based judge. We evaluate multiple visual language models instantiated under different coding-agent frameworks, revealing substantial performance gaps at all task levels, with state-of-the-art models still struggling on full-stack development.

In the realm of machine learning theory, to prevent unnatural coding schemes between teacher and learner, No-Clash Teaching Dimension was introduced as provably optimal complexity measure for collusion-free teaching. However, whether No-Clash Teaching Dimension is upper-bounded by Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension remains unknown. In this paper, for any finite concept class, we construct fragments of size equals to its Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension which identify concepts through an ordered compression scheme. Naturally, these fragments are used as teaching sets, one can easily see that they satisfy the non-clashing condition, i.e., this open question is resolved for finite concept classes.

This study examined how high school students with different motivational profiles use generative AI tools in math and writing. Through K-means clustering analysis of survey data from 6,793 Mexican high school students, we identified three distinct motivational profiles based on self-concept and perceived subject value. Results revealed distinct domain-specific AI usage patterns across students with different motivational profiles. Our findings challenge one-size-fits-all AI integration approaches and advocate for motivationally-informed educational interventions.

Domain-specific finetuning is essential for dense retrievers, yet not all training pairs contribute equally to the learning process. We introduce OPERA, a data pruning framework that exploits this heterogeneity to improve both the effectiveness and efficiency of retrieval model adaptation. We first investigate static pruning (SP), which retains only high-similarity query-document pairs, revealing an intrinsic quality-coverage tradeoff: ranking (NDCG) improves while retrieval (Recall) can degrade due to reduced query diversity. To resolve this tradeoff, we propose a two-stage dynamic pruning (DP) strategy that adaptively modulates sampling probabilities at both query and document levels throughout training, prioritizing high-quality examples while maintaining access to the full training set. Evaluations across eight datasets spanning six domains demonstrate the effectiveness of both approaches: SP improves ranking over standard finetuning (NDCG@10 +0.5\%), while DP achieves the strongest performance on both ranking (NDCG@10 +1.9\%) and retrieval (Recall@20 +0.7\%), with an average rank of 1.38 across all methods. These findings scale to Qwen3-Embedding, an LLM-based dense retriever, confirming architecture-agnostic benefits. Notably, DP reaches comparable performance in less than 50\% of the training time required by standard finetuning.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents have demonstrated strong capabilities in automating software engineering tasks such as static bug fixing. However, in the real world, the development of mature software is typically predicated on complex requirement changes and long-term feature iterations -- a process that static, one-shot repair paradigms fail to capture. To bridge this gap, we propose SWE-CI, the first repository-level benchmark built upon the Continuous Integration loop, aiming to shift the evaluation paradigm for code generation from static, short-term functional correctness toward dynamic, long-term maintainability. The key insight is simple: Maintainability can be revealed by tracking how functional correctness changes over time. The benchmark comprises 100 tasks, each deriving from a real-world code repository with a development history spanning an average of 233 days and 71 consecutive commits. SWE-CI requires agents to systematically resolve these tasks through dozens of rounds of analysis and coding iterations. SWE-CI provides valuable insights into how well agents can sustain code quality throughout long-term evolution.

Table Question Answering (TQA) aims to answer natural language questions over structured tables. Large Language Models (LLMs) enable promising solutions to this problem, with operator-centric solutions that generate table manipulation pipelines in a multi-step manner offering state-of-the-art performance. However, these solutions rely on multiple LLM calls, resulting in prohibitive latencies and computational costs. We propose Operation-R1, the first framework that trains lightweight LLMs (e.g., Qwen-4B/1.7B) via a novel variant of reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to produce high-quality data-preparation pipelines for TQA in a single inference step. To train such an LLM, we first introduce a self-supervised rewarding mechanism to automatically obtain fine-grained pipeline-wise supervision signals for LLM training. We also propose variance-aware group resampling to mitigate training instability. To further enhance robustness of pipeline generation, we develop two complementary mechanisms: operation merge, which filters spurious operations through multi-candidate consensus, and adaptive rollback, which offers runtime protection against information loss in data transformation. Experiments on two benchmark datasets show that, with the same LLM backbone, Operation-R1 achieves average absolute accuracy gains of 8.83 and 4.44 percentage points over multi-step preparation baselines, with 79\% table compression and a 2.2$\times$ reduction in monetary cost.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in interactive and retrieval-augmented systems, but they remain vulnerable to prompt injection attacks, where injected secondary prompts force the model to deviate from the user's instructions to execute a potentially malicious task defined by the adversary. Recent work shows that ML models trained on activation shifts from LLMs' hidden layers can detect such drift. In this paper, we demonstrate that these detectors are not robust to adaptive adversaries. We propose a multi-probe evasion attack that appends an adversarially optimised suffix to poisoned inputs, jointly optimising a universal suffix to simultaneously fool all layer-wise drift detectors while preserving the effectiveness of the underlying injection. Using a modified Greedy Coordinate Gradient (GCG) approach, we generate universal suffixes that make prompt injections consistently evasive across multiple probes simultaneously. On Phi-3 3.8B and Llama-3 8B, a single suffix achieves attack success rates of 93.91% and 99.63% in successfully evading all detectors simultaneously. These results show that activation-based task drift detectors are highly vulnerable to adaptive prompt injection attacks, motivating stronger defences against such threats. We also propose a defence based on adversarial suffix augmentation: we generate multiple suffixes, append one at random during forward passes, and train detectors on the resulting activations. This approach is found to be effective against evasive attacks.

Learning the dependence structure among variables in complex systems is a central problem across medical, natural, and social sciences. These structures can be naturally represented by graphs, and the task of inferring such graphs from data is known as graph learning or causal discovery. Existing approaches typically rely on restrictive assumptions about the data-generating process, employ greedy oracle algorithms, or solve approximate formulations of the graph learning problem. Therefore, they are either sensitive to violations of central assumptions or fail to guarantee globally optimal solutions. We address these limitations by introducing a nonparametric graph learning framework based on conditional independence testing and integer programming. We reformulate the graph learning problem as a mixed-integer program and prove that solving this integer-programming problem provides a globally optimal solution to the original graph learning problem. Our method leverages efficient encodings of graphical separation criteria, enabling the exact recovery of larger graphs than was previously feasible. We provide an open-source R package 'glip' which supports learning (acyclic) directed (mixed) graphs and chain graphs. We demonstrate that our approach is often faster than existing exact graph learning procedures and achieves state-of-the-art performance on simulated and benchmark data across all aforementioned classes of graphs.

Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC aspire to peg stability by coupling issuance controls with reserve attestations. In practice, however, transparency remains fragmented across heterogeneous data sources, with key evidence about circulation, reserves, and disclosure dispersed across records that are difficult to connect and interpret jointly. We introduce a large language model (LLM)-based automated framework for bridging cross-domain transparency in stablecoins by aligning issuer disclosures with observable circulation evidence. First, we propose an integrative framework using LLMs to parse documents, extract salient financial indicators, and semantically align reported statements with corresponding market and issuance metrics. Second, we integrate multi-chain issuance records and disclosure documents within a model context protocol (MCP) framework that standardizes LLM access to both quantitative market data and qualitative disclosure narratives. This framework enables unified retrieval and contextual alignment across heterogeneous stablecoin information sources and facilitates consistent analysis. Third, we demonstrate the capability of LLMs to operate across heterogeneous data domains in blockchain analytics, quantifying discrepancies between reported and observed circulation and examining their implications for transparency and price dynamics. Our findings reveal systematic gaps between disclosed and verifiable data, showing that LLM-assisted analysis enhances cross-domain transparency and supports automated, data-driven auditing in decentralized finance (DeFi).

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter--Syntetos--Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta--Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework provides a coherent generative reinterpretation of the classical TSB structure. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE among all baselines, while remaining competitive in MAE. On a 5,000-series M5 sample, it improves MAE and RMSE over classical intermittent baselines. Under the calibrated probabilistic configuration, TSB-HB yields competitive pinball loss and a favorable sharpness--calibration tradeoff among the parametric baselines reported in the main text.

Large transformer models, trained on diverse datasets, have demonstrated impressive few-shot performance on previously unseen tasks without requiring parameter updates. This capability has also been explored in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where agents interact with the environment to retrieve context and maximize cumulative rewards, showcasing strong adaptability in complex settings. However, in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), where agents must coordinate toward a shared goal, decentralized policy deployment can lead to mismatches in task alignment and reward assignment, limiting the efficiency of policy adaptation. To address this challenge, we introduce Multi-agent In-context Coordination via Decentralized Memory Retrieval (MAICC), a novel approach designed to enhance coordination by fast adaptation. Our method involves training a centralized embedding model to capture fine-grained trajectory representations, followed by decentralized models that approximate the centralized one to obtain team-level task information. Based on the learned embeddings, relevant trajectories are retrieved as context, which, combined with the agents' current sub-trajectories, inform decision-making. During decentralized execution, we introduce a novel memory mechanism that effectively balances test-time online data with offline memory. Based on the constructed memory, we propose a hybrid utility score that incorporates both individual- and team-level returns, ensuring credit assignment across agents. Extensive experiments on cooperative MARL benchmarks, including Level-Based Foraging (LBF) and SMAC (v1/v2), show that MAICC enables faster adaptation to unseen tasks compared to existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/LAMDA-RL/MAICC.

While generative models, especially large language models (LLMs), are ubiquitous in today's world, principled mechanisms to assess their (in)correctness are limited. Using the conformal prediction framework, previous works construct sets of LLM responses where the probability of including an incorrect response, or error, is capped at a user-defined tolerance level. However, since these methods are based on p-values, they are susceptible to p-hacking, i.e., choosing the tolerance level post-hoc can invalidate the guarantees. We therefore leverage e-values to complement generative model outputs with e-scores as measures of incorrectness. In addition to achieving the guarantees as before, e-scores further provide users with the flexibility of choosing data-dependent tolerance levels while upper bounding size distortion, a post-hoc notion of error. We experimentally demonstrate their efficacy in assessing LLM outputs under different forms of correctness: mathematical factuality and property constraints satisfaction.