This paper proposes a decomposition of human capital into three orthogonal components -- physical-manual (H^P), routine-cognitive (H^C), and augmentable-cognitive (H^A) -- and develops a production function in which AI capital interacts asymmetrically with these components: substituting for routine cognitive work while complementing augmentable cognitive work through an amplification function phi(D). I derive a corrected Mincerian wage equation and show that the standard specification is misspecified in AI-augmented economies. Using LLM-generated measures of occupational augmentability for 18,796 O*NET task statements mapped to 440 Colombian occupations, merged with household survey microdata (N = 105,517 workers), I estimate the augmented Mincer equation. The wage return to H^A increases with AI adoption in the formal sector (beta_2 = +0.051, p < 0.001), while informal workers cannot capture augmentation rents (beta_2 = -0.044). A triple interaction confirms formality as the binding mechanism (beta_{AHC x D x Formal} = +0.272, p < 0.001). The augmentation premium is strongest for experienced workers (ages 46-65) and in health and education sectors. These results provide the first developing-country evidence of cognitive factor decomposition in AI-augmented labor markets and demonstrate that the binding constraint on human-AI complementarity in the Global South is not technology access but labor market institutions.

Societies and organizations often fail to surface latent consensus because individuals fear social censure. A manager might suspect a silent majority would offer a criticism, support a change, report a risk, or endorse a policy -- if only it were safe. Likewise, individuals with beliefs they think are rare and controversial might stay quiet for fear of consequences at work or an online mob. In both cases pluralistic ignorance produces a public discourse misaligned with privately-held beliefs. Social assurance contracts unlock latent consensus, making the public discussion more accurately reflect the underlying distribution of actual beliefs. They are akin to an open letter that publishes only when a stated threshold number of private signatures is reached. If it is not reached, nothing is revealed and no one is exposed. Whereas a single hand raised in dissent might get cut off, a thousand can be raised safely together. I build a formal model and derive rules for choosing the threshold. The mechanism (i) induces participation from those willing to speak if assured of company, resolving the core coordination problem in pluralistic ignorance; (ii) makes the threshold a transparent policy lever -- sponsors can maximize success, maximize public-coalition revelation, or hit a desired success probability; and (iii) turns success into information: meeting the threshold publicly reveals hidden agreement and can widen the range of views that can be expressed in public. I consider robustness to mistrust, organized opposition, and network structure, and outline low-trust implementations like cryptographic escrow. Applications include employee voice, safety and compliance, whistleblowing, and civic expression.

Housing selection is a high-stakes and largely irreversible decision problem. We study housing consultation as a decision-support interface for housing selection. Existing housing platforms and many LLM-based assistants often reduce this process to ranking or recommendation, resulting in opaque reasoning, brittle multi-constraint handling, and limited guarantees on factuality. We present HabitatAgent, the first LLM-powered multi-agent architecture for end-to-end housing consultation. HabitatAgent comprises four specialized agent roles: Memory, Retrieval, Generation, and Validation. The Memory Agent maintains multi-layer user memory through internal stages for constraint extraction, memory fusion, and verification-gated updates; the Retrieval Agent performs hybrid vector--graph retrieval (GraphRAG); the Generation Agent produces evidence-referenced recommendations and explanations; and the Validation Agent applies multi-tier verification and targeted remediation. Together, these agents provide an auditable and reliable workflow for end-to-end housing consultation. We evaluate HabitatAgent on 100 real user consultation scenarios (300 multi-turn question--answer pairs) under an end-to-end correctness protocol. A strong single-stage baseline (Dense+Rerank) achieves 75% accuracy, while HabitatAgent reaches 95%.

Generative AI helps users solve problems more efficiently, but without leaving a public trace. Fewer discussions and solutions reach public platforms, and the archives that future problem-solvers depend on can shrink. We build a dynamic model of public good provision where agents contribute by solving problems that other agents posted on a public platform, and the accumulated solutions form a depreciating public archive. AI reduces archive creation through two margins that require different instruments. The flow margin: the posted volume of knowledge-enhancing queries declines as AI resolves more problems privately before they reach the platform. The resolution margin: the probability that posted queries are resolved declines as AI raises contributors' outside options, thinning the contributor pool and creating congestion on the platform. The two margins interact through a self-undermining feedback that can generate low-archive traps. The decomposition yields a diagnostic prediction: in the congested regime, a joint decline in posted volume and conditional resolution requires that supply-side pool thinning is quantitatively present, whereas volume decline with stable or rising resolution indicates that private diversion alone is the dominant force. Encouraging public sharing of AI-assisted solutions offsets the decline associated with private diversion but cannot repair participation-driven deterioration in conditional resolution, which requires maintaining contributor engagement directly.

The Double Linear Policy (DLP) framework guarantees a Robust Positive Expectation (RPE) under optimized constant-weight designs or admissible prespecified time-varying policies. However, the sequential optimization of these time-varying weights remains an open challenge. To address this gap, we propose a Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) framework. We formulate weight selection as a receding-horizon optimal control problem that explicitly maximizes risk-adjusted returns while enforcing survivability and predicted positive expectation constraints. Notably, an analytical gradient is derived for the non-convex objective function, enabling efficient optimization via the L-BFGS-B algorithm. Empirical results demonstrate that this dynamic, closed-loop approach improves risk-adjusted performance and drawdown control relative to constant-weight and prescribed time-varying DLP baselines.

We develop a quantum algorithm to price discretely monitored lookback options in the Black-Scholes framework using imaginary time evolution. By rewriting the pricing PDE as a Schrodinger-type equation, the problem becomes the imaginary time evolution of a quantum state under a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. This evolution is approximated with the Variational Quantum imaginary time evolution (VarQITE) method, which replaces the exact non-unitary dynamics with a parameterized, hardware-efficient quantum circuit. A central challenge arises from jump conditions caused by the discrete updating of the running maximum. This feature is not present in standard quantum treatments of European or Asian options. To address this, we propose two quantum-compatible formulations: (i) a sequential approach that models jumps via dedicated jump Hamiltonians applied at monitoring dates, and (ii) a simultaneous multi-function evolution that removes explicit jumps at the expense of an increased number of dimensions. We compare both approaches in terms of qubit resources, circuit complexity and numerical accuracy, and benchmark them against Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that discretely monitored, path-dependent options with jump conditions can be handled within a variational quantum framework, paving the way toward the quantum pricing of more complex derivatives with non-smooth dynamics.

This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge for accurate prediction. The proposed approach incorporates the empirical distributional features of interarrival times while preserving the self-exciting and decay structure. This work also examines the stochastic stability of the process, which can be interpreted as a general state-space Markov chain. Under suitable conditions, the process is irreducible, aperiodic, positive Harris recurrent, and has a stationary distribution. An empirical study demonstrates that the model achieves strong predictive performance compared with several alternative approaches when forecasting durations in ultra-high-frequency trading data.

Carbon farming is the collection of agricultural best practices specifically designed to maximize the capture and long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in soils and plant biomass, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation practices. Carbon farming can be viewed as a promising pathway to simultaneously address climate change mitigation, soil degradation, and farmer welfare. For example, if the entire agricultural cropland in India practices carbon farming, this will spectacularly offset about 50% of emissions from the country's annual transport-sector emissions. However, practical deployment of carbon farming is constrained by scientific challenges, inherent complexity, and fragmented understanding across disciplines. This inter-disciplinary, expository survey offers the first unified treatment of carbon farming for practitioners, policymakers, and researchers. The survey integrates insights from agronomy, soil science, climate science, measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), economics, carbon markets, and policy design. We begin by establishing the conceptual foundations of soil organic carbon dynamics and agricultural carbon sequestration, and compare carbon farming with the paradigms of sustainable, regenerative, and organic agriculture. We then present a comprehensive landscape analysis of carbon-farming best practices, including both generic and crop-specific interventions, and systematically examine their co-benefits and trade-offs. The paper offers a rigorous review of MRV frameworks, emerging digital MRV technologies, and the carbon-credit project life cycle, followed by a structured analysis of voluntary and compliance carbon markets...

We show that when a dynamic-weight AMM rebalances by creating arbitrage opportunities, the per-step log loss is the KL divergence between successive weight vectors. The Fisher-Rao metric is therefore the natural Riemannian metric on the weight simplex. The loss-minimising interpolation under the leading-order expansion of this KL cost is SLERP (Spherical Linear Interpolation) in the Hellinger coordinates $η_i = \sqrt{w_i}$: a geodesic on the positive orthant of the unit sphere, traversed at constant speed. The SLERP midpoint equals the (AM+GM)/normalise heuristic of prior work (Willetts & Harrington, 2024), so the heuristic lies on the geodesic. This identity holds for any number of tokens and any magnitude of weight change; using this link, all dyadic points on the geodesic can be reached by recursive AM-GM bisection without trigonometric functions. SLERP's relative sub-optimality on the full KL cost is proportional to the squared magnitude of the overall weight change and to $1/f^2$, where $f$ is the number of interpolation steps. Under driftless GBM prices, the fractional value loss from each weight update is price-independent, and the cross term between weight and price changes telescopes, so the constant-price geometry carries over. LVR exposure introduces a finite optimal step count $f^*$, which lies in the perturbative regime where SLERP remains near-optimal.

This paper is devoted to developing a unified framework for stochastic growth models with environmental risk, in which rare but catastrophic shocks interact with capital accumulation and pollution. The analysis is based upon a general Poisson point process formulation, leading to non-local Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations that admit closed-form candidate solutions and yield a composite state variable capturing exposure to rare shocks. We consider cases where disaster risk is endogenized through a pollution-dependent intensity and, in the more general cases, it also accommodates for state-dependent events of varying magnitude. Our formulation captures how environmental degradation amplifies macroeconomic vulnerability and strengthens incentives for abatement. From a technical perspective, it provides tractable jump-diffusion control problems whose HJB equation decomposes naturally into capital and pollution components under power-type value function.

Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces alternative indices to investigate this issue. Two ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, and four dynamic concentration indicators compare the final group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. Using these indices, we find no evidence of any long-run trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

This paper extends the Acemoglu-Restrepo task exposure framework to address the labor market effects of agentic artificial intelligence systems: autonomous AI agents capable of completing entire occupational workflows rather than discrete tasks. Unlike prior automation technologies that substitute for individual subtasks, agentic AI systems execute end-to-end workflows involving multi-step reasoning, tool invocation, and autonomous decision-making, substantially expanding occupational displacement risk beyond what existing task-level analyses capture. We introduce the Agentic Task Exposure (ATE) score, a composite measure computed algorithmically from O*NET task data using calibrated adoption parameters--not a regression estimate--incorporating AI capability scores, workflow coverage factors, and logistic adoption velocity. Applying the ATE framework across five major US technology regions (Seattle-Tacoma, San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, New York, and Boston) over a 2025-2030 horizon, we find that 93.2% of the 236 analyzed occupations across six information-intensive SOC groups (financial, legal, healthcare, healthcare support, sales, and administrative/clerical) cross the moderate-risk threshold (ATE >= 0.35) in Tier 1 regions by 2030, with credit analysts, judges, and sustainability specialists reaching ATE scores of 0.43-0.47. We simultaneously identify seventeen emerging occupational categories benefiting from reinstatement effects, concentrated in human-AI collaboration, AI governance, and domain-specific AI operations roles. Our findings carry implications for workforce transition policy, regional economic planning, and the temporal dynamics of labor market adjustment

There is emerging evidence that trust-region (TR) algorithms are very effective at solving derivative-free nonconvex stochastic optimization problems in which the objective function is a Monte Carlo (MC) estimate. A recent strand of methodologies adaptively adjusts the sample size of the MC estimates by keeping the estimation error below a measure of stationarity induced from the TR radius. In this work we explore stratified adaptive sampling strategies to equip the TR framework with accurate estimates of the objective function, thus optimizing the required number of MC samples to reach a given ε-accuracy of the solution. We prove a reduced sample complexity, confirm a superior efficiency via numerical tests and applications, and explore inexpensive implementations in high dimension.

We study trajectory forecasting under squared loss for time series with weak conditional structure, using highly expressive prediction models. Building on the classical characterization of squared-loss risk minimization, we emphasize regimes in which the conditional expectation of future trajectories is effectively degenerate, leading to trivial Bayes-optimal predictors (flat for prices and zero for returns in standard financial settings). In this regime, increased model expressivity does not improve predictive accuracy but instead introduces spurious trajectory fluctuations around the optimal predictor. These fluctuations arise from the reuse of noise and result in increased prediction variance without any reduction in bias. This provides a process-level explanation for the degradation of Transformerbased forecasts on financial time series. We complement these theoretical results with numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data, analyzing the distribution of trajectory-level forecasting errors. The results show that Transformer-based models yield larger errors than a simple linear benchmark on a large majority of forecasting windows, consistent with the variance-driven mechanism identified by the theory.

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to foreign exchange (Forex) trading remains challenging because realistic environments, well-defined reward functions, and expressive action spaces must be satisfied simultaneously, yet many prior studies rely on simplified simulators, single scalar rewards, and restricted action representations, limiting both interpretability and practical relevance. This paper presents a modular RL framework designed to address these limitations through three tightly integrated components: a friction-aware execution engine that enforces strict anti-lookahead semantics, with observations at time t, execution at time t+1, and mark-to-market at time t+1, while incorporating realistic costs such as spread, commission, slippage, rollover financing, and margin-triggered liquidation; a decomposable 11-component reward architecture with fixed weights and per-step diagnostic logging to enable systematic ablation and component-level attribution; and a 10-action discrete interface with legal-action masking that encodes explicit trading primitives while enforcing margin-aware feasibility constraints. Empirical evaluation on EURUSD focuses on learning dynamics rather than generalization and reveals strongly non-monotonic reward interactions, where additional penalties do not reliably improve outcomes; the full reward configuration achieves the highest training Sharpe (0.765) and cumulative return (57.09 percent). The expanded action space increases return but also turnover and reduces Sharpe relative to a conservative 3-action baseline, indicating a return-activity trade-off under a fixed training budget, while scaling-enabled variants consistently reduce drawdown, with the combined configuration achieving the strongest endpoint performance.

While asset-pricing models increasingly recognize that factor risk premia are subject to structural change, existing literature typically assumes that investors correctly account for such instability. This paper studies how investors instead learn under a misspecified model that underestimates structural breaks. We propose a minimal Bayesian framework in which this misspecification generates persistent prediction errors and pricing distortions, and we introduce an empirically tractable measure of mislearning intensity $(Δ_t)$ based on predictive likelihood ratios. The empirical results yield three main findings. First, in benchmark factor systems, elevated mislearning does not forecast a deterministic short-run collapse in performance; instead, it is associated with stronger long-horizon returns and Sharpe ratios, consistent with an equilibrium premium for acute model uncertainty. Second, in a broader anomaly universe, this pricing relation does not generalize uniformly: mislearning is more strongly associated with future drawdowns, downside semivolatility, and other measures of instability, with substantial heterogeneity across anomaly families. Third, the cross-sectional relation between instability and mislearning is inherently conditional: while a monotonic link between break-proneness and average mislearning does not hold in the full cross-section, it re-emerges in low-friction (low-IVOL) environments where break-state severity is more comparable across assets.