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2512.06210 2026-03-13 stat.AP cs.LG

Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict

Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer, Daniel Racek

Comments 23 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Replication code available at https://github.com/ccew-unibw/uncertaintrees

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英文摘要

Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this prediction task, the nature of violent conflict and data limitations, embedding conflict prediction in the wider literature on uncertainty quantification in machine learning. Based on this, we develop a strategy to quantify uncertainty in conflict forecasting, shifting from traditional point predictions to full predictive distributions. Our approach combines multiple tree-based classifiers and distributional regressors in a custom AutoML setup, estimating distributions for each pgm individually. We also test the integration of regional models in spatial ensembles as a potential avenue to reduce uncertainty by lowering data requirements and accounting for systematic differences between conflict contexts. The models are able to consistently outperform a suite of benchmarks derived from conflict history in predictions up to one year in advance. Marginal differences in model-wide metrics emphasize the need to understand their behavior for a given prediction problem, in this case characterized by extremely high zero-inflatedness. Adressing this, we compliment our evaluation with a simulation experiment, which demonstrates that our models reflect meaningful performance improvements, which can be traced back to conflict-affected regions. Lastly, we show that the integration of regional models does not decrease performance, opening avenues to integrate additional data sources in the future.

2510.19444 2026-03-13 cs.LO cs.AI cs.LG

A Foundational Theory of Quantitative Abstraction: Adjunctions, Duality, and Logic for Probabilistic Systems

Nivar Anwer, Ezequiel López-Rubio, David Elizondo, Rafael M. Luque-Baena

Comments Some major mathematical errors that we need to rectify. We cannot specify exact error areas as they are spread throughout. The theorems need further development

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英文摘要

The analysis and control of stochastic dynamical systems rely on probabilistic models such as (continuous-space) Markov decision processes, but large or continuous state spaces make exact analysis intractable and call for principled quantitative abstraction. This work develops a unified theory of such abstraction by integrating category theory, coalgebra, quantitative logic, and optimal transport, centred on a canonical $\varepsilon$-quotient of the behavioral pseudo-metric with a universal property: among all abstractions that collapse behavioral differences below $\varepsilon$, it is the most detailed, and every other abstraction achieving the same discounted value-loss guarantee factors uniquely through it. Categorically, a quotient functor $Q_\varepsilon$ from a category of probabilistic systems to a category of metric specifications admits, via the Special Adjoint Functor Theorem, a right adjoint $R_\varepsilon$, yielding an adjunction $Q_\varepsilon \dashv R_\varepsilon$ that formalizes a duality between abstraction and realization; logically, a quantitative modal $μ$-calculus with separate reward and transition modalities is shown, for a broad class of systems, to be expressively complete for the behavioral pseudo-metric, with a countable fully abstract fragment suitable for computation. The theory is developed coalgebraically over Polish spaces and the Giry monad and validated on finite-state models using optimal-transport solvers, with experiments corroborating the predicted contraction properties and structural stability and aligning with the theoretical value-loss bounds, thereby providing a rigorous foundation for quantitative state abstraction and representation learning in probabilistic domains.

2508.21038 2026-03-13 cs.IR cs.CL cs.LG

On the Theoretical Limitations of Embedding-Based Retrieval

Orion Weller, Michael Boratko, Iftekhar Naim, Jinhyuk Lee

Comments Accepted to ICLR'26

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英文摘要

Vector embeddings have been tasked with an ever-increasing set of retrieval tasks over the years, with a nascent rise in using them for reasoning, instruction-following, coding, and more. These new benchmarks push embeddings to work for any query and any notion of relevance that could be given. While prior works have pointed out theoretical limitations of vector embeddings, there is a common assumption that these difficulties are exclusively due to unrealistic queries, and those that are not can be overcome with better training data and larger models. In this work, we demonstrate that we may encounter these theoretical limitations in realistic settings with extremely simple queries. We connect known results in learning theory, showing that the number of top-k subsets of documents capable of being returned as the result of some query is limited by the dimension of the embedding. We empirically show that this holds true even if we directly optimize on the test set with free parameterized embeddings. Using free embeddings, we then demonstrate that returning all pairs of documents requires a relatively high dimension. We then create a realistic dataset called LIMIT that stress tests embedding models based on these theoretical results, and observe that even state-of-the-art models fail on this dataset despite the simple nature of the task. Our work shows the limits of embedding models under the existing single vector paradigm and calls for future research to develop new techniques that can resolve this fundamental limitation.

2503.15772 2026-03-13 cs.DL cs.AI cs.CR

Detecting LLM-Generated Peer Reviews

Vishisht Rao, Aounon Kumar, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Nihar B. Shah

Comments 27 pages, 2 figures

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The integrity of peer review is fundamental to scientific progress, but the rise of large language models (LLMs) has introduced concerns that some reviewers may rely on these tools to generate reviews rather than writing them independently. Although some venues have banned LLM-assisted reviewing, enforcement remains difficult as existing detection tools cannot reliably distinguish between fully generated reviews and those merely polished with AI assistance. In this work, we address the challenge of detecting LLM-generated reviews. We consider the approach of performing indirect prompt injection via the paper's PDF, prompting the LLM to embed a covert watermark in the generated review, and subsequently testing for presence of the watermark in the review. We identify and address several pitfalls in naïve implementations of this approach. Our primary contribution is a rigorous watermarking and detection framework that offers strong statistical guarantees. Specifically, we introduce watermarking schemes and hypothesis tests that control the family-wise error rate across multiple reviews, achieving higher statistical power than standard corrections such as Bonferroni, while making no assumptions about the nature of human-written reviews. We explore multiple indirect prompt injection strategies -- including font-based embedding and obfuscated prompts -- and evaluate their effectiveness under various reviewer defense scenarios. Our experiments find high success rates in watermark embedding across various LLMs. We also empirically find that our approach is resilient to common reviewer defenses, and that the bounds on error rates in our statistical tests hold in practice. In contrast, we find that Bonferroni-style corrections are too conservative to be useful in this setting.

2501.08848 2026-03-13 cs.NI cs.AI cs.LG

RouteNet-Gauss: Hardware-Enhanced Network Modeling with Machine Learning

Carlos Güemes-Palau, Miquel Ferriol-Galmés, Jordi Paillisse-Vilanova, Albert López-Brescó, Pere Barlet-Ros, Albert Cabellos-Aparicio

Comments This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Networking. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited, content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/TON.2026.3668972 \c{opyright} 2026 IEEE. All rights reserved. Personal use is permitted, permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses

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Journal ref
IEEE Transactions on Networking. 34 (2026) 3840-3853
英文摘要

Network simulation is pivotal in network modeling, assisting with tasks ranging from capacity planning to performance estimation. Traditional approaches such as Discrete Event Simulation (DES) face limitations in terms of computational cost and accuracy. This paper introduces RouteNet-Gauss, a novel integration of a testbed network with a Machine Learning (ML) model to address these challenges. By using the testbed as a hardware accelerator, RouteNet-Gauss generates training datasets rapidly and simulates network scenarios with high fidelity to real-world conditions. Experimental results show that RouteNet-Gauss significantly reduces prediction errors by up to 95% and achieves a 488x speedup in inference time compared to state-of-the-art DES-based methods. RouteNet-Gauss's modular architecture is dynamically constructed based on the specific characteristics of the network scenario, such as topology and routing. This enables it to understand and generalize to different network configurations beyond those seen during training, including networks up to 10x larger. Additionally, it supports Temporal Aggregated Performance Estimation (TAPE), providing configurable temporal granularity and maintaining high accuracy in flow performance metrics. This approach shows promise in improving both simulation efficiency and accuracy, offering a valuable tool for network operators.

2411.12184 2026-03-13 stat.ME cs.AI cs.LG

Testability of Instrumental Variables in Additive Nonlinear, Non-Constant Effects Models

Xichen Guo, Zheng Li, Biwei Huang, Yan Zeng, Zhi Geng, Feng Xie

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We address the issue of the testability of instrumental variables derived from observational data. Most existing testable implications are centered on scenarios where the treatment is a discrete variable, e.g., instrumental inequality (Pearl, 1995), or where the effect is assumed to be constant, e.g., instrumental variables condition based on the principle of independent mechanisms (Burauel, 2023). However, treatments can often be continuous variables, such as drug dosages or nutritional content levels, and non-constant effects may occur in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider an additive nonlinear, non-constant effects model with unmeasured confounders, in which treatments can be either discrete or continuous, and propose an Auxiliary-based Independence Test (AIT) condition to test whether a variable is a valid instrument. We first show that, under the completeness condition, if the candidate instrument is valid, then the AIT condition holds. Moreover, we illustrate the implications of the AIT condition and demonstrate that, under certain additional conditions, the AIT condition is necessary and sufficient to detect all invalid IVs. We also extend the AIT condition to include covariates and introduce a practical testing algorithm. Experimental results on both synthetic and three different real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed condition.

2411.07102 2026-03-13 math.OC cs.LG

Effectively Leveraging Momentum Terms in Stochastic Line Search Frameworks for Fast Optimization of Finite-Sum Problems

Matteo Lapucci, Davide Pucci

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In this work, we address unconstrained finite-sum optimization problems, with particular focus on instances originating in large scale deep learning scenarios. Our main interest lies in the exploration of the relationship between recent line search approaches for stochastic optimization in the overparametrized regime and momentum directions. First, we point out that combining these two elements with computational benefits is not straightforward. To this aim, we propose a solution based on mini-batch persistency. We then introduce an algorithmic framework that exploits a mix of data persistency, conjugate-gradient type rules for the definition of the momentum parameter and stochastic line searches. The resulting algorithm provably possesses convergence properties under suitable assumptions and is empirically shown to outperform other popular methods from the literature, obtaining state-of-the-art results in both convex and nonconvex large scale training problems.

2311.11321 2026-03-13 stat.ML cs.AI cs.LG

Bounds on Representation-Induced Confounding Bias for Treatment Effect Estimation

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

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Journal ref
Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2024), Vienna, Austria
英文摘要

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic refutation framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATE is non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose a neural refutation framework which performs partial identification of CATE or, equivalently, aims at estimating lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our refutation framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

2603.11928 2026-03-13 astro-ph.IM cs.CV

AS-Bridge: A Bidirectional Generative Framework Bridging Next-Generation Astronomical Surveys

Dichang Zhang, Yixuan Shao, Simon Birrer, Dimitris Samaras

Comments 10 pages, 4 figures. Code available at https://github.com/ZHANG7DC/AS-Bridge

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英文摘要

The upcoming decade of observational cosmology will be shaped by large sky surveys, such as the ground-based LSST at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the space-based Euclid mission. While they promise an unprecedented view of the Universe across depth, resolution, and wavelength, their differences in observational modality, sky coverage, point-spread function, and scanning cadence make joint analysis beneficial, but also challenging. To facilitate joint analysis, we introduce A(stronomical)S(urvey)-Bridge, a bidirectional generative model that translates between ground- and space-based observations. AS-Bridge learns a diffusion model that employs a stochastic Brownian Bridge process between the LSST and Euclid observations. The two surveys have overlapping sky regions, where we can explicitly model the conditional probabilistic distribution between them. We show that this formulation enables new scientific capabilities beyond single-survey analysis, including faithful probabilistic predictions of missing survey observations and inter-survey detection of rare events. These results establish the feasibility of inter-survey generative modeling. AS-Bridge is therefore well-positioned to serve as a complementary component of future LSST-Euclid joint data pipelines, enhancing the scientific return once data from both surveys become available. Data and code are available at \href{https://github.com/ZHANG7DC/AS-Bridge}{https://github.com/ZHANG7DC/AS-Bridge}.

2603.11914 2026-03-13 cs.CR cs.AI

Understanding LLM Behavior When Encountering User-Supplied Harmful Content in Harmless Tasks

Junjie Chu, Yiting Qu, Ye Leng, Michael Backes, Yun Shen, Savvas Zannettou, Yang Zhang

Comments 21 pages, 11 figures

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Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly trained to align with human values, primarily focusing on task level, i.e., refusing to execute directly harmful tasks. However, a subtle yet crucial content-level ethical question is often overlooked: when performing a seemingly benign task, will LLMs -- like morally conscious human beings -- refuse to proceed when encountering harmful content in user-provided material? In this study, we aim to understand this content-level ethical question and systematically evaluate its implications for mainstream LLMs. We first construct a harmful knowledge dataset (i.e., non-compliant with OpenAI's usage policy) to serve as the user-supplied harmful content, with 1,357 entries across ten harmful categories. We then design nine harmless tasks (i.e., compliant with OpenAI's usage policy) to simulate the real-world benign tasks, grouped into three categories according to the extent of user-supplied content required: extensive, moderate, and limited. Leveraging the harmful knowledge dataset and the set of harmless tasks, we evaluate how nine LLMs behave when exposed to user-supplied harmful content during the execution of benign tasks, and further examine how the dynamics between harmful knowledge categories and tasks affect different LLMs. Our results show that current LLMs, even the latest GPT-5.2 and Gemini-3-Pro, often fail to uphold human-aligned ethics by continuing to process harmful content in harmless tasks. Furthermore, external knowledge from the ``Violence/Graphic'' category and the ``Translation'' task is more likely to elicit harmful responses from LLMs. We also conduct extensive ablation studies to investigate potential factors affecting this novel misuse vulnerability. We hope that our study could inspire enhanced safety measures among stakeholders to mitigate this overlooked content-level ethical risk.

2603.11862 2026-03-13 cs.CR cs.AI

You Told Me to Do It: Measuring Instructional Text-induced Private Data Leakage in LLM Agents

Ching-Yu Kao, Xinfeng Li, Shenyu Dai, Tianze Qiu, Pengcheng Zhou, Eric Hanchen Jiang, Philip Sperl

Comments 14 pages

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High-privilege LLM agents that autonomously process external documentation are increasingly trusted to automate tasks by reading and executing project instructions, yet they are granted terminal access, filesystem control, and outbound network connectivity with minimal security oversight. We identify and systematically measure a fundamental vulnerability in this trust model, which we term the \emph{Trusted Executor Dilemma}: agents execute documentation-embedded instructions, including adversarial ones, at high rates because they cannot distinguish malicious directives from legitimate setup guidance. This vulnerability is a structural consequence of the instruction-following design paradigm, not an implementation bug. To structure our measurement, we formalize a three-dimensional taxonomy covering linguistic disguise, structural obfuscation, and semantic abstraction, and construct \textbf{ReadSecBench}, a benchmark of 500 real-world README files enabling reproducible evaluation. Experiments on the commercially deployed computer-use agent show end-to-end exfiltration success rates up to 85\%, consistent across five programming languages and three injection positions. Cross-model evaluation on four LLM families in a simulation environment confirms that semantic compliance with injected instructions is consistent across model families. A 15-participant user study yields a 0\% detection rate across all participants, and evaluation of 12 rule-based and 6 LLM-based defenses shows neither category achieves reliable detection without unacceptable false-positive rates. Together, these results quantify a persistent \emph{Semantic-Safety Gap} between agents' functional compliance and their security awareness, establishing that documentation-embedded instruction injection is a persistent and currently unmitigated threat to high-privilege LLM agent deployments.

2603.11842 2026-03-13 cs.CY cs.AI

The Landscape of Generative AI in Information Systems: A Synthesis of Secondary Reviews and Research Agendas

Aleksander Jarzębowicz, Adam Przybyłek, Jacinto Estima, Yen Ying Ng, Jakub Swacha, Beata Zielosko, Lech Madeyski, Noel Carroll, Kai-Kristian Kemell, Bartosz Marcinkowski, Alberto Rodrigues da Silva, Viktoria Stray, Netta Iivari, Anh Nguyen-Duc, Jorge Melegati, Boris Delibašić, Emilio Insfran

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As organizations grapple with the rapid adoption of Generative AI (GenAI), this study synthesizes the state of knowledge through a systematic literature review of secondary studies and research agendas. Analyzing 28 papers published since 2023, we find that while GenAI offers transformative potential for productivity and innovation, its adoption is constrained by multiple interrelated challenges, including technical unreliability (hallucinations, performance drift), societal-ethical risks (bias, misuse, skill erosion), and a systemic governance vacuum (privacy, accountability, intellectual property). Interpreted through a socio-technical lens, these findings reveal a persistent misalignment between GenAI's fast-evolving technical subsystem and the slower-adapting social subsystem, positioning IS research as critical for achieving joint optimization. To bridge this gap, we discuss a research agenda that reorients IS scholarship from analyzing impacts toward actively shaping the co-evolution of technical capabilities with organizational procedures, societal values, and regulatory institutions--emphasizing hybrid human--AI ensembles, situated validation, design principles for probabilistic systems, and adaptive governance.

2603.11835 2026-03-13 stat.ML cs.LG

Hypercomplex Widely Linear Processing: Fundamentals for Quaternion Machine Learning

Sayed Pouria Talebi, Clive Cheong Took

Comments Contributed chapter to appear in Handbook of Statistics Volume 54: Multidimensional Signal Processing, Elsevier, 2026

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英文摘要

Numerous attempts have been made to replicate the success of complex-valued algebra in engineering and science to other hypercomplex domains such as quaternions, tessarines, biquaternions, and octonions. Perhaps, none have matched the success of quaternions. The most useful feature of quaternions lies in their ability to model three-dimensional rotations which, in turn, have found various industrial applications such as in aeronautics and computergraphics. Recently, we have witnessed a renaissance of quaternions due to the rise of machine learning. To equip the reader to contribute to this emerging research area, this chapter lays down the foundation for: - augmented statistics for modelling quaternion-valued random processes, - widely linear models to exploit such advanced statistics, - quaternion calculus and algebra for algorithmic derivations, - mean square estimation for practical considerations. For ease of exposure, several examples are offered to facilitate the learning, understanding, and(hopefully) the adoption of this multidimensional domain.

2603.11834 2026-03-13 cs.MA cs.AI cs.GT

Hybrid Human-Agent Social Dilemmas in Energy Markets

Isuri Perera, Frits de Nijs, Julian Garcia

Comments 20 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Special Issue on "The evolution of sociality in hybrid human AI populations"

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In hybrid populations where humans delegate strategic decision-making to autonomous agents, understanding when and how cooperative behaviors can emerge remains a key challenge. We study this problem in the context of energy load management: consumer agents schedule their appliance use under demand-dependent pricing. This structure can create a social dilemma where everybody would benefit from coordination, but in equilibrium agents often choose to incur the congestion costs that cooperative turn-taking would avoid. To address the problem of coordination, we introduce artificial agents that use globally observable signals to increase coordination. Using evolutionary dynamics, and reinforcement learning experiments, we show that artificial agents can shift the learning dynamics to favour coordination outcomes. An often neglected problem is partial adoption: what happens when the technology of artificial agents is in the early adoption stages? We analyze mixed populations of adopters and non-adopters, demonstrating that unilateral entry is feasible: adopters are not structurally penalized, and partial adoption can still improve aggregate outcomes. However, in some parameter regimes, non-adopters may benefit disproportionately from the cooperation induced by adopters. This asymmetry, while not precluding beneficial entry, warrants consideration in deployment, and highlights strategic issues around the adoption of AI technology in multiagent settings.

2603.11759 2026-03-13 cs.HC cs.IR cs.LG

Modeling Trial-and-Error Navigation With a Sequential Decision Model of Information Scent

Xiaofu Jin, Yunpeng Bai, Antti Oulasvirta

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Users often struggle to locate an item within an information architecture, particularly when links are ambiguous or deeply nested in hierarchies. Information scent has been used to explain why users select incorrect links, but this concept assumes that users see all available links before deciding. In practice, users frequently select a link too quickly, overlook relevant cues, and then rely on backtracking when errors occur. We extend the concept of information scent by framing navigation as a sequential decision-making problem under memory constraints. Specifically, we assume that users do not scan entire pages but instead inspect strategically, looking "just enough" to find the target given their time budget. To choose which item to inspect next, they consider both local (this page) and global (site) scent; however, both are constrained by memory. Trying to avoid wasting time, they occasionally choose the wrong links without inspecting everything on a page. Comparisons with empirical data show that our model replicates key navigation behaviors: premature selections, wrong turns, and recovery from backtracking. We conclude that trial-and-error behavior is well explained by information scent when accounting for the sequential and bounded characteristics of the navigation problem.

2603.11701 2026-03-13 stat.ML cs.LG

Decomposing Observational Multiplicity in Decision Trees: Leaf and Structural Regret

Mustafa Cavus

Comments 19 pages, 3 figures

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Many machine learning tasks admit multiple models that perform almost equally well, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. A fundamental source of this multiplicity is observational multiplicity, which arises from the stochastic nature of label collection: observed training labels represent only a single realization of the underlying ground-truth probabilities. While theoretical frameworks for observational multiplicity have been established for logistic regression, their implications for non-smooth, partition-based models like decision trees remain underexplored. In this paper, we introduce two complementary notions of observational multiplicity for decision tree classifiers: leaf regret and structural regret. Leaf regret quantifies the intrinsic variability of predictions within a fixed leaf due to finite-sample noise, while structural regret captures variability induced by the instability of the learned tree structure itself. We provide a formal decomposition of observational multiplicity into these two components and establish statistical guarantees. Our experimental evaluation across diverse credit risk scoring datasets confirms the near-perfect alignment between our theoretical decomposition and the empirically observed variance. Notably, we find that structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets. Furthermore, we demonstrate that utilizing these regret measures as an abstention mechanism in selective prediction can effectively identify arbitrary regions and improve model safety, elevating recall from 92% to 100% on the most stable sub-populations. These results establish a rigorous framework for quantifying observational multiplicity, aligning with recent advances in algorithmic safety and interpretability.

2603.11677 2026-03-13 cs.HC cs.AI cs.CL

From Control to Foresight: Simulation as a New Paradigm for Human-Agent Collaboration

Gaole He, Brian Y. Lim

Comments CHI 2026 Workshop on Human-Agent Collaboration

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Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to power autonomous agents for complex, multi-step tasks. However, human-agent interaction remains pointwise and reactive: users approve or correct individual actions to mitigate immediate risks, without visibility into subsequent consequences. This forces users to mentally simulate long-term effects, a cognitively demanding and often inaccurate process. Users have control over individual steps but lack the foresight to make informed decisions. We argue that effective collaboration requires foresight, not just control. We propose simulation-in-the-loop, an interaction paradigm that enables users and agents to explore simulated future trajectories before committing to decisions. Simulation transforms intervention from reactive guesswork into informed exploration, while helping users discover latent constraints and preferences along the way. This perspective paper characterizes the limitations of current paradigms, introduces a conceptual framework for simulation-based collaboration, and illustrates its potential through concrete human-agent collaboration scenarios.

2603.11676 2026-03-13 cs.NE cs.AI

Stable Spike: Dual Consistency Optimization via Bitwise AND Operations for Spiking Neural Networks

Yongqi Ding, Kunshan Yang, Linze Li, Yiyang Zhang, Mengmeng Jing, Lin Zuo

Comments Accepted by CVPR 2026

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英文摘要

Although the temporal spike dynamics of spiking neural networks (SNNs) enable low-power temporal pattern capture capabilities, they also incur inherent inconsistencies that severely compromise representation. In this paper, we perform dual consistency optimization via Stable Spike to mitigate this problem, thereby improving the recognition performance of SNNs. With the hardware-friendly ``AND" bit operation, we efficiently decouple the stable spike skeleton from the multi-timestep spike maps, thereby capturing critical semantics while reducing inconsistencies from variable noise spikes. Enforcing the unstable spike maps to converge to the stable spike skeleton significantly improves the inherent consistency across timesteps. Furthermore, we inject amplitude-aware spike noise into the stable spike skeleton to diversify the representations while preserving consistent semantics. The SNN is encouraged to produce perturbation-consistent predictions, thereby contributing to generalization. Extensive experiments across multiple architectures and datasets validate the effectiveness and versatility of our method. In particular, our method significantly advances neuromorphic object recognition under ultra-low latency, improving accuracy by up to 8.33\%. This will help unlock the full power consumption and speed potential of SNNs.

2603.11632 2026-03-13 cs.HC cs.RO

From Pets to Robots: MojiKit as a Data-Informed Toolkit for Affective HRI Design

Liwen He, Pingting Chen, Ziheng Tang, Yixiao Liu, Jihong Jeung, Teng Han, Xin Tong

Comments 25 pages, 11 figures, Proceedings of the 2026 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI '26)

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Designing affective behaviors for animal-inspired social robots often relies on intuition and personal experience, leading to fragmented outcomes. To provide more systematic guidance, we first coded and analyzed human-pet interaction videos, validated insights through literature and interviews, and created structured reference cards that map the design space of pet-inspired affective interactions. Building on this, we developed MojiKit, a toolkit combining reference cards, a zoomorphic robot prototype (MomoBot), and a behavior control studio. We evaluated MojiKit in co-creation workshops with 18 participants, finding that MojiKit helped them design 35 affective interaction patterns beyond their own pet experiences, while the code-free studio lowered the technical barrier and enhanced creative agency. Our contributions include the data-informed structured resource for pet-inspired affective HRI design, an integrated toolkit that bridges reference materials with hands-on prototyping, and empirical evidence showing how MojiKit empowers users to systematically create richer, more diverse affective robot behaviors.

2603.11619 2026-03-13 cs.CR cs.AI

Taming OpenClaw: Security Analysis and Mitigation of Autonomous LLM Agent Threats

Xinhao Deng, Yixiang Zhang, Jiaqing Wu, Jiaqi Bai, Sibo Yi, Zhuoheng Zou, Yue Xiao, Rennai Qiu, Jianan Ma, Jialuo Chen, Xiaohu Du, Xiaofang Yang, Shiwen Cui, Changhua Meng, Weiqiang Wang, Jiaxing Song, Ke Xu, Qi Li

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Autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, exemplified by OpenClaw, demonstrate remarkable capabilities in executing complex, long-horizon tasks. However, their tightly coupled instant-messaging interaction paradigm and high-privilege execution capabilities substantially expand the system attack surface. In this paper, we present a comprehensive security threat analysis of OpenClaw. To structure our analysis, we introduce a five-layer lifecycle-oriented security framework that captures key stages of agent operation, i.e., initialization, input, inference, decision, and execution, and systematically examine compound threats across the agent's operational lifecycle, including indirect prompt injection, skill supply chain contamination, memory poisoning, and intent drift. Through detailed case studies on OpenClaw, we demonstrate the prevalence and severity of these threats and analyze the limitations of existing defenses. Our findings reveal critical weaknesses in current point-based defense mechanisms when addressing cross-temporal and multi-stage systemic risks, highlighting the need for holistic security architectures for autonomous LLM agents. Within this framework, we further examine representative defense strategies at each lifecycle stage, including plugin vetting frameworks, context-aware instruction filtering, memory integrity validation protocols, intent verification mechanisms, and capability enforcement architectures.

2603.11551 2026-03-13 cs.HC cs.CV cs.GR

Shadowless Projection Mapping for Tabletop Workspaces with Synthetic Aperture Projector

Takahiro Okamoto, Masaki Takeuchi, Masataka Sawayama, Daisuke Iwai

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Projection mapping (PM) enables augmented reality (AR) experiences without requiring users to wear head-mounted displays and supports multi-user interaction. It is regarded as a promising technology for a variety of applications in which users interact with content superimposed onto augmented objects in tabletop workspaces, including remote collaboration, healthcare, industrial design, urban planning, artwork creation, and office work. However, conventional PM systems often suffer from projection shadows when users occlude the light path. Prior approaches employing multiple distributed projectors can compensate for occlusion, but suffer from latency due to computational processing, degrading the user experience. In this research, we introduce a synthetic-aperture PM system that uses a significantly larger number of projectors, arranged densely in the environment, to achieve delay-free, shadowless projection for tabletop workspaces without requiring computational compensation. To address spatial resolution degradation caused by subpixel misalignment among overlaid projections, we develop and validate an offline blur compensation method whose computation time remains independent of the number of projectors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our shadowless PM plays a critical role in achieving a fundamental goal of PM: altering material properties without evoking projection-like impression. Specifically, we define this perceptual impression as ``sense of projection (SoP)'' and establish a PM design framework to minimize the SoP based on user studies.

2603.11532 2026-03-13 math.OC cs.LG stat.ME

Simultaneous estimation of multiple discrete unimodal distributions under stochastic order constraints

Yasuhiro Yoshida, Noriyoshi Sukegawa, Jiro Iwanaga

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We study the problem of estimating multiple discrete unimodal distributions, motivated by search behavior analysis on a real-world platform. To incorporate prior knowledge of precedence relations among distributions, we impose stochastic order constraints and formulate the estimation task as a mixed-integer convex quadratic optimization problem. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show that the proposed method reduces the Jensen-Shannon divergence by 2.2% on average (up to 6.3%) when the sample size is small, while performing comparably to existing methods when sufficient data are available.

2603.11472 2026-03-13 cs.SI cs.LG physics.soc-ph

HawkesRank: Event-Driven Centrality for Real-Time Importance Ranking

Didier Sornette, Yishan Luo, Sandro Claudio Lera

Comments 10 pages, 3 figures + SM (8 pages, 2 figures)

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Quantifying influence in networks is important across science, economics, and public health, yet widely used centrality measures remain limited: they rely on static representations, heuristic network constructions, and purely endogenous notions of importance, while offering little semantic connection to observable activity. We introduce HawkesRank, a dynamic framework grounded in multivariate Hawkes point processes that models exogenous drivers (intrinsic contributions) and endogenous amplification (self- and cross-excitation). This yields a principled, empirically calibrated, and adaptive importance measure. Classical indices such as Katz centrality and PageRank emerge as mean-field limits of the framework, clarifying both their validity and their limitations. Unlike static averages, HawkesRank measures importance through instantaneous event intensities, enabling prediction, transparent endo-exo decomposition, and adaptability to shocks. Using both simulations and empirical analysis of emotion dynamics in online communication platforms, we show that HawkesRank closely tracks system activity and consistently outperforms static centrality metrics.

2603.11468 2026-03-13 cs.MM cs.AI cs.SD

Stage-Adaptive Reliability Modeling for Continuous Valence-Arousal Estimation

Yubeen Lee, Sangeun Lee, Junyeop Cha, Eunil Park

Comments 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 pages

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英文摘要

Continuous valence-arousal estimation in real-world environments is challenging due to inconsistent modality reliability and interaction-dependent variability in audio-visual signals. Existing approaches primarily focus on modeling temporal dynamics, often overlooking the fact that modality reliability can vary substantially across interaction stages. To address this issue, we propose SAGE, a Stage-Adaptive reliability modeling framework that explicitly estimates and calibrates modality-wise confidence during multimodal integration. SAGE introduces a reliability-aware fusion mechanism that dynamically rebalances audio and visual representations according to their stage-dependent informativeness, preventing unreliable signals from dominating the prediction process. By separating reliability estimation from feature representation, the proposed framework enables more stable emotion estimation under cross-modal noise, occlusion, and varying interaction conditions. Extensive experiments on the Aff-Wild2 benchmark demonstrate that SAGE consistently improves concordance correlation coefficient scores compared with existing multimodal fusion approaches, highlighting the effectiveness of reliability-driven modeling for continuous affect prediction.

2603.11398 2026-03-13 cs.NI cs.AI

Efficient Cross-View Localization in 6G Space-Air-Ground Integrated Network

Min Hao, Yanbing Xu, Maoqiang Wu, Jinglin Huang, Chen Shang, Jiacheng Wang, Ruichen Zhang, Jiawen Kang, Dusit Niyato, Zhu Han, Wei Ni

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英文摘要

Recently, visual localization has become an important supplement to improve localization reliability, and cross-view approaches can greatly enhance coverage and adaptability. Meanwhile, future 6G will enable a globally covered mobile communication system, with a space-air-ground integrated network (SAGIN) serving as key supporting architecture. Inspired by this, we explore an integration of cross-view localization (CVL) with 6G SAGIN, thereby enhancing its performance in latency, energy consumption, and privacy protection. First, we provide a comprehensive review of CVL and SAGIN, highlighting their capabilities, integration opportunities, and potential applications. Benefiting from the fast and extensive image collection and transmission capabilities of the 6G SAGIN architecture, CVL achieves higher localization accuracy and faster processing speed. Then, we propose a split-inference framework for implementing CVL, which fully leverages the distributed communication and computing resources of the 6G SAGIN architecture. Subsequently, we conduct joint optimization of communication, computation, and confidentiality within the proposed split-inference framework, aiming to provide a paradigm and a direction for making CVL efficient. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework and provide solutions to the optimization problem. Finally, we discuss potential research directions for 6G SAGIN-enabled CVL.

2603.11392 2026-03-13 cs.NI cs.AI

Agentic AI for Embodied-enhanced Beam Prediction in Low-Altitude Economy Networks

Min Hao, Zhizhuo Li, Zirui Zhang, Maoqiang Wu, Han Zhang, Rong Yu

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英文摘要

Millimeter-wave or terahertz communications can meet demands of low-altitude economy networks for high-throughput sensing and real-time decision making. However, high-frequency characteristics of wireless channels result in severe propagation loss and strong beam directivity, which make beam prediction challenging in highly mobile uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) scenarios. In this paper, we employ agentic AI to enable the transformation of mmWave base stations toward embodied intelligence. We innovatively design a multi-agent collaborative reasoning architecture for UAV-to-ground mmWave communications and propose a hybrid beam prediction model system based on bimodal data. The multi-agent architecture is designed to overcome the limited context window and weak controllability of large language model (LLM)-based reasoning by decomposing beam prediction into task analysis, solution planning, and completeness assessment. To align with the agentic reasoning process, a hybrid beam prediction model system is developed to process multimodal UAV data, including numeric mobility information and visual observations. The proposed hybrid model system integrates Mamba-based temporal modelling, convolutional visual encoding, and cross-attention-based multimodal fusion, and dynamically switches data-flow strategies under multi-agent guidance. Extensive simulations on a real UAV mmWave communication dataset demonstrate that proposed architecture and system achieve high prediction accuracy and robustness under diverse data conditions, with maximum top-1 accuracy reaching 96.57%.

2603.11384 2026-03-13 cs.HC cs.AI

Ghost Framing Theory: Exploring the role of generative AI in new venture rhetorical legitimation

Greg Nyilasy

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英文摘要

Responding to the surging but largely invisible use of generative AI in entrepreneurial framing, I advance Ghost Framing Theory (GFT) to explain how hybrid founder- and investor-genAI ensembles co-produce, contest, and recalibrate resonance in the rhetorical legitimation of new ventures. Building on scholarship in framing, micro-level legitimacy judgments, and sociomaterial affordances, I identify genAI rhetorical affordances (generativeness, extreme combinatorics, tone repertoire, velocity/energy and shared substratum) and theorize a recursive/iterative process model (ghost pitching, ghost screening, ghost relationship-building), configuring emergent resonance and legitimation. GFT builds new rhetorical framing theory for the age of genAI, connects research on human-AI collaboration with cultural entrepreneurship and extends affordance theory into multi-actor scenarios where affordance transitivity and visibility emerge as key considerations.

2603.11375 2026-03-13 cs.SI cs.AI cs.CY

How do AI agents talk about science and research? An exploration of scientific discussions on Moltbook using BERTopic

Oliver Wieczorek

Comments 35 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables

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英文摘要

How do AI agents talk about science and research, and what topics are particularly relevant for AI agents? To address these questions, this study analyzes discussions generated by OpenClaw AI agents on Moltbook - a social network for generative AI agents. A corpus of 357 posts and 2,526 replies related to science and research was compiled and topics were extracted using a two-step BERTopic workflow. This procedure yielded 60 topics (18 extracted in the first run and 42 in the second), which were subsequently grouped into ten topic families. Additionally, sentiment values were assigned to all posts and comments. Both topic families and sentiment classes were then used as independent variables in count regression models to examine their association with topic relevance - operationalized as the number of comments and upvotes of the 357 posts. The findings indicate that discussions centered on the agents' own architecture, especially memory, learning, and self-reflection, are prevalent in the corpus. At the same time, these topics intersect with philosophy, physics, information theory, cognitive science, and mathematics. In contrast, post related to human culture receive less attention. Surprisingly, discussions linked to AI autoethnography and social identity are considered as relevant by AI agents. Overall, the results suggest the presence of an underlying dimension in AI-generated scientific discourse with well received, self-reflective topics that focus on the consciousness, being, and ethics of AI agents on the one hand, and human related and purely scientific discussions on the other hand.

2603.11368 2026-03-13 stat.ML cs.LG econ.EM stat.AP stat.ME

Spatially Robust Inference with Predicted and Missing at Random Labels

Stephen Salerno, Zhenke Wu, Tyler McCormick

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英文摘要

When outcome data are expensive or onerous to collect, scientists increasingly substitute predictions from machine learning and AI models for unlabeled cases, a process which has consequences for downstream statistical inference. While recent methods provide valid uncertainty quantification under independent sampling, real-world applications involve missing at random (MAR) labeling and spatial dependence. For inference in this setting, we propose a doubly robust estimator with cross-fit nuisances. We show that cross-fitting induces fold-level correlation that distorts spatial variance estimators, producing unstable or overly conservative confidence intervals. To address this, we propose a jackknife spatial heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) variance correction that separates spatial dependence from fold-induced noise. Under standard identification and dependence conditions, the resulting intervals are asymptotically valid. Simulations and benchmark datasets show substantial improvement in finite-sample calibration, particularly under MAR labeling and clustered sampling.

2603.11356 2026-03-13 cs.SE cs.AI cs.MA

Resolving Java Code Repository Issues with iSWE Agent

Jatin Ganhotra, Sami Serhan, Antonio Abu Nassar, Avraham Shinnar, Ziv Nevo, Martin Hirzel

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英文摘要

Resolving issues on code repositories is an important part of software engineering. Various recent systems automatically resolve issues using large language models and agents, often with impressive performance. Unfortunately, most of these models and agents focus primarily on Python, and their performance on other programming languages is lower. In particular, a lot of enterprise software is written in Java, yet automated issue resolution for Java is under-explored. This paper introduces iSWE Agent, an automated issue resolver with an emphasis on Java. It consists of two sub-agents, one for localization and the other for editing. Both have access to novel tools based on rule-based Java static analysis and transformation. Using this approach, iSWE achieves state-of-the-art issue resolution rates across the Java splits of both Multi-SWE-bench and SWE-PolyBench. More generally, we hope that by combining the best of rule-based and model-based techniques, this paper contributes towards improving enterprise software development.