Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value analysis for infinite correlated systems remains an open challenge, we propose a practical framework for handling a large but finite number of correlated time series. We develop our approach for finance as a concrete example but emphasize its generality. We study the extremal behavior of high-frequency stock returns after rotating them into the eigenbasis of the correlation matrix. This separates and extracts various collective effects, including information on the correlated market as a whole and on correlated sectoral behavior from idiosyncratic features, while allowing us to use univariate tools of extreme value analysis. This holds even for high-frequency data where discretization effects normally complicate analysis. We employ a peaks-over-threshold approach and thereby fully avoid the analysis of block maxima. We estimate the tail shape of the rotated returns while explicitly accounting for nonstationarity, a key feature in finance and many other complex systems. Our framework facilitates tail risk estimation relative to larger trends and intraday seasonalities at both market and sectoral levels.

This paper analyses how firms' skill development strategies affect their propensity to introduce innovation. We develop an adjustment-cost framework that links human capital theory and institutionalist and evolutionary approaches, considering innovation as an activity that entails costs in labour adjustment arising either from the training activities of workers or the recruitment of skilled employees. Using a two-wave panel of Italian manufacturing firms observed in 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, we analyse firms' adoption of total, product, process, and circular innovation as a function of internal training practices and of external skills acquisition. Overall, the empirical analysis confirms the expected positive relationship between training and innovation, while also revealing important nuances in the workforce upskilling strategies required for different types of innovation. Moreover, while training activities and skills development are essential across all forms of innovation, our findings indicate that internal training is particularly effective in supporting the implementation of circular innovations. By contrast, external recruitment appears to be consistently necessary whenever innovations are introduced, regardless of their type.

This paper develops a robust parametric framework for jump detection in discretely observed CKLS-type jump-diffusion processes with high-frequency asymptotics, based on the minimum density power divergence estimator (MDPDE). The methodology exploits the intrinsic asymptotic scale separation between diffusion increments, which decay at rate $\sqrt{Δ_n}$, and jump increments, which remain of non-vanishing stochastic magnitude. Using robust MDPDE-based estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficients, we construct standardized residuals whose extremal behavior provides a principled basis for statistical discrimination between continuous and discontinuous components. We establish that, over diffusion intervals, the maximum of the normalized residuals converges to the Gumbel extreme-value distribution, yielding an explicit and asymptotically valid detection threshold. Building on this result, we prove classification consistency of the proposed robust detection procedure: the probability of correctly identifying all jump and diffusion increments converges to one under proper asymptotics. The MDPDE-based normalization attenuates the influence of atypical increments and stabilizes the detection boundary in the presence of discontinuities. Simulation results confirm that robustness improves finite-sample stability and reduces spurious detections without compromising asymptotic validity. The proposed methodology provides a theoretically rigorous and practically resilient robust approach to jump identification in high-frequency stochastic systems.

This paper studies patenting trends in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics from 1980 to 2019. We introduce a novel distinction between traditional robotics and robotics embedding AI functionalities. Using patent data and a time-series econometric approach, we examine whether these domains share common long-run dynamics and how their trajectories differ across major innovation systems. Three main findings emerge. First, patenting activity in core AI, traditional robots, and AI-enhanced robots follows distinct trajectories, with AI-enhanced robotics accelerating sharply from the early 2010s. Second, structural breaks occur predominantly after 2010, indicating an acceleration in the technological dynamics associated with AI diffusion. Third, long-run relationships between AI and robotics vary systematically across countries: China exhibits strong integration between core AI and AI-enhanced robots, alongside a substantial contribution from universities and the public sector, whereas the United States displays a more market-oriented patenting structure and weaker integration between AI and robots. Europe, Japan, and South Korea show intermediate patterns.

We obtain a probabilistic solution to linear-quadratic optimal control problems with state constraints. Given a closed set $\mathcal{D}\subseteq [0,T]\times\mathbb{R}^d$, a diffusion $X$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ must be linearly controlled in order to keep the time-space process $(t,X_t)$ inside the set $\mathcal{C}:=([0,T]\times\mathbb{R}^d)\setminus\mathcal{D}$, while at the same time minimising an expected cost that depends on the state $(t,X_t)$ and is quadratic in the speed of the control exerted. We find a probabilistic representation for the value function and an optimal control under a set of mild sufficient conditions concerning the coefficients of the underlying dynamics and the regularity of the set $\mathcal{D}$. The optimally controlled dynamics is in strong form, in the sense that it is adapted to the filtration generated by the driving Brownian motion. Fully explicit formulae are presented in some relevant examples.

Artificial intelligence is undergoing a structural transformation marked by the rise of agentic systems capable of open-ended action trajectories, generative representations and outputs, and evolving objectives. These properties introduce structural uncertainty into human-AI teaming (HAT), including uncertainty about behavior trajectories, epistemic grounding, and the stability of governing logics over time. Under such conditions, alignment cannot be secured through agreement on bounded outputs; it must be continuously sustained as plans unfold and priorities shift. We advance Team Situation Awareness (Team SA) theory, grounded in shared perception, comprehension, and projection, as an integrative anchor for this transition. While Team SA remains analytically foundational, its stabilizing logic presumes that shared awareness, once achieved, will support coordinated action through iterative updating. Agentic AI challenges this presumption. Our argument unfolds in two stages: first, we extend Team SA to reconceptualize both human and AI awareness under open-ended agency, including the sensemaking of projection congruence across heterogeneous systems. Second, we interrogate whether the dynamic processes traditionally assumed to stabilize teaming in relational interaction, cognitive learning, and coordination and control continue to function under adaptive autonomy. By distinguishing continuity from tension, we clarify where foundational insights hold and where structural uncertainty introduces strain, and articulate a forward-looking research agenda for HAT. The central challenge of HAT is not whether humans and AI can agree in the moment, but whether they can remain aligned as futures are continuously generated, revised, enacted, and governed over time.

We propose an explainable regime-aware portfolio construction framework based on a strictly causal Wasserstein Hidden Markov Model. The model combines rolling Gaussian HMM inference with predictive model-order selection and template-based identity tracking using the 2-Wasserstein distance between Gaussian components. This allows regime complexity to adapt dynamically while preserving stable economic interpretation. Regime probabilities are embedded into a transaction-cost-aware mean-variance optimization framework and evaluated on a diversified daily cross-asset universe. Relative to equal-weight and SPX buy-and-hold benchmarks, the Wasserstein HMM achieves materially higher risk-adjusted performance with Sharpe ratios of 2.18 versus 1.59 and 1.18 and substantially lower maximum drawdown of negative 5.43 percent versus negative 14.62 percent for SPX. During the early 2025 equity selloff labeled Liberation Day, the strategy dynamically reduced equity exposure and shifted toward defensive assets, mitigating peak-to-trough losses. Compared to a nonparametric KNN conditional-moment estimator using the same features and optimization layer, the parametric regime model produces materially lower turnover and smoother weight evolution. The results demonstrate that regime inference stability, particularly identity preservation and adaptive complexity control, is a first-order determinant of portfolio drawdown and implementation robustness in daily asset allocation.

In the Vasicek credit portfolio model, tail risk is driven primarily by the asset-correlation parameter, yet empirically is subject to correlation risk. We propose a stochastic correlation extension of the Vasicek framework in which the correlation state evolves as a diffusion on the circle. This representation accommodates both non-mean-reverting and mean-reverting dependence regimes via circular Brownian motion and von Mises process, while retaining tractable transition densities. Conditionally on a fixed correlation state, we derive closed or semi-closed form expressions for the joint distribution of two assets, the joint first-passage (default) time distribution, and the joint survival probability. A simulation study quantifies how correlation volatility and persistence reshape joint default-at-horizon, survival, and joint barrier-crossing probabilities beyond marginal volatility effects. An empirical illustration using U.S. bank charge-off rates demonstrates economically interpretable time-variation in a dependence index and shows how inferred stochastic dependence translates into materially different joint tail-event probabilities. Overall, circular diffusion models provide a parsimonious and operationally tractable route to incorporating correlation risk into Vasicek structural credit calculations.

The learning crisis in the Latin American region (i.e., higher rates of students not reaching basic competencies at secondary level) is worrying, particularly post-pandemic given the stronger role of inequality behind achievement. Within this scenario, the concept of student academic resilience (SAR), students who despite coming from disadvantaged backgrounds reach good performance levels, and an analysis of its determinants, are policy relevant. In this paper, using advancements on explainable machine learning methods (the SHAP method) and relying on PISA 2022 data for 9 countries from the region, we identify leading factors behind SAR using diverse indicators. We find that household inputs (books and digital devices), gender, homework, repetition and work intensity are leading factors for one indicator of academic resilience, whereas for other indicator leading drives fall into the school domain: school size, the ratio of PC connected to the internet, STR and teaching quality proxied by certified teachers and professional development rates and school type. Also, we find negative associations of SAR with the length of school closures and barriers for remote learning during the pandemic. The paper's findings adds to the scare regional literature contributing to future policy designs where key features behind SAR can be used to lift disadvantaged students from lower achievement groups towards being academic resilient.

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at all levels. These results remain consistent throughout a challenging 4-year test period (2021-2024) in the German and Spanish power markets and across model architectures, including linear regression, shallow feedforward neural networks, gradient-boosted decision trees, and a state-of-the-art, pretrained transformer. Given that (i) trading of block products is becoming more common and (ii) the computational cost of reconciliation is comparable to that of predicting hourly prices alone, we recommend using it in daily forecasting practice.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made remarkable progress, surpassing human performance on several benchmarks in domains such as mathematics and coding. A key driver of this progress has been the development of benchmark datasets. In contrast, the financial domain poses higher entry barriers due to its demand for specialized expertise, and benchmarks remain relatively scarce compared to those in mathematics or coding. We introduce EDINET-Bench, an open-source Japanese financial benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on challenging tasks such as accounting fraud detection, earnings forecasting, and industry classification. EDINET-Bench is constructed from ten years of annual reports filed by Japanese companies. These tasks require models to process entire annual reports and integrate information across multiple tables and textual sections, demanding expert-level reasoning that is challenging even for human professionals. Our experiments show that even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle in this domain, performing only marginally better than logistic regression in binary classification tasks such as fraud detection and earnings forecasting. Our results show that simply providing reports to LLMs in a straightforward setting is not enough. This highlights the need for benchmark frameworks that better reflect the environments in which financial professionals operate, with richer scaffolding such as realistic simulations and task-specific reasoning support to enable more effective problem solving. We make our dataset and code publicly available to support future research.

We investigate whether and why people might adjust compensation for workers who use AI tools. Across 13 studies (N = 4,956), participants consistently lowered compensation for workers who used AI compared to those who did not. This "AI penalty" is robust across different work scenarios and work tasks, worker statuses, forms and timing of compensation, methods of eliciting compensation, and perceptions of output quality. Moreover, the effect emerges in both hypothetical compensation scenarios as well as real monetary compensation of gig workers. We find that perceived effort and perceived agency -- the degree to which an individual serves as the originating source of the core intellectual or creative contribution in a task -- explain decisions to reduce compensation for AI-users. However, the penalty is not inevitable. Workers who strategically retain creative agency over core tasks recover most of the AI penalty, and employment contracts that make compensation reductions impermissible provide structural means of reducing the AI penalty.

The United States leads the world in the number of mass shootings that occur each year, even as policy making on firearms remains polarized along party lines. In the face of increasing violence and public demand for policy action, we ask whether legislators change their voting behavior on firearm policy in the wake of mass shootings. We estimate the latent gun-policy positions of 14,585 state legislators across all 50 states using roll-call votes on firearm-related bills from 2011 to 2022. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that mass shootings occurring within a legislator's district do not, on average, measurably shift their positionality on firearm policy. This null effect is robust across analyses accounting for legislators' partisanship, their geographic proximity to the shooting, and characteristics of individual shootings. Our findings suggest that even acute, locally salient tragedies fail to cause changes in how legislators vote on firearm policy.

We provide a general HJM framework for forward contracts written on abstract market indices with arbitrary fixing and payment adjustments, and featuring collateralization in any currency denominations. In view of this, we first provide a thorough study of cross-currency markets in the presence of collateral and incompleteness. Then we give a general treatment of collateral dislocations by describing the instantaneous cross-currency basis spreads by means of HJM models, for which we derive appropriate drift conditions. The framework obtained allows us to simultaneously cover forward-looking risky IBOR rates, such as EURIBOR, and backward-looking rates based on overnight rates, such as SOFR. Due to the discrepancies in market conventions of different currency areas created by the benchmark transition, this is pivotal for describing portfolios of interest-rate products that are denominated in multiple currencies. As an example of contract simultaneously depending on all the risk factors that we describe within our framework, we treat cross-currency swaps using our proposed abstract indices.

The aim of the research paper is to understand the sustainability challenges faced by resorts mainly luxury in Maldives and to implement the sustainable tourism practices. The Maldives economy is dependent mostly on the fishing, boat building, boat repairing and tourism. Over recent years there is a drastic change that has took place in Maldives in tourism industry. Maldives has progressed to be the upper middle-income country and luxury resorts are the reason for increased GDP in the country. Although there are some practices associated with the luxury resorts to follow in terms of environmental concerns. Present study focuses on the triple bottom line approach and the 12 major Sustainable Tourism Principles as a framework for sustainability practices and its implementation including the challenges associated in Maldives. The paper suggests some recommendations on several paradigm of enforcing laws and regulations, waste management facilities, fostering collaboration along with promoting local agriculture. The study also contemplates on several other areas such as on the impact of sustainability initiatives, coral restoration, and the use of sustainable supply chains. The intent of the current research is to suggest methods to promote the sustainable practices in luxury resort in Maldives.