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2602.10381 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Deep learning outperforms traditional machine learning methods in predicting childhood malnutrition: evidence from survey data

Deepak Bastola, Yang Li

Comments 21 pages, 10 figures

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Childhood malnutrition remains a major public health concern in Nepal and other low-resource settings, while conventional case-finding approaches are labor-intensive and frequently unavailable in remote areas. This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of machine learning and deep learning methodologies for identifying malnutrition among children under five years of age in Nepal. We systematically compared 16 algorithms spanning deep learning, gradient boosting, and traditional machine learning families, using data from the Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2019. A composite malnutrition indicator was constructed by integrating stunting, wasting, and underweight status, and model performance was evaluated using ten metrics, with emphasis on F1-score and recall to account for substantial class imbalance and the high cost of failing to detect malnourished children. Among all models, TabNet demonstrated the best performance, likely attributable to its attention-based architecture, and outperformed both support vector machine and AdaBoost classifiers. A consensus feature importance analysis identified maternal education, household wealth index, and child age as the primary predictors of malnutrition, followed by geographic characteristics, vaccination status, and meal frequency. Collectively, these results demonstrate a scalable, survey-based screening framework for identifying children at elevated risk of malnutrition and for guiding targeted nutritional interventions. The proposed approach supports Nepal's progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and offers a transferable methodological template for similar low-resource settings globally.

2602.10380 2026-02-12 cs.CL cs.AI

The Alignment Bottleneck in Decomposition-Based Claim Verification

Mahmud Elahi Akhter, Federico Ruggeri, Iman Munire Bilal, Rob Procter, Maria Liakata

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Structured claim decomposition is often proposed as a solution for verifying complex, multi-faceted claims, yet empirical results have been inconsistent. We argue that these inconsistencies stem from two overlooked bottlenecks: evidence alignment and sub-claim error profiles. To better understand these factors, we introduce a new dataset of real-world complex claims, featuring temporally bounded evidence and human-annotated sub-claim evidence spans. We evaluate decomposition under two evidence alignment setups: Sub-claim Aligned Evidence (SAE) and Repeated Claim-level Evidence (SRE). Our results reveal that decomposition brings significant performance improvement only when evidence is granular and strictly aligned. By contrast, standard setups that rely on repeated claim-level evidence (SRE) fail to improve and often degrade performance as shown across different datasets and domains (PHEMEPlus, MMM-Fact, COVID-Fact). Furthermore, we demonstrate that in the presence of noisy sub-claim labels, the nature of the error ends up determining downstream robustness. We find that conservative "abstention" significantly reduces error propagation compared to aggressive but incorrect predictions. These findings suggest that future claim decomposition frameworks must prioritize precise evidence synthesis and calibrate the label bias of sub-claim verification models.

2602.10377 2026-02-12 cs.LG cs.CL

Hardware Co-Design Scaling Laws via Roofline Modelling for On-Device LLMs

Luoyang Sun, Jiwen Jiang, Yifeng Ding, Fengfa Li, Yan Song, Haifeng Zhang, Jian Ying, Lei Ren, Kun Zhan, Wei Chen, Yan Xie, Cheng Deng

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Vision-Language-Action Models (VLAs) have emerged as a key paradigm of Physical AI and are increasingly deployed in autonomous vehicles, robots, and smart spaces. In these resource-constrained on-device settings, selecting an appropriate large language model (LLM) backbone is a critical challenge: models must balance accuracy with strict inference latency and hardware efficiency constraints. This makes hardware-software co-design a game-changing requirement for on-device LLM deployment, where each hardware platform demands a tailored architectural solution. We propose a hardware co-design law that jointly captures model accuracy and inference performance. Specifically, we model training loss as an explicit function of architectural hyperparameters and characterise inference latency via roofline modelling. We empirically evaluate 1,942 candidate architectures on NVIDIA Jetson Orin, training 170 selected models for 10B tokens each to fit a scaling law relating architecture to training loss. By coupling this scaling law with latency modelling, we establish a direct accuracy-latency correspondence and identify the Pareto frontier for hardware co-designed LLMs. We further formulate architecture search as a joint optimisation over precision and performance, deriving feasible design regions under industrial hardware and application budgets. Our approach reduces architecture selection from months to days. At the same latency as Qwen2.5-0.5B on the target hardware, our co-designed architecture achieves 19.42% lower perplexity on WikiText-2. To our knowledge, this is the first principled and operational framework for hardware co-design scaling laws in on-device LLM deployment. We will make the code and related checkpoints publicly available.

2602.10371 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Simple LLM Baselines are Competitive for Model Diffing

Elias Kempf, Simon Schrodi, Bartosz Cywiński, Thomas Brox, Neel Nanda, Arthur Conmy

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Standard LLM evaluations only test capabilities or dispositions that evaluators designed them for, missing unexpected differences such as behavioral shifts between model revisions or emergent misaligned tendencies. Model diffing addresses this limitation by automatically surfacing systematic behavioral differences. Recent approaches include LLM-based methods that generate natural language descriptions and sparse autoencoder (SAE)-based methods that identify interpretable features. However, no systematic comparison of these approaches exists nor are there established evaluation criteria. We address this gap by proposing evaluation metrics for key desiderata (generalization, interestingness, and abstraction level) and use these to compare existing methods. Our results show that an improved LLM-based baseline performs comparably to the SAE-based method while typically surfacing more abstract behavioral differences.

2602.10367 2026-02-12 cs.AI

LiveMedBench: A Contamination-Free Medical Benchmark for LLMs with Automated Rubric Evaluation

Zhiling Yan, Dingjie Song, Zhe Fang, Yisheng Ji, Xiang Li, Quanzheng Li, Lichao Sun

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The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes clinical settings demands rigorous and reliable evaluation. However, existing medical benchmarks remain static, suffering from two critical limitations: (1) data contamination, where test sets inadvertently leak into training corpora, leading to inflated performance estimates; and (2) temporal misalignment, failing to capture the rapid evolution of medical knowledge. Furthermore, current evaluation metrics for open-ended clinical reasoning often rely on either shallow lexical overlap (e.g., ROUGE) or subjective LLM-as-a-Judge scoring, both inadequate for verifying clinical correctness. To bridge these gaps, we introduce LiveMedBench, a continuously updated, contamination-free, and rubric-based benchmark that weekly harvests real-world clinical cases from online medical communities, ensuring strict temporal separation from model training data. We propose a Multi-Agent Clinical Curation Framework that filters raw data noise and validates clinical integrity against evidence-based medical principles. For evaluation, we develop an Automated Rubric-based Evaluation Framework that decomposes physician responses into granular, case-specific criteria, achieving substantially stronger alignment with expert physicians than LLM-as-a-Judge. To date, LiveMedBench comprises 2,756 real-world cases spanning 38 medical specialties and multiple languages, paired with 16,702 unique evaluation criteria. Extensive evaluation of 38 LLMs reveals that even the best-performing model achieves only 39.2%, and 84% of models exhibit performance degradation on post-cutoff cases, confirming pervasive data contamination risks. Error analysis further identifies contextual application-not factual knowledge-as the dominant bottleneck, with 35-48% of failures stemming from the inability to tailor medical knowledge to patient-specific constraints.

2602.10365 2026-02-12 cs.RO math.OC

Solving Geodesic Equations with Composite Bernstein Polynomials for Trajectory Planning

Nick Gorman, Gage MacLin, Maxwell Hammond, Venanzio Cichella

Comments Accepted for the 2026 IEEE Aerospace Conference

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This work presents a trajectory planning method based on composite Bernstein polynomials for autonomous systems navigating complex environments. The method is implemented in a symbolic optimization framework that enables continuous paths and precise control over trajectory shape. Trajectories are planned over a cost surface that encodes obstacles as continuous fields rather than discrete boundaries. Regions near obstacles are assigned higher costs, naturally encouraging the trajectory to maintain a safe distance while still allowing efficient routing through constrained spaces. The use of composite Bernstein polynomials preserves continuity while enabling fine control over local curvature to satisfy geodesic constraints. The symbolic representation supports exact derivatives, improving optimization efficiency. The method applies to both two- and three-dimensional environments and is suitable for ground, aerial, underwater, and space systems. In spacecraft trajectory planning, for example, it enables the generation of continuous, dynamically feasible trajectories with high numerical efficiency, making it well suited for orbital maneuvers, rendezvous and proximity operations, cluttered gravitational environments, and planetary exploration missions with limited onboard computational resources. Demonstrations show that the approach efficiently generates smooth, collision-free paths in scenarios with multiple obstacles, maintaining clearance without extensive sampling or post-processing. The optimization incorporates three constraint types: (1) a Gaussian surface inequality enforcing minimum obstacle clearance; (2) geodesic equations guiding the path along locally efficient directions on the cost surface; and (3) boundary constraints enforcing fixed start and end conditions. The method can serve as a standalone planner or as an initializer for more complex motion planning problems.

2602.10364 2026-02-12 cs.CV

Comp2Comp: Open-Source Software with FDA-Cleared Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for Computed Tomography Image Analysis

Adrit Rao, Malte Jensen, Andrea T. Fisher, Louis Blankemeier, Pauline Berens, Arash Fereydooni, Seth Lirette, Eren Alkan, Felipe C. Kitamura, Juan M. Zambrano Chaves, Eduardo Reis, Arjun Desai, Marc H. Willis, Jason Hom, Andrew Johnston, Leon Lenchik, Robert D. Boutin, Eduardo M. J. M. Farina, Augusto S. Serpa, Marcelo S. Takahashi, Jordan Perchik, Steven A. Rothenberg, Jamie L. Schroeder, Ross Filice, Leonardo K. Bittencourt, Hari Trivedi, Marly van Assen, John Mongan, Kimberly Kallianos, Oliver Aalami, Akshay S. Chaudhari

Comments Adrit Rao, Malte Jensen, Andrea T. Fisher, Louis Blankemeier: Co-first authors. Oliver Aalami, Akshay S. Chaudhari: Co-senior authors

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Artificial intelligence allows automatic extraction of imaging biomarkers from already-acquired radiologic images. This paradigm of opportunistic imaging adds value to medical imaging without additional imaging costs or patient radiation exposure. However, many open-source image analysis solutions lack rigorous validation while commercial solutions lack transparency, leading to unexpected failures when deployed. Here, we report development and validation for two of the first fully open-sourced, FDA-510(k)-cleared deep learning pipelines to mitigate both challenges: Abdominal Aortic Quantification (AAQ) and Bone Mineral Density (BMD) estimation are both offered within the Comp2Comp package for opportunistic analysis of computed tomography scans. AAQ segments the abdominal aorta to assess aneurysm size; BMD segments vertebral bodies to estimate trabecular bone density and osteoporosis risk. AAQ-derived maximal aortic diameters were compared against radiologist ground-truth measurements on 258 patient scans enriched for abdominal aortic aneurysms from four external institutions. BMD binary classifications (low vs. normal bone density) were compared against concurrent DXA scan ground truths obtained on 371 patient scans from four external institutions. AAQ had an overall mean absolute error of 1.57 mm (95% CI 1.38-1.80 mm). BMD had a sensitivity of 81.0% (95% CI 74.0-86.8%) and specificity of 78.4% (95% CI 72.3-83.7%). Comp2Comp AAQ and BMD demonstrated sufficient accuracy for clinical use. Open-sourcing these algorithms improves transparency of typically opaque FDA clearance processes, allows hospitals to test the algorithms before cumbersome clinical pilots, and provides researchers with best-in-class methods.

2602.10357 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Theoretical Analysis of Contrastive Learning under Imbalanced Data: From Training Dynamics to a Pruning Solution

Haixu Liao, Yating Zhou, Songyang Zhang, Meng Wang, Shuai Zhang

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Contrastive learning has emerged as a powerful framework for learning generalizable representations, yet its theoretical understanding remains limited, particularly under imbalanced data distributions that are prevalent in real-world applications. Such an imbalance can degrade representation quality and induce biased model behavior, yet a rigorous characterization of these effects is lacking. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework to analyze the training dynamics of contrastive learning with Transformer-based encoders under imbalanced data. Our results reveal that neuron weights evolve through three distinct stages of training, with different dynamics for majority features, minority features, and noise. We further show that minority features reduce representational capacity, increase the need for more complex architectures, and hinder the separation of ground-truth features from noise. Inspired by these neuron-level behaviors, we show that pruning restores performance degraded by imbalance and enhances feature separation, offering both conceptual insights and practical guidance. Major theoretical findings are validated through numerical experiments.

2602.10354 2026-02-12 cs.CL cs.LG

Physically Interpretable AlphaEarth Foundation Model Embeddings Enable LLM-Based Land Surface Intelligence

Mashrekur Rahman

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Satellite foundation models produce dense embeddings whose physical interpretability remains poorly understood, limiting their integration into environmental decision systems. Using 12.1 million samples across the Continental United States (2017--2023), we first present a comprehensive interpretability analysis of Google AlphaEarth's 64-dimensional embeddings against 26 environmental variables spanning climate, vegetation, hydrology, temperature, and terrain. Combining linear, nonlinear, and attention-based methods, we show that individual embedding dimensions map onto specific land surface properties, while the full embedding space reconstructs most environmental variables with high fidelity (12 of 26 variables exceed $R^2 > 0.90$; temperature and elevation approach $R^2 = 0.97$). The strongest dimension-variable relationships converge across all three analytical methods and remain robust under spatial block cross-validation (mean $ΔR^2 = 0.017$) and temporally stable across all seven study years (mean inter-year correlation $r = 0.963$). Building on these validated interpretations, we then developed a Land Surface Intelligence system that implements retrieval-augmented generation over a FAISS-indexed embedding database of 12.1 million vectors, translating natural language environmental queries into satellite-grounded assessments. An LLM-as-Judge evaluation across 360 query--response cycles, using four LLMs in rotating generator, system, and judge roles, achieved weighted scores of $μ= 3.74 \pm 0.77$ (scale 1--5), with grounding ($μ= 3.93$) and coherence ($μ= 4.25$) as the strongest criteria. Our results demonstrate that satellite foundation model embeddings are physically structured representations that can be operationalized for environmental and geospatial intelligence.

2602.10350 2026-02-12 cs.CL

When Less Is More? Diagnosing ASR Predictions in Sardinian via Layer-Wise Decoding

Domenico De Cristofaro, Alessandro Vietti, Marianne Pouplier, Aleese Block

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Recent studies have shown that intermediate layers in multilingual speech models often encode more phonetically accurate representations than the final output layer. In this work, we apply a layer-wise decoding strategy to a pretrained Wav2Vec2 model to investigate how phoneme-level predictions evolve across encoder layers, focusing on Campidanese Sardinian, a low-resource language. We show that truncating upper transformer layers leads to improved Phoneme Error Rates (PER), with the best performance achieved not at the final layer, but two layers earlier. Through fine-grained alignment analysis, we find that intermediate predictions better preserve segmental identity, avoid overgeneration, and reduce certain classes of phonological errors. We also introduce the notion of regressive errors, cases where correct predictions at intermediate layers are overwritten by errors at the final layer. These regressions highlight the limitations of surface-level error metrics and reveal how deeper layers may generalize or abstract away from acoustic detail. Our findings support the use of early-layer probing as a diagnostic tool for ASR models, particularly in low-resource settings where standard evaluation metrics may fail to capture linguistically meaningful behavior.

2602.10345 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Identifying Evidence-Based Nudges in Biomedical Literature with Large Language Models

Jaydeep Chauhan, Mark Seidman, Pezhman Raeisian Parvari, Zhi Zheng, Zina Ben-Miled, Cristina Barboi, Andrew Gonzalez, Malaz Boustani

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We present a scalable, AI-powered system that identifies and extracts evidence-based behavioral nudges from unstructured biomedical literature. Nudges are subtle, non-coercive interventions that influence behavior without limiting choice, showing strong impact on health outcomes like medication adherence. However, identifying these interventions from PubMed's 8 million+ articles is a bottleneck. Our system uses a novel multi-stage pipeline: first, hybrid filtering (keywords, TF-IDF, cosine similarity, and a "nudge-term bonus") reduces the corpus to about 81,000 candidates. Second, we use OpenScholar (quantized LLaMA 3.1 8B) to classify papers and extract structured fields like nudge type and target behavior in a single pass, validated against a JSON schema. We evaluated four configurations on a labeled test set (N=197). The best setup (Title/Abstract/Intro) achieved a 67.0% F1 score and 72.0% recall, ideal for discovery. A high-precision variant using self-consistency (7 randomized passes) achieved 100% precision with 12% recall, demonstrating a tunable trade-off for high-trust use cases. This system is being integrated into Agile Nudge+, a real-world platform, to ground LLM-generated interventions in peer-reviewed evidence. This work demonstrates interpretable, domain-specific retrieval pipelines for evidence synthesis and personalized healthcare.

2602.10344 2026-02-12 cs.CV

Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Reconstruction for Digital Holography with Speckle

Xi Chen, Arian Maleki, Shirin Jalali

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In coherent imaging, speckle is statistically modeled as multiplicative noise, posing a fundamental challenge for image reconstruction. While maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) provides a principled framework for speckle mitigation, its application to coherent imaging system such as digital holography with finite apertures is hindered by the prohibitive cost of high-dimensional matrix inversion, especially at high resolutions. This computational burden has prevented the use of MLE-based reconstruction with physically accurate aperture modeling. In this work, we propose a randomized linear algebra approach that enables scalable MLE optimization without explicit matrix inversions in gradient computation. By exploiting the structural properties of sensing matrix and using conjugate gradient for likelihood gradient evaluation, the proposed algorithm supports accurate aperture modeling without the simplifying assumptions commonly imposed for tractability. We term the resulting method projected gradient descent with Monte Carlo estimation (PGD-MC). The proposed PGD-MC framework (i) demonstrates robustness to diverse and physically accurate aperture models, (ii) achieves substantial improvements in reconstruction quality and computational efficiency, and (iii) scales effectively to high-resolution digital holography. Extensive experiments incorporating three representative denoisers as regularization show that PGD-MC provides a flexible and effective MLE-based reconstruction framework for digital holography with finite apertures, consistently outperforming prior Plug-and-Play model-based iterative reconstruction methods in both accuracy and speed. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Computational-Imaging-RU/MC_Maximum_Likelihood_Digital_Holography_Speckle.

2602.10343 2026-02-12 cs.CV cs.LG

Conditional Uncertainty-Aware Political Deepfake Detection with Stochastic Convolutional Neural Networks

Rafael-Petruţ Gardoş

Comments 21 pages, 12 figures, 18 tables

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Recent advances in generative image models have enabled the creation of highly realistic political deepfakes, posing risks to information integrity, public trust, and democratic processes. While automated deepfake detectors are increasingly deployed in moderation and investigative pipelines, most existing systems provide only point predictions and fail to indicate when outputs are unreliable, being an operationally critical limitation in high-stakes political contexts. This work investigates conditional, uncertainty-aware political deepfake detection using stochastic convolutional neural networks within an empirical, decision-oriented reliability framework. Rather than treating uncertainty as a purely Bayesian construct, it is evaluated through observable criteria, including calibration quality, proper scoring rules, and its alignment with prediction errors under both global and confidence-conditioned analyses. A politically focused binary image dataset is constructed via deterministic metadata filtering from a large public real-synthetic corpus. Two pretrained CNN backbones (ResNet-18 and EfficientNet-B4) are fully fine-tuned for classification. Deterministic inference is compared with single-pass stochastic prediction, Monte Carlo dropout with multiple forward passes, temperature scaling, and ensemble-based uncertainty surrogates. Evaluation reports ROC-AUC, thresholded confusion matrices, calibration metrics, and generator-disjoint out-of-distribution performance. Results demonstrate that calibrated probabilistic outputs and uncertainty estimates enable risk-aware moderation policies. A systematic confidence-band analysis further clarifies when uncertainty provides operational value beyond predicted confidence, delineating both the benefits and limitations of uncertainty-aware deepfake detection in political settings.

2602.10329 2026-02-12 cs.CL cs.AI cs.LG

Are More Tokens Rational? Inference-Time Scaling in Language Models as Adaptive Resource Rationality

Zhimin Hu, Riya Roshan, Sashank Varma

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Human reasoning is shaped by resource rationality -- optimizing performance under constraints. Recently, inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm to improve the reasoning performance of Large Language Models by expanding test-time computation. Specifically, instruction-tuned (IT) models explicitly generate long reasoning steps during inference, whereas Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) are trained by reinforcement learning to discover reasoning paths that maximize accuracy. However, it remains unclear whether resource-rationality can emerge from such scaling without explicit reward related to computational costs. We introduce a Variable Attribution Task in which models infer which variables determine outcomes given candidate variables, input-output trials, and predefined logical functions. By varying the number of candidate variables and trials, we systematically manipulate task complexity. Both models exhibit a transition from brute-force to analytic strategies as complexity increases. IT models degrade on XOR and XNOR functions, whereas LRMs remain robust. These findings suggest that models can adjust their reasoning behavior in response to task complexity, even without explicit cost-based reward. It provides compelling evidence that resource rationality is an emergent property of inference-time scaling itself.

2602.10319 2026-02-12 cs.CV

A Low-Rank Defense Method for Adversarial Attack on Diffusion Models

Jiaxuan Zhu, Siyu Huang

Comments Accepted by ICME2025

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Recently, adversarial attacks for diffusion models as well as their fine-tuning process have been developed rapidly. To prevent the abuse of these attack algorithms from affecting the practical application of diffusion models, it is critical to develop corresponding defensive strategies. In this work, we propose an efficient defensive strategy, named Low-Rank Defense (LoRD), to defend the adversarial attack on Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs). LoRD introduces the merging idea and a balance parameter, combined with the low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules, to detect and defend the adversarial samples. Based on LoRD, we build up a defense pipeline that applies the learned LoRD modules to help diffusion models defend against attack algorithms. Our method ensures that the LDM fine-tuned on both adversarial and clean samples can still generate high-quality images. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on facial and landscape images, and our method shows significantly better defense performance compared to the baseline methods.

2602.10305 2026-02-12 cs.LG cs.AI cs.RO

Confounding Robust Continuous Control via Automatic Reward Shaping

Mateo Juliani, Mingxuan Li, Elias Bareinboim

Comments Mateo Juliani and Mingxuan Li contributed equally to this work; accepted in AAMAS 2026

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Reward shaping has been applied widely to accelerate Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents' training. However, a principled way of designing effective reward shaping functions, especially for complex continuous control problems, remains largely under-explained. In this work, we propose to automatically learn a reward shaping function for continuous control problems from offline datasets, potentially contaminated by unobserved confounding variables. Specifically, our method builds upon the recently proposed causal Bellman equation to learn a tight upper bound on the optimal state values, which is then used as the potentials in the Potential-Based Reward Shaping (PBRS) framework. Our proposed reward shaping algorithm is tested with Soft-Actor-Critic (SAC) on multiple commonly used continuous control benchmarks and exhibits strong performance guarantees under unobserved confounders. More broadly, our work marks a solid first step towards confounding robust continuous control from a causal perspective. Code for training our reward shaping functions can be found at https://github.com/mateojuliani/confounding_robust_cont_control.

2602.10303 2026-02-12 cs.LG q-bio.QM stat.ML

ICODEN: Ordinary Differential Equation Neural Networks for Interval-Censored Data

Haoling Wang, Lang Zeng, Tao Sun, Youngjoo Cho, Ying Ding

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Predicting time-to-event outcomes when event times are interval censored is challenging because the exact event time is unobserved. Many existing survival analysis approaches for interval-censored data rely on strong model assumptions or cannot handle high-dimensional predictors. We develop ICODEN, an ordinary differential equation-based neural network for interval-censored data that models the hazard function through deep neural networks and obtains the cumulative hazard by solving an ordinary differential equation. ICODEN does not require the proportional hazards assumption or a prespecified parametric form for the hazard function, thereby permitting flexible survival modeling. Across simulation settings with proportional or non-proportional hazards and both linear and nonlinear covariate effects, ICODEN consistently achieves satisfactory predictive accuracy and remains stable as the number of predictors increases. Applications to data from multiple phases of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and to two Age-Related Eye Disease Studies (AREDS and AREDS2) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) demonstrate ICODEN's robust prediction performance. In both applications, predicting time-to-AD or time-to-late AMD, ICODEN effectively uses hundreds to more than 1,000 SNPs and supports data-driven subgroup identification with differential progression risk profiles. These results establish ICODEN as a practical assumption-lean tool for prediction with interval-censored survival data in high-dimensional biomedical settings.

2602.10300 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law with Neural Ansatz

Huaqing Zhang, Kaiyue Wen, Tengyu Ma

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Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a \textit{Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law} (CPL): a mapping from the \textit{full training configuration} to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a \textit{Neural} Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

2602.10282 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Linear-LLM-SCM: Benchmarking LLMs for Coefficient Elicitation in Linear-Gaussian Causal Models

Kanta Yamaoka, Sumantrak Mukherjee, Thomas Gärtner, David Antony Selby, Stefan Konigorski, Eyke Hüllermeier, Viktor Bengs, Sebastian Josef Vollmer

Comments 16 pages, 4 figures, preprint

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Large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in identifying qualitative causal relations, but their ability to perform quantitative causal reasoning -- estimating effect sizes that parametrize functional relationships -- remains underexplored in continuous domains. We introduce Linear-LLM-SCM, a plug-and-play benchmarking framework for evaluating LLMs on linear Gaussian structural causal model (SCM) parametrization when the DAG is given. The framework decomposes a DAG into local parent-child sets and prompts an LLM to produce a regression-style structural equation per node, which is aggregated and compared against available ground-truth parameters. Our experiments show several challenges in such benchmarking tasks, namely, strong stochasticity in the results in some of the models and susceptibility to DAG misspecification via spurious edges in the continuous domains. Across models, we observe substantial variability in coefficient estimates for some settings and sensitivity to structural and semantic perturbations, highlighting current limitations of LLMs as quantitative causal parameterizers. We also open-sourced the benchmarking framework so that researchers can utilize their DAGs and any off-the-shelf LLMs plug-and-play for evaluation in their domains effortlessly.

2602.10278 2026-02-12 cs.CV cs.AI

ERGO: Excess-Risk-Guided Optimization for High-Fidelity Monocular 3D Gaussian Splatting

Zehua Ma, Hanhui Li, Zhenyu Xie, Xiaonan Luo, Michael Kampffmeyer, Feng Gao, Xiaodan Liang

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Generating 3D content from a single image remains a fundamentally challenging and ill-posed problem due to the inherent absence of geometric and textural information in occluded regions. While state-of-the-art generative models can synthesize auxiliary views to provide additional supervision, these views inevitably contain geometric inconsistencies and textural misalignments that propagate and amplify artifacts during 3D reconstruction. To effectively harness these imperfect supervisory signals, we propose an adaptive optimization framework guided by excess risk decomposition, termed ERGO. Specifically, ERGO decomposes the optimization losses in 3D Gaussian splatting into two components, i.e., excess risk that quantifies the suboptimality gap between current and optimal parameters, and Bayes error that models the irreducible noise inherent in synthesized views. This decomposition enables ERGO to dynamically estimate the view-specific excess risk and adaptively adjust loss weights during optimization. Furthermore, we introduce geometry-aware and texture-aware objectives that complement the excess-risk-derived weighting mechanism, establishing a synergistic global-local optimization paradigm. Consequently, ERGO demonstrates robustness against supervision noise while consistently enhancing both geometric fidelity and textural quality of the reconstructed 3D content. Extensive experiments on the Google Scanned Objects dataset and the OmniObject3D dataset demonstrate the superiority of ERGO over existing state-of-the-art methods.

2602.10266 2026-02-12 cs.LG cs.AI

From Classical to Topological Neural Networks Under Uncertainty

Sarah Harkins Dayton, Layal Bou Hamdan, Ioannis D. Schizas, David L. Boothe, Vasileios Maroulas

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This chapter explores neural networks, topological data analysis, and topological deep learning techniques, alongside statistical Bayesian methods, for processing images, time series, and graphs to maximize the potential of artificial intelligence in the military domain. Throughout the chapter, we highlight practical applications spanning image, video, audio, and time-series recognition, fraud detection, and link prediction for graphical data, illustrating how topology-aware and uncertainty-aware models can enhance robustness, interpretability, and generalization.

2602.10265 2026-02-12 cs.CV

Colorimeter-Supervised Skin Tone Estimation from Dermatoscopic Images for Fairness Auditing

Marin Benčević, Krešimir Romić, Ivana Hartmann Tolić, Irena Galić

Comments Preprint submitted to Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine

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Neural-network-based diagnosis from dermatoscopic images is increasingly used for clinical decision support, yet studies report performance disparities across skin tones. Fairness auditing of these models is limited by the lack of reliable skin-tone annotations in public dermatoscopy datasets. We address this gap with neural networks that predict Fitzpatrick skin type via ordinal regression and the Individual Typology Angle (ITA) via color regression, using in-person Fitzpatrick labels and colorimeter measurements as targets. We further leverage extensive pretraining on synthetic and real dermatoscopic and clinical images. The Fitzpatrick model achieves agreement comparable to human crowdsourced annotations, and ITA predictions show high concordance with colorimeter-derived ITA, substantially outperforming pixel-averaging approaches. Applying these estimators to ISIC 2020 and MILK10k, we find that fewer than 1% of subjects belong to Fitzpatrick types V and VI. We release code and pretrained models as an open-source tool for rapid skin-tone annotation and bias auditing. This is, to our knowledge, the first dermatoscopic skin-tone estimation neural network validated against colorimeter measurements, and it supports growing evidence of clinically relevant performance gaps across skin-tone groups.

2602.10261 2026-02-12 cs.LG stat.AP stat.ML

Kernel-Based Learning of Chest X-ray Images for Predicting ICU Escalation among COVID-19 Patients

Qiyuan Shi, Jian Kang, Yi Li

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Kernel methods have been extensively utilized in machine learning for classification and prediction tasks due to their ability to capture complex non-linear data patterns. However, single kernel approaches are inherently limited, as they rely on a single type of kernel function (e.g., Gaussian kernel), which may be insufficient to fully represent the heterogeneity or multifaceted nature of real-world data. Multiple kernel learning (MKL) addresses these limitations by constructing composite kernels from simpler ones and integrating information from heterogeneous sources. Despite these advances, traditional MKL methods are primarily designed for continuous outcomes. We extend MKL to accommodate the outcome variable belonging to the exponential family, representing a broader variety of data types, and refer to our proposed method as generalized linear models with integrated multiple additive regression with kernels (GLIMARK). Empirically, we demonstrate that GLIMARK can effectively recover or approximate the true data-generating mechanism. We have applied it to a COVID-19 chest X-ray dataset, predicting binary outcomes of ICU escalation and extracting clinically meaningful features, underscoring the practical utility of this approach in real-world scenarios.

2602.10249 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Modeling Programming Skills with Source Code Embeddings for Context-aware Exercise Recommendation

Carlos Eduardo P. Silva, João Pedro M. Sena, Julio C. S. Reis, André G. Santos, Lucas N. Ferreira

Comments 10 pages, 4 figures, to be published in LAK26: 16th International Learning Analytics and Knowledge Conference (LAK 2026)

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英文摘要

In this paper, we propose a context-aware recommender system that models students' programming skills using embeddings of the source code they submit throughout a course. These embeddings predict students' skills across multiple programming topics, producing profiles that are matched to the skills required by unseen homework problems. To generate recommendations, we compute the cosine similarity between student profiles and problem skill vectors, ranking exercises according to their alignment with each student's current abilities. We evaluated our approach using real data from students and exercises in an introductory programming course at our university. First, we assessed the effectiveness of our source code embeddings for predicting skills, comparing them with token-based and graph-based alternatives. Results showed that Jina embeddings outperformed TF-IDF, CodeBERT-cpp, and GraphCodeBERT across most skills. Additionally, we evaluated the system's ability to recommend exercises aligned with weekly course content by analyzing student submissions collected over seven course offerings. Our approach consistently produced more suitable recommendations than baselines based on correctness or solution time, indicating that predicted programming skills provide a stronger signal for problem recommendation.

2602.10239 2026-02-12 cs.CV

XSPLAIN: XAI-enabling Splat-based Prototype Learning for Attribute-aware INterpretability

Dominik Galus, Julia Farganus, Tymoteusz Zapala, Mikołaj Czachorowski, Piotr Borycki, Przemysław Spurek, Piotr Syga

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英文摘要

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has rapidly become a standard for high-fidelity 3D reconstruction, yet its adoption in multiple critical domains is hindered by the lack of interpretability of the generation models as well as classification of the Splats. While explainability methods exist for other 3D representations, like point clouds, they typically rely on ambiguous saliency maps that fail to capture the volumetric coherence of Gaussian primitives. We introduce XSPLAIN, the first ante-hoc, prototype-based interpretability framework designed specifically for 3DGS classification. Our approach leverages a voxel-aggregated PointNet backbone and a novel, invertible orthogonal transformation that disentangles feature channels for interpretability while strictly preserving the original decision boundaries. Explanations are grounded in representative training examples, enabling intuitive ``this looks like that'' reasoning without any degradation in classification performance. A rigorous user study (N=51) demonstrates a decisive preference for our approach: participants selected XSPLAIN explanations 48.4\% of the time as the best, significantly outperforming baselines $(p<0.001)$, showing that XSPLAIN provides transparency and user trust. The source code for this work is available at: https://github.com/Solvro/ml-splat-xai

2602.10238 2026-02-12 cs.CL cs.LG

Learning to Evict from Key-Value Cache

Luca Moschella, Laura Manduchi, Ozan Sener

Comments 23 pages, 15 figures

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英文摘要

The growing size of Large Language Models (LLMs) makes efficient inference challenging, primarily due to the memory demands of the autoregressive Key-Value (KV) cache. Existing eviction or compression methods reduce cost but rely on heuristics, such as recency or past attention scores, which serve only as indirect proxies for a token's future utility and introduce computational overhead. We reframe KV cache eviction as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem: learning to rank tokens by their predicted usefulness for future decoding. To this end, we introduce KV Policy (KVP), a framework of lightweight per-head RL agents trained on pre-computed generation traces using only key and value vectors. Each agent learns a specialized eviction policy guided by future utility, which evaluates the quality of the ranking across all cache budgets, requiring no modifications to the underlying LLM or additional inference. Evaluated across two different model families on the long-context benchmark RULER and the multi-turn dialogue benchmark OASST2-4k, KVP significantly outperforms baselines. Furthermore, zero-shot tests on standard downstream tasks (e.g., LongBench, BOOLQ, ARC) indicate that KVP generalizes well beyond its training distribution and to longer context lengths. These results demonstrate that learning to predict future token utility is a powerful and scalable paradigm for adaptive KV cache management.

2602.10232 2026-02-12 cs.LG

Risk-Equalized Differentially Private Synthetic Data: Protecting Outliers by Controlling Record-Level Influence

Amir Asiaee, Chao Yan, Zachary B. Abrams, Bradley A. Malin

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英文摘要

When synthetic data is released, some individuals are harder to protect than others. A patient with a rare disease combination or a transaction with unusual characteristics stands out from the crowd. Differential privacy provides worst-case guarantees, but empirical attacks -- particularly membership inference -- succeed far more often against such outliers, especially under moderate privacy budgets and with auxiliary information. This paper introduces risk-equalized DP synthesis, a framework that prioritizes protection for high-risk records by reducing their influence on the learned generator. The mechanism operates in two stages: first, a small privacy budget estimates each record's "outlierness"; second, a DP learning procedure weights each record inversely to its risk score. Under Gaussian mechanisms, a record's privacy loss is proportional to its influence on the output -- so deliberately shrinking outliers' contributions yields tighter per-instance privacy bounds for precisely those records that need them most. We prove end-to-end DP guarantees via composition and derive closed-form per-record bounds for the synthesis stage (the scoring stage adds a uniform per-record term). Experiments on simulated data with controlled outlier injection show that risk-weighting substantially reduces membership inference success against high-outlierness records; ablations confirm that targeting -- not random downweighting -- drives the improvement. On real-world benchmarks (Breast Cancer, Adult, German Credit), gains are dataset-dependent, highlighting the interplay between scorer quality and synthesis pipeline.

2602.10231 2026-02-12 cs.LG cs.AI cs.CL

Blockwise Advantage Estimation for Multi-Objective RL with Verifiable Rewards

Kirill Pavlenko, Alexander Golubev, Simon Karasik, Boris Yangel

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Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) assigns a single scalar advantage to all tokens in a completion. For structured generations with explicit segments and objectives, this couples unrelated reward signals across segments, leading to objective interference and misattributed credit. We propose Blockwise Advantage Estimation, a family of GRPO-compatible methods that assigns each objective its own advantage and applies it only to the tokens in the corresponding text block, reducing reliance on hand-designed scalar rewards and scaling naturally to additional objectives. A key challenge is estimating advantages for later blocks whose rewards are conditioned on sampled prefixes; standard unbiased approaches require expensive nested rollouts from intermediate states. Concretely, we introduce an Outcome-Conditioned Baseline that approximates intermediate state values using only within-group statistics by stratifying samples according to a prefix-derived intermediate outcome. On math tasks with uncertainty estimation, our method mitigates reward interference, is competitive with a state-of-the-art reward-designed approach, and preserves test-time gains from confidence-weighted ensembling. More broadly, it provides a modular recipe for optimizing sequential objectives in structured generations without additional rollouts.

2602.10230 2026-02-12 cs.LG cs.SD eess.AS

Frame-Level Internal Tool Use for Temporal Grounding in Audio LMs

Joesph An, Phillip Keung, Jiaqi Wang, Orevaoghene Ahia, Noah A. Smith

Comments Under review. See https://github.com/inkitori/taudio/

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英文摘要

Large audio language models are increasingly used for complex audio understanding tasks, but they struggle with temporal tasks that require precise temporal grounding, such as word alignment and speaker diarization. The standard approach, where we generate timestamps as sequences of text tokens, is computationally expensive and prone to hallucination, especially when processing audio lengths outside the model's training distribution. In this work, we propose frame-level internal tool use, a method that trains audio LMs to use their own internal audio representations to perform temporal grounding directly. We introduce a lightweight prediction mechanism trained via two objectives: a binary frame classifier and a novel inhomogeneous Poisson process (IHP) loss that models temporal event intensity. Across word localization, speaker diarization, and event localization tasks, our approach outperforms token-based baselines. Most notably, it achieves a >50x inference speedup and demonstrates robust length generalization, maintaining high accuracy on out-of-distribution audio durations where standard token-based models collapse completely.

2602.10229 2026-02-12 cs.CL

Latent Thoughts Tuning: Bridging Context and Reasoning with Fused Information in Latent Tokens

Weihao Liu, Dehai Min, Lu Cheng

Comments version 1.0

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英文摘要

While explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) equips Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong reasoning capabilities, it requires models to verbalize every intermediate step in text tokens, constraining the model thoughts to the discrete vocabulary space. Recently, reasoning in continuous latent space has emerged as a promising alternative, enabling more robust inference and flexible computation beyond discrete token constraints. However, current latent paradigms often suffer from feature collapse and instability, stemming from distribution mismatches when recurrently using hidden states as the input embeddings, or alignment issues when relying on assistant models. To address this, we propose Latent Thoughts Tuning (LT-Tuning), a framework that redefines how latent thoughts are constructed and deployed. Instead of relying solely on raw hidden states, our method introduces a Context-Prediction-Fusion mechanism that jointly leveraging contextual hidden states and predictive semantic guidance from the vocabulary embedding space. Combined with a progressive three-stage curriculum learning pipeline, LT-Tuning also enables dynamically switching between latent and explicit thinking modes. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing latent reasoning baselines, effectively mitigating feature collapse and achieving robust reasoning accuracy.