We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference rule, unlocking flexible modeling of heterogeneous effects with multivariate, ordinal, or preference-driven outcomes. This unifies applications such as conditional probability of necessity and sufficiency, conditional Win Ratio, and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons. Despite the intrinsic non-identifiability of comparison-based estimands, CPTE provides interpretable targets and delivers new identifiability conditions for previous unidentifiable estimands. We present estimation strategies via matching, quantile, and distributional regression, and further design efficient influence-function estimators to correct plug-in bias and maximize policy value. Synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments demonstrate clear performance gains and practical impact.

Stochastic interpolants unify flows and diffusions, popular generative modeling frameworks. A primary hyperparameter in these methods is the interpolation schedule that determines how to bridge a standard Gaussian base measure to an arbitrary target measure. We prove how to convert a sample path of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with arbitrary diffusion coefficient under any schedule into the unique sample path under another arbitrary schedule and diffusion coefficient. We then extend the stochastic interpolant framework to admit a larger class of point mass schedules in which the Gaussian base measure collapses to a point mass measure. Under the assumption of Gaussian data, we identify lazy schedule families that make the drift identically zero and show that with deterministic sampling one gets a variance-preserving schedule commonly used in diffusion models, whereas with statistically optimal SDE sampling one gets our point mass schedule. Finally, to demonstrate the usefulness of our theoretical results on realistic highly non-Gaussian data, we apply our lazy schedule conversion to a state-of-the-art pretrained flow model and show that this allows for generating images in fewer steps without retraining the model.

The proportional hazards (PH) and accelerated failure time (AFT) models are the most widely used hazard structures for analysing time-to-event data. When the goal is to identify variables associated with event times, variable selection is typically performed within a single hazard structure, imposing strong assumptions on how covariates affect the hazard function. To allow simultaneous selection of relevant variables and the hazard structure itself, we develop a Bayesian variable selection approach within the general hazard (GH) model, which includes the PH, AFT, and other structures as special cases. We propose two types of g-priors for the regression coefficients that enable tractable computation and show that both lead to consistent model selection. We also introduce a hierarchical prior on the model space that accounts for multiplicity and penalises model complexity. To efficiently explore the GH model space, we extend the Add-Delete-Swap algorithm to jointly sample variable inclusion indicators and hazard structures. Simulation studies show accurate recovery of both the true hazard structure and active variables across different sample sizes and censoring levels. Two real-data applications are presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methodology and to compare it with existing variable selection methods.

While any symmetric and positive semidefinite mapping can be the non-centered covariance of a Gaussian random field, it is known that these conditions are no longer sufficient when the random field is valued in a two-point set. The question therefore arises of what are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a mapping $ρ: \X \times \X \to \R$ to be the non-centered covariance of a random field with values in a subset ${\cE}$ of $\R$. Such conditions are presented in the general case when ${\cE}$ is a closed subset of the real line, then examined for some specific cases. In particular, if ${\cE}=\R$ or $\Z$, it is shown that the conditions reduce to $ρ$ being symmetric and positive semidefinite. If ${\cE}$ is a closed interval or a two-point set, the necessary and sufficient conditions are more restrictive: the symmetry, positive semidefiniteness, upper and lower boundedness of $ρ$ are no longer enough to guarantee the existence of a random field valued in ${\cE}$ and having $ρ$ as its non-centered covariance. Similar characterizations are obtained for semivariograms and higher-order spatial moments, as well as for multivariate random fields.

Large language models are increasingly trained in continual or open-ended settings, where the total training horizon is not known in advance. Despite this, most existing pretraining recipes are not anytime: they rely on horizon-dependent learning rate schedules and extensive tuning under a fixed compute budget. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating the existence of anytime learning schedules for overparameterized linear regression, and we highlight the central role of weight averaging - also known as model merging - in achieving the minimax convergence rates of stochastic gradient descent. We show that these anytime schedules polynomially decay with time, with the decay rate determined by the source and capacity conditions of the problem. Empirically, we evaluate 150M and 300M parameter language models trained at 1-32x Chinchilla scale, comparing constant learning rates with weight averaging and $1/\sqrt{t}$ schedules with weight averaging against a well-tuned cosine schedule. Across the full training range, the anytime schedules achieve comparable final loss to cosine decay. Taken together, our results suggest that weight averaging combined with simple, horizon-free step sizes offers a practical and effective anytime alternative to cosine learning rate schedules for large language model pretraining.

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small batches at the proposed parameter values and assigns kernel weights based on the resulting batch-residual discrepancy, producing a self-normalized pseudo-posterior that is simple, parallelizable, and requires access only to the fitted regression coefficients rather than raw observations. We formalize the construction as an importance-sampling approximation to a population target that averages over simulator randomness, prove consistency as the number of parameter draws grows, and establish stability in estimating the surrogate regression from finite samples. We then characterize the asymptotic concentration as the batch size increases and the bandwidth shrinks, showing that the pseudo-posterior concentrates on an identified set determined by the chosen projection, thereby clarifying when the method yields point versus set identification. Experiments on a tractable nonlinear model and on a cosmological calibration task using the DREAMS simulation suite illustrate the computational advantages of regression-based projections and the identifiability limitations arising from low-information summaries.

Graph generative modelling has become an essential task due to the wide range of applications in chemistry, biology, social networks, and knowledge representation. In this work, we propose a novel framework for generating graphs by adapting the Generator Matching (arXiv:2410.20587) paradigm to graph-structured data. We leverage the graph Laplacian and its associated heat kernel to define a continous-time diffusion on each graph. The Laplacian serves as the infinitesimal generator of this diffusion, and its heat kernel provides a family of conditional perturbations of the initial graph. A neural network is trained to match this generator by minimising a Bregman divergence between the true generator and a learnable surrogate. Once trained, the surrogate generator is used to simulate a time-reversed diffusion process to sample new graph structures. Our framework unifies and generalises existing diffusion-based graph generative models, injecting domain-specific inductive bias via the Laplacian, while retaining the flexibility of neural approximators. Experimental studies demonstrate that our approach captures structural properties of real and synthetic graphs effectively.

Computational optimal transport (OT) offers a principled framework for generative modeling. Neural OT methods, which use neural networks to learn an OT map (or potential) from data in an amortized way, can be evaluated out of sample after training, but existing approaches are tailored to Euclidean geometry. Extending neural OT to high-dimensional Riemannian manifolds remains an open challenge. In this paper, we prove that any method for OT on manifolds that produces discrete approximations of transport maps necessarily suffers from the curse of dimensionality: achieving a fixed accuracy requires a number of parameters that grows exponentially with the manifold dimension. Motivated by this limitation, we introduce Riemannian Neural OT (RNOT) maps, which are continuous neural-network parameterizations of OT maps on manifolds that avoid discretization and incorporate geometric structure by construction. Under mild regularity assumptions, we prove that RNOT maps approximate Riemannian OT maps with sub-exponential complexity in the dimension. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate improved scalability and competitive performance relative to discretization-based baselines.

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias in all parameters under mild regularity conditions. The bias arises from the influence of outliers in component densities with unbounded or large support and increases with the degree of overlap among mixture components. I show that maximizing the classification-mixture likelihood function, equipped with a consistent classifier, yields parameter estimates that are less biased than those obtained by standard maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). I then derive the asymptotic distribution of the resulting estimator and provide conditions under which oracle efficiency is achieved. Monte Carlo simulations show that conventional mixture MLE exhibits pronounced finite-sample bias, which diminishes as the sample size or the statistical distance between component densities tends to infinity. The simulations further show that the proposed estimation strategy generally outperforms standard MLE in finite samples in terms of both bias and mean squared errors under relatively weak assumptions. An empirical application to latent group panel structures using health administrative data shows that the proposed approach reduces out-of-sample prediction error by approximately 17.6% relative to the best results obtained from standard MLE procedures.

The paper analyzes four classical signal-plus-noise models: the factor model, spiked sample covariance matrices, the sum of a Wigner matrix and a low-rank perturbation, and canonical correlation analysis with low-rank dependencies. The objective is to construct confidence intervals for the signal strength that are uniformly valid across all regimes - strong, weak, and critical signals. We demonstrate that traditional Gaussian approximations fail in the critical regime. Instead, we introduce a universal transitional distribution that enables valid inference across the entire spectrum of signal strengths. The approach is illustrated through applications in macroeconomics and finance.

Batch normalization (BN) is a ubiquitous operation in deep neural networks, primarily used to improve stability and regularization during training. BN centers and scales feature maps using sample means and variances, which are naturally suited for Stein's shrinkage estimation. Applying such shrinkage yields more accurate mean and variance estimates of the batch in the mean-squared-error sense. In this paper, we prove that the Stein shrinkage estimator of the mean and variance dominates over the sample mean and variance estimators, respectively, in the presence of adversarial attacks modeled using sub-Gaussian distributions. Furthermore, by construction, the James-Stein (JS) BN yields a smaller local Lipschitz constant compared to the vanilla BN, implying better regularity properties and potentially improved robustness. This facilitates and justifies the application of Stein shrinkage to estimate the mean and variance parameters in BN and the use of it in image classification and segmentation tasks with and without adversarial attacks. We present SOTA performance results using this Stein-corrected BN in a standard ResNet architecture applied to the task of image classification using CIFAR-10 data, 3D CNN on PPMI (neuroimaging) data, and image segmentation using HRNet on Cityscape data with and without adversarial attacks.

Network interference occurs when treatments assigned to some units affect the outcomes of others. Traditional approaches often assume that the observed network correctly specifies the interference structure. However, in practice, researchers frequently only have access to proxy measurements of the interference network due to limitations in data collection or potential mismatches between measured networks and actual interference pathways. In this paper, we introduce a framework for estimating causal effects when only proxy networks are available. Our approach leverages a structural causal model that accommodates diverse proxy types, including noisy measurements, multiple data sources, and multilayer networks, and defines causal effects as interventions on population-level treatments. The latent nature of the true interference network poses significant challenges. To overcome them, we develop a Bayesian inference framework. We propose a Block Gibbs sampler with Locally Informed Proposals to update the latent network, thereby efficiently exploring the high-dimensional posterior space composed of both discrete and continuous parameters. The latent network updates are driven by information from the proxy networks, treatments, and outcomes. We illustrate the performance of our method through numerical experiments, demonstrating its accuracy in recovering causal effects even when only proxies of the interference network are available.

We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established under $α$-mixing, while asymptotic normality follows from $β$-mixing and second-order conditions. A key aspect of our approach is its versatile functional formulation in terms of the conditional tail process. Simulations demonstrate its performance across dependence scenarios. We apply our method to extreme event modelling in the oil industry, revealing distinct tail behaviours under varying conditioning values.

The substantial computational demands of modern large-scale deep learning present significant challenges for efficient training and deployment. Recent research has revealed a widespread phenomenon wherein deep networks inherently learn low-rank structures in their weights and representations during training. This tutorial paper provides a comprehensive review of advances in identifying and exploiting these low-rank structures, bridging mathematical foundations with practical applications. We present two complementary theoretical perspectives on the emergence of low-rankness: viewing it through the optimization dynamics of gradient descent throughout training, and understanding it as a result of implicit regularization effects at convergence. Practically, these theoretical perspectives provide a foundation for understanding the success of techniques such as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) in fine-tuning, inspire new parameter-efficient low-rank training strategies, and explain the effectiveness of masked training approaches like dropout and masked self-supervised learning.

Trajectory data, including time series and longitudinal measurements, are increasingly common in health-related domains such as biomedical research and epidemiology. Real-world trajectory data frequently exhibit heterogeneity across subjects such as patients, sites, and subpopulations, yet many traditional methods are not designed to accommodate such heterogeneity in data analysis. To address this, we propose a unified framework, termed Functional Singular Value Decomposition (FSVD), for statistical learning with heterogeneous trajectories. We establish the theoretical foundations of FSVD and develop a corresponding estimation algorithm that accommodates noisy and irregular observations. We further adapt FSVD to a wide range of trajectory-learning tasks, including dimension reduction, factor modeling, regression, clustering, and data completion, while preserving its ability to account for heterogeneity, leverage inherent smoothness, and handle irregular sampling. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that FSVD-based methods consistently outperform existing approaches across these tasks. Finally, we apply FSVD to a COVID-19 case-count dataset and electronic health record datasets, showcasing its effective performance in global and subgroup pattern discovery and factor analysis.

ShinyItemAnalysis (SIA) is an R package and shiny application for an interactive presentation of psychometric methods and analysis of multi-item measurements in psychology, education, and social sciences in general. In this article, we present a new feature introduced in the recent version of the package, called "SIA modules", which allows researchers and practitioners to offer new analytical methods for broader use via add-on extensions. SIA modules are designed to integrate with and build upon the SIA interactive application, enabling them to leverage the existing infrastructure for tasks such as data uploading and processing. They can access and further use a range of outputs from various analyses, including models and datasets. Because SIA modules come in R packages (or extend the existing ones), they may come bundled with their datasets, use object-oriented systems, or even compiled code. We illustrate the concepts using sample modules from the newly introduced SIAmodules package and other packages. After providing a general overview of building Shiny applications, we describe how to develop the SIA add-on modules with the support of the new SIAtools package. Finally, we discuss possibilities of future development and emphasize the importance of freely available, interactive psychometric software for dissemination of methodological innovations.

Observations of groundwater pollutants, such as arsenic or Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), are riddled with left censoring. These measurements have impact on the health and lifestyle of the populace. Left censoring of these spatially correlated observations are usually addressed by applying Gaussian processes (GPs), which have theoretical advantages. However, this comes with a challenging computational complexity of $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, which is impractical for large datasets. Additionally, a sizable proportion of the data being left-censored creates further bottlenecks, since the likelihood computation now involves an intractable high-dimensional integral of the multivariate Gaussian density. In this article, we tackle these two problems simultaneously by approximating the GP with a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) approach that exploits an explicit link between a GP with Matérn correlation function and a GMRF using stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We introduce a GMRF-based measurement error into the model, which alleviates the likelihood computation for the censored data, drastically improving the speed of the model while maintaining admirable accuracy. Our approach demonstrates robustness and substantial computational scalability, compared to state-of-the-art methods for censored spatial responses across various simulation settings. Finally, the fit of this fully Bayesian model to the concentration of PFOS in groundwater available at 24,959 sites across California, where 46.62\% responses are censored, produces prediction surface and uncertainty quantification in real time, thereby substantiating the applicability and scalability of the proposed method. Code for implementation is made available via GitHub.

We develop a methodology for conducting inference on extreme quantiles of unobserved individual heterogeneity (e.g., heterogeneous coefficients, treatment effects) in panel data and meta-analysis settings. Inference is challenging in such settings: only noisy estimates of heterogeneity are available, and central limit approximations perform poorly in the tails. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which noisy estimates are informative about extreme quantiles, along with sufficient rate and moment conditions. Under these conditions, we establish an extreme value theorem and an intermediate order theorem for noisy estimates. These results yield simple optimization-free confidence intervals for extreme quantiles. Simulations show that our confidence intervals have favorable coverage and that the rate conditions matter for the validity of inference. We illustrate the method with an application to firm productivity differences between denser and less dense areas.

The time variation of the rank $k$ of words for six Indo-European languages is obtained using data from Google Books. For low ranks the distinct languages behave differently, maybe due to syntaxis rules, whereas for $k>50$ the law of large numbers predominates. The dynamics of $k$ is described stochastically through a master equation governing the time evolution of its probability density, which is approximated by a Fokker-Planck equation that is solved analytically. The difference between the data and the asymptotic solution is identified with the transient solution, and good agreement is obtained.

Kriging is a fundamental tool for spatial prediction, but its computational complexity of $O(N^3)$ becomes prohibitive for large datasets. While local kriging using $K$-nearest neighbors addresses this issue, the selection of $K$ typically relies on ad-hoc criteria that fail to account for spatial correlation structure. We propose a penalized kriging framework that incorporates LASSO-type penalties directly into the kriging equations to achieve automatic, data-driven neighbor selection. We further extend this to adaptive LASSO, using data-driven penalty weights that account for the spatial correlation structure. Our method determines which observations contribute non-zero weights through $\ell_1$ regularization, with the penalty parameter selected via a novel criterion based on effective sample size that balances prediction accuracy against information redundancy. Numerical experiments demonstrate that penalized kriging automatically adapts neighborhood structure to the underlying spatial correlation, selecting fewer neighbors for smoother processes and more for highly variable fields, while maintaining prediction accuracy comparable to global kriging at substantially reduced computational cost.

Integrating hard constraints into deep learning is essential for safety-critical systems. Yet existing constructive layers that project predictions onto constraint boundaries face a fundamental bottleneck: gradient saturation. By collapsing exterior points onto lower-dimensional surfaces, standard orthogonal projections induce rank-deficient Jacobians, which nullify gradients orthogonal to active constraints and hinder optimization. We introduce Soft-Radial Projection, a differentiable reparameterization layer that circumvents this issue through a radial mapping from Euclidean space into the interior of the feasible set. This construction guarantees strict feasibility while preserving a full-rank Jacobian almost everywhere, thereby preventing the optimization stalls typical of boundary-based methods. We theoretically prove that the architecture retains the universal approximation property and empirically show improved convergence behavior and solution quality over state-of-the-art optimization- and projection-based baselines.

Estimating treatment effects in networks is challenging, as each potential outcome depends on the treatments of all other nodes in the network. To overcome this difficulty, existing methods typically impose an exposure mapping that compresses the treatment assignments in the network into a low-dimensional summary. However, if this mapping is misspecified, standard estimators for direct and spillover effects can be severely biased. We propose a novel partial identification framework for causal inference on networks to assess the robustness of treatment effects under misspecifications of the exposure mapping. Specifically, we derive sharp upper and lower bounds on direct and spillover effects under such misspecifications. As such, our framework presents a novel application of causal sensitivity analysis to exposure mappings. We instantiate our framework for three canonical exposure settings widely used in practice: (i) weighted means of the neighborhood treatments, (ii) threshold-based exposure mappings, and (iii) truncated neighborhood interference in the presence of higher-order spillovers. Furthermore, we develop orthogonal estimators for these bounds and prove that the resulting bound estimates are valid, sharp, and efficient. Our experiments show the bounds remain informative and provide reliable conclusions under misspecification of exposure mappings.

Score-based diffusion models are a recently developed framework for posterior sampling in Bayesian inverse problems with a state-of-the-art performance for severely ill-posed problems by leveraging a powerful prior distribution learned from empirical data. Despite generating significant interest especially in the machine-learning community, a thorough study of realistic inverse problems in the presence of modelling error and utilization of physical measurement data is still outstanding. In this work, the framework of unconditional representation for the conditional score function (UCoS) is evaluated for linearized difference imaging in diffuse optical tomography (DOT). DOT uses boundary measurements of near-infrared light to estimate the spatial distribution of absorption and scattering parameters in biological tissues. The problem is highly ill-posed and thus sensitive to noise and modelling errors. We introduce a novel regularization approach that prevents overfitting of the score function by constructing a mixed score composed of a learned and a model-based component. Validation of this approach is done using both simulated and experimental measurement data. The experiments demonstrate that a data-driven prior distribution results in posterior samples with low variance, compared to classical model-based estimation, and centred around the ground truth, even in the context of a highly ill-posed problem and in the presence of modelling errors.

This paper studies the optimization of the KL functional on the Wasserstein space of probability measures, and develops a sampling framework based on Wasserstein gradient descent (WGD). We identify two important subclasses of the Wasserstein space for which the WGD scheme is guaranteed to converge, thereby providing new theoretical foundations for optimization-based sampling methods on measure spaces. For practical implementation, we construct a particle-based WGD algorithm in which the score function is estimated via score matching. Through a series of numerical experiments, we demonstrate that WGD can provide good approximation to a variety of complex target distributions, including those that pose substantial challenges for standard MCMC and parametric variational Bayes methods. These results suggest that WGD offers a promising and flexible alternative for scalable Bayesian inference in high-dimensional or multimodal settings.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often produce overconfident out-of-distribution predictions, motivating Bayesian uncertainty quantification. The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) achieves this by linearizing the DNN and applying Laplace inference to the resulting model. Importantly, the linear model is also used for prediction. We argue this linearization in the posterior may degrade fidelity to the true Laplace approximation. To alleviate this problem, without increasing significantly the computational cost, we propose the Quadratic Laplace Approximation (QLA). QLA approximates each second order factor in the approximate Laplace log-posterior using a rank-one factor obtained via efficient power iterations. QLA is expected to yield a posterior precision closer to that of the full Laplace without forming the full Hessian, which is typically intractable. For prediction, QLA also uses the linearized model. Empirically, QLA yields modest yet consistent uncertainty estimation improvements over LLA on five regression datasets.

Inferring the activities of transcription factors from high-throughput transcriptomic or open chromatin profiling, such as RNA-/CAGE-/ATAC-Seq, is a long-standing challenge in systems biology. Identification of highly active master regulators enables mechanistic interpretation of differential gene expression, chromatin state changes, or perturbation responses across conditions, cell types, and diseases. Here, we describe MARADONER, a statistical framework and its software implementation for motif activity response analysis (MARA), utilizing the sequence-level features obtained with pattern matching (motif scanning) of individual promoters and promoter- or gene-level activity or expression estimates. Compared to the classic MARA, MARADONER (MARA-done-right) employs an unbiased variance parameter estimation and a bias-adjusted likelihood estimation of fixed effects, thereby enhancing goodness-of-fit and the accuracy of activity estimation. Further, MARADONER is capable of accounting for heteroscedasticity of motif scores and activity estimates.

This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and non-linear dependencies among a large set of financial assets into a sparse graphical model satisfying a structural Markov property. Based on this representation, BPASGM performs a dependence-driven screening that removes positively or redundantly connected assets, isolating subsets that are conditionally independent or negatively correlated. This step is designed to enhance diversification and reduce estimation error in high-dimensional portfolio settings. Portfolio optimization is then conducted on the selected subset using standard mean-variance techniques. BPASGM does not aim to improve the theoretical mean-variance optimum under known population parameters, but rather to enhance realized performance in finite samples, where sample-based Markowitz portfolios are highly sensitive to estimation error. Monte Carlo simulations show that BPASGM-based portfolios achieve more stable risk-return profiles, lower realized volatility, and superior risk-adjusted performance compared to standard mean-variance portfolios. Empirical results for U.S. equities, global stock indices, and foreign exchange rates over 1990-2025 confirm these findings and demonstrate a substantial reduction in portfolio cardinality. Overall, BPASGM offers a statistically grounded and computationally efficient framework that integrates sparse graphical modeling with portfolio theory for dependence-aware asset selection.

Quantitative imaging methods, such as magnetic resonance fingerprinting (MRF), aim to extract interpretable pathology biomarkers by estimating biophysical tissue parameters from signal evolutions. However, the pattern-matching algorithms or neural networks used in such inverse problems often lack principled uncertainty quantification, which limits the trustworthiness and transparency, required for clinical acceptance. Here, we describe a physics-structured variational autoencoder (PS-VAE) designed for rapid extraction of voxelwise multi-parameter posterior distributions. Our approach integrates a differentiable spin physics simulator with self-supervised learning, and provides a full covariance that captures the inter-parameter correlations of the latent biophysical space. The method was validated in a multi-proton pool chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and semisolid magnetization transfer (MT) molecular MRF study, across in-vitro phantoms, tumor-bearing mice, healthy human volunteers, and a subject with glioblastoma. The resulting multi-parametric posteriors are in good agreement with those calculated using a brute-force Bayesian analysis, while providing an orders-of-magnitude acceleration in whole brain quantification. In addition, we demonstrate how monitoring the multi-parameter posterior dynamics across progressively acquired signals provides practical insights for protocol optimization and may facilitate real-time adaptive acquisition.

We propose an orthogonal approximate message passing (OAMP) algorithm for signal estimation in the rectangular spiked matrix model with general rotationally invariant (RI) noise. We establish a rigorous state evolution that exactly characterizes the high-dimensional dynamics of the algorithm. Building on this framework, we derive an optimal variant of OAMP that minimizes the predicted mean-squared error at each iteration. For the special case of i.i.d. Gaussian noise, the fixed point of the proposed OAMP algorithm coincides with that of the standard AMP algorithm. For general RI noise models, we conjecture that the optimal OAMP algorithm is statistically optimal within a broad class of iterative methods, and achieves Bayes-optimal performance in certain regimes.

In Calgary, November 2005, Chad Hedrick was the first to skate the 5,000 m below 6:10. His world record time 6:09.68 was then beaten a week later, in Salt Lake City, by Sven Kramer's 6:08.78. Further top races and world records followed over the ensuing seasons; up to and including the 2024-2025 season, a total of 126 races have been below 6:10, with Nils van der Poel's 2021 world record being 6:01.56. The appropriately hyped-up canonical question for the friends and followers and aficionados of speedskating has then been when (and by whom we for the first time would witness a below 6:00.00 race. In this note I first use extreme value statistics modelling to assess the state of affairs, as per the end of the 2024-2025 season, with predictions and probabilities for the 2025-2026 season. Under natural modelling assumptions the probability of seeing a new world record during this new season is shown to be about ten percent. We were indeed excited but in reality merely modestly surprised that a race better than van der Poel's record was clocked, by Timothy Loubineaud, in Salt Lake City, November 14, 2025. But Six-Minute Man Sander Eitrem's outstanding 5:58.52 in Inzell, on January 24, 2026, is truly beamonesquely shocking. I also use the modelling machinery to analyse the post-Eitrem situation, and suggest answers to the question of how fast the 5,000 m ever can be skated.

For randomized controlled trials to be conclusive, it is important to set the target sample size accurately at the design stage. Comparing two normal populations, the sample size calculation requires specification of the variance other than the treatment effect and misspecification can lead to underpowered studies. Blinded sample size re-estimation is an approach to minimize the risk of inconclusive studies. Existing methods proposed to use the total (one-sample) variance that is estimable from blinded data without knowledge of the treatment allocation. We demonstrate that, since the expectation of this estimator is greater than or equal to the true variance, the one-sample variance approach can be regarded as providing an upper bound of the variance in blind reviews. This worst-case evaluation can likely reduce a risk of underpowered studies. However, blinded reviews of small sample size may still lead to underpowered studies. We propose a refined method accounting for estimation error in blind reviews using an upper confidence limit of the variance. A similar idea had been proposed in the setting of external pilot studies. Furthermore, we developed a method to select an appropriate confidence level so that the re-estimated sample size attains the target power. Numerical studies showed that our method works well and outperforms existing methods. The proposed procedure is motivated and illustrated by recent randomized clinical trials.

Accurate estimation of tacrolimus exposure, quantified by the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), is essential for precision dosing after renal transplantation. Current practice relies on population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models based on nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) methods. However, these models depend on rigid, pre-specified assumptions and may struggle to capture complex, patient-specific dynamics, leading to model misspecification. In this study, we introduce a novel data-driven alternative based on Latent Ordinary Differential Equations (Latent ODEs) for tacrolimus AUC prediction. This deep learning approach learns individualized pharmacokinetic dynamics directly from sparse clinical data, enabling greater flexibility in modeling complex biological behavior. The model was evaluated through extensive simulations across multiple scenarios and benchmarked against two standard approaches: NLME-based estimation and the iterative two-stage Bayesian (it2B) method. We further performed a rigorous clinical validation using a development dataset (n = 178) and a completely independent external dataset (n = 75). In simulation, the Latent ODE model demonstrated superior robustness, maintaining high accuracy even when underlying biological mechanisms deviated from standard assumptions. Regarding experiments on clinical datasets, in internal validation, it achieved significantly higher precision with a mean RMSPE of 7.99% compared with 9.24% for it2B (p < 0.001). On the external cohort, it achieved an RMSPE of 10.82%, comparable to the two standard estimators (11.48% and 11.54%). These results establish the Latent ODE as a powerful and reliable tool for AUC prediction. Its flexible architecture provides a promising foundation for next-generation, multi-modal models in personalized medicine.

Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run $1-α$ coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual learning-rate tuning to work well, and may also require algorithm-specific analyses. Here, we develop a general regret-to-coverage theory for interval-valued OCP based on the $(1-α)$-pinball loss. Our first contribution is to identify \emph{linearized regret} as a key notion, showing that controlling it implies coverage bounds for any online algorithm. This relies on a black-box reduction that depends only on the Fenchel conjugate of an upper bound on the linearized regret. Building on this theory, we propose UP-OCP, a parameter-free method for OCP, via a reduction to a two-asset portfolio selection problem, leveraging universal portfolio algorithms. We show strong finite-time bounds on the miscoverage of UP-OCP, even for polynomially growing predictions. Extensive experiments support that UP-OCP delivers consistently better size/coverage trade-offs than prior online conformal baselines.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has recently emerged as a practical recipe for aligning large language models with verifiable objectives. However, under sparse terminal rewards, GRPO often stalls because rollouts within a group frequently receive identical rewards, causing relative advantages to collapse and updates to vanish. We propose self-hint aligned GRPO with privileged supervision (SAGE), an on-policy reinforcement learning framework that injects privileged hints during training to reshape the rollout distribution under the same terminal verifier reward. For each prompt $x$, the model samples a compact hint $h$ (e.g., a plan or decomposition) and then generates a solution $τ$ conditioned on $(x,h)$. Crucially, the task reward $R(x,τ)$ is unchanged; hints only increase within-group outcome diversity under finite sampling, preventing GRPO advantages from collapsing under sparse rewards. At test time, we set $h=\varnothing$ and deploy the no-hint policy without any privileged information. Moreover, sampling diverse self-hints serves as an adaptive curriculum that tracks the learner's bottlenecks more effectively than fixed hints from an initial policy or a stronger external model. Experiments over 6 benchmarks with 3 LLMs show that SAGE consistently outperforms GRPO, on average +2.0 on Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct, +1.2 on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct and +1.3 on Qwen3-4B-Instruct. The code is available at https://github.com/BaohaoLiao/SAGE.

We introduce functional adaptive shrinkage (FASH), an empirical Bayes method for joint analysis of observation units in which each unit estimates an effect function at several values of a continuous condition variable. The ideas in this paper are motivated by dynamic expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies, which aim to characterize how genetic effects on gene expression vary with time or another continuous condition. FASH integrates a broad family of Gaussian processes defined through linear differential operators into an empirical Bayes shrinkage framework, enabling adaptive smoothing and borrowing of information across units. This provides improved estimation of effect functions and principled hypothesis testing, allowing straightforward computation of significance measures such as local false discovery and false sign rates. To encourage conservative inferences, we propose a simple prior- adjustment method that has theoretical guarantees and can be more broadly used with other empirical Bayes methods. We illustrate the benefits of FASH by reanalyzing dynamic eQTL data on cardiomyocyte differentiation from induced pluripotent stem cells. FASH identified novel dynamic eQTLs, revealed diverse temporal effect patterns, and provided improved power compared with the original analysis. More broadly, FASH offers a flexible statistical framework for joint analysis of functional data, with applications extending beyond genomics. To facilitate use of FASH in dynamic eQTL studies and other settings, we provide an accompanying R package at https: //github.com/stephenslab/fashr.

Evaluating mathematical reasoning in LLMs is constrained by limited benchmark sizes and inherent model stochasticity, yielding high-variance accuracy estimates and unstable rankings across platforms. On difficult problems, an LLM may fail to produce a correct final answer, yet still provide reliable pairwise comparison signals indicating which of two candidate solutions is better. We leverage this observation to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework that combines standard labeled outcomes with pairwise comparison signals obtained by having models judge auxiliary reasoning chains. Treating these comparison signals as control variates, we develop a semiparametric estimator based on the efficient influence function (EIF) for the setting where auxiliary reasoning chains are observed. This yields a one-step estimator that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, guarantees strict variance reduction over naive sample averaging, and admits asymptotic normality for principled uncertainty quantification. Across simulations, our one-step estimator substantially improves ranking accuracy, with gains increasing as model output noise grows. Experiments on GPQA Diamond, AIME 2025, and GSM8K further demonstrate more precise performance estimation and more reliable model rankings, especially in small-sample regimes where conventional evaluation is pretty unstable.

It is increasingly common for data to possess intricate structure, necessitating new models and analytical tools. Graphs, a prominent type of structure, can encode the relationships between any two entities (nodes). However, graphs neither allow connections that are not dyadic nor permit relationships between sets of nodes. We thus turn to simplicial complexes for connecting more than two nodes as well as modeling relationships between simplices, such as edges and triangles. Our data then consist of signals lying on topological spaces, represented by simplicial complexes. Much recent work explores these topological signals, albeit primarily through deterministic formulations. We propose a probabilistic framework for random signals defined on simplicial complexes. Specifically, we generalize the classical notion of stationarity. By spectral dualities of Hodge and Dirac theory, we define stationary topological signals as the outputs of topological filters given white noise. This definition naturally extends desirable properties of stationarity that hold for both time-series and graph signals. Crucially, we properly define topological power spectral density (PSD) through a clear spectral characterization. We then discuss the advantages of topological stationarity due to spectral properties via the PSD. In addition, we empirically demonstrate the practicality of these benefits through multiple synthetic and real-world simulations.

Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as distinct phenomena, this paper introduces a unified statistical inference framework that bridges these contexts, treating the former as a special case of the latter. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we put forward the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) procedure for estimating the performative stability, and establish a rigorous inferential theory for admitting its asymptotic normality and confirming its asymptotic efficiency. Second, for the performative optimality, we introduce a novel two-step plug-in estimator that integrates the idea of Recalibrated Prediction Powered Inference (RePPI) with Importance Sampling, and further provide formal derivations for the Central Limit Theorems of both the underlying distributional parameters and the plug-in results. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that our estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and maintains robustness under mild distributional misspecification. This work provides a principled toolkit for reliable estimation and decision-making in dynamic, performative environments.

Machine unlearning, the ability to erase the effect of specific training samples without retraining from scratch, is critical for privacy, regulation, and efficiency. However, most progress in unlearning has been empirical, with little theoretical understanding of when and why unlearning works. We tackle this gap by framing unlearning through the lens of asymptotic linear stability to capture the interaction between optimization dynamics and data geometry. The key quantity in our analysis is data coherence which is the cross sample alignment of loss surface directions near the optimum. We decompose coherence along three axes: within the retain set, within the forget set, and between them, and prove tight stability thresholds that separate convergence from divergence. To further link data properties to forgettability, we study a two layer ReLU CNN under a signal plus noise model and show that stronger memorization makes forgetting easier: when the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is lower, cross sample alignment is weaker, reducing coherence and making unlearning easier; conversely, high SNR, highly aligned models resist unlearning. For empirical verification, we show that Hessian tests and CNN heatmaps align closely with the predicted boundary, mapping the stability frontier of gradient based unlearning as a function of batching, mixing, and data/model alignment. Our analysis is grounded in random matrix theory tools and provides the first principled account of the trade offs between memorization, coherence, and unlearning.

We develop a Bayesian methodology for numerical solution of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations with quantified uncertainty. The central idea is to treat discretized Navier--Stokes dynamics as a state-space model and to view numerical solution as posterior computation: priors encode physical structure and modeling error, and the solver outputs a distribution over states and quantities of interest rather than a single trajectory. In two dimensions, stochastic representations (Feynman--Kac and stochastic characteristics for linear advection--diffusion with prescribed drift) motivate Monte Carlo solvers and provide intuition for uncertainty propagation. In three dimensions, we formulate stochastic Navier--Stokes models and describe particle-based and ensemble-based Bayesian workflows for uncertainty propagation in spectral discretizations. A key computational advantage is that parameter learning can be performed stably via particle learning: marginalization and resample--propagate (one-step smoothing) constructions avoid the weight-collapse that plagues naive sequential importance sampling on static parameters. When partial observations are available, the same machinery supports sequential observational updating as an additional capability. We also discuss non-Gaussian (heavy-tailed) error models based on normal variance-mean mixtures, which yield conditionally Gaussian updates via latent scale augmentation.

Clustered data, which arise when observations are nested within groups, are incredibly common in clinical, education, and social science research. Traditionally, a linear mixed model, which includes random effects to account for within-group correlation, would be used to model the observed data and make new predictions on unseen data. Some work has been done to extend the mixed model approach beyond linear regression into more complex and non-parametric models, such as decision trees and random forests. However, existing methods are limited to using the global fixed effects for prediction on data from out-of-sample groups, effectively assuming that all clusters share a common outcome model. We propose a lightweight sum-of-trees model in which we learn a decision tree for each sample group. We combine the predictions from these trees using weights so that out-of-sample group predictions are more closely aligned with the most similar groups in the training data. This strategy also allows for inference on the similarity across groups in the outcome prediction model, as the unique tree structures and variable importances for each group can be directly compared. We show our model outperforms traditional decision trees and random forests in a variety of simulation settings. Finally, we showcase our method on real-world data from the sarcoma cohort of The Cancer Genome Atlas, where patient samples are grouped by sarcoma subtype.

Masked diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework for text and multimodal generation. However, their sampling procedure updates multiple tokens simultaneously and treats generated tokens as immutable, which may lead to error accumulation when early mistakes cannot be revised. In this work, we revisit existing self-correction methods and identify limitations stemming from additional training requirements or reliance on misaligned likelihood estimates. We propose a training-free self-correction framework that exploits the inductive biases of pre-trained masked diffusion models. Without modifying model parameters or introducing auxiliary evaluators, our method significantly improves generation quality on text-to-image generation and multimodal understanding tasks with reduced sampling steps. Moreover, the proposed framework generalizes across different masked diffusion architectures, highlighting its robustness and practical applicability. Code can be found in https://github.com/huge123/FreeCorrection.

Many ideas in modern control and reinforcement learning treat decision-making as inference: start from a baseline distribution and update it when a signal arrives. We ask when this can be made literal rather than metaphorical. We study the special case where a KL-regularized soft update is exactly a Bayesian posterior inside a single fixed probabilistic model, so the update variable is a genuine channel through which information is transmitted. In this regime, behavioral change is driven only by evidence carried by that channel: the update must be explainable as an evidence reweighing of the baseline. This yields a sharp identification result: posterior updates determine the relative, context-dependent incentive signal that shifts behavior, but they do not uniquely determine absolute rewards, which remain ambiguous up to context-specific baselines. Requiring one reusable continuation value across different update directions adds a further coherence constraint linking the reward descriptions associated with different conditioning orders.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation $σ^2 \mapsto κ(σ^2)$, explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: \textit{anisotropy} across eigenmodes, \textit{inhomogeneity} across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Urban land use and building intensity are often planned without a direct, auditable link to network accessibility, limiting ex-ante policy evaluation. This study asks whether multi-radius street centralities can be elevated from diagnosis to design lever to allocate land use and floor area in a transparent, optimization-ready workflow. We introduce a three-stage pipeline that connects configuration to program and intensity. First, multi-radius accessibility is computed on the street network and translated to blocks to provide scale-legible measures of reach. Second, these measures structure nested service basins that guide a rule-based placement of land uses with explicit priorities and minimum parcel footprints, ensuring reproducibility. Third, within each use, floor-area ratio (FAR) is assigned by an accessibility-weighted linear model that satisfies global construction totals while anchoring the average FAR, thereby tilting height toward better-connected blocks without pathological extremes. The framework supports multi-objective policy search via sampling and Pareto screening. Applied to a real urban district, the workflow reproduces corridor-biased commercial siting and industrial belts while concentrating intensity on highly connected blocks. Policy sampling via multi-objective screening yields Pareto-efficient plans that reconcile accessibility gains with deviations from target land-share and construction-share structures. The contribution is twofold: methodologically, it translates familiar space-syntax measures into cluster-aware, rule-governed land-use and FAR assignment with explicit guarantees (scale-legible radii, parcel minima, and an average-FAR anchor). Practically, it offers planners a transparent instrument for counterfactual testing and negotiated trade-offs at neighborhood/district/city scales.

This paper introduces a new two-parameter distribution, referred to as the Shiha distribution, which provides a flexible model for skewed lifetime data with either heavy or light tails. The proposed distribution is applicable to various fields, including reliability engineering, environmental studies, and related areas. We derive its main statistical properties, including the moment generating function, moments, hazard rate function, quantile function, and entropy. The stress--strength reliability parameter is also derived in closed form. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate its performance. Applications to several real data sets demonstrate that the Shiha distribution consistently provides a superior fit compared with established competing models, confirming its practical effectiveness for lifetime data analysis.

Teaching data science presents unique challenges and opportunities that cannot be fully addressed by simply borrowing pedagogical strategies from its parent disciplines of statistics and computer science. Here, we present ten simple rules for teaching data science, developed and refined by leading educators in the community and successfully applied in our own data science classrooms.

We consider the functional regression model with multivariate response and functional predictors. Compared to fitting each individual response variable separately, taking advantage of the correlation between the response variables can improve the estimation and prediction accuracy. Using information in both functional predictors and multivariate response, we identify the optimal decomposition of the coefficient functions for prediction in population level. Then we propose methods to estimate this decomposition and fit the regression model for the situations of a small and a large number $p$ of functional predictors separately. For a large $p$, we propose a simultaneous smooth-sparse penalty which can both make curve selection and improve estimation and prediction accuracy. We provide the asymptotic results when both the sample size and the number of functional predictors go to infinity. Our method can be applied to models with thousands of functional predictors and has been implemented in the R package FRegSigCom.

Detecting spatial patterns is fundamental to scientific discovery, yet current methods lack statistical consensus and face computational barriers when applied to large-scale spatial omics datasets. We unify major approaches through a single quadratic form and derive general consistency conditions. We reveal that several widely used methods, including Moran's I, are inconsistent, and propose scalable corrections. The resulting test enables robust pattern detection across millions of spatial locations and single-cell lineage-tracing datasets.

Accurate and high-resolution estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial in estimating evapotranspiration, a measure of plant water use and a central quantity in agricultural applications. In this work, we develop a novel statistical method for downscaling LST data obtained from NASA's ECOSTRESS mission, using high-resolution data from the Landsat 8 mission as a proxy for modeling agricultural field structure. Using the Landsat data, we identify the boundaries of agricultural fields through edge detection techniques, allowing us to capture the inherent block structure present in the spatial domain. We propose a block-diagonal Gaussian process (BDGP) model that captures the spatial structure of the agricultural fields, leverages independence of LST across fields for computational tractability, and accounts for the change of support present in ECOSTRESS observations. We use the resulting BDGP model to perform Gaussian process regression and obtain high-resolution estimates of LST from ECOSTRESS data, along with uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method in producing reliable high-resolution LST estimates, with potential applications in agriculture, urban planning, and climate studies.

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design for treatment evaluation, where a randomized controlled trial is augmented with external control data from a previous trial or a real world data source. The hybrid control design has the potential to improve efficiency but also carries the risk of introducing bias. The potential bias in a hybrid control study can be mitigated by adjusting for baseline covariates that are related to the control outcome. Existing methods that serve this purpose commonly assume that the internal and external control outcomes are exchangeable upon conditioning on a set of measured covariates. Possible violations of the exchangeability assumption can be addressed using a g-computation method with variable selection under a correctly specified outcome regression model. In this article, we note that a particular version of this g-computation method is protected against misspecification of the outcome regression model. This observation leads to a model-robust g-computation method that is remarkably simple and easy to implement, consistent and asymptotically normal under minimal assumptions, and able to improve efficiency by exploiting similarities between the internal and external control groups. The method is evaluated in a simulation study and illustrated using real data from HIV treatment trials.

We propose a fundamental metric for measuring the distance between two distributions. This metric, referred to as the decision-focused (DF) divergence, is tailored to stochastic linear optimization problems in which the objective coefficients are random and may follow two distinct distributions. Traditional metrics such as KL divergence and Wasserstein distance are not well-suited for quantifying the resulting cost discrepancy, because changes in the coefficient distribution do not necessarily change the optimizer of the underlying linear program. Instead, the impact on the objective value depends on how the two distributions are coupled (aligned). Motivated by optimal transport, we introduce decision-focused distances under several settings, including the optimistic DF distance, the robust DF distance, and their entropy-regularized variants. We establish connections between the proposed DF distance and classical distributional metrics. For the calculation of the DF distance, we develop efficient computational methods. We further derive sample complexity guarantees for estimating these distances and show that the DF distance estimation avoids the curse of dimensionality that arises in Wasserstein distance estimation. The proposed DF distance provides a foundation for a broad range of applications. As an illustrative example, we study the interpolation between two distributions. Numerical studies, including a toy newsvendor problem and a real-world medical testing dataset, demonstrate the practical value of the proposed DF distance.

Spatial interference and spatial confounding are two major issues inhibiting precise causal estimates when dealing with observational spatial data. Moreover, the definition and interpretation of spatial confounding remain arguable in the literature. In this paper, our goal is to provide clarity in a novel way on misconception and issues around spatial confounding from Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) perspective and to disentangle both direct, indirect spatial confounding and spatial interference based on bias induced on causal estimates. Also, existing analyses of spatial confounding bias typically rely on Normality assumptions for treatments and confounders, assumptions that are often violated in practice. Relaxing these assumptions, we derive analytical expressions for spatial confounding bias under more general distributional settings using Poisson as example . We showed that the choice of spatial weights, the distribution of the treatment, and the magnitude of interference critically determine the extent of bias due to spatial interference. We further demonstrate that direct and indirect spatial confounding can be disentangled, with both the weight matrix and the nature of exposure playing central roles in determining the magnitude of indirect bias. Theoretical results are supported by simulation studies and an application to real-world spatial data. In future, parametric frameworks for concomitantly adjusting for spatial interference, direct and indirect spatial confounding for both direct and mediated effects estimation will be developed.

This paper presents a focused review of Markov random fields (MRFs)--commonly used probabilistic representations of spatial dependence in discrete spatial domains--for categorical data, with an emphasis on models for binary-valued observations or latent variables. We examine core structural properties of these models, including clique factorization, conditional independence, and the role of neighborhood structures. We also discuss the phenomenon of phase transition and its implications for statistical model specification and inference. A central contribution of this review is the use of response functions, a unifying tool we introduce for prior analysis that provides insight into how different formulations of MRFs influence implied marginal and joint distributions. We illustrate these concepts through a case study of direct-data MRF models with covariates, highlighting how different formulations encode dependence. While our focus is on binary fields, the principles outlined here extend naturally to more complex categorical MRFs and we draw connections to these higher-dimensional modeling scenarios. This review provides both theoretical grounding and practical tools for interpreting and extending MRF-based models.

Multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) are central to global drug development, enabling evaluation of treatment effects across diverse populations. A key challenge is valid and efficient inference for a region-specific estimand when the target region is small and differs from auxiliary regions in baseline covariates or unmeasured factors. We adopt an estimand-based framework and focus on the region-specific average treatment effect (RSATE) in a prespecified target region, which is directly relevant to local regulatory decision-making. Cross-region differences can induce covariate shift, covariate mismatch, and outcome drift, potentially biasing information borrowing and invalidating RSATE inference. To address these issues, we develop a unified causal inference framework with selective information borrowing. First, we introduce an inverse-variance weighting estimator that combines a "small-sample, rich-covariate" target-only estimator with a "large-sample, limited-covariate" full-borrowing doubly robust estimator, maximizing efficiency under no outcome drift. Second, to accommodate outcome drift, we apply conformal prediction to assess patient-level comparability and adaptively select auxiliary-region patients for borrowing. Third, to ensure rigorous finite-sample inference, we employ a conditional randomization test with exact, model-free, selection-aware type I error control. Simulation studies show the proposed estimator improves efficiency, yielding 10-50% reductions in mean squared error and higher power relative to no-borrowing and full-borrowing approaches, while maintaining valid inference across diverse scenarios. An application to the POWER trial further demonstrates improved precision for RSATE estimation.

Often, constraints arise in deployment settings where even lightweight parameter updates e.g. parameter-efficient fine-tuning could induce model shift or tuning instability. We study test-time adaptation of foundation models for few-shot classification under a completely frozen-model regime, where additionally, no upstream data are accessible. We propose arguably the first training-free inference method that adapts predictions to the new task by performing a change of measure over the latent embedding distribution induced by the encoder. Using task-similarity scores derived from a small labeled support set, exponential tilting reweights latent distributions in a KL-optimal manner without modifying model parameters. Empirically, the method consistently competes with parameter-update-based methods across multiple benchmarks and shot regimes, while operating under strictly and universally stronger constraints. These results demonstrate the viability of inference-level distributional correction for test-time adaptation even with a fully-frozen model pipeline.

Adversarial training attains strong empirical robustness to specific adversarial attacks by training on concrete adversarial perturbations, but it produces neural networks that are not amenable to strong robustness certificates through neural network verification. On the other hand, earlier certified training schemes directly train on bounds from network relaxations to obtain models that are certifiably robust, but display sub-par standard performance. Recent work has shown that state-of-the-art trade-offs between certified robustness and standard performance can be obtained through a family of losses combining adversarial outputs and neural network bounds. Nevertheless, differently from empirical robustness, verifiability still comes at a significant cost in standard performance. In this work, we propose to leverage empirically-robust teachers to improve the performance of certifiably-robust models through knowledge distillation. Using a versatile feature-space distillation objective, we show that distillation from adversarially-trained teachers consistently improves on the state-of-the-art in certified training for ReLU networks across a series of robust computer vision benchmarks.

High dimensional representation drift is commonly quantified using Euclidean or cosine distances, which presuppose fixed coordinates when comparing representations across time, training or preprocessing stages. While effective in many settings, these measures entangle intrinsic changes in the data with variations induced by arbitrary parametrizations. We introduce a projective geometric view of representation drift grounded in the Fubini Study metric, which identifies representations that differ only by gauge transformations such as global rescalings or sign flips. Applying this framework to empirical high dimensional datasets, we explicitly construct representation trajectories and track their evolution through cumulative geometric drift. Comparing Euclidean, cosine and Fubini Study distances along these trajectories reveals that conventional metrics systematically overestimate change whenever representations carry genuine projective ambiguity. By contrast, the Fubini Study metric isolates intrinsic evolution by remaining invariant under gauge-induced fluctuations. We further show that the difference between cosine and Fubini Study drift defines a computable, monotone quantity that directly captures representation churn attributable to gauge freedom. This separation provides a diagnostic for distinguishing meaningful structural evolution from parametrization artifacts, without introducing model-specific assumptions. Overall, we establish a geometric criterion for assessing representation stability in high-dimensional systems and clarify the limits of angular distances. Embedding representation dynamics in projective space connects data analysis with established geometric programs and yields observables that are directly testable in empirical workflows.

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to fleet-level probabilistic models and instead rely on site-level forecasts produced by heterogeneous third-party providers. Constructing coherent and calibrated fleet-level probabilistic forecasts from such inputs remains challenging due to complex cross-site dependencies and aggregation-induced miscalibration. This paper proposes a calibrated probabilistic aggregation framework that directly converts site-level probabilistic forecasts into reliable fleet-level forecasts in settings where system-level models cannot be trained or maintained. The framework integrates copula-based dependence modeling to capture cross-site correlations with Context-Aware Conformal Prediction (CACP) to correct miscalibration at the aggregated level. This combination enables dependence-aware aggregation while providing valid coverage and maintaining sharp prediction intervals. Experiments on large-scale solar generation datasets from MISO, ERCOT, and SPP demonstrate that the proposed Copula+CACP approach consistently achieves near-nominal coverage with significantly sharper intervals than uncalibrated aggregation baselines.

Longitudinal brain imaging data facilitate the monitoring of structural and functional alterations in individual brains across time, offering essential understanding of dynamic neurobiological mechanisms. Such data improve sensitivity for detecting early biomarkers of disease progression and enhance the evaluation of intervention effects. While recent matrix-response regression models can relate static brain networks to external predictors, there remain few statistical methods for longitudinal brain networks, especially those derived from high-dimensional imaging data. We introduce a matrix-response generalized linear mixed model that accommodates longitudinal brain networks and identifies edges whose connectivity is influenced by external predictors. An efficient Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. Extensive simulations demonstrate effective identification of covariate-related network components and accurate parameter estimation. We further demonstrate the usage of the proposed method through applications to diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and functional MRI (fMRI) datasets.

Despite the popular of multimodal statistical models, there lacks rigorous statistical inference tools for inferring the significance of a single modality within a multimodal model, especially in high-dimensional models. For high-dimensional multimodal generalized linear models, we propose a novel entropy-based metric, called the expected relative entropy, to quantify the information gain of one modality in addition to all other modalities in the model. We propose a deviance-based statistic to estimate the expected relative entropy, prove that it is consistent and its asymptotic distribution can be approximated by a non-central chi-squared distribution. That enables the calculation of confidence intervals and p-values to assess the significance of the expected relative entropy for a given modality. We numerically evaluate the empirical performance of our proposed inference tool by simulations and apply it to a multimodal neuroimaging dataset to demonstrate its good performance on various high-dimensional multimodal generalized linear models.

The prevalence and low cost of LLMs have led to a rise of synthetic content. From review sites to court documents, "natural" content has been contaminated by data points that appear similar to natural data, but are in fact LLM-generated. In this work we revisit fundamental learning theory questions in this, now ubiquitous, setting. We model this scenario as a sequence of learning tasks where the input is a mix of natural and synthetic data, and the learning algorithms are oblivious to the origin of any individual example. We study the possibilities and limitations of ERM in this setting. For the problem of estimating the mean of an arbitrary $d$-dimensional distribution, we find that while ERM converges to the true mean, it is outperformed by an algorithm that assigns non-uniform weights to examples from different generations of data. For the PAC learning setting, the disparity is even more stark. We find that ERM does not always converge to the true concept, echoing the model collapse literature. However, we show there are algorithms capable of learning the correct hypothesis for arbitrary VC classes and arbitrary amounts of contamination.

As a core policy tool for China in addressing climate risks, green finance plays a strategically important role in shaping carbon mitigation outcomes. This study investigates the nonlinear and interaction effects of green finance on carbon emission intensity (CEI) using Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2022. The Climate Physical Risk Index (CPRI) is incorporated into the analytical framework to assess its potential role in shaping carbon outcomes. We employ Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to capture complex nonlinear relationships and interaction pathways, and use SHapley Additive exPlanations values to enhance model interpretability. Results show that the Green Finance Index (GFI) has a statistically significant inverted U-shaped effect on CEI, with notable regional heterogeneity. Contrary to expectations, CPRI does not show a significant impact on carbon emissions. Further analysis reveals that in high energy consumption scenarios, stronger green finance development contributes to lower CEI. These findings highlight the potential of green finance as an effective instrument for carbon intensity reduction, especially in energy-intensive contexts, and underscore the importance of accounting for nonlinear effects and regional disparities when designing and implementing green financial policies.

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event process. These interventions induce a family of estimands indexed by a scalar parameter α, representing effects of modifying event rates while preserving the temporal and covariate-dependent structure of the observed data generating mechanism. To enhance interpretability, we introduce calibrated interventions, where α is chosen to achieve a pre-specified goal, such as a desired level of cumulative risk of the intermediate event, and define corresponding composite target parameters capturing the downstream effects on the outcome process. This yields clinically meaningful contrasts while avoiding unrealistic deterministic intervention regimes. Under a nonparametric model, we derive efficient influence curves for α-indexed, calibrated, and composite target parameters and establish their double robustness properties. We further sketch a targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) strategy that accommodates flexible, machine learning based nuisance estimation. The proposed framework applies broadly to (causal) questions involving time-to-event treatments or mediators and is illustrated through different examples event-history settings. A simulation study demonstrates finite-sample inferential properties, and highlights the implications of practical positivity violations when interventions extend beyond observed data support.

Directional replicability addresses the question of whether an effect studied across $n$ independent studies is present with the same direction in at least $r$ of them, for $r \geq 2$. When the expected direction of the effect is not specified in advance, the state of the art recommends assessing replicability separately by combining one-sided $p$-values for both directions (left and right), and then doubling the smaller of the two resulting combined $p$-values to account for multiple testing. In this work, we show that this multiplicative correction is not always necessary, and give conditions under which it can be safely omitted.

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) provides a framework for adversarial robustness, yet existing methods based on global Lipschitz continuity or strong duality often yield loose upper bounds or require prohibitive computation. We address these limitations with a primal approach and adopt a notion of exact Lipschitz certificates to tighten this upper bound of WDRO. For ReLU networks, we leverage the piecewise-affine structure on activation cells to obtain an exact tractable characterization of the corresponding WDRO problem. We further extend our analysis to modern architectures with smooth activations (e.g., GELU, SiLU), such as Transformers. Additionally, we propose novel Wasserstein Distributional Attacks (WDA, WDA++) that construct candidates for the worst-case distribution. Compared to existing attacks that are restricted to point-wise perturbations, our methods offer greater flexibility in the number and location of attack points. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves competitive robust accuracy against state-of-the-art baselines while offering tighter certificates than existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/OLab-Repo/WDA.

Diffusion models (DMs) excel in image generation but suffer from slow inference and training-inference discrepancies. Although gradient-based solvers for DMs accelerate denoising inference, they often lack theoretical foundations in information transmission efficiency. In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic perspective on the inference processes of DMs, revealing that successful denoising fundamentally reduces conditional entropy in reverse transitions. This principle leads to our key insights into the inference processes: (1) data prediction parameterization outperforms its noise counterpart, and (2) optimizing conditional variance offers a reference-free way to minimize both transition and reconstruction errors. Based on these insights, we propose an entropy-aware variance optimized method for the generative process of DMs, called EVODiff, which systematically reduces uncertainty by optimizing conditional entropy during denoising. Extensive experiments on DMs validate our insights and demonstrate that our method significantly and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) gradient-based solvers. For example, compared to the DPM-Solver++, EVODiff reduces the reconstruction error by up to 45.5\% (FID improves from 5.10 to 2.78) at 10 function evaluations (NFE) on CIFAR-10, cuts the NFE cost by 25\% (from 20 to 15 NFE) for high-quality samples on ImageNet-256, and improves text-to-image generation while reducing artifacts. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguiLi/EVODiff.

The Binary Emax model is widely employed in dose-response analysis during Phase II clinical studies to identify the optimal dose for subsequence confirmatory trials. The parameter estimation and inference heavily rely on the asymptotic properties of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators; however, this approach may be questionable under small or moderate sample sizes and is not robust to violation of model assumptions. To provide a reliable solution, this paper examines three bias-reduction methods: the Cox-Snell bias correction, Firth-score modification, and a maximum penalized likelihood estimator (MPLE) using Jeffreys prior. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we evaluate the performance of these methods in reducing bias and controlling variance, especially when model assumptions are violated. The results demonstrate that both Firth and MPLE methods provide robust estimates, with MPLE outperforming in terms of stability and lower variance. We further illustrate the practical application of these methods using data from the TURANDOT study, a Phase II clinical trial. Our findings suggest that MPLE with Jeffreys prior offers an effective and reliable alternative to the Firth method, particularly for dose-response relationships that deviate from monotonicity, making it valuable for robust parameter estimation in dose-ranging studies.

Many core concepts in political science are latent and therefore can only be measured with error. Measurement error in a predictor attenuates slope coefficient estimates in regression, biasing them toward zero. We show that widely used strategies for correcting attenuation bias -- including instrumental variables and the method of composition -- are themselves biased when applied to latent regressors, sometimes even more than simple regression ignoring the measurement error altogether. We derive a correlation-based correction using split-sample measurement strategies. Rather than assuming a particular estimation strategy for the latent trait, our approach is modular and can be easily deployed with a wide variety of latent trait measurement strategies, including additive score, factor, or machine learning models, requiring no joint estimation while yielding consistent slopes under standard assumptions. Simulations and applications show stronger relationships after our correction, sometimes by as much as 50%. Open-source software implements the procedure. Results underscore that latent predictors demand tailored error correction; otherwise, conventional practice can exacerbate bias.

Designs for Order-of-Addition (OofA) experiments have received growing attention due to their impact on responses based on the sequence of component addition. In certain cases, these experiments involve heterogeneous groups of units, which necessitates the use of blocking to manage variation effects. Despite this, the exploration of block OofA designs remains limited in the literature. As experiments become increasingly complex, addressing this gap is essential to ensure that the designs accurately reflect the effects of the addition sequence and effectively handle the associated variability. Motivated by this, this paper seeks to address the gap by expanding the indicator function framework for block OofA designs. We propose the use of the word length pattern as a criterion for selecting robust block OofA designs. To improve search efficiency and reduce computational demands, we develop algorithms that employ orthogonal Latin squares for design construction and selection, minimizing the need for exhaustive searches. Our analysis, supported by correlation plots, reveals that the algorithms effectively manage confounding and aliasing between effects. Additionally, simulation studies indicate that designs based on our proposed criterion and algorithms achieve power and type I error rates comparable to those of full block OofA designs. This approach offers a practical and efficient method for constructing block OofA designs and may provide valuable insights for future research and applications.

New and efficient methods based on noise addition to protect the confidentiality in population statistics have been developed, tested and applied in census production by various members of the European Statistical System over the past years. Basic demographic statistics - such as population stocks, live births and deaths by age, sex and region - may be protected in a similar way, but also form the raw input to calculate various demographic indicators. This paper analyses the impact on the accuracy of some selected indicators, namely fertility and mortality rates and life expectancies, under the assumption that the raw input counts are protected with a generic noise method with fixed variance parameter, by comparing the size of noise uncertainties with intrinsic statistical uncertainties using a Poisson model. As a by-product, we derive and validate numerically a closed analytical expression for the variance of life expectancies in a certain class of calculation models as a function of the variance of input mortality data. This expression also allows to calculate analytically the statistical uncertainty of life expectancies using the mentioned Poisson model for the input death counts.

We consider the Schrödinger bridge problem which, given ensemble measurements of the initial and final configurations of a stochastic dynamical system and some prior knowledge on the dynamics, aims to reconstruct the "most likely" evolution of the system compatible with the data. Most existing literature assume Brownian reference dynamics, and are implicitly limited to modelling systems driven by the gradient of a potential energy. We depart from this regime and consider reference processes described by a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with generic drift matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$. When $\mathbf{A}$ is asymmetric, this corresponds to a non-equilibrium system in which non-gradient forces are at play: this is important for applications to biological systems, which naturally exist out-of-equilibrium. In the case of Gaussian marginals, we derive explicit expressions that characterise exactly the solution of both the static and dynamic Schrödinger bridge. For general marginals, we propose mvOU-OTFM, a simulation-free algorithm based on flow and score matching for learning an approximation to the Schrödinger bridge. In application to a range of problems based on synthetic and real single cell data, we demonstrate that mvOU-OTFM achieves higher accuracy compared to competing methods, whilst being significantly faster to train.

The large variety of functions encountered in nonparametric statistics, calls for methods that are flexible enough to achieve optimal or near-optimal performance over a wide variety of functional classes, such as Besov balls, as well as over a large array of loss functions. In this work, we show that a class of heavy-tailed prior distributions on basis function coefficients introduced in \cite{AC} and called Oversmoothed heavy-Tailed (OT) priors, leads to Bayesian posterior distributions that satisfy these requirements; the case of horseshoe distributions is also investigated, for the first time in the context of nonparametrics, and we show that they fit into this framework. Posterior contraction rates are derived in two settings. The case of Sobolev--smooth signals and $L_2$--risk is considered first, along with a lower bound result showing that the imposed form of the scalings on prior coefficients by the OT prior is necessary to get full adaptation to smoothness. Second, the broader case of Besov-smooth signals with $L_{p'}$--risks, $p' \geq 1$, is considered, and minimax posterior contraction rates, adaptive to the underlying smoothness, and including rates in the so-called {\em sparse} zone, are derived. We provide an implementation of the proposed method and illustrate our results through a simulation study.

With the rapid discovery of emergent phenomena in deep learning and large language models, understanding their cause has become an urgent need. Here, we propose a rigorous entropic-force theory for understanding the learning dynamics of neural networks trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants. Building on the theory of parameter symmetries and an entropic loss landscape, we show that representation learning is crucially governed by emergent entropic forces arising from stochasticity and discrete-time updates. These forces systematically break continuous parameter symmetries and preserve discrete ones, leading to a series of gradient balance phenomena that resemble the equipartition property of thermal systems. These phenomena, in turn, (a) explain the universal alignment of neural representations between AI models and lead to a proof of the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, and (b) reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations of sharpness- and flatness-seeking behavior of deep learning optimization. Our theory and experiments demonstrate that a combination of entropic forces and symmetry breaking is key to understanding emergent phenomena in deep learning.

We revisit the problem of ensuring strong test set performance via cross-validation, and propose a nested k-fold cross-validation scheme that selects hyperparameters by minimizing a weighted sum of the usual cross-validation metric and an empirical model-stability measure. The weight on the stability term is itself chosen via a nested cross-validation procedure. This reduces the risk of strong validation set performance and poor test set performance due to instability. We benchmark our procedure on a suite of $13$ real-world datasets, and find that, compared to $k$-fold cross-validation over the same hyperparameters, it improves the out-of-sample MSE for sparse ridge regression and CART by $4\%$ and $2\%$ respectively on average, but has no impact on XGBoost. It also reduces the user's out-of-sample disappointment, sometimes significantly. For instance, for sparse ridge regression, the nested k-fold cross-validation error is on average $0.9\%$ lower than the test set error, while the $k$-fold cross-validation error is $21.8\%$ lower than the test error. Thus, for unstable models such as sparse regression and CART, our approach improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment.

Missing data is a challenge when developing, validating and deploying clinical prediction models (CPMs). Traditionally, decisions concerning missing data handling during CPM development and validation havent accounted for whether missingness is allowed at deployment. We hypothesised that the missing data approach used during model development should optimise model performance upon deployment, whilst the approach used during model validation should yield unbiased predictive performance estimates upon deployment; we term this compatibility. We aimed to determine which combinations of missing data handling methods across the CPM life cycle are compatible. We considered scenarios where CPMs are intended to be deployed with missing data allowed or not, and we evaluated the impact of that choice on earlier modelling decisions. Through a simulation study and an empirical analysis of thoracic surgery data, we compared CPMs developed and validated using combinations of complete case analysis, mean imputation, single regression imputation, multiple imputation, and pattern sub-modelling. If planning to deploy a CPM without allowing missing data, then development and validation should use multiple imputation when required. Where missingness is allowed at deployment, the same imputation method must be used during development and validation. Commonly used combinations of missing data handling methods result in biased predictive performance estimates.

We study the spectral properties of a class of random matrices of the form $S_n^{-} = n^{-1}(X_1 X_2^* - X_2 X_1^*)$ where $X_k = Σ_k^{1/2}Z_k$, $Z_k$'s are independent $p\times n$ complex-valued random matrices, and $Σ_k$ are $p\times p$ positive semi-definite matrices that commute and are independent of the $Z_k$'s for $k=1,2$. We assume that $Z_k$'s have independent entries with zero mean and unit variance. The skew-symmetric/skew-Hermitian matrix $S_n^{-}$ will be referred to as a random commutator matrix associated with the samples $X_1$ and $X_2$. We show that, when the dimension $p$ and sample size $n$ increase simultaneously, so that $p/n \to c \in (0,\infty)$, there exists a limiting spectral distribution (LSD) for $S_n^{-}$, supported on the imaginary axis, under the assumptions that the joint spectral distribution of $Σ_1, Σ_2$ converges weakly and the entries of $Z_k$'s have moments of sufficiently high order. This nonrandom LSD can be described through its Stieltjes transform, which satisfies a system of Marčenko-Pastur-type functional equations. Moreover, we show that the companion matrix $S_n^{+} = n^{-1}(X_1X_2^* + X_2X_1^*)$, under identical assumptions, has an LSD supported on the real line, which can be similarly characterized.

We consider the problem of learning an arbitrarily-biased ReLU activation (or neuron) over Gaussian marginals with the squared loss objective. Despite the ReLU neuron being the basic building block of modern neural networks, we still do not understand the basic algorithmic question of whether one arbitrary ReLU neuron is learnable in the non-realizable setting. In particular, all existing polynomial time algorithms only provide approximation guarantees for the better-behaved unbiased setting or restricted bias setting. Our main result is a polynomial time statistical query (SQ) algorithm that gives the first constant factor approximation for arbitrary bias. It outputs a ReLU activation that achieves a loss of $O(\mathrm{OPT}) + \varepsilon$ in time $\mathrm{poly}(d,1/\varepsilon)$, where $\mathrm{OPT}$ is the loss obtained by the optimal ReLU activation. Our algorithm presents an interesting departure from existing algorithms, which are all based on gradient descent and thus fall within the class of correlational statistical query (CSQ) algorithms. We complement our algorithmic result by showing that no polynomial time CSQ algorithm can achieve a constant factor approximation. Together, these results shed light on the intrinsic limitation of gradient descent, while identifying arguably the simplest setting (a single neuron) where there is a separation between SQ and CSQ algorithms.

We study the regret in stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) with multiple agents that communicate over an arbitrary connected communication graph. We analyzed a variant of Cooperative Successive Elimination algorithm, COOP-SE, and show an individual regret bound of $O(R/ m + A^2 + A \sqrt{\log T})$ and a nearly matching lower bound. Here $A$ is the number of actions, $T$ the time horizon, $m$ the number of agents, and $R = \sum_{Δ_i > 0}\log(T)/Δ_i$ is the optimal single agent regret, where $Δ_i$ is the sub-optimality gap of action $i$. Our work is the first to show an individual regret bound in cooperative stochastic MAB that is independent of the graph's diameter. When considering communication networks there are additional considerations beyond regret, such as message size and number of communication rounds. First, we show that our regret bound holds even if we restrict the messages to be of logarithmic size. Second, for logarithmic number of communication rounds, we obtain a regret bound of $O(R / m+A \log T)$.

The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of political violence and conflict events in practice, and thereby improve our understanding of their temporal and spatial patterns, to inform preventative measures. In particular, a Bayesian, spatiotemporal variant of the Hawkes process is fitted to data gathered by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project to obtain sub-national estimates of conflict risk in South Asia over time and space. Our model can effectively estimate the risk level of these events within a statistically sound framework, with a more precise understanding of uncertainty than was previously possible. The model also provides insights into differences in behaviours between countries and conflict types. We also show how our model can be used to monitor short and long term trends, and that it is more stable and robust to outliers compared to current practices that rely on historical averages.

We formulate factorial difference-in-differences (FDID), a research design that extends canonical difference-in-differences (DID) to settings in which an event affects all units. In many panel data applications, researchers exploit cross-sectional variation in a baseline factor alongside temporal variation in the event, but the corresponding estimand is often implicit and the justification for applying the DID estimator remains unclear. We frame FDID as a factorial design with two factors, the baseline factor $G$ and the exposure level $Z$, and define effect modification and causal moderation as the associative and causal effects of $G$ on the effect of $Z$, respectively. Under standard DID assumptions of no anticipation and parallel trends, the DID estimator identifies effect modification but not causal moderation. Identifying the latter requires an additional \emph{factorial parallel trends} assumption, that is, mean independence between $G$ and potential outcome trends. We extend the framework to conditionally valid assumptions and regression-based implementations, and further to repeated cross-sectional data and continuous $G$. We demonstrate the framework with an empirical application on the role of social capital in famine relief in China.

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic finite-sample guarantees. Yet, existing methods for conformal prediction of causal effects are limited to binary/discrete treatments and make highly restrictive assumptions such as known propensity scores. In this work, we provide a novel conformal prediction method for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. We account for the additional uncertainty introduced through propensity estimation so that our conformal prediction intervals are valid even if the propensity score is unknown. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We derive finite-sample prediction intervals for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. (2) We provide an algorithm for calculating the derived intervals. (3) We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal prediction intervals in experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose conformal prediction for continuous treatments when the propensity score is unknown and must be estimated from data.

This paper studies the asymptotics of resampling without replacement in the proportional regime where dimension $p$ and sample size $n$ are of the same order. For a given dataset $(X,y)\in \mathbb{R}^{n\times p}\times \mathbb{R}^n$ and fixed subsample ratio $q\in(0,1)$, the practitioner samples independently of $(X,y)$ iid subsets $I_1,...,I_M$ of $\{1,...,n\}$ of size $q n$ and trains estimators $\hatβ(I_1),...,\hatβ(I_M)$ on the corresponding subsets of rows of $(X, y)$. Understanding the performance of the bagged estimate $\barβ = \frac1M\sum_{m=1}^M \hatβ(I_1),...,\hatβ(I_M)$, for instance its squared error, requires us to understand correlations between two distinct $\hatβ(I_m)$ and $\hatβ(I_{m'})$ trained on different subsets $I_m$ and $I_{m'}$. In robust linear regression and logistic regression, we characterize the limit in probability of the correlation between two estimates trained on different subsets of the data. The limit is characterized as the unique solution of a simple nonlinear equation. We further provide data-driven estimators that are consistent for estimating this limit. These estimators of the limiting correlation allow us to estimate the squared error of the bagged estimate $\barβ$, and for instance perform parameter tuning to choose the optimal subsample ratio $q$. As a by-product of the proof argument, we obtain the limiting distribution of the bivariate pair $(x_i^T \hatβ(I_m), x_i^T \hatβ(I_{m'}))$ for observations $i\in I_m\cap I_{m'}$, i.e., for observations used to train both estimates.

Efficient allocation is important in nature and human society, where individuals frequently compete for limited resources. The Minority Game (MG) is perhaps the simplest toy model to address this issue. However, most previous solutions assume that the strategies are provided a priori and static, failing to capture their adaptive nature. Here, we introduce the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm to MG, where individuals adjust decisions based on accumulated experience and expected rewards dynamically. We find that this RL framework achieves optimal resource coordination when individuals balance the exploitation of experience with random exploration. Yet, the imbalanced strategies of the two lead to suboptimal partial coordination or even anti-coordination. Our mechanistic analysis reveals a symmetry-breaking in action preferences at the optimum, offering a fresh solution to the MG and new insights into the resource allocation problem.

Optimal transport (OT) and Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) alignment are powerful frameworks for geometrically driven matching of probability distributions, yet their large-scale usage is hampered by high statistical and computational costs. Entropic regularization has emerged as a promising solution, allowing parametric convergence rates via the plug-in estimator, which can be computed using the Sinkhorn algorithm (or its iterations in the GW case). However, Sinkhorn's $O(n^2)$ time complexity for an $n$-sized dataset becomes prohibitive for modern, massive datasets. In this work, we propose a new computational framework for the entropic OT and GW problems that replaces the Sinkhorn step with a neural network trained via backpropagation on mini-batches. By shifting the computational load from the entire dataset to the mini-batch, our approach enables reliable estimation of both the optimal transport/alignment cost and plan at dataset sizes and dimensions far exceeding those tractable with standard Sinkhorn methods. We derive non-asymptotic error bounds for these estimates, showing they achieve minimax-optimal parametric convergence rates for compactly supported distributions. Numerical experiments confirm the accuracy of our method in high-dimensional, large-sample regimes where Sinkhorn is infeasible.

Many types of data from fields including natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics, are well represented by discrete, compositional structures such as trees, sequences, or matchings. Latent structure models are a powerful tool for learning to extract such representations, offering a way to incorporate structural bias, discover insight about the data, and interpret decisions. However, effective training is challenging, as neural networks are typically designed for continuous computation. This text explores three broad strategies for learning with discrete latent structure: continuous relaxation, surrogate gradients, and probabilistic estimation. Our presentation relies on consistent notations for a wide range of models. As such, we reveal many new connections between latent structure learning strategies, showing how most consist of the same small set of fundamental building blocks, but use them differently, leading to substantially different applicability and properties.